The Situation of Children and Young People at the Regional Level in Bulgaria

Transcription

1 The Situation of Children and Young People at the Regional Level in Bulgaria Prepared by Bulgaria Country Statistical Team Co-ordinator: Finka Denkova National Statistical Institute, Sofia MONEE Country Analytical Report November 2004

2 The project to monitor the impact of economic and social change on children in Eastern and Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (MONEE) was initiated at the UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre in The project seeks to monitor, analyse and disseminate information on economic and social trends affecting children s rights and wellbeing in countries in the region. A key feature of the Project is a network of correspondents in the 27 National Statistical Offices (NSOs). On an annual basis these correspondents complete an extensive data template which in turn is used for calculating indicators, supporting research of the project and, in due course, being made publicly available as the TransMonee database and in tables and graphs of the Innocenti Social Monitor. For a number of years, each participating NSO prepared a Country Analytical Report based on extensive outline from UNICEF IRC on a different theme on the situation of children every year. These analytical reports have provided valuable input into the research at UNICEF IRC and, as significantly, have also served as important national documents on monitoring aspects of child wellbeing in the countries. Some of these Country Analytical Reports have been issued by the NSOs (in the national language) as part of their publication programme. UNICEF IRC attaches great value to these national assessments of the situation of children and is committed to promote the efforts, including through translating the reports into English (where the submitted report has been in Russian) and offering its website to make them accessible to a wider research audience. The Country Analytical Reports are owned and authored by the National Statistical Offices and are not the intellectual property of UNICEF (see below). The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or view of UNICEF. The text has not been edited for official publication standards and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers. 2

3 Child Well-being in the regions of Bulgaria (Report based on statistical data) During the past decade Bulgaria has undergone a profound socioeconomic transformation. Aiming to carry out the transition from central planning to a market economy, and ensure macro-economic stability, the state had to remove its excessive control that could hinder the spontaneous performance of markets. After the years of economic crisis, since 1998 Bulgaria started to feel the results of the decisive steps taken by state authorities to stabilize the economy and speed up structural reform. The stabilization and normalization of economic conditions switched the efforts focus to the new dimensions of social development emphasizing employment, educational, and wellbeing aspects. But the opportunities for improving quality of population life are mainly determined by the existing economic potential. So, improving the quality of population life is a result of continuous growth, macro-economic stabilization and efficient distribution. At the same time the opportunities for improving population s economic and social status are being searched in the frame of limited financial resources, under the conditions of hard budget constraints (the currency board introduced in 1997 restricts the government s ability to borrow from the Central Bank). Under these conditions the policies should encourage growth based mainly on encouragement the opportunities for private business development and self-employment, which are expected to create new job places and higher income and to provide the necessary preconditions for social investment; establishing frameworks to protect consumers and taking care of the more vulnerable population groups (women, children, individuals etc.), which condition had deteriorated as a result of the transformation process. Trying to analyse of how Bulgaria s social and economic problems during the transition period have impacted the different dimensions of child and family well-being, this report puts the spotlight on a number of issues, such as: demographic, transition problems in the fields of education and health, income levels, unemployment, basic economic data etc. During the last decade the National Statistical Institute continues its tradition to collect information about the basic features of the country s demographic, social and economic development and to analyse the tendencies of development in the context of transition process. A lot of socio-economic differences arise when the states are surveyed on national level. If surveyed on regional level these differences go deeper. Regional policy is an important tool for achieving sustainable and balanced regional development in the EU, as well as in Bulgaria. Special funds are created to support successful regional policy. Their usage is regulated thanks to legal base with clear criteria. The development of the National Economic Development Plan (NEDP) to 2006 is un importrant step towards harmonization of the governance with the EU. An important part of the NEDP defines the guidelines for development of the 6 planning regions and the 28 districts. What is important is not the existence of a plan, but the knowledge that the Bulgarian administration gains in the process of its preparation. In the process of preparation participants will gain experience in creating and using a tool, which will be fundamental after Bulgaria s accession in the EU. Some of the most important requirements towards this tool are: It should be realistic the assumptions contained in it must be based on objective analysis and trustful statistical information; The purposes contained in it must be measurable; Both requirements directly formulate the need of reliable statistical information. 3

4 The possibilities for analyzing the regional development are limited by lot of reasons: Objective problems 1 1. Unsatisfactory precision of the indicators, estimated through sample surveys The reason is that these samples are designed to be representative on national level only. Good indicators on regional level (acceptable stochastical errors) require increase of the size of the samples, and from there the financing, which is now beyond the strength of the Bulgarian statistical institute, as well as for the wealthy European statistical offices. One of the powerful means for solving this problem is the wider usage of administrative data sources. 2. Confidentiality of data on the lower regional levels. This is true, mostly, for data about economic entities. In many cases this leads to refuse to supply data, without which it is impossible for decisions to be made. At the same time, however, the vague definition of confidentiality creates preconditions for its subjective interpretation. This leads to problems with receiving and disseminating data. Here, again, except for clarification of the definition of confidentiality, a solution is the wider usage of administrative sources for collecting information. The fact that the restriction for disseminating confidential data is true for users outside the national statistical system only, has to be taken into consideration. When supplying data to NSI departments or to other statistical bodies, they could be confidential. The unit that receives the data is responsible for keeping confidentiality inside the national statistical system. The latest changes in the Law on statistics solved this problem, at least according to dissemination of information for governmental decision making purposes. Art 26(2) of the law says: Statistical information on economic condition or environment condition, collected by economic and other subjects may be submitted under para.1, p. 2 and 3, in the cases when this is necessary for providing basic information of established public significance and when it is foreseen in the National Programme for Statistical Surveys. The law defines Basic information of established public significance : Basic information of established public significance is the information received from constant statistical surveys, included in the National Programme for Statistical Surveys and needed for the elaboration and reporting of the National Plan for Economic Development and the National Plan for Regional Development of the country. 3. There is no information on regional level for some indicators, traditional for the EU information is either no produced at all, or not available on regional level. It would be acceptable if this is based on methodological or other objective reason. 4. There is strong correlation on regional level the lower the level, the fewer information about it is. This is true especially for economic data. Significant efforts are needed, so that this correlation is weakened. 5. Another significant problem concerns data storage and archiving. In most of the cases information for old periods/moments is stored on paper. This requires its reentry, but this is not the essence of the problem. The more complex problem is that usually archives are located far from those who work with the data (ex. the archive of NSI is placed in the village 1 Regional statistical development in Bulgaria, Sergei Tzevetarski, Head of Regional Statistics Division, NSI,Bulgaria 4

5 Slivek, Lovech district). This makes difficult and, even impossible, the formation of longer time series obligatory precondition for data analysis. 6. There is no metadata available for a large part of the indicators. The methodology of data collection and calculating for a huge part of the indicators was changed (several times for some indicators). The administrative breakdown has also changed (in 1999). If such information is not supported, even if data are disseminated they would be useless. Easier problems (theoretically) have purely subjective nature. They concern relations between participants in the process of collecting and aggregating regional information, at NSI, the territorial bureaus and other statistical bodies. Several important aspects, related to the dissemination process exist. It seems that, so far, sufficient attention is not paid to the different types of information flows. We have to consider that there are two types of users - end ones, i.e. outside NSI and interim, i.e. supporting and transforming the information. The complete solution of these types of problems is the development of a statistical information system with all means available to the statistics. Such system would be able to generate random tables, depending on the purposes. The realization of this solution is now absolutely achievable, without a lot of additional effort. Young specialists, with higher education in statistics, started working in NSI during the past years. They have studied special courses on database development and standard statistical software products (SPSS, STATISTICA, STRATIGRAPHICS, etc.), which gives them a solid base for working with information. Background in Geography and GIS is also e good precondition for implementation of GIS in the regional analysis. The optimal combination of these specialists knowledge with the long-time experience of other NSI personnel, familiar with the specifications of data, guarantees the overcome of obstacles like this. The NSI publication Regions and districts in the Republic of Bulgaria contains data about the demographic, social, economic and environmental state of the Bulgarian districts and planning regions for the period Regarding the districts (to a certain extent comparable with the former districts - okrazi) the publication is continuation of NSI s publications for previous years, while appropriate data about planning regions are published here for the first time. Bulgaria s planning regions were created in According to the agreements with Eurostat they are considered comparable to level 2 units of the European nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS). The most important indicators have been chosen in order to reveal the specifics of the different territorial units. Parts of the data have already appeared in some other thematic NSI s publications, but here they are, for the first time, systematized in territorial aspect. The information given is too diverse and considering the publication s limited volume covers the diversity of the social and economic development of the country to an optimal extent. In order to interpret the indicators and data correctly users are advised to take into consideration the notes and links to other publications stated in the methodological notes. Taking into account the increasing demand for analyses of the regional disparities and in order to develop a consistent regional policy according to the European requirements, NSI aims to regularly supply all the interested institutions with regional information. For the years between five-year publications like this, users can utilize relevant NSI s electronic publications. If data on a lower territorial level (municipalities) are needed, publications of the 28 regional statistical offices can be used. 5

6 By now NSI develops regional statistics based on the administrative breakdown of the country (i.e. we work with normative regions). Certainly, it is now possible to produce statistical data for functional regions, but they are limited by the requirement that they have to be formed as aggregation from the normative units on the lower level. If formed otherwise, supply of information for them will require additional efforts and resources. In addition, the lower the level in the administrative breakdown of the country, the fewer data available is. That is why, considering these limitations, practical possibilities for statistical survey of the different functional units are scarce. In the EU and OECD countries there has, for a long time, been a practice for developing analyses, based on functional regions, and that is one of the directions that NSI will have to develop in the future. Different tools are used for classification of the territorial units. For national purposes Bulgaria uses National Classification of the Administrative and Territorial Units. This classification covers settlements, kmetstva (mayoralties), municipalities, districts and planning regions. Attention has to be paid on the fact that units on the separate levels are different. For instance, municipalities are self-governed (mayors are elected), while districts are under the central government (district governors are nominated by the Council of ministers). There are no bodies with administrative functions in the six planning regions, based on the Decree of the Council of ministers 145/2000. As part of the policy towards integration with the EU statistical system and for achieving comparability of data, NSI has also accepted the NUTS (Nomenclature des units territoriale et statistique) classification. Bulgarian part of this nomenclature follows hierarchical structure of five levels. Each upper level consists of aggregation of whole units on the lower level. Defined like this, the NUTS levels are compatible with the National Classification of the Administrative-Territorial and Territorial Units (NCATTU). This eases the collection and processing of regional statistical data. The acceptance of these units and their approbation by the EU (EUROSTAT) is also a matter of discussion. Eurostat has now accepted the regions, defined on level 2 with the stipulation, that by the acceptance of Bulgaria in the EU they will be additionally discussed. Changes in the NUTS levels will most probably occur. The new EC regulation (1059/2003) defines strict rules for setting up NUTS levels. The following table shows the parameters for the fist three NUTS levels: Criteria for forming regions based on the population number Level Lower limit Upper limit NUTS 1 3 million 7 million NUTS million NUTS Since the population of Bulgaria still counts a little more than 7 millions NSI has been asked to propose formation of 2 statistical units at level 1. At present, some of the planning regions (NUTS 2) do not meet criteria. The North- West planning region, for instance, has a population of approximately

7 The map shows the current territorial units at NUTS3 and NUTS2 and their location at the country territory. When defining the region borders other factors must be considered too. The major requirement is internal homogeneity. For example, some of the present planning regions are heterogeneous. The example for that is the South-West region. Sofia (capital) city being included in it, distorts the picture of the socio-economic state of the region. The influence of the economic potential, geographic location, transport interrelations, historic and cultural heritage etc., should also be taken into consideration. The Decree of the President of the Republic of Bulgaria ( 1 of ) stated the borders and administrative centers of 28 districts in the country in accordance with the Law for administrative and territorial constitution. These districts are adequate to the NUTS 3 level of Eurostat Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics and to a certain extend comparable with the former districts okrazi. With Ordinance of the Council of Ministries 145 ( ) for implementation of strategies and programmes, co-financed from EU Programmes 6 planning regions are defined. According to the agreements with Eurostat they are considered comparable to level NUTS2. Prior to 1999 the administrative constitution included 9 regions, that are not comparable with the current administrative constitution. The South Central Planning Region has the bigest territory (24.6%) and includes the Kardzhali, Pazardzik, Plovdiv, Smolian, Stara Zagora and Haskovo districts. Administratively it is composed of the largest number of municipalities (67 of 263 as of ), population settlements and cities. The only 2 nd place it occupies is for the indicator of population density, while 1 st first place is taken by the South-West Planning Region. The bigger population density in the South Central Planning Region is due to the 7

8 District of Sofia-capital. The District of Sofia-capital has the smallest territory (1.2%) and the population density of persons. The smallest among other planning regions is the North-West Region, consisting of the districts Vidin, Vratsa and Montana. That Region is the smallest both in territory, population and number of population settlements and cities. Population and demographic trends Changes in the number of the population and the population structure in Bulgaria are determined by the natural demographic development and migration processes. A long-term tendency towards a decline in the number of the population has set in since the late 1980s. The significant changes in the demographic behaviour of the population have resulted in a rapid drop of its natural increase. The deepening demographic crisis has been also been directly and indirectly influenced by emigration processes since At the end of 2003 the country s population was thousand. Compared to 2002 its number has declined by 44.6 thousand persons or 0.6%. The decline is entirely due to the negative natural increase of the population, i.e. the significantly greater number of deaths compared to that of live births. The decline is higher among males than females. In comparison with 2002 the number of males has dropped by 25 thousand persons or 0.7%, while that of females has declined by 19 thousand, or 0.5%. The number of females in the total population is higher by thousand, with a relative share of 51.4 %. In 2003 there were males to females. Females predominate in older age groups, while the number of males is higher in younger age groups i.e. under 40 years of age. The breakdown of the population by sex and place of residence is more or less even % of the total male population live in cities, the percentage for females being 70.2%. Over the period significant changes can be observed in the age structure of the population. The process of ageing of the population continues. The number and relative share of the population under 15 years of age has been constantly decreasing, with the share of the population over 65 being on the increase. While in 1990 the relative share of young people under 15 years of age was 20.1%, and that of persons over % of the total population, in 1995 these relative shares were 17.7% and 15.2% respectively. At the end of 2003 the relative share of young people is 14.2%, while that of the older population already represents 17.1 of the total population. The ageing of the population naturally leads to higher values of the average age indicator. The average age of the population in Bulgaria in 1990 stood at 37.5 years. Over the following years this indicator rose to 38.9 in 1995 and 40.6 in The average age of the population in 2003 was almost at the same level 40.8 years. The process of ageing of the population takes place in both villages and cities. The average age in villages is higher than that in cities 44.9 years in villages and 39.1 in cities. The tendency towards ageing of the population also results in changes in its age structure, namely the breakdown of the population by categories under, at and over working age. The breakdown of the population at working age and over working age is influenced by both ageing and the changes in legislation fixing the age-limit for the population in working age. The age limit for 2003 was as follows: from 16 years of age until the completion of 57 years of age for females and 62 years for males. The population at working age in 2003 was thousand, or 60.8% of the total population. As a result of changes in legislation this category of the population has increased by almost 35 thousand persons or 0.7%. Regardless of this fact, however problems in the 8

9 reproduction of the population at working age are likely to persist because of the decreasing number of the population under working age. A long-term tendency towards a decline has emerged among the population under working age. In comparison with 2002 this category of the population has decreased by 37 thousand, and by the end of 2003 it numbered thousand, or 15.5% of the population of the country. A comparison shows that in 1990 this share was 21.6%, in % and in %. The population over working age in 2003 was approximately thousand. Over a period of year it has decreased by 42 thousand persons. A similar fall (by 43 thousand) was observed during the preceding year. The decrease of this category in terms of number and relative share is due not only to the natural movement of the population (mortality), but also to the exclusion from it of part of the population due to changes in the pension age limit. NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE POPULATION During children were born in Bulgaria, of which (99.2%) were live-born. Compared to the preceding year the number of live-born children has increased by 860. A comparison with 1990, however when children were born is indicative for the decline in the number of births. Using this base year for comparison, the number of live-born children has decreased by 36%, and compared to 1995 by 6.4%. The crude birth rate (the number of live-born children per 1000 persons of the average annual population) which has been decreasing over the last few decades reached its minimal value of 7.7%o in During the last three years the crude birth rate has stabilized on a level of 8.5 %o, reaching 8.6%o in The younger age structure of the population in cities and the relatively large number of fertility contingents determine a higher birth rate of the urban population. The birth rate in cities is 8.9 %o, and that in villages %o. The tendency towards a decline in birth rates is mainly due to the constant decrease of the number of fertility contingents in Bulgaria and the reduced fertility of women in fertility age. In 1990 the number of women in fertility age (15-49 years) was thousand, and in thousand. In 2003 their number was thousand. When reviewing data on fertility contingents one should keep in mind that 94% of births come from women between 15 to 34 years of age, who numbered thousand in The total fertility rate showing the average number of children whom a mother would give birth to during her entire fertile period is indicative of birth rates tendencies. In 1990 the total fertility rate was 1.81 children, reaching an absolute low of 1.09 in 1997 and ranging between 1.21 and 1.24 over the last few years, with a value of 1.23 live-born children in In other words, birth rates in Bulgaria are far from the theoretical minimum needed for the simple population reproduction live-born children per woman. Along with decreasing birth rates, the tendency towards an increase of the mean age of the mother at first birth is also gaining ground. In 2003 the mean age of the mother at birth was 25.6 years, and the age at first birth 24.3 years. Compared to 1990, these indicators are 23.9 years and 22.0 years respectively, the same mean age being also registered in In villages women give birth to their first child at a younger age an average of 22.2 years, while in cities the mean age is 25.0 years. The crude birth rate in Bulgaria continues to be lower in comparison with that in European countries 2. Over the last decades a tendency towards decreasing birth rates can also be observed in European countries, however in most EU member countries the crude birth rate has stabilized on a level of %o. Birth rates range in these limits in countries such as Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Luxembourg, Portugal, Finland and Sweden. The 2 International data comparisons refer to European countries in Source: Recent Demographic Developments in Europe. 9

10 country with the highest birth rate in the EU is Ireland 15.4%o. Birth rates are lower in Austria 9.7 %o, Italy 9.4 %o, Greece 9.3 %o and Germany 8.8 %o. In the EU candidate countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia the crude birth rate is approximately 8.7 %o. In Poland and the Czech Republic this rate is slightly higher than the one in Bulgaria, and is 9.3 %o and 9.1 %o respectively. Romania, Estonia, Slovakia and Hungary have higher birth rates than Bulgaria, though even there the crude birth rate is not very high 9.5 %o. After 1990 a tendency has emerged towards an increase of the relative share of illegitimate births in Bulgaria. Their relative share has increased from 12.4 % in 1990 to 25.8% in 1995, reaching 46.2% in Their number is , of which 325 were still births. Out of all illegitimate children 86% were born to mothers under the age of 29. Illegitimate births are mainly the result of a new family model appearing outside legal marriage, namely the so-called consensus or de facto marriage. Out of all registered illegitimate birth, it was only in cases (42.2%) that the name of the father was listed as unknown. Their relative share compared to that of all births is 19.6%. We can thus assume that not all illegitimate live-born children live outside a family environment. In Bulgaria in 2003 there were deaths, or 14.3 per 1000 persons of the population. Compared to the preceding year the number of deaths has declined by only 690 persons, while the crude death rate has remained the same. During the 1990s the crude death rate was highest in 1997, namely 14.7 %o. Mortality remains higher among males (15.8 %o) than females (12.9 %o), and higher in villages (20.1 %o) than in cities (11.8 %o). The different death rate levels among these population categories also determine the difference in average life expectancy at birth by sex and among the urban and rural population. The average life expectancy at birth has increased from years for the period to years for the period. Over the period it was years. Life expectancy at birth for the last period is approximately 7 years longer among females (75.59 years) than that among males (68.68 years). Among the urban population life expectancy at birth is years, and among the rural population years. Mortality in Bulgaria is considerably higher than that in other European countries. In EU member countries the crude death rate ranges between 7.5%o in Ireland, 8.9%o in the Netherlands and 9.9 %o in Austria, Finland and Italy. The mortality rate is slightly higher in Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Portugal and Sweden ranging from 10.2 to 10.6 %o. Denmark has a higher mortality rate 10.9 %o. In Switzerland and Norway, which are not EU members this indicator has values of 8.5 and 9.9 %o respectively. Among EU candidate countries Bulgaria has the highest mortality rate, followed by Latvia with 13.9 %o. In Hungary and Estonia this indicator is slightly above 13 %o. The mortality rate in Slovenia, Poland and Slovakia ranges between 9.3 and 9.6 %o. One should keep in mind that this indicator is strongly influenced by the age structure of the population, yet regardless of this fact mortality is much higher in Bulgaria. Another general measure of mortality is the premature mortality indicator, namely the relative share of deaths of persons under the age of 65 compared with the total number of deaths. Since 1990 (29.7%) it has been on the decline with a value of 26.4 % in 1998, reaching its lowest value in % and decreasing by 0.2 percentage points in comparison with the preceding year. Therefore the stable high death rate is mainly due to deaths in the older age group, though the decrease in the population in the younger age group must also be taken into account. Infant mortality continues to be characterized by its considerable inherent fluctuations. The infant mortality rate is an indicator influenced by various factors and susceptible to change in time and the relatively minor numbers from which it is derived. After reaching the high level of 16.9%o in 1991, the infant mortality rate fell to 14.8%o in 1995, and in

11 reached its highest value for the last 15 years 17.5 %o. Over the next years it decreased again, reaching 14,4 %o in 2001, and 13.3 %o in In 2003, 831 children up to the age of 1 year died in Bulgaria, with the infant mortality rate decreasing to 12.3 %o. The infant mortality level in EU countries is 2-3 times lower than in Bulgaria. The lowest infant mortality rate is registered in Sweden and Finland 2.8 and 3.00 %o respectively. In other countries this rate is between 3.4 %o in Spain and 5.9 %o in Greece. The lowest infant mortality level registered in Europe is that in Iceland 2.2. %o. Among EU candidate countries, only Romania has a higher infant mortality rate 17.3 %o. In Poland and Hungary this rate is below 8.00 %o. Out of these countries, the lowest infant mortality rate is that in the Czech Republic 4.1 %o. In 2003 there were no significant changes in the mortality structure by cause of death. The main cause of deaths were diseases of blood and blood-forming organs, followed by neoplasms, symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions, accidents and poisonings, diseases of the respiratory system and diseases of the digestive system. The difference between births and deaths represents the natural increase of the population. Since 1990 the number of deaths exceeds that of births. Hence this difference is negative. As a result, since the beginning of the 1990s the population of Bulgaria has been decreasing. The natural increase rate increased from -0.4 %o in 1990 to -2.9 %o in 1993 and %o in 1995, reaching its highest value in 1997 (-7.0 %o). As a result of an increase in the number of birth and a fall in the number of deaths over the next two years the natural increase rate decreased in absolute terms reaching 4.8%o in Over the next years this rate increased again and in 2003 its value was 5.7 %o. The difference between the natural increase rate values in cities and villages is considerable. In villages it is 12.2 %o, while in cities it was 2.9 %o. In spite of the existing tendency towards a decrease of the natural increase rate in European countries, the figures for Bulgaria continue to be negative. Among EU member countries only Greece, Italy and Germany have a negative natural increase rate %o, -0.5 %o and -1.4 %o respectively. In other EU countries the natural increase rate is positive and ranging from 0.2 %o in Austria, and 1.0 %o in Belgium, The United Kingdom and Denmark to 3.7 %o in the Netherlands and Luxembourg. Indicator values in Ireland are particularly outstanding (7.9 %o). Among EU candidate countries Latvia is the country with a pattern of natural movement of the population closest to that in Bulgaria (-5.3 %o). Estonia and Hungary have a lower negative natural increase rate %o and -3.6 %o respectively. The negative natural increase rate is much lower in Poland and Slovakia (-0.1 %o) and Slovenia (-0.5 %o). An analysis of the data on the natural movement of the population and a comparison with the respective data in European countries leads to a conclusion that in the present demographic situation in Bulgaria, it is not only low births rates that present a problem, but also the high mortality level among the population. MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE Over the last few years the number of marriages has fallen. While in 1993 the total registered number of marriages was , or 4.7 per persons of the population, in 2002 the number of marriages reached its lowest level (29 218), and the marriage rate 3.7 %o. In 2003, in comparison with the preceding year, an increase of the number of marriages by can be observed, the total number being or 3.9 per In spite of the registered increase, the number of legitimate marriages in 2003 was the lowest one, compared to the number registered in The comparison of the average age of marriage among women (25.2 years) with that of the mother at first birth (24.3 years) reveals a tendency for the birth of the first child to be preceded by marriage. A tendency towards an increase of the average age at first marriage can be observed. Among men in 1998 it was 26.6 years, and in 2003 it reached 28.4 years. The indicator for 11

12 females is 23.5 and 25.2 years respectively. The age at first marriage in cities for both men and women is higher than that in villages. This difference in age among men is more than one year 28.7 years in cities and 27.3 years in villages. The average age of women at marriage in villages is 23.9 years, and a year and a half higher in cities 25.5 years. The number of terminated marriages in 2003 is , or almost 2 thousand more than in The average duration of marriage is 13.2 years and compared to previous periods shows a tendency towards an increase. In 1993 the average duration of the marriage was 9.6 years, and in years. There are no significant changes in divorces by reasons. Out of all terminated marriages in 45% the reason for divorce was given as mutual agreement, in 29% the reason was incompatibility of temperament, in 11% of cases virtual parting, and in 5% - infidelity. Other reasons represented a considerably smaller relative share of the total. INTERNAL MIGRATION OF THE POPULATION In thousand persons took part in migration and changed their place of residence within Bulgaria. Out of all migrants 47% were male ( persons) and the remaining 53% were female ( persons). In comparison with preceding years a specific stabilization of the population by place of residence has set in, i.e. a reduction of its territorial mobility. The intensity of internal migration (the ratio between the total number of migrations and the number of the population) was 2.1 % in 2003, compared to 2.3% in 1998 and 2.7% in Over the period a cyclical development of migration flows between cities and villages can be observed. As a result of the relation of these two main flows by place of residence, the migration balance in 1998 reached persons in favour of cities. At the end of 1999 the migration increase in the country changed its direction and was already in favour of villages by 8 847, and in the following year the migration balance changed direction again with an increase of in favour of cities. In 2001 and 2002 the increase of the urban population continued on the basis of migration increase, however its number gradually fell and in 2002 declined to its 1998 level. The biggest migration increase in territorial aspect in 2003 occurred in between cities and other cities. Approximately 41 % of all migrants changed their place of residence from one town to another. Migration flows from villages to cities (18%) and from village to village (10%) were much smaller in number and relative share. The number of emigrants from cities to villages (31%) was greater than that in the opposite direction, thus contributing to a migration balance in favour of villages. As a result of the migration of the population in 2003, the population of villages increased by 19 thousand at the expense of cities. The general analysis of the results of the development of the population and of demographic processes shows that Bulgaria is in a difficult demographic transition characterized by relatively low birth rates and a continuing high level of general and infant mortality. The hardships of the economic transition also contributed to increasingly negative tendencies of demographic development and the formation of a new kind of demographic behaviour of the population a decrease in fertility and emigration from Bulgaria of significant contingents of the younger generation. Regardless of the fact that during the period the tendency towards worsening of the natural movement of the population was stopped and emigration flows out of the country decreased, one should bear in mind that a highly unfavourable situation has developed in terms of the future reproduction of the population and its demographic structure. 12

13 TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION In 2003 there were settlements in Bulgaria, of which 246 are cities. No population was present in 141 settlements. The territorial distribution of the population (by administrative-territorial units) is influenced by the natural and internal migration increase. Changes in the territorial distribution of the population can also occur as a result of administrative changes. Thus in 2003 four villages were given the status of cities (Sarnitsa, Kostandovo, and Vetren in Pazardzhik district and Glodzhevo in Ruse district), a fact which has an impact on the population structure by place of residence. As a result of these administrative changes the population of cities has increased by 16 thousand. However, as a result of the natural and migration increase the population of cities has fallen by 35 thousand, and thus the decrease in comparison to 2002 amounts to a total of 20 thousand. The present population of cities is thousand, or 69.8% of the population of Bulgaria, and that of villages thousand, or 30.2%. In comparison with 2002 the population in villages has decreased by a total of 25 thousand. This decrease is mostly due to the low natural increase. Following the administrative territorial division and the formation of regions 6 planning regions, 28 districts and 264 municipalities have been established. There are significant differences between them in terms of population numbers. Over 50% of the country s population live in the South Central Region (1 944 thousand) and in the South-West Region (2 110 thousand). They are followed in terms of population number by the North-Central and North-East Regions with a population of thousand and thousand respectively or a total of 31% of the population of Bulgaria. The South-East Region has a population of 783 thousand, and a relative share of 10%. The North- West Region has the lowest population numbers 513 thousand or 7% of the population. The population decrease is a tendency for all planning regions for the period The population decreases with 18.7% in North West region, with 10.7% in North Central Region, with 8.6% in South Central Region. In the South West region the decrease is 3%. While comparing districts the differentiation is more significant. The district of Kardzhali has population decrease of 24.7%, Vratsa 20.1%, Vidin 19.1%, Smolyan 15.5%, Yambol 15.3% Only the Sofia-Capital district has a 1.6% increase of the population. The lasting negative tendencies in the demographic processes lead to big changes in the age structure of the population. The processes of aging go deeper. The increasing number of elderly influenced the age dependency ratio i.e. the share of population of 65 and more years. The age dependency indicator has the highest value for North West region 57.4% (2001) where the districts of Vidin and Montana have a leading role for the country with 59.9% and 59.2%. The South West region has the lowest value of age dependency ratio 43.6% for the region and 40.1% for the district of Sofia capital. The share of child population in 1992 was 23.6% and decreased with 5.4 percentage points in The territorial distribution of population at ages 0-17 is in equable. The child population represents 18.2% of the whole population in More than 50% of the youngest population lives in two planning regions - South Central (25.6) and South West (25.2%) planning regions. More than 13% of youth live in the district of Sofia Capital. North East (17.5%), North Central (14.1%), South East (11.1%) and North West (6.5%) planning regions followed the South Central and South West regions. Big differences exist in the share of child population among districts. 13

14 Share of child population by districts (% of total population at 0-17) as of Vidin Gabrovo Pernik Smolyan Kyustendil Silistra Yambol Targovishte Lovech Razgrad Montana Kardzhali Dobrich Shumen Vratsa Ruse Veliko Tarnovo Sliven Sofia Haskovo Pleven Pazardzhik Stara Zagora Blagoevgrad Burgas Varna Plovdiv Sofia cap. The district of Vidin (1.4%) is on the left on the figure with the lowest share of child population. The crude birth rate for 2003 is 8.6 per If we examine the period the birth rate systematically decreases starting from 12.1 in By 1997 the birth rate had dropped to 7.7 and since that year the increase was observed till 2000 (9.0). In districts have a birth rate lower than the value for the country, in one district the birth rate is the same as for the country, and in 13 districts the birth rate is higher. The district of Sliven is with the highest birth rate for per

15 Main demographic indicators for 2003 by regions of planning and districts Crude birth rate Crude death rate Rate of natural increase Total North-West Vidin Vratsa Montana North Central Veliko Tarnovo ,0 Gabrovo Lovech Pleven Ruse North-East Varna Dobrich Razgrad Silistra Targovishte Shumen South-East Burgas ,0 Sliven ,0-2.1 Yambol ,0-7.8 South Central Kardzhali Pazardzhik Plovdiv Smolyan Stara Zagora Haskovo South-West Blagoevgrad Kyustendil Pernik Sofia cap Sofia The natural increase for the whole period is negative. The lowest value of the natural increase is in the North West region. In 2003 all districts had negative natural increase. The districts of Vidin (-13.7) and Montana (-12.1) are with lowest natural increase compared to other districts. The district of 15

16 Kardzhali has the highest natural increase minus 1.3, followed by Blagoevgrad 1.9, Sliven 2.1. The distribution of the population by districts is also uneven, however a number of groups can be identified. The largest group is formed by 12 districts with a population of up to 200 thousand, or 22.6% of the country s population. The smallest district in terms of population is Vidin district 123 thousand (1.6%) and the biggest one is Sofia (Capital) thousand (15.5%). The relative share of Plovdiv district s population in the total population of the country is 9.1%. Thus a quarter of the country s population live in Sofia (Capital) and Plovdiv district, i.e. a number equal to the 8 districts with a population between 200 thousand and 300 thousand. The third biggest district after Plovdiv is Varna district with a population of 459 thousand, followed closely by Burgas district with 420 thousand. The districts of Stara Zagora, Blagoevgrad, Pleven and Pazardzhik rank next with population numbers ranging from 303 thousand in Pazadrzhik to 364 thousand in Stara Zagora. There are also major differences in the number of the population by municipalities. The decrease of the population has affected some of them particularly hard. Thus in municipalities such as Treklyano, Kovachevtsi, Chipsrovtsi, Boynitsa, Makresh and others the relative share of the older population is very high and the number of deaths is 10 times higher than that of births. In four municipalities (Treklyano, Chavdar, Chelopech and Anton) the population is under 2 thousand, representing less than 1% of the Bulgarian population, while 26.6% of the population live in the four biggest municipalities Sofia (capital) (1 209 thousand), Plovdiv (340 thousand), Varna (320 thousand) and Burgas (207 thousand). The size of these municipalities is determined above all by the number of the population in the cities serving as their administrative centres. There are 173 municipalities with a population between 2 to 20 thousand, which account for 22% of the population of Bulgaria. Almost 20% of the total population live on the territory of 54 municipalities with a population between 20 and 50 thousand, a figure approximately equal to population numbers in municipalities with a population of thousand, of which however are only 22 in Bulgaria. Only 7 municipalities have a population between 100 and 200 thousand inhabitants, and they represent 12% of the total population of the country. The South West planning region has the biggest population size 27.5% of the whole population in The region has the biggest population share which increased during the period The Sofia-capital district with population of 15.5% from the total population in 2003 is situated within the South West region. The Sofia capital district is followed by districts of Plovdiv (9%), Varna (5.9%), Burgas-(5.4%). The North West planning region has the smallest number of population 6.6% in 2003 and it s population decreased for the period Within the North West planning region is situated the district of Vidin - the smallest district in the country with 1.6% of the population. Compared to 1992 the population of Bulgaria has decreased with persons or 8%. The significant difference is mainly due to the external migration, reported from March 2001 Population Census. The ethic structure of the population is surveyed during the Population Census on the base of self-determination of the respondents. According to the March 2001 Population Census the Bulgarian ethic group is prevailing over other groups and represents 83.9% of population. Turkish ethic group has 9.4% and Roma ethic group represents 4.7% of population. 16

17 The territorial concentration by ethic groups vigorously varies between districts and planning regions. The Turkish ethnic group is the most numerous in the district of Kardzhali (61.6% of the population). In Razgrad it is about half of the population 47.2%. The North East planning region with districts of Silistra, Tagovishe and Razgrad has the biggest share of Turkish ethic group population 22.5%. Population from the Turkish ethic group has the smallest share in the North West planning region (0.4%) and in districts of Pernik, Kyustendil, Vidin and Montana. The share of Roma ethic group for the country is 4.7%. 14 districts have a smaller share and respectively other 14 districts have a bigger share. The district of Montana has the biggest share of Roma population 12.8%, followed by Sliven 12.3%, Dobrich- 8.7% etc. In Smolyan Roma ethic group has only 0.5%, Kardzhali 0.8%, Gabrovo- 1.1%, Sofia- capital 1.5%. SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LIFE CONDITIONS There is a tendency of decrease of the labour force (economically active population) during the period , which is more highly expressed at the beginning of the period until the end of In 2003 the labour force is thousands persons and the activity rate is 49.2%. The number of the economically active population decreases by 48.9 thousands in comparison with 2002 and the activity rate decreases by 0.2%. During the period the lowest level of employment is in %, after that it gradually increases and reaches 42.4% in In 2003 the number of the employed persons is thousands, which is by 94.4 thousands or by 3.4% more in comparison with the previous year. The employment rate in the towns is considerably higher than in villages % against 33.0%. In 2003 the employed men are thousands (52.9%), the employed women are (47.1%). The male employment rate is higher than female employment rate in all age groups of the population. The highest employment rate is in age group 74.4%, followed by age group (67.9%) and age group (65.4%). In 2003 the employment rates for different levels of education are in proportion to the level of education and they change from 67.9% for higher education to 9.5% for primary and primary unfinished. The tendency of increase of the employment in the private sector continues 2/3 of all employed persons are in the private sector in After 2001 the unemployment rate comparatively quickly decreases from 19.7% in 2001 it reaches 17.8% in 2002 and in 2003 is 13.7% (below the level of 1998). The number of the unemployed persons in 2003 is thousands, of which 54.8% are men and 45.2% - women. The male unemployment rate (14.1%) is higher than female unemployment rate (13.2%). The tendency of higher rural unemployment rate (16.2%) than urban one (12.9%) continues. The values of unemployment rates are in inverse proportion to the level of education and they change from 6.8% for higher education to 33.5% for primary and primary unfinished. The comparatively long-term unemployment in the country is a big economic and social problem thousands persons are unemployed more than one year. The relative share of long-term unemployed persons increases from 57.0% in 1998 to 65.4% in In 2003 the number of discouraged persons is thousands, of which thousands are men and women. The discouraged persons are 12.8% of all persons not in labour force respectively 15.8% of men and 10.6% of women. In the territorial aspect the employment is highest in South West region 47.3% of the population, 15 years of age and over in The lowest employment continues to be in North West region 35.3%. The unemployment rate changes from 11.1% for South Central region to 19.4% for North East planning region. 17