International Migration in a Sea of Islands: Challenges and Opportunities for Pacific Insular Spaces

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1 Connecting Worlds: Emigration, Immigration and Development in Insular Spaces, Angra do Heroismo, Azores, May 2008 International Migration in a Sea of Islands: Challenges and Opportunities for Pacific Insular Spaces Richard Bedford Population Studies Centre University of Waikato

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4 The Azores is big! The Azores is a big island group by Pacific standards -- 2,342 km 2, 238,000 people. Of the 22 Pacific countries and territories only 7 are as big or bigger in land area, and only 5 have populations over 238,000. Sao Miguel is a big island by Pacific country standards km 2, 130,000 people. More than half (13) of the Pacific countries/territories have smaller land areas and populations Sao Jorge, Pico and Faial are a close group in several ways, I am told. Their combined area and population are: 870 km 2, 39,000 people. 15 Pacific countries are smaller in land area, and 8 have a smaller population

5 The Azores in perspective The smallest Pacific independent countries are Nauru (one island, 21 km 2, 10,000 people) and Tuvalu (9 islands, 25 km 2, 10,000 people). The smallest self-governing country is Niue (one island, 234 km 2, 1,500 people). The Azores was uninhabited when Portuguese and others from Europe settled here from 15th century on. All the Pacific Island groups were inhabited when Europeans began arriving and settling from 17th century on. All Pacific countries have indigenous populations, including Australia and New Zealand. This makes for very different histories and identities.

6 The Azores in perspective cont. The Azores, while having many villages, is heavily urbanised by comparison with most Pacific countries. Villages in the Azores are like small urban communities compared with villages in the Pacific. The Azores has an extensive diaspora -- not sure how big it is but from what I have picked up from the presentations, it must be several times larger than the resident population of the Azores. This is also a feature of some Pacific countries, but it is not a feature of them all. Most of the ones with the biggest populations do not have a diaspora -- they have no international migration outlets. This is a major issue in our region and one I will come back to.

7 The Azores in perspective cont. The Azores as an Autonomous Region within Portugal has its own government, but it cannot make immigration policy, we heard yesterday. All of the independent Pacific countries and some of the semi-independent independent ones (like Niue) ) do have immigration policies, and they tend to be very strict in controlling who can settle in their countries, especially who can own land. They are much stricter than Australia or New Zealand, even though they feel our policies are very strict.

8 Insular integrated spaces? The Azores is part of a region of islands called Macaronesia -- a region defined by ancient Greek geographers The Pacific Islands are divided into three regions: Melanesia: the big continental islands of the western Pacific Micronesia: the small coral and coral/volcanic islands of the northern Pacific Polynesia: the many volcanic and coral islands of the eastern Pacific The Pacific nesias were all defined by European explorers -- they are not indigenous groupings

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10 A Pacific leaders challenge Leaders of the Pacific states and territories meet each year to review common development and security issues. In 2004 they strongly advised everyone to: Listen to the needs and aspirations of the burgeoning population of young people in the region, and recognise the impact of bigger and more youthful populations on the resources required for education and vocational training, healthcare and job opportunities

11 Pacific youth populations Sub-region Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia New Zealand Australia % tot pop yrs % growth

12 A demographic challenge Population (000) Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia

13 The population situation around 1800 Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia (000 s) , % Oceania 2,

14 The population situation around 1900 Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia (000 s) 810 3, , % Oceania 6,

15 The population situation around 2000 Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia (000 s) 3,780 19, , % Oceania 30,

16 The population situation around 2050 Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia (000 s) 5,000 26, ,100 1,100 % Oceania 47,

17 Population change, Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia ,870,000 10,840, ,000 4,370, , ,220,000 7,360, ,000 7,620, ,000 Oceania 17,780,000 17,090,000

18 Population change, (%) Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia Oceania

19 Four sets of islands The Five Pacifics Islands with rapid population growth Islands with slow population growth Islands with negative population growth Islands with no major outlets for international migration Islands on the rim: Australasia

20 Pacific mobility worlds Skills of out-migrants by out-migration rate 20

21 Number of Pacific-born living in OECD Countries,

22 Diverse demographies Australasia replacement migration? Polynesia depopulation or repopulation? Melanesia overpopulation or emigration? Micronesia decolonisation or recolonisation?

23 Supply of labour Australasia -- shortages of skilled and unskilled labour Polynesia shortages of skilled and unskilled labour in several countries Melanesia oversupply of labour, especially unskilled Micronesia shortages of skilled and unskilled labour in several countries

24 Resolving labour supply issues Australasia -- immigration of skilled labour; Working Holiday schemes for less skilled labour; Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme in NZ Polynesia immigration of skilled and some unskilled labour Melanesia absorbing surplus labour in rural areas and urban informal sector Micronesia immigration of skilled and unskilled labour

25 The Melanesian dilemma Small formal sectors to the economy Low percentages of population in urban residence (especially PNG, Solomons, Vanuatu) Increasing pressure on productive land resources and weak markets for rural commodities Very limited outlets for emigration of labour (especially PNG, Solomons,, Vanuatu)

26 The Micronesian dilemma Many islands are low-lying lying atolls and reef islands Fresh water comes from a ground water lense that is increasingly polluted Changing patterns of tropical storms, and higher king tides possibly associated with sea level rise, are further damaging water supplied The inhabitants of some whole countries may have to be resettled

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30 The Polynesian dilemma Most countries in Polynesia have extensive overseas populations (Niue( Niue: : 1,500 on the island; 25,000 in New Zealand and Australia) These are the classical MIRAB economies that Godfrey and his colleagues have written about, and Russell referred to yesterday The dilemma is: will these islands become places of residence just for the very young and the old? These are the islands in the Pacific that are being gentrified

31 Distinction between New Zealand and Australian migration programmes NZ s much stronger ties with the Pacific Special Migration Schemes Residents of the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau are New Zealand Citizens A Quota Scheme for Western Samoa Visa-waiver and Work Permit Schemes for Kiribati and Tuvalu (now finished) RSE Regional Seasonal Employment 31

32 Australia: Pacific-born, 1947 to

33 Total arrivals, Pacific citizens (March Years) Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia 79,400 34,600 1, ,200 88,500 3, , ,100 4,200 Pacific % increase 115, , ,

34 Approvals for residence (June Years) Australia NZ Total Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia Pacific % Melanesia

35 Approvals for residence -- Australia (June Years) Skills Family Other Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia Pacific NZ

36 Approvals for residence -- NZ (June Years) Skills Family Other Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia Pacific Australia

37 Model of AP-Australia migration system 37

38 Looking ahead Arguably the most contentious demographic issue confronting Australia and NZ in the Pacific during the next half century will be how to cope with pressure for an emigration outlet from Melanesia. Sustainable development in Melanesia will depend heavily on opportunities for young people to travel overseas for training and employment. Responding to the issues of population growth and employment provision in the Pacific is complicated by differences in immigration policies of Australia and NZ.

39 An old challenge Jobless young men get up to no good Unless New Zealand and Australia become much more involved and much more inventive in that involvement (easy to say, hard to do) we are up for endless patch- ups of armed peacekeepers, police, governance aid, rescue aid and development aid. The challenge is to find opportunity amid the problems Colin James, NZ Herald 12 Dec

40 A new challenge. Chinese in the Pacific -- a new wave (Crocombe 2007) A paradigm shift from the situation of the past 200 years during which English speaking Europeans were the dominant external presence, to one in which Asians, mostly ethnic Chinese will be the major external influence Ron Crocombe (2007) Asia in the Pacific Islands. Replacing the West. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific 40

41 Some consequences of competition Competition between Taiwan and China Wide spectrum of skilled, unskilled, permanent and temporary, legal and illegal Also heavy investment, involvement in media virtual as well as actual presence Association with crime Significant illegal migration 41

42 Building on a legacy of co-operation operation The Global Commission on International Migration (2005) concluded that migration policies at all levels should be guided by several principles including greater consultation and co-operation operation between states at the regional level. Efforts to promote this regional co-operation operation must be based on an appreciation of the close linkages between international migration and other key policy issues including trade, aid, state security, human security and human rights.