Nova Scotia Nominee Program Evaluation 2016

Transcription

1 Nova Scotia Office of Immigration Nova Scotia Nominee Program Evaluation 2016 Final February 2018 Group ATN Consulting Inc. Suite 100, 5663 Cornwallis Street Halifax, NS B3K 1B6 Phone: Fax:

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This evaluation of the Nova Scotia Nominee Program (NSNP) is for the period Under the terms of the Agreement for Canada-Nova Scotia Co-operation on Immigration (2007), an evaluation takes place on a five-year cycle. The NSNP was also evaluated in 2011 for the period of In total, there were 5,286 nominations during The streams included in the evaluation were: Skilled Worker (2,277) Nova Scotia Experience: Express Entry (609) Nova Scotia Demand: Express Entry (1,050); and Former streams that were accepting applications between (1,350). The 2017 evaluation specified five key objectives focused on examining 1 : The effectiveness of the NSNP in attracting and retaining immigrants to Nova Scotia, including assessment of attraction tools, numbers of applications/ nominations overall and by stream, retention of nominees overall and by stream; Their impact on the Province s population and economy, both overall figures and figures by stream; The satisfaction level of nominees and their employers with the NSNP; A better understanding of the statistical makeup of nominees by stream including demographic, employment and occupation status of nominees; and Overall NSNP effectiveness, efficiency and areas for improvement. Key areas of focus in this study were an extensive document review; a literature review and benchmarking exercise; an outreach and engagement process to secure the input of key internal/external stakeholders; design and deployment of two comprehensive online surveys to provincial nominees in the above categories and to employers; and the identification of potential areas for improvement. 1 Per the statement of work Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. i

3 The Context for this Evaluation Population aging does not affect all parts of Canada in the same way. From 2011 to 2016, the population grew more slowly in the Atlantic Provinces than elsewhere in Canada. The 2016 Census notes that the slower population growth in Atlantic Canada was due to interprovincial migration losses, lower immigration levels and lower natural increases. Nova Scotia s demographic challenges are well known and have been extensively catalogued. The ONENova Scotia Report (We Choose Now) that responds to the Report of the NS Commission on Building Our New Economy (the Ivany Report) included Immigration and Welcoming Communities as one of seven key Action Points deemed to be critical to the future success of Nova Scotia economically and socially. Notably, during 2016, immigration broadly has also been a very high-profile issue in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia s improving performance in attracting immigrants - more immigrants made Nova Scotia their home in the first six months of 2016 than in all of 2015 or in any of the past 10 years is an indicator of progress for the Nova Scotia Office of Immigration (NSOI) and for Nova Scotians. This progress also provides hope that immigration will be a key driver in offsetting the Province s unfavourable demography. The National Picture Under Canada s Constitution, immigration is recognized as a concurrent power, meaning that jurisdiction is formally shared between the federal government and the provinces. The final decisions on programs and admissions to Canada rest with the federal government. Over the past two decades, because of a series of agreements with the federal government, 11 provincial and territorial governments have implemented Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) under the Federal Economic Immigration Class. PNPs enable provinces and territories to design immigration programs according to their labour market and economic development needs. PNPs have grown to the point where they admit about one-quarter of economic immigrants. Consistent with one of their initial goals, PNPs have led to a shift in the destinations of newcomers, to the benefit of smaller provinces. Beyond immigration, the provinces also play a key role in the services associated with immigrant settlement. Immigrant settlement services operated by the provinces include employment counselling, employment bridging programs, welcoming community programs, and language training. Provincial Nominee Programs vary across the country. Because of this variation, a comparison of PNPs across the country is challenging. The focus of the jurisdictional review and benchmarking exercise during this evaluation was on examining comparable programming in the provinces of Manitoba, British Columbia (BC) and New Brunswick, with a view to identifying 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. ii

4 trends and innovations in PNP programming that may be of interest for Nova Scotia. It also focused on researching leading practice approaches related to immigrant settlement in smaller rural communities. Key conclusions arising from the jurisdictional and literature review are detailed in the report. High Level Findings This evaluation was undertaken during winter Analysis includes NSOI administrative data, data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) and the results from a survey of nominees and employers who used the NSNP between 2011 and Overall, findings show that the NSNP has been successful in attracting and retaining immigrants to Nova Scotia. Nominations increased from 518 in 2011 to 1,350 in 2016, an increase of 161%. With respect to retention, results are positive. Nearly three-quarters (73.8%) of nominees who responded to the survey are currently living in Nova Scotia and nearly nine in ten (87.3%) respondents would prefer to stay in their current community. This aligns well with calculations based on federal data indicating a 71% retention rate of nominees for the period , the latest such data available. Similar to the 2011 evaluation, survey results also show that nominees have had a positive impact on the Nova Scotia economy. Most survey respondents were employed in full-time positions, and household incomes were consistent with other Nova Scotians. Overall, there was a high level of satisfaction among nominees and employers with the work of the NSOI and with the NSNP. Satisfaction with NSOI Staff: 98.6 % of nominees were either very satisfied (77.6%) or somewhat satisfied (21%) with the NSOI staff. 92% of employers were very satisfied (59.6%) or somewhat satisfied (32.7%) with NSNP staff. Satisfaction with Process: Just over nine in ten (91.7%) nominees were either very satisfied (58.1%) or somewhat satisfied (33.7%) with the application process. Overall Ease of Process: Four out of five (80%) nominees described their overall experience with the NSNP as either very easy (25.1%) or somewhat easy (54.6%). A lower proportion of employers found the application process easy, 61.6% found the process very easy (16.4%) or somewhat easy (45.2%). Overall Satisfaction: The overall satisfaction rate for nominees was 92% and for employers was 81% Recommendations and Future Considerations While the Nova Scotia Nominee Program is performing well, the evaluation identifies areas for improvement over the next five-year period. Specific recommendations and future considerations with respect to the NSNP arising from the survey of nominees and employers, 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. iii

5 jurisdictional research and stakeholder consultations are noted below. These are provided in greater detail within the report. Suggestions from Nominees and Employers The need for reduced processing times was a recurrent theme among both employers and nominees. Both nominees and employers recommended improving the clarity of the application. They found the associated paperwork burdensome and sometimes unclear. Greater online access for nominees. Some suggested access to an online portal with an automated status check functionality enabling nominees to track their application process. Address the duplication of information requested at the provincial and federal level. Enhanced communication was highlighted by both nominees and employers including communication between the Federal immigration office and the NSOI. Some nominees felt that the availability of staff and program information could be improved. Strategic Considerations Beyond these targeted recommendations from the nominee and employer surveys, the report also addresses a range of strategic considerations for the NSOI that, in some cases, go beyond the specifics of the NSNP. They include: Monitor human resource requirements for processing applications to the NSNP to allow for adjustments in respect to human resource requirements where warranted. Maintain a human centred approach to client integration including accessibility of officers and staff. Coordinate efforts and provide seamless service delivery across government departments connected with immigration. Enhance engagement with employers and other immigration stakeholders to support the attraction and recruitment of immigrants to all areas of the province Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. iv

6 Enhance the understanding of Nova Scotians regarding the value of increased immigration. External stakeholders consulted as part of the study offered several strategic-level considerations for the Nominee Program, including o The desire to see Nova Scotia ultimately achieve a nominee agreement with the Federal Government that would enable a more highly integrated Nominee Program. o Enhanced recruitment and attraction efforts by further leveraging community partners including the extensive network of Honorary Consuls and postsecondary institutions. Conclusions Both the Province and the Federal Government are focussed on enhancing immigration. There is a broader understanding and acceptance of the importance of immigration in addressing our unfavourable demography nationally, regionally and provincially. The three-year immigration pilot under the aegis of the Atlantic Growth Strategy is an incremental Atlantic-wide initiative that speaks to this issue, while showing early signs of success. Coupled with Nova Scotia s success in having its PNP nomination cap increased over the past few years, the numbers are improving. Judged by nominees, employers, and the key performance metrics such as throughput and time to process, Nova Scotia s Nominee Program is a decided success. There is a very high level of satisfaction among both immigrants and employers participating in the program. NSOI staff are seen to be doing an outstanding job Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. v

7 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... I 1 OVERVIEW OF THE NS NOMINEE PROGRAM & EVALUATION PURPOSE The Context for this Evaluation Evaluation Methods Structure of Report LITERATURE & JURISDICTIONAL REVIEW Innovations in National Programming Provincial Nominee Programs through a Rural Lens Key Conclusions Arising from the Jurisdictional Review OUTREACH & ENGAGEMENT PROCESS Findings Arising from the Stakeholder Engagement Process Internal Stakeholders External Stakeholders Summary of Outreach HIGH-LEVEL SURVEY RESULTS AND FINDINGS Nominee Survey Results Employer Survey Results Comparison to NSNP Evaluation IMPACT AND EFFECTIVENESS Effectiveness of the NSNP in Attracting and Retaining Immigrants Retention Earnings Impact of Immigrants on the Nova Scotia Economy RECOMMENDATIONS AND FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS Recommendations Suggestions Based on Nominee and Employer Surveys Future Considerations APPENDIX A: STREAMS INCLUDED IN EVALUATION APPENDIX B: EMPLOYER SURVEY APPENDIX C: NOMINEE SURVEY Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. vi

8 1 OVERVIEW OF THE NS NOMINEE PROGRAM & EVALUATION PURPOSE Group ATN Consulting Inc. (GATN) was contracted to undertake an Evaluation of the Nova Scotia Nominee Program (NSNP) for the period Under the terms of the Agreement for Canada-Nova Scotia Co-operation on Immigration (2007) 2, an evaluation takes place on a five-year cycle. The NSNP was evaluated in 2011 for the period of This evaluation focused on three current NSNP streams (3936 nominees), as well as select closed streams (1350 nominees). In total, there were 5,286 nominations during this period. Skilled Worker (2,277) Nova Scotia Experience: Express Entry (609) Nova Scotia Demand: Express Entry (1,050); and Closed streams that were accepting applications between Community Identified, International Graduate, Regional Labour Market Demand (1,350). Figure 1 shows the number of nominees by stream 3. Figure 1: Nominees by Stream, 2011 to 2016 Appendix A provides a description of the streams included in this evaluation Source: Nova Scotia Office of Immigration via Open Data Nova Scotia 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 1

9 The statement of work for the 2017 evaluation specified five key objectives focussed on examining: The effectiveness of the NSNP in attracting and retaining immigrants to Nova Scotia, including assessment of attraction tools, numbers of applications/ nominations overall and by stream, retention of nominees overall and by stream; Their impact on the Province s population and economy, both overall figures and figures by stream; The satisfaction level of nominees and their employers with the NSNP; A better understanding of the statistical makeup of nominees by stream including demographic, employment and occupation status of nominees; and The overall NSNP effectiveness, efficiency and areas for improvement. The overarching objective is focused on supporting the development of a better understanding of the statistical makeup of nominees by stream including demographic, employment and occupation status of nominees. In completing this assignment, GATN undertook the following: An extensive document review. A literature review and benchmarking exercise examining comparable services in key provinces. An outreach and engagement process to secure the input of key stakeholders both internal to the Nova Scotia Office of Immigration and external stakeholders including immigrant serving organizations, the Premier s Advisory Committee; and Design and deployment of a comprehensive online survey to provincial nominees in the foregoing categories and to employers. 1.1 The Context for this Evaluation Globally, advanced economies are facing significant demographic challenges. The situation in Canada is even more pressing. Canada s median age is higher than the OECD average. An important corollary to this observation is that the quest for immigrants is highly competitive globally. Population aging does not affect all parts of Canada in the same way. From 2011 to 2016, the population grew more slowly in the Atlantic Provinces than elsewhere in Canada, as was the case during the two previous intercensal periods. Prince Edward Island (+1.9%) recorded the fastest increase in Atlantic Canada, followed by Newfoundland and Labrador (+1.0%) and Nova Scotia (+0.2%). The population declined 0.5% in New Brunswick, the only province or territory to 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 2

10 record a decrease from 2011 to This compares to the national growth rate of 0.96% (2016). In 2012, Canada's younger populations were found in the territories and in the Prairies, and the older populations in the Atlantic Provinces. The youngest populations in Canada were found in Nunavut (24.7 years) and the Northwest Territories (32.1 years), owing to higher fertility and lower life expectancy 5. This compares to an average age of 43.7 in Nova Scotia. Action Point #4 - Nova Scotia needs to welcome the world to our shores. In order to address our population challenges, we need much higher immigration levels to increase the number of entrepreneurs in our province and to renew our labour force. The 2016 Census notes that the slower population growth in Atlantic Canada was due to interprovincial migration losses, lower immigration levels and lower natural increases. Against these challenges, it is not an accident that the 2016 Atlantic Growth Strategy 6 includes the And that means attracting more people from other provinces and countries. Interprovincial migration for example, attracting recent immigrants or native Nova Scotians here from other provinces is another method of boosting our population. development of a three-year pilot project to admit up to 2,000 immigrants and accompanying family members to Atlantic Canada between 2017 and Nova Scotia s demographic challenges are well known. These have been extensively catalogued in the Ivany Report (The Report of the NS Commission on Building our New Economy), as well as in earlier reports. In response, the ONENova Scotia Report (We Choose Now) included Immigration and Welcoming Communities as fourth in its prescription of seven key Action Points deemed to be critical to the future success of Nova Scotia economically and socially. Specific recommendations included 7 : Increase immigration to Nova Scotia this recommendation included enhancing the Provincial Nominee Program and improving International Qualifications Recognition (IQR). Growing the number of out-of-province and international students; and Working together to create welcoming communities and workforce. Figure 2 summarizes the volume of nominations by stream and year Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 3

11 Figure 2: Nominees by Stream and Year Since the last evaluation completed on the NSNP, there have been significant changes to the Nova Scotia program including: An increase in the nomination cap from 600 in 2013 to 1,350 in Development of a new website in 2014 designed to be more welcoming, informative and user-friendly - telegraphing the value proposition Nova Scotia offers to newcomers. An internal process improvement initiative to introduce new efficiencies within the program. Implementation of an on-line application system for the NSNP in NSOI was an early adopter of federal express entry programs, launching both the Nova Scotia Demand Express Entry (NSDEE) and the Nova Scotia Experience Express Entry (NSEEE) in Introduction of the Entrepreneur Stream and International Graduate Entrepreneur Stream in Introduction of several measures to enhance program integrity and to manage and mitigate risk. Since 2013, annual provincial funding to settlement service providers has been steadily increased. Engagement of Nova Scotians and employers in meaningful discussions on the immigration system and its importance to the future of the province; and 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 4

12 Comprehensive response to the Syrian Refugee Initiative including coordination of operational planning to coordinate refugee arrival and necessary supports and services. More immigrants made Nova Scotia their home in the first six months of 2016 than in all of 2015, or in any of the past 10 years 8. This progress also offers hope that immigration will be a key driver in offsetting the Province s comparatively unfavourable demography. Notably, during 2016, immigration broadly has been a very high-profile issue in Canada. The initiative to welcome 25,000 Syrian refugees beset by war and strife within their own country and Nova Scotia s stellar response to this call to action has reinforced, for all Canadians, the fundamental importance of immigration. It is against this backdrop that this Evaluation of the Nova Scotia Nominee Program (NSNP) is being undertaken for the period Evaluation Methods In completing this evaluation, GATN undertook the following: Designed, developed and deployed an online survey of NSNP nominees. Designed, developed and deployed an online survey of employers. Designed a survey of NSOI program staff. Outreach and engagement with key stakeholders. Comprehensive database analysis and document review. A targeted jurisdictional and literature review; and Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) tax information for the period 2009 to 2013 (the most recent year available) Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 5

13 1.3 Structure of Report This report is structured as follows: Section 1 introduces the study, objectives, context and background on the work plan undertaken in its completion. Section 2 reports on the literature review and targeted jurisdictional review. It includes the examination of immigration success through a rural lens. Section 3 reports on the results of the outreach and engagement process. Section 4 provides a high-level overview of the survey results and findings. Section 5 considers the impact and effectiveness of the NSNP in attracting and retaining immigrants; and Section 6 addresses recommendations and future considerations. Background information related to the study is included in Appendix A (Streams Included in the Evaluation) while Appendix B and C, respectively, provide copies of the Employer survey and Nominee survey used in this study Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 6

14 2 LITERATURE & JURISDICTIONAL REVIEW Under Canada s Constitution, immigration is recognized as a concurrent power, meaning that jurisdiction is formally shared between the federal government and the provinces. Under this framework, the federal government has exclusive jurisdiction over naturalization and aliens, which enables it to determine the number of immigrants admitted to Canada, and the criteria against which they are selected. The federal government, however, has collaborated with the provinces to establish immigration goals and policies, though the level of cooperation has varied historically 9. Over the past two decades, through a series of agreements with the federal government, provincial and territorial governments have acquired a more significant role in the selection of immigrants, particularly economic immigrants. The first of these agreements was with the Quebec government. Since 1991, Quebec has had responsibility for administering its own immigration programs and for selecting all economic immigrants seeking to settle in the province. From the 1990 s forward, 11 provincial/territorial governments negotiated bi-lateral immigration agreements with the federal government and have initiated Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) 10. The PNPs offer immigrants an alternative gateway from the other federal economic immigration programs. PNPs enable provinces to design immigration programs to address their labour market and economic development needs 11. The federal government retains responsibility for security screening, criminal and medical admissibility and final admission. PNPs have grown to the point where they admit about one-quarter of economic immigrants. Consistent with one of their initial goals, PNPs have led to a shift in the destinations of newcomers, to the benefit of smaller provinces. In 2012, there were more than 50 PNP streams across Canada 12. Canada has what is often characterized as asymmetrical immigration. Provincial nominee programs naturally vary across the country. An important feature of the PNPs is that they provide the opportunity for individual provinces to tailor the criteria for the recruitment of nominees to meet their respective labour market requirements. Because of this variation, undertaking a comparison of PNPs across the country is challenging Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 7

15 Notwithstanding, the secondary research literature and jurisdictional review point to interesting program features and approaches to provincial nominee programming that can be both informative and potentially relevant for emulation in other jurisdictions. The focus of the review undertaken The original F/P Immigration Agreements British Columbia and Manitoba negotiated included Settlement Annexes that enabled these provinces to take nearly exclusive control of immigrant settlement services in their respective jurisdictions. during this evaluation was to examine these innovations within the context of their implications for Nova Scotia s PNP. Manitoba, British Columbia, and New Brunswick were examined to determine successes, as well as any or lessons learned that might be applied to the Nova Scotia paradigm. 2.1 Innovations in National Programming The original Federal/Provincial Immigration Agreements British Columbia and Manitoba negotiated included Settlement Annexes that gave these Provinces nearly exclusive control over settlement services. While the examination of settlement services is outside the scope of this program evaluation, this factor is, nonetheless, relevant in the context of the jurisdictional review because the literature and, indeed some stakeholders consulted during this evaluation, point to these integrated agreements as having been an important factor in creating the early success these jurisdictions were able to achieve in the development of their nominee programs. Research suggests that one of the benefits of this type of agreement with Manitoba and British Columbia (BC) has been its impact on enabling these jurisdictions to introduce and manage a continuum of flexible programs for newcomers that are responsive to local circumstances and are coordinated with other provincial and municipal programs crucial to integration, such as education 13. BC has a new agreement with the Federal Government that does not include the foregoing provisions and Manitoba s agreement expired in 2014 and was not renewed. The largest share of provincial nominees landed in Manitoba in 2014, reaching 25.6 per cent (12,187) of the 47,618 immigrants who came to Canada through a PNP 14. Notable achievements of the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) include 15 : The MPNP has contributed to over 70% of all immigration to Manitoba and a 10.5 % population increase since An average of 20% of provincial nominees choose regional destinations outside of Winnipeg Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 8

16 Manitoba Provincial nominees have high labour market participation rates. Manitoba business nominees have created 828 business start-ups or purchases since 2003; and Historically, Manitoba PNP has enjoyed high retention rates. Key findings related to the review of Manitoba s PNP program include the following: Manitoba was the first province to aggressively use the PNP to attract newcomers. The MPNP has consistently been the vehicle for 70% or more of the province s new immigrants, contributing to the continuing increase in population growth referenced above. The MPNP has been held out as a leading practice model throughout the country. There are several factors that are consistently linked to this success. These include the following: o A consistent observation in program evaluations conducted on the success of the MPNP is the Manitoba government s decision to work closely with community groups interested in bringing in immigrants. There is a strong focus on the broad engagement of stakeholders, including employers, communities and organizations representing businesses in the immigration process. This underlies the importance of immigration to both economic and community development. o One of the hallmarks of the MPNP is its integrated continuum of service from selection through the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (and other programs), pre-arrival (Working in Manitoba Tool, Qualifications Recognition and other planning resources), and centralized registration, referral and employment services through Manitoba Start. Through the Department s Employer Direct Strategy, employers can approach either Labour and Immigration or Manitoba Start to meet their hiring needs. This integrated continuum of services is widely seen as an innovation in the Manitoba approach to its Nominee Program and a best practice. The Manitoba model more closely exemplifies an integrated or whole of government approach to immigrant attraction, settlement and management. Manitoba has also been highly successful in attracting immigrants to rural areas of the province, an achievement that is discussed in greater detail below 16. o Manitoba offers nominees an enhanced MPNP online functionality including an automated Status Check enabling applicants to the Nominee Program to track their progress Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 9

17 o As noted, international qualifications recognition is an important part of this integrated continuum of services and is important to immigrant success. Led by the Office of the Manitoba Fairness Commissioner, working with regulatory bodies, Manitoba places a strong emphasis on ensuring that internationallyexperienced workers achieve certification in their occupations as soon as possible and in key professional areas including engineering, agrology, pharmacy, architecture, dentistry and engineering technology. The Recognition Counts micro loans program also continues to provide accessible, low-interest loans for immigrants in regulated professions so that they can achieve full certification. Leveraging these features, Manitoba is presently undertaking a renewal of the MPNP. This renewal effort has several important dimensions and channels many of the abovenoted features that have created successful outcomes in the past including 18 : o A labour market strategy for immigration including partnerships with industry and education that build pathways to employment. o Working with employers, sector councils and training institutions to better prepare and match international students and skilled worker nominees to indemand jobs. o Skilled worker selection that emphasizes early and strong attachment to the labour market. o Priority nomination for high potential applicants able to establish early and strong labour market attachments in all regions of Manitoba. o Priority nomination of high potential applicants able to establish job-creating or maintaining, value-added businesses in all regions of Manitoba; and o Expand options and increase the numbers of Manitoba employers hiring potential nominees and recent newcomers. By comparison, British Columbia has not been as closely studied as Manitoba. Hence, there is less information available. Not unlike other Canadian jurisdictions, the province has been vigorous in its endorsement of immigration as being important to its future prosperity. Operating under a similar devolution model as Manitoba during the 2000 s, BC has been considered an innovator and experimenter in a wide variety of areas associated with immigrant attraction and retention. BCPNP has an online portal 19 to facilitate access to prospective immigrants Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 10

18 In 2016, BC launched an innovative points system for immigration to Canada through the BCPNP 20. The Skills Immigration Registration System (SIRS) is used to prioritize newcomers through most BCPNP categories and fast-track their arrival to the province. The system provides candidates with a score based on the information they provide upon registration. This score determines whether a candidate receives an Invitation to Apply for nomination from BCNP through the Skills Immigration and Express Entry B.C. streams. This is similar to the system NSOI presently uses with its entrepreneur streams. Applicants submit an expression of interest (EOI), receive a score and are later drawn from the pool of EOIs based on their score. New Brunswick s PNP is similar to Nova Scotia s. New Brunswick is the only officially bilingual province in Canada, with about 30 percent of the population speaking French as a first language. 2.2 Provincial Nominee Programs through a Rural Lens Canada has struggled to entice new immigrants away from cities. Many immigrants are drawn to Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver - the so-called MTV cities. In 2015, more than three-quarters of permanent residents to Canada landed in just seven cities Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Winnipeg. Small cities and towns in Canada receive only a small portion of immigrants. As noted in the adjoining text box, rural regeneration is an urgent agenda in Canada, as well as many other As their populations age and young Western economies. It is a priority within the ONENova adults move away, small cities and Scotia Report, We Choose Now. towns across Canada are increasingly looking to immigration as a way to In 2008, the number of workers leaving rural Canada rejuvenate their workforce and outstripped those arriving, partly because local youth left expand their tax base. for major cities, according to the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation 21. The situation is urgent in But many struggle to attract people Atlantic Canada, where population growth from 2011 to and convince them to stay was near zero in all provinces except Prince Edward Island. That s not the case in Winkler, where more than half of the people who ve The need to attract immigrants to rural areas epitomizes immigrated there since the late 1990s another Canadian trend in immigration - one that has have made it their long-term home. small communities taking a lead in immigrant attraction das-small-cities-and-rural-areas-desperate-forimmigrants and settlement. In recent years, smaller cities have taken a much more proactive role in immigrant attraction, collaborating with provincial and federal governments. In 2013, Moncton developed its own Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 11

19 immigration plan. Now, the city s immigration strategy officer is engaged in career fairs focused on getting employers to hire immigrants and mounting projects to urge international students to stay after graduation. In northern B.C., Prince George mounted a social media campaign in 2013 to attract skilled immigrants who had recently arrived in Vancouver and could work on LNG projects expected to take root in the region. In other cases, businesses in partnership with small cities have used the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, combined with provincial immigrant nominations, to settle newcomers who wouldn t have made it through the federal system - either because they aren t sufficiently fluent in English or are not appropriately educated. Manitoba has been recognized nationally for its success in settling new Canadians in rural communities using its Provincial Nominee Program. Manitoba s Mennonite towns, such as Steinbach, Morden and Winkler, have been successful at attracting German-speaking newcomers from Mexico, Germany and other countries, while the hog processing plants in Brandon and Neepawa have lured immigrants from China, Colombia, Ukraine and South Korea 22. Their experience is noteworthy for other jurisdictions attempting to leverage the positive benefits of immigration in rural areas. While access to jobs and a familiar ethnic community are important when attracting and retaining immigrants, a continuum of other services housing, health, local churches and language training opportunities - are also essential to successful settlement and integration. The town of Winkler offers a useful case study. Winkler has never been a stranger to migration. It s recent immigration boom began as a coordinated response to the community s economic needs and was launched in concert with the creation of Manitoba s Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). Numerous jobs were unfilled in the community in the mid-1990s, compromising immediate human resource requirements and jeopardizing business expansion, particularly in manufacturing and the agricultural sector. This became known as the Winkler Initiative and was essentially the first manifestation of a provincial nominee program in which immigrants could arrive based on their meeting provincial selection criteria, with the province assuming responsibility for care after arrival. The Winkler Initiative resulted in the arrival of 50 German families within a few short years. The arrival of 50 families had been predicted, but their large family size had not. The incoming families tended to have many school-aged children, soon causing schools to be over capacity. Total numbers reached to more than Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 12

20 1,000 persons, in a town of fewer than 9,000 residents at that time. As this population grew and grew in age, a new high school was built in Winkler is now Manitoba s sixth-largest city (as of 2011) and the second fastest growing city out of nine in the province. The Winkler initiative illustrates the importance of coordination in achieving successful results in integrating nominees into a welcoming community. In Winkler, the Chamber of Commerce formed an Immigration Integration Committee involving the city, province, economic development practitioners and the Chamber. The foregoing examples offer insight into several successful approaches across Canada of welcoming newcomers in rural areas. Lessons learned from these case studies underscore the following: The potential for immigration to reverse the destructive impact of rural depopulation. The importance of local leadership in rural communities. The importance of partnerships and collaboration between provincial and federal officials responsible for immigration as well as municipal level government, communities, educators, ethno-cultural organizations and immigrant settlement agencies Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 13

21 2.3 Key Conclusions Arising from the Jurisdictional Review Key conclusions arising from the jurisdictional and literature review include the following: A hallmark of the leading practice models in relation to Provincial Nominee Programming profiled in this review has been their ability in mobilizing an integrated or whole of government approach. The literature underscores the importance of partnerships to enhanced immigration outcomes, both those within the province and in the attraction and recruitment process. Jurisdictions are interested in using Provincial Nominee Programs to assist in rural revitalization. There are successful models and case studies nationally that offer valuable insights and can inform the design of individual program initiatives; and An important take-away from the successful Manitoba model is its very targeted and strategic approach to their nominee program. They have succeeded by reaching out to communities with a similar ethno-cultural background within the province, for example, attracting German immigrants to predominantly rural Mennonite communities Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 14

22 3 OUTREACH & ENGAGEMENT PROCESS The evaluation of the Nova Scotia Nominee Program (NSNP) included an extensive outreach and engagement process to secure the input of key stakeholders - both external and internal to the Nova Scotia Office of Immigration. This was in addition to the online surveys undertaken with immigrants and their employers detailed in Section 4. The outreach and consultation captured qualitative input on the functioning of the NSNP and its impact. From a methodological perspective, the outreach and consultation process was designed to determine the perception of stakeholders on how the NSNP is working and to identify possible areas of improvement. To support this effort, several stakeholder consultation guides were developed customized to each audience. Collectively, these guides were focussed on addressing the key thematic areas of importance to the evaluation of the NSNP. Issues of interest explored with key stakeholders included: The overall effectiveness of the Provincial Nominee Program based on their experiences, including assessment of attraction tools. The contribution that immigrants make to the social and economic fabric of the province. Their sense of how immigrants rate their experiences through the Nominee Program and any anecdotal information they may have on nominee interactions with the Nova Scotia Office of Immigration and NSOI staff; and Suggestions for improvements, including process, program marketing and any other areas that would improve the nominee experience. The stakeholder outreach and engagement strategy targeted the following: The NSOI senior management team. An extensive workshop session with Nominee Officers, including preparation and deployment of a pre-session online survey. A bi-lateral meeting with the NSOI compliance officer. Outreach to the Premier s Advisory Council on Immigration; and Discussion with community partners including Immigrant Services Association of Nova Scotia (ISANS), Fédération acadienne de la Nouvelle-Écosse (FANE), YREACH Programs (YMCA) and an immigration lawyer Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 15

23 3.1 Findings Arising from the Stakeholder Engagement Process The findings arising from the stakeholder engagement process, categorized under internal and external stakeholders, are outlined below: Internal Stakeholders Program staff demonstrated a strong awareness of the importance of immigration in offsetting the Province s unfavorable demography and a high level of commitment to the mission and mandate of the office. The NSOI has experienced considerably increased volume within this evaluation period. As a result, the office has undertaken a major effort to implement process improvements designed to improve processing times and overall efficiency. While process improvements can make the system more efficient, resourcing requires careful ongoing attention, particularly, considering the focus on the ambitious goal of significantly increasing the level of immigration to the Province and the introduction of the new pilot program under the Atlantic Growth Strategy. In terms of program efficiency, the working session with Nominee Officers identified several areas of potential further program process improvements advanced from their perspective. These include the following: o Enhanced information and understanding of results is important to Nominee officers. Officers expressed the view that having regular access to data and information on nominee results and outcomes would be helpful in better understanding their contribution, and the results being achieved, reinforcing the positive outcomes being achieved with the NSNP. o Increased use of electronic communication/interaction and processing of nominee files is seen to be important to enhancing system efficiency and responsiveness. Staff report that the applications process and file maintenance is very paper intensive and they would like to see it streamlined with more seamless and integrated electronic data sharing across platforms/ processing steps within the NSOI. Nominee officers expressed the view that moving to an electronic file system would likely enhance productivity and positively impact processing time. o Other issues identified by the Nominee Officers include the need to make enhancements to the LaMPSS system, the case management system used to administer the NSNP. Issues in respect to LaMPSS include redundancy of information in forms, challenges associated with uploading documents and batch uploading and downloading of documents. We note that this sentiment is consistent with other program evaluations that the team has undertaken where LaMPSS is often used by program administrators and participants as a file transfer platform, rather than something that allows adding data points that 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 16

24 could then be used for more dynamic analysis. o Officers note the importance of maintaining up to date information of target occupations in Nova Scotia. Access to current labour market information (LMI) is important, as is LMI targeted to newcomers. Timely, accurate and geographically-based information in usable formats are important aspects of an effective LMI strategy to support immigrants. Achieving this involves both the federal and provincial governments. It is also an area where coordination with the Department of Labour and Advanced Education (LAE) will be important. With the increased demand on program resources and the increasing number of nominees being processed, Nominee Officers have clear suggestions on design features that they believe must be consistently incorporated into the process improvements being made, built around the following principles: o Efficiency o Optimal use of technology o Integrity o Fairness/balance/flexibility o Clarity of written documents o Additional on-line resources o Timeliness and responsiveness; and o Client-focused orientation. In exploring nominee officers perspectives on the effectiveness of the NSNP in attracting and retaining immigrants to Nova Scotia, they affirmed their belief that the NSOI is generally doing a good job in attraction and retention. In terms of attraction tools the website, international promotion and marketing and the focus on Francophone markets nominee officers perceive that the NSOI is effective in marketing the Province in a highly competitive environment. Nominee officers believe that engagement with the employer community is key to job placement and retention. Internal staff strongly support increased efforts to engage the employer community through activities like a provincial roadshow to inform employers of the value immigrants would bring to their workforce. This is seen to be particularly important at a time when some employers are having difficulty finding employees and some sectors are reporting skill shortages and challenges in recruiting talent. Rural depopulation is likely a contributing factor to these shortages. Employer engagement will be an important factor in the success of the Atlantic Immigration Pilot, as employers must be formally designated to participate in the pilot; and As is the case with all stakeholders, NSOI staff believe that ongoing promotion of the value of immigration is necessary to ensure that Nova Scotians understand its importance to the future prosperity of the Province Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 17

25 3.1.2 External Stakeholders The focus of the discussion with external stakeholders was on the NSNP and the interview guides designed for the key informant interviews focussed on the NSNP. Not unexpectedly, however, some external stakeholders also offered their thoughts on immigration more broadly. Hence, some of the comments may appear to go beyond the scope of this evaluation. They are, nonetheless, included here for their relevance to the broader mandate of the NSOI. External stakeholders are laudatory of the progress being made with the NSNP and are generally very positive about the program. Overall, they feel that the program is performing well. Stakeholders report that the staff of the NSOI show real commitment to the program and that part of their success relates to their ability to formulate a strong and trusting relationship with their federal counterparts. Stakeholders speak to the success of the program and note that most provincial nominees are becoming established economically, a finding that is borne out in the evaluation survey data. This finding speaks to the economic impact of the program. That said, stakeholders believe that the shared or concurrent jurisdiction across federal and provincial governments complicates matters both for the immigrants and for program management. This view is broadly shared and, in fact, is discussed in many of the evaluations of NPs reviewed as part of the secondary research undertaken during this evaluation. Many point to the improvements some provinces have been able to engender under previous enhanced agreements (i.e. Manitoba and British Columbia) where greater responsibility accrues to the province specifically for settlement services. Notwithstanding its fundamentally unique situation, Quebec is also frequently held out as a model. A few stakeholders suggested that Nova Scotia should seek an immigration agreement more in line with the provisions of these enhanced agreements, ultimately enabling greater control of the broad range of outcomes. Many stakeholders consulted, echoed the findings of the Panel on Employment Challenges of New Canadians appointed by the former minister of Employment and Social Development Canada in the fall of Collectively, stakeholders understand the importance of helping immigrants find work faster in jobs commensurate with their abilities and experience. This requires: o The right skills for newcomers o The right attitude for stakeholders o The right information for newcomers; and o The right place to settle 23. At a time when many Nova Scotia SME business owners are seeking succession from their businesses, some stakeholders express the view that more needs to be done to attract business investment and support to immigrant entrepreneurs. While the NSNP Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 18

26 Entrepreneur streams are not part of this evaluation, this observation may be of value to the NSOI in respect to its broader mandate. Stakeholders also make the point that Nova Scotia must optimize its partnerships in the nominee attraction process. As an example, leveraging the Honorary Consul network is seen to be a progressive approach. These partnership opportunities also extend to communities urban and rural which are so influential in the successful integration of immigrants in their new homes. Stakeholders rightly point out the advantages of retaining international students and leveraging the reach of our post-secondary education leaders and facilities for attracting and retaining this population. Nova Scotia has achieved considerable success in attracting international students and has launched two pilot programs to encourage retention Study and Stay (EduNova) and Stay (Edu Nova). Also, NSOI offers pathways targeted to international graduates including the NS Experience Express Entry Program. Stakeholders agree with the recent efforts to encourage more international students to settle permanently in Nova Scotia. International graduates are generally more familiar with the culture, their language skills are often superior and they require less in the way of settlement services. As a recurrent theme in the consultation, stakeholders believe that Nova Scotians in general continue to require more education around the importance and value of immigration. Some point to the need to continue to vigorously dispel some of the myths around immigration (e.g., immigrants are taking our jobs). Stakeholders assert that this could be accomplished through proactive promotional and educational campaigns. Publicly reporting on progress, outcomes and results would also be helpful in knowledge mobilization around immigration. Profiling success stories is also pointed to as a viable approach to attitude change. Stakeholders see immigration as a key to assisting in rural revitalization and addressing rural depopulation. This is a particularly important imperative in Nova Scotia. As explored in Chapter 2, there are best practices across the country to be emulated in this regard. A hallmark of these is the strong collaborative effort among governments, communities, the employer community and organizations that serve immigrants. Several of the community-based agencies that are partners with NSOI are already leading this effort and are indispensable to ongoing success and future growth of rural settlement. Based on the findings of this review, these organizations, though thin on the ground, are strongly aligned with the mission and mandate to enhance the number of nominees locating in rural communities. Stakeholders are broadly supportive of the immigration pilot under the Atlantic Growth Strategy and express support for its inclusion under this innovative umbrella initiative. For many, this approach signals a recognition by senior levels of government of the importance of immigration overall to the Atlantic Region s future and its economy Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 19

27 One of the goals of the Provincial Nominee Program is supporting and assisting the development of minority language communities in NS. The Fédération acadienne de la Nouvelle-Écosse (FANE) is keenly interested in attracting more French-speaking nominees and their families. FANE reports success in helping these nominees integrate in smaller, predominantly French-speaking communities, thereby contributing to rural revitalization. FANE would like to see an increased focus on attracting French-speaking immigrants to Nova Scotia; and Both the national literature and local stakeholders strongly advocate for a shared responsibility among all partners in helping immigrants secure employment. This means that enhanced collaboration among employers, immigrant-serving organizations and governments is key to optimizing outcomes. At a time when the recruitment and management of talent is so important, the nominee program provides the employer community with a deeper and more diverse talent pool. 3.2 Summary of Outreach Overall, stakeholders internal and external are proud of the success achieved by the NSNP. They also are clear in pointing out areas for possible improvement. A recurrent theme throughout was the importance of ongoing public education and the need to continue to enhance understanding around the importance of immigration. The many useful suggestions arising from stakeholder input will be curated and included in Section 6 Recommendations and Future Considerations Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 20

28 4 HIGH-LEVEL SURVEY RESULTS AND FINDINGS GATN designed and deployed two surveys to secure optimal feedback from both nominees and employers. These were subsequently approved by the NSOI. This section of the report provides a high-level summary of the results of the two surveys undertaken as part of the primary research into the Nova Scotia Nominee Program. The two surveys provided the nominee and employer stakeholder groups the opportunity to contribute their perspectives on the performance of the program, among other dimensions. The findings are presented in the sections below. 4.1 Nominee Survey Results The Nominee Survey was designed in consultation with the Nova Scotia Office of Immigration and, for consistency of results, was adapted from a nominee survey used as part of the 2011 evaluation. However, modifications were required to ensure alignment of the questions with the more recent nominee streams. Nominees were sent an outlining the purpose of the study and each contained a survey link (URL) that was unique to that nominee. The nominee then had to choose to click the link and further choose to participate in the survey (popup and other forms of in-pagepromotion were not used). Participation was incentive-based: those who provided responses had the option to enter their name into a random draw for a gift card valued at $100. The online survey was deployed on February 16 th, 2017 and was closed on March 5 th, The invitation was sent to over 5,100 nominee addresses accumulated by NSOI since The result of the 5,151 s were as follows: 4,164 opened (80.8%) 800 unopened (15.5%) 150 bounced (2.9%); and 37 opted out. At the close of the survey, 2,309 nominees had responded (46% response rate 24 ), with 1,980 providing complete responses (reached the end of the survey), resulting in an 85.8% completion rate. Survey results allow for statistically reliable analysis of the findings with the following confidence levels based on total responses (2,309) is +/- 1.52% 19 times out of 20. based on only completed responses (1,980) is +/- 1.73% 19 times out of Response Rate = 2,309/(5, ) 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 21

29 Survey Respondents Compared to Population of Nominees Because survey participants volunteered to participate in the online survey, the resulting sample is not random. The tables below provide a comparison of the NSNP population from and survey respondents by NSNP stream and sex. In most cases, survey respondents closely match the nominee population. One area of note, nominees from the Community Identified stream are under represented in the survey respondent group. Nominee Survey Stream Population Survey Respondents Community Identified 11% 4% Skilled Worker 43% 47% Family Business Worker 1% 1% International Graduate 10% 6% Regional Labour Market Demand 3% 3% NS Demand Express Entry 20% 19% NS Experience Express Entry 12% 16% Other/Don t Know --- 4% Sex Population Survey Respondents Male 65% 63% Female 35% 36% 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 22

30 Profile of Nominees Nearly half (47.3%) of all survey respondents immigrated to Nova Scotia under the Skilled Worker stream. One in five (19%) immigrated under the Nova Scotia Demand stream and 15.9% immigrated under the Nova Scotia Experience stream. Program Awareness: Half of all nominees who responded to the survey (51.4%) learned about the NSNP from the NSOI website. Just over a third (36.3%) of the nominees found out about the NSNP from a friend or family member Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 23

31 Figure 3: Method of Learning About NSNP, by Stream Most (58.7%) nominees were living in Nova Scotia when they applied to the NSNP. Two out of five (41.3%) were not living in Nova Scotia at the time. Of the nominees not living in NS when they applied and who provided an arrival year, most indicated they arrived in 2016 (57%), 2015 (20%) and 2014 (7%). The three largest groups of nominees surveyed had citizenship from India (28.2%), the Philippines (18.6%) and China (10.3%) Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 24

32 More than half of nominees (56.8%) resided outside of their country of citizenship when they made their application to the NSNP. The remaining 43.2% were resident in their country of citizenship at the time. The majority of (95%) nominees reported English as their first official language (in Canada), while 1.6% indicated that their first official language was French. The remaining 3.4% indicated an official language that was not French or English Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 25

33 Choosing NS 73.8 % of nominees were living in Nova Scotia at the time of the survey. Nearly half (47.8%) of nominees said a job was the primary reason for choosing Nova Scotia. Over a quarter (26.4%) said it was lifestyle. Themes among the other reasons given by respondents included growing economy of the province, ease of the immigration process, Shambhala community, climate, ocean, safe and peaceful place to raise a family. Of those nominees who lived in Nova Scotia at the time of the survey, 75.8% lived in the HRM. The CBRM (3.8%) was the leading area outside of Halifax. Among those who settled in Nova Scotia, the majority of respondents (85%) said that Halifax and the surrounding metropolitan area was their first destination. Outside of the HRM, CBRM (4.81%) and Truro (2.8%) were the most common first settlement communities Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 26

34 Most (78.4%) nominees reported they have lived in one place in Nova Scotia since they arrived. 21.6% of survey respondents have lived in more than one community in Nova Scotia since arriving. Among those who resided in more than one location, most lived in the HRM at some point. Other communities mentioned were CBRM, Kentville, New Glasgow, Truro, Wolfville and Antigonish Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 27

35 Living in Other Provinces Nine in ten nominees (93.5%) have not lived in another province since being nominated. The remaining 6.5% lived in another province since their nomination. Of the nominees currently living outside of Nova Scotia, two thirds would prefer to move to NS. After Nova Scotia, the next most preferred residence is Ontario (12%). 63% of nominees not living in the province left Nova Scotia for a job opportunity. Other common reasons for leaving Nova Scotia were family or friends elsewhere (17.9%) or higher wages (19.3%). Some respondents also mentioned job transfers and an illness in the family as reasons for leaving NS. Of those nominees currently not living in NS, 54% said they currently live in Ontario, while 24% were in Alberta and 7% in British Columbia. Reasons to Stay in Community: Availability of job opportunities was the leading factor (78.1%) for nominees choosing to remain in their current community. Other common factors are safety (58.2%), welcoming community (51.7%) and health and wellness services (41.3%). Nine out of ten (87.3%) nominees said they would prefer to stay in their current community. The remaining 12.7% indicated they would prefer not to stay in their current community. Employment Overview Nearly nine in ten (87.5%) of all nominees said they were employed at the time of the survey. One in ten (11.5%) were not currently employed, while 3.2% were self-employed (percentages add to more than 100% since some nominees were both employed and operating their own business). Of those who were employed, 92.1% were employed full-time, while 5.2% were employed Nearly nine in ten (87.5%) of all part-time. nominees were employed. Of those who were self-employed, most (92.9%) started their own business, while the remaining 7.1% purchased a business. Three quarters of the self-employed nominees hired staff. 70% of survey respondents who came to Nova Scotia with a job-offer remain with the same employer. Of those who left their job with their original employer, 54.8% reported a new job as the reason, while 5% were laid off and 5% returned to school. Another 5% reported they became self-employed. Among the reasons specified as other were a change in life circumstance, business closure and the expiry of a contract. The incidence of unemployment with survey respondents was very low. Of the 869 nominees that were still living in Nova Scotia, 36 were unemployed and 20 of these were looking for work. Most nominees (85.2%) have not had periods of unemployment since their nomination Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 28

36 Fewer than one in five (14.8%) nominees have experienced unemployment since being nominated. Nearly one in five (17%) nominees plan to start a business within five years. One in five nominees (20.7%) expect be in the same job. Three in ten hope to be promoted (28.1%) or working in a related occupation (27.1%). Application Process Four out of five (78%) nominees did not use a paid representative, while the remaining 22.1% used this service (includes consultants and lawyers). Nine in ten (87.9%) nominees completed the application themselves. Of those who completed the application themselves, three quarters (75.4%) of nominees reported the application to be very easy (22.4%) or somewhat easy (53%) to complete. Just under a quarter (22.6%) found the application form somewhat difficult, while 1.8% described it as very difficult. Of those who reported the application to be difficult to complete, 78% cited the collection of documents as a factor. Four in ten (40.8%) cited problems with understanding the form, while 25.2% found submitting the completed application (electronically or by mail) difficult. Source of Information Nearly nine in ten (87.6%) nominees used the Nova Scotia Immigration website as a source of information on the NSNP. The second most popular information source was family and/or friends (42.7%), followed by information from a consultant, lawyer or employer (29.2%). Assistance from NSNP Staff Six in ten (61.5%) nominees communicated with NSNP staff during the application process. The remaining nominees did not communicate with NSNP staff or were unsure. Virtually all nominees were either very satisfied (77.6%) or somewhat satisfied (21%) with the NSNP staff. Only 1.2% were somewhat unsatisfied or very unsatisfied. Of those who communicated with NSNP staff, 87.8% used while 42.7% phoned. A further 15.5% communicated with NSNP staff in person. The vast majority of nominees (95.4%) who communicated with NSNP staff received the assistance or information they needed. Only 2.7% did not receive the assistance or information that they needed. A quarter of respondents (24%) reported that NSNP staff took less than a day to respond, while 43.8% waited between 1 and 3 days. The remaining 27.3% indicated that it took over three days to obtain the information or assistance they needed from NSNP staff Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 29

37 Virtually all nominees surveyed were either very satisfied (77.6%) or somewhat satisfied (21%) with the NSNP staff. Only 1.2% were somewhat unsatisfied or very unsatisfied. Overall Perspective Most nominees were either very satisfied (58.1%) or somewhat satisfied (33.7%) with the application process. Only 7.8% reported being somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. The equates to a 92% satisfaction rate. Four out of five (80%) nominees described their overall experience with the NSNP as either very easy (25.1%) or somewhat easy (54.6%). Of the remaining nominees, 17% described their overall experience as somewhat difficult and 2.1% as very difficult. Reasons given for their difficult experience include the level of detail that was required in the application process, the level of difficulty associated with the terminology, reliance on slow mail service, lack of feedback and the timliness of feedback on information submitted. In some cases, nominees felt that the requirements and documents requested by NSOI changed during the process. Four in ten (43.6%) nominees waited less than 8 weeks to receive a decision of the NSOI. Just over half (52.1%) reported that the NSOI decision took longer than 8 weeks. The remaining 4.6% did not know. Education and Training The majority (91.8%) of nominees had some level of post-secondary training as follows - PhD (2.4%), Master s (23.1%), Bachelor s degree (40%), college diploma (9.5%) and trade certificate or diploma (5.1%). Only 6% of nominees surveyed had no postsecondary education. Just under two thirds of nominees (62.6%) indicated their foreign credentials were recognized in Nova Scotia. Of the 8.6% of nominees whose credentials were not recognized in Nova Scotia, more common explanations included planning to or in the process of receiving certification, enrolled in a bridging program or training/upgrade, or have not yet arrived in Nova Scotia. The remaining respondents said this question was not applicable or did not know if their credentials were recognized. One in five (21.6%) nominees had taken language training since arriving in Nova Scotia. The remaining 78.4% had not taken any language training since they arrived in the province. Nearly three in ten nominees (28.8%) had taken training or education since arriving in Nova Scotia. Personal Profile Just under two thirds (62.5%) of survey respondents were male, while 36.3% identified as female. Half (52.7%) of survey respondents reported that over 90% of total household income comes from their income. Three quarters (76.5%) of nominees surveyed indicated that at least 50% of their total household income comes from them. Only 6.4% of nominees had 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 30

38 no work based employment income. Four in ten (42.4%) nominees financially support family abroad. The remaining 48.1% did not send financial support to family abroad, while 9.5% declined to respond. A quarter (24.5%) of nominees lived alone, while the majority (75.5%) lived with others. Family Profile Eight in ten (79.6%) nominees were living with a spouse or common-law partner. Seven in ten (70.4%) nominees were living with children under the age of 12, while 43.6% lived with children between the ages 12 to 18. Three in five (59.5%) nominees who had partners indicated that their partners were working. The most common reason for a spouse not working related to employment 23.7% said there were a lack of employment opportunities and 22.9% said they were not able to find a job in his/her field. A frequent response was also taking care of family at 31.9%. The most common reason specified under other, was the spouse only arrived recently or had not yet arrived. 4.2 Employer Survey Results As part of the comprehensive evaluation, a survey was conducted with employers who participated in the Nominee Program within the period of the study. The survey was designed in consultation with the NSOI, leveraging the 2010 questionnaire, with modification to examine specific areas of interest and/or to match specific attributes of more recent streams. Employers were sent an outlining the purpose of the study, with each containing a survey link (URL) that was unique to that employer. This allowed the team to be more strategic in terms of sending subsequent reminder notifications. Participation was voluntary. Employers had to choose to click the link and then choose to participate in the survey. As with the nominee survey, a modest incentive was used to encourage participation. Those who responded were eligible for a random draw for a gift card valued at $100. Eight hundred employer s were compiled from NSOI records. The online survey was deployed via beginning on February 15th, 2017 and was closed on March 5th, During that time, 150 employers provided responses and 97 completed the questionnaire (they reached the end of the survey). Of the 800 s to organizations: 372 were opened (46.5%) 345 were unopened (43.1%) 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 31

39 78 s bounced (9.8%); and 5 opted out (0.6%). With a total response of 150 and 97 completed responses this is a response rate of 21% 25 and a 65% completion rate. The survey provides NSOI with sufficient data on a range of employer characteristics to enable a statistically reliable analysis of the findings with the specific confidence intervals (CIs) as follows: CI based on total responses (150): +/- 7.22% 19 times out of 20. CI based on completed responses (97): +/- 9.33% 19 times out of 20; and CI based on nominees represented by employers (701): +/- 3.44% 19 times out of 20. Survey Respondents Compared to Population of Employers Because survey participants volunteered to participate in the online survey, the resulting sample is not random. The table below compares the employer-backed streams used by the total population of employers from and employer survey respondents. The table shows survey respondents include a higher proportion of employers who used the Family Business Worker stream than the total population of employers. Employer-backed Stream Population Survey Respondents Skilled Worker 97% 80% Family Business Worker 3% 9% Other/Don t Know % Business Profile Most (51%) businesses were in Halifax, while 21.1% were in Dartmouth, 10.2% in Bedford, 12.2% were located elsewhere in HRM Other communities included Truro (12.2%) CBRM (7.5%), New Glasgow (7.5%), Kentville (5.4%), and Yarmouth (3.4%). Businesses most commonly (32.2%) described themselves as hospitality, while 11% were IT and 8.9% healthcare. Mentions in the other category (28.8%) included a mix of business types. Examples include retail operations, seafood processing, manufacturing and other service based organizations. Businesses were most often (24.1%) operating in the accommodation and food services industry. One in ten (11%) were in the professional, scientific, and technical industry, while 6.9% were involved in health care and social assistance. Program Participation and Awareness Most employers who responded to the survey used the NSNP in 2016 (141 nominees hired) and 2014 when 157 nominees were hired. In 2015, employers who responded to 25 Response rate: 150 respondents/( bounced s) 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 32

40 the survey hired 118 nominees and with 112 hires in 2011, 95 in 2013, and 78 in The largest share of businesses (37.7%) learned about the Nominee Program through the Nova Scotia Immigration website, while 36% learned about the program from the employee. One quarter (23.7%) learned about the program from other employers or business owners, with 16.7% learning from Nova Scotia Office of Immigration staff Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 33

41 The largest share of businesses (38.1%) learned about the nominee(s) they hired when the employee directly applied. One quarter (26.5%) learned about the nominee(s) they hired through referral or word of mouth, while 23.9% said that the employee already was working for them. Just under a quarter (22.1%) learned about the nominee(s) they hired through advertising in the media/job Bank/online career website. The largest share of employers (34.2%) indicated that employees had citizenship in the Philippines, while 18.4% of employers hired employees with Indian citizenship. Three in twenty employers (15.8%) had hires with citizenship in China, while the UK registered at 12.3%. The majority of employers (67.9%) have not used international recruitment efforts (the remaining 32.1% employed these methods). Of the employers who used international recruitment efforts, the largest share of employers (32.4%) used a recruitment agency, while 21.6% used a consultant. One in five (18.9%) worked with NSOI to promote jobs at an international recruitment event, while 16.2% used an international recruitment event that was organized by the Nova Scotia Office of Immigration. More than four in five employers (83.3%) reported that the nominees are still working for them. In cases when nominees left their job, the most common reasons reported by the employer were to move to another province (32.4%) and to take another job (25.9%) Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 34

42 Most Recent Nominee Employers report that the average wage rate paid to their most recent nominee was $20.23/hour, the lowest paid hourly rate was $11.50 per hour, the highest paid hourly rate was $64.00 per hour, and the most often cited (mode) hourly rate was $14.00 per hour. Employers indicated that 79.2% of the most recently hired nominees are still with their organization, while 20.8% are not. Application Process Most employers (66.7%) completed the application themselves. One third (33.3%) of employers said someone else in their organization completed the application. Most employers found the application form very easy (16.4%) or somewhat easy (45.2%) to complete. Three in ten (30.1%) found the application form to be somewhat difficult and very difficult. Most (65.4%) of the employers who said the application form was difficult said it took too long to collect all the information needed for the application form. One third of this group (34.6%) found the instructions on the form were not clear, while 30.4% said that too much information was required. The majority (65.1%) of employers used the Nova Scotia Immigration Office website to understand the NSNP. Just under half (45.3%) contacted Nova Scotia Nominee Program staff, while 19.8% talked to other employers who went through the process in the past. Just over half of the employers (52.9%) were in direct contact with the NS Nominee Program staff while applying. The remaining 47.1% were not in direct contact. Most (91.1%) employers used the telephone, and 76.8% corresponded via with NSOI staff Among those in contact, over nine in ten (92.9%) employers indicated they received the assistance they needed. Only 1.8% said they did not. Just over half (55.8%) of employers said it took 1-3 days to receive assistance, 17.3% said it took 3 days to less than 1 week, and 9.6% said it took less than a day. Most employers (59.6%) were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied (32.7%) with their dealings with the NS Nominee Program staff. e. Timeliness of Decision One third (34%) of employers said it took more than 8 weeks for the employee to receive a decision from the NSOI, while 25.2% said it took 4 to 8 weeks, and 13.6% said it took less than 4 weeks. The largest share of employers (37.3%) said it took about as long as expected, while 24.5% said it took a lot longer than they expected, and 15.7% said it took a little longer than expected Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 35

43 Just under a half (47.6%) of employers reported that they requested a letter of support, while 25.2% did not, and 27.2% did not know. The largest share of employers (46.9%) said it took about as long as they expected to receive the letter of support, 16.3% said it took a little longer than expected, and 14.3% said it took a little less time than expected. Overall Satisfaction with the NSNP The largest share of employers (48%) were somewhat satisfied with the program, while 33% were very satisfied. Combined, this equates to a satisfaction rate of 81%. The largest share of employers (48%) described their experience as somewhat easy, 22% said somewhat difficult, and 15% described it as very difficult. The majority (57.4%) rated their employee(s) performance and knowledge as excellent, while 39.4% rated it as very good. Four out of five (83.3%) employers said that their nominee(s) arrived with the skills necessary for the job. The majority (92.8%) of employers would consider using the Nova Scotia Nominee Program again to hire an international candidate. Among those who would not, the time, cost, and level of effort were offered as barriers, with the suggestion that these are more pronounced for smaller organizations. Others noted the changes in applications, streams, and processes were a deterrent. General Comments: Six out of ten (61.5%) employers offered no comment on their experiences working with the NS Nominee Program. In general, the comments from the remaining 48.5% of employers were positive and encouraged the NSOI to continue to attract immigrants to the province. Concerns expressed by employers included comments related to: o Challenges retaining workers who after their engagement in Nova Scotia may find employment elsewhere in Canada. o The need for process simplification, highlighting the complexity of the language used in applications. One respondent noted the duplication of information needed by the province and required by the federal government Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 36

44 4.3 Comparison to NSNP Evaluation The evaluation of the NSNP for , completed in 2011, also included a survey of nominees and employers. A comparison of some of the survey findings from the two evaluations are highlighted below. Nominee Survey Results Top Five Reasons for Choosing Nova Scotia Overall nominees in and chose Nova Scotia for similar reasons. It is interesting to note that there were more nominees who chose Nova Scotia for education (27%) in 2011 versus only 7% in The 2017 survey questionnaire included more response options for this question and this may have diluted the responses received. Reason for Choosing NS % 2011 Evaluation % 2017 Evaluation Job 45% 48% Education 27% 7% Lifestyle 22% 26% Family 11% 7% Friends 9% 3% Most Common Methods for Communicating with Staff In the 2011 survey results, (61%) and telephone (62%) were the most common methods for nominees to communicate with NSNP staff with 49% saying they communicated with an inperson meeting. In 2017, nominees were more likely to communicate with the office by (88%) and 43% said they communicated by telephone. Only 16% of respondents said they communicated with an in-person meeting. Satisfaction with Staff Both survey results indicated a very high overall satisfaction with NSNP staff, 97% of 2017 survey respondents and 95% of 2011 survey respondents were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with NSNP staff Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 37

45 How long after submitting your application did you wait for a decision from NSOI? Both survey results indicated similar wait times for a decision from NSOI, see table below. % 2011 Evaluation % 2017 Evaluation More than 2 months 47% 52% 1-2 months 31% 27% Less than one month 18% 17% Employment Outcomes Both survey results indicated strong employment outcomes for nominees with 85% of nominees in the 2017 survey employed and 84% of nominees in the 2011 survey employed. Employer Survey Results In 2017, employers were more likely to be using NSOI s web site to learn about the NSNP and as a source of information while they completed their application. In 2017, 38% of employers heard about the NSNP from NSOI s website compared to 8% in In 2017, 65% of employers used the website for assistance in completing their application (compared to 32% in 2011). In 2011 and in 2017, business associates and the employee hired were common ways for the employer to hear about the NSNP. In 2017, 24% of employers heard about the NSNP through a business associate and 36% heard about the NSNP from the employee compared to 2011 when 24% heard about the program from a business associate and 23% heard about the program from the employee. Employers were much more likely to use NSNP staff in 2017 (45%) to assist with completing their application than in 2011 (21%). Employers overall satisfaction with the application process was higher in 2011, 90% were satisfied in 2011, compared to 2017 when 81% of employers said they were satisfied with the application process overall Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 38

46 5 IMPACT AND EFFECTIVENESS 5.1 Effectiveness of the NSNP in Attracting and Retaining Immigrants With full utilization of federal Provincial Nominee Program allocations, the NSNP is effective in attracting nominees. Without comparative benchmark data to further assess this - for example, the cost of outreach and attraction results we are unable to compare Nova Scotia with other provinces in this regard. To assess retention, we used both nominee and employer surveys (which both suggest high levels of retention); and the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). The IMDB is a comprehensive source of data on immigrant outcomes administered by Statistics Canada on behalf of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and provincial immigration officials. The database links administrative files from IRCC (immigrant landing files and nonpermanent resident files) with tax filing data collected by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and is considered a highly reliable source of information concerning labour market outcomes, mobility, and demography of immigrants to Canada. All immigrants included in the IMDB must have obtained permanent resident status (from 1980 onwards) and filed at least one tax return (from 1982 onward) 26, allowing a proxy assessment of retention. In our work, we examined IMDB data for the period of (2013 was the most recent year for which accurate data are available) Retention 27 According to IMDB data, the retention rate for NSNP nominees is 71% for the period between 2008 and In other words, 71% of NSNP nominees who arrived in Nova Scotia between 2008 and 2013 are still in the province in The following are retention rates by year for the years included in this study and where data are available. 89% of Nominees and family members who arrived in 2013 remain in the province that year 77% of Nominees and family members who arrived in 2012 remain in the province in % of Nominees and family members who arrived in the province in 2011 remain in the 26 The IMDB results concerning earnings can be considered authoritative as they are drawn from CRA data. The retention rates calculated using IMDB data are estimates as they reflect the mobility patterns of only those immigrants who have filed a tax return in the relevant period. 27 Retention is estimated using tax filings data for principal applicants and dependents Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 39

47 province in 2013 There are limitations to the above analysis. Given that it applies only to immigrants who are working and paying taxes. The retention rates are not reflective of retention that would include dependents and family who are not working and filing income taxes. Likewise, the retention rates do not consider immigrants working under a short-term contract in other than their home province. As well, since the retention rates are based on tax filer data, they are not able to disambiguate between immigrants that remain but leave the work force, immigrate to another country, or stop filing because of death. Another challenge related to use of the IMDB data is that it does not provide immigration details using the nomenclature of NSOI s streams. Therefore, we are not able to use this information to compare retention rates across streams. The retention rate based on the Nominee Survey aligns with the IMDB data. Nearly three quarters of nominees were living in Nova Scotia at the time of the survey, a 74% retention rate. The survey found that availability of jobs (78%), the safety of the community (58%), a welcoming community (52%) and health and wellness services (41%) were the most common factors influencing a decision to stay in their community. When nominees who were not living in the province (26%) were asked why, the most common reasons were job opportunity (63%), more pay (18%), and family and friends elsewhere (19%). Most commonly these nominees were living in Ontario or Alberta Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 40

48 Retention by NSNP Stream The table below shows the percentage of respondents by stream who responded that they were currently living in the province. Retention rates for most streams were relatively high with 82%- 94% of nominees still living in the province. Nova Scotia Demand: Express Entry (47%) and the former International Graduate (67%) streams had the lowest proportion of nominees who are still living in the province. NSNP Stream Nominees surveyed still living in NS % N Skilled Worker 86% 860 Nova Scotia Demand: Express Entry 47% 187 Nova Scotia Experience: Express Entry 87% 293 International Graduate 67% 83 Community Identified 82% 67 Regional Labour Market Demand 83% 50 Family Business Worker 94% 15 Most survey respondents indicated they were living in Halifax Regional Municipality. Skilled Worker (28%) and the former Community Identified (34%) streams were the NSNP streams with the highest proportion of nominees living outside of HRM. Between 6% and 14% of nominees from the remaining NSNP streams included in the evaluation lived outside of HRM Earnings 28 The IMDB Earnings data for principal applicants provides valuable insights into the labour market outcomes of the cohort. In general, the principal applicant saw a steady increase in employment earnings in the years immediately after landing. By the third year after landing, 47% of principal applicants in Nova Scotia reported employment earnings above the Canadian average. 28 Reported for the years for principal applicants to the NSNP (any employment earnings reported by dependants is not included.) 2017 Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 41

49 Table 1: IMDB Earnings data for principal applicants Years after landing 29 Type of Earning Average Employment Earnings $ $ $ % Reporting Employment Income % w/ Emp. Earnings Over Cdn. Avg % w/ EI Benefits % w/ Self-Employment Earnings Source: Statistics Canada/IRCC (IMDB) There is also evidence of steadily increasing self-employment among principal applicants in the years immediately after landing in Nova Scotia. However, the data also suggest a divergence in outcomes among principal applicants. While average earnings and self-employment earnings continue to rise, the percent of principal applicants reporting employment income tends to fall in the years after landing while the share receiving EI benefits rises slightly over the same period. 5.2 Impact of Immigrants on the Nova Scotia Economy The data needed to measure the economic impact of the Nominee Program using an Input- Output (IO) model did not result from the study. The income data available through the administrative data and from the survey differed from each other and that maintained by IMDB. While there is no agreed-to view of the net impact of immigration, Nova Scotia s Nominee Program focuses on high-value, highly-qualified candidates with strong potential for employment and therefore, a high probability of making positive economic contributions to the Province and to Canada. A more focused study would be needed to unequivocally benchmark and measure the economic contribution of the NSNP, but responses to the nominee survey provide useful insights that help identify the range of economic contribution of NSNP participants. First, retention, although influenced heavily by more recent nominees and applicants, is high: nearly three-quarters (73.8%) of nominees are currently living in Nova Scotia and nearly nine in ten (87.3%) nominees would prefer to stay in their current community. 29 Earnings data for Year 0 has been excluded as the data does not necessarily reflect a full year of employment or other earnings Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 42

50 Just under nine in ten (87.5%) nominees were currently employed and the clear majority (85.2%) had not experienced periods of unemployment since their nomination. Of those who were employed, 92.1% were employed full-time. Further, three quarters (76.5%) of nominees indicated that at least 50% of their total household income was derived from employment. Self-employment was low (3.2%), but of those self employed, the majority (92.9%) started their own business and 7.1% purchased an existing business. As well, three quarters of the selfemployed nominees hired staff. Three in five nominees who had spouses or partners (59.5%) indicated that their partners were working. The nominees are generally highly educated. The clear majority (91.8%) of nominees had some level of post-secondary training as follows - PhD (2.4%), Master s (23.1%) and trade certificate or diploma (5.1%). Only 6% of nominees had no post-secondary education prior to arriving in Nova Scotia. The following figures, from NSOI administrative data shows income levels for the Skilled Worker and Family Business Worker streams from 2011 to Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 43

51 Figure 4: Average of Salary by Year, Job-Offer Streams While family business worker incomes have increased, skilled worker average incomes have remained relatively stable. It should also be noted that the data is selected for only those incomes above $20,000 per year and those below $150,000 per year. Income information, collected in both the survey and in the administrative data, vary widely. The survey indicated that 42.4% financially support family abroad. While the magnitude of this financial support is unknown, there is the potential that some of the economic contribution from nominees outlined above is accruing to another country Group ATN Consulting Inc. pg. 44