Population and Migration Estimates

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1 An Phríomh-Oifig Staidrimh Central Statistics Office 21 September 2010 Components of population growth Population and Migration Estimates April 2010 Natural increase Net migration Year ending April 2009 April 2010 Natural increase 45,100 45,900 Net migration - 7,800-34,500 Population change 37,200 11, Population at 4,459,300 4,470, Published by the Central Statistics Office, Ireland. Ardee Road Dublin 6 Ireland LoCall: Skehard Road Cork Ireland Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: Both offices may be contacted through any of these telephone numbers. CSO on the Web: and go to Census: Population: Releases and Publications Director General: Gerard O'Hanlon Enquiries: Census Enquiries Census Enquiries Section, LoCall: /1461/1464 census@cso.ie Queries and Sales Information Section, ext 5021 information@cso.ie Central Statistics Office The contents of this release may be quoted provided the source is given clearly and accurately. Reproduction for own or internal use is permitted. Ref 169/2010 ISSN Highest net outward migration since the late 1980s Emigration from Ireland in the twelve months to April 2010 is estimated to have remained broadly constant at 65,300 while the number of immigrants into Ireland fell sharply, from 57,300 to 30,800 over the same period. These combined changes have resulted in an increase in net outward migration from 7,800 in April 2009 to 34,500 in April This is the highest level of net outward migration since While the level of overall emigration remained constant, emigration among Irish nationals increased significantly in the year, from 18,400 in April 2009 to 27,700 this year; over the same period emigration of non-irish nationals fell from 46,800 in April 2009 to 37,600 in April Nationals of the EU12 States accounted for the bulk of this decline. The natural increase of the population remains very strong. The number of births was 74,100 in the twelve months to April 2010, while deaths stood at 28,200, resulting in a natural increase of 45,900, or just over 1 per cent of the population. The combined effect of strong natural increase and negative net migration resulted in an overall small increase in the population of 11,400 bringing the population estimate to 4.47 million in April The main features of the 2010 figures are: Of the 65,300 people who emigrated in the year to April 2010, Irish nationals were the largest group accounting for 27,700 or 42 per cent, (see Table 3). The number of immigrants from the EU12 States is estimated at 5,800 in the year to April 2010, representing a continuing decline from the peak of 52,700 in the year ending April 2007, (see Table 2). The estimated number of persons aged 65 years and over now exceeds a half a million for the first time ever. The overall population increase of 0.3 per cent was unevenly distributed across the regions, with the Mid-East showing the strongest growth at 1.6 per cent and Dublin showing the largest decrease of 0.3 per cent. For further information contact Declan Smyth on or Maire Hogarty on

2 Table 1 Components of the annual population change, Components of Population change Year ending April Births Deaths Natural Immigrants Emigrants Net Population increase migration change Preliminary 2

3 Table 2 Estimated Immigration classified by Sex and Nationality, Sex and Nationality Immigrants Irish UK Rest of EU EU USA Rest of world Total Irish UK Rest of EU EU USA Rest of world Total Irish UK Rest of EU EU USA Rest of world Total Preliminary Rest of EU15: countries before enlargement on 1 May 2004, i.e., Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Portugal. EU12: defined as the 10 accession countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 (i.e., Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia), and includes the 2 new accession states that joined the EU on 1 January 2007 (i.e., Bulgaria and Romania). 3

4 Table 3 Estimated Emigration classified by Sex and Nationality, Sex and Nationality Emigrants Irish UK Rest of EU EU Rest of world Total Irish UK Rest of EU EU Rest of world Total Irish UK Rest of EU EU Rest of world Total Preliminary Rest of EU 15: countries before enlargement on 1 May 2004, i.e., Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Portugal. EU12: defined as the 10 accession countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 (i.e., Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia), and includes the 2 new accession states that joined the EU on 1 January 2007 (i.e., Bulgaria and Romania). 4

5 Table 4 Estimated Migration classified by Sex and Country of Destination/Origin, Sex / Year ending April UK Emigrants Rest of EU 15 2 EU 12 3 USA Rest of world Total UK Immigrants Rest of EU 15 2 EU 12 3 USA Rest of world Total Net Migration Preliminary 2 Rest of EU 15 : countries before enlargement on 1 May 2004, i.e., Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Portugal. 3 EU 12: defined as the 10 accession countries who joined the EU on 1 May 2004 (i.e., Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia), and includes the 2 new accession states who joined the EU on 1 January 2007 (i.e., Bulgaria and Romania).

6 Table 5 Estimated Migration classified by Sex and Age Group, Emigrants Immigrants Sex / Year ending April and over Total and over Total Net Migration Preliminary

7 Table 6 Estimated Population classified by Sex and Age Group, SexandAgeGroup years " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " years and over Total 4, , , , , , , years " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " years and over Total 2, , , , , , , years " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " years and over Total 2, , , , , , , De Facto 2 Usual Residence 3 Preliminary in April of each year 7

8 Table 7 Estimated Population classified by Sex, Age Group and Regional Authority Area, April Sex and Age Group State Border Dublin Mid-East Midland Mid-West South- South- West East West 0-4 years " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " years and over Total years " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " years and over Total years " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " years and over Total Preliminary 8

9 Central Statistics Office Annual Population and Migration Estimates Background Notes Coverage Source of Migration data The population for 2006 classified by age, sex and region is taken from the Census of Population 2006, which was held in April that year. The reference period for the population estimates for subsequent years is mid-april each year, while the migration flows represent movements during the twelve months up to mid-april of the same year, as do births and deaths. The principal source of information for the estimation of the gross annual migration flows is the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS - formerly annual Labour Force Survey), which also provides the basis for the classification of the flows by sex, age group, origin/destination and nationality. The migration estimates are compiled against the backdrop of movements in other migration indicators such as the number of Personal Public Service (PPS) numbers allocated to non-irish nationals, the number of work permits issued/renewed and the number of asylum applications. Calculation of annual population estimates Annual population estimates for mid-april are calculated by trending forwards the most recent Census of Population data. For example, the base population data for estimating the April 2007 figure was the number of males and females in each region by single year of age as established by the Census of Population for From this base, each person was aged by one year, births for the period were added, and deaths were subtracted. The estimated number of immigrants was then added and the number of emigrants was subtracted. Allowance was also made for estimated inter-regional migration in arriving at the final 2007 figures. The end result of this overall process provided the population estimate for April 2007 which in turn provided the base population for calculating the April 2008 population estimate and so on for subsequent years. The population estimates are subject to revision once the definitive results of the next census become available. Emigration by nationality Usual residence and de facto population concepts The present release contains a new table on emigration by nationality which is being published for the years 2006 onwards. This has been made possible by analysing the data on persons sampled in the QNHS who on subsequent visits are found to have left the country. The destination of emigrants for 2009 was also based on this analysis and this therefore represents a discontinuity with previous years. This new analysis is part of ongoing work aimed at improving the methodology used to measure migration. Up to and including 2006 the annual population estimates were calculated using the de facto definition of population, i.e., and all persons present in the State on census night. Since 2007 onwards a new concept of usual residence has been used. I.e., all persons usually resident and present in the State on census night plus absent persons who are usually resident in Ireland but are temporarily away from home and outside the state on census night. All persons are now classified according to their region of usual residence. Table 6 in the release shows 2 columns of data for the year 2006, the first is the population count using the de facto definition and the second shows the population counted using this usually resident definition. As Table 6 shows, the difference between these two definitions is very small. 9

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