Ratnakar Adhikari International Consultant UNDP

Transcription

1 Ratnakar Adhikari International Consultant UNDP

2 } Trade and development issues in Northeast Asia (NEA) } Regional trade integration and trade facilitation (TF) } Trade facilitation status } Preliminary results of the study } Possible ideas/initiatives

3 } Most countries in the NEA region are highly dependent on international trade Figure 1: Trade to GDP ratios of NEA countries, } Their trade to GDP ratios have grown remarkably between 1989 and 2011 } Mongolia, followed by Republic of Korea (ROK) are the two most trade dependent economies, although China achieved remarkable growth in the last 2 decades Source: World Development Indicators

4 } Barring periods of global economic crises and debt crisis, they have been able achieve significant export growth } In 2012, together they generated 21.8 % of world exports and 19.1% imports } Today, China is the world s largest exporter, followed by Japan at fourth, ROK at seventh and Russian Federation at eighth Figure 2: Export growth rates in NEA countries, Source: Based on data from ITC Trademap

5 Table 1: Intra-regional trade share in world trade NEA NEA excluding Mongolia and the Democratic Republic of Korea Country China Japan Republic of Korea Russian Federation Korea, Dem. Rep Mongolia Total Source: Author s Calculation Based on data from WITS and ITC Trademap

6 } Without any formal trade agreement regional trade is growing despite relatively high most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs e.g.: Republic of Korea 12.1% China % Russian Federation - 9.1% } If a regional trade agreement is signed, it would significantly reduce these barriers for intra-regional trade, which would significantly contribute to enhance trade for which more trade facilitation is required } Rate of intra-regional trade growth has been particularly rapid in the periods of economic crisis or debt crisis, so regional trade is a cushion against excessive dependence on developed countries market

7 } Due to robust growth in Gross National Income per capita (all the NEA countries, expect for Japan), increased purchasing power of consumers in these countries Between 2003 and 2011, average growth: China : 10.27% ROK : 3.32 % Mongolia : 6.52 % Russian Federation : 4.81% } Due to discernible shift towards slicing up the value chain and emergence of global value chain production processes are being integrated regionally whether to serve regional or international market. TF important for both export and imports

8 Table 2: Table Bilateral trade costs (US$) in 2009 Country Sectors China Japan China Japan Republic of Korea Russian Federation Korea, Rep. Russia Singapore USA Agriculture Manufactured N/A Total Agriculture Manufactured 65.8 N/A Total Agriculture Manufactured N/A Total Agriculture Manufactured N/A Total Source: World Bank International Trade Costs.

9 Table 3: Export trade costs for trading across borders (%GDP per capita, 2012) Export procedures China Japan Korea, Rep. Mongoli a Russia Singapor e Malaysi a Thailand Documents preparation 4.35% 0.21% 0.22% 3.95% 0.89% 0.22% 0.82% 3.20% Customs clearance and technical control Ports and terminal handling Inland transportation and handling 1.31% 0.18% 0.07% 4.36% 6.13% 0.10% 0.58% 0.91% 2.30% 0.54% 0.44% 4.08% 3.21% 0.29% 1.16% 2.92% 1.56% 0.95% 2.21% 57.17% 9.87% 0.27% 1.64% 3.65% Total 9.52% 1.88% 2.94% 69.56% 20.09% 0.88% 4.19% 10.69% Source: Trade Cost data from GDP per capita from World Bank

10 Preliminary results of the study in the GTR

11 China } Export Supply capacity Buyer identification Technical requirements and standards Regional transportation } Import Import procedure Supplier identification Tariff barriers Regional transportation Domestic transportation ROK } Export Buyer identification Para-tariff barriers Regional transportation Transit issues } Import Regional transportation Supplier identification Import procedure Transit issues

12 Mongolia } Export Supply capacity Regional transportation Transit issues Domestic transportation Tariff barriers } Import Supplier identification Regional transportation Domestic transportation Para-tariff barriers Transit issues Russian Federation } Export Tariff barriers Para-tariff barriers Non-tariff barriers Access to imported inputs Quality requirements } Import Tariff barriers Para-tariff Non-tariff barriers Import procedures

13 } As an example, in China, among border agencies Revenue and Customs, Immigration Services and Security seem to have high level of understanding of TF issues compared to others Figure 3: Relative understanding of TF issues by border agencies (China)

14 } As an example, in Korea, infrastructure of customs and revenue, security agencies and immigration are considered relatively better Figure 5: Relative infrastructure quality of border agencies (Korea)

15 } For example, in Mongolia, use of ICT, mutual recognition agreement and post clearance audit was relatively better compared to other measures Figure 6: Current status of TF measures (Mongolia)

16 } Competition within some trade support facilities/infrastructure providing agencies is limited, which results in higher service charges } Visa regime in particular for business travelers is found to be burdensome: Average cost : US$ 279/visit Time for obtaining visa: 32 days } There is a lack of dedicated, institutionalized mechanism for consultation with private sector on trade facilitation; almost non-existent at the provincial level

17 Free trade agreement within the sub-region Operation of a regional single window by linking all the national single windows Implementation of authorized economic operators system at the country level followed by signing of a mutual recognition agreement within the region Enactment and implementation of competition law at the country level Institutionalizing the process of organizing regular trade forums/fairs in major cities of the GTR region on a rotational basis Easing visa process and reducing costs Creation of institutionalized mechanism for

18 Thank you