Basis for local development planning Author: Klemen Kotnik, B.Sc. Geography

Transcription

1 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY Basis for local development planning Author: Klemen Kotnik, B.Sc. Geography

2 Yesterday and today environmental, today and tomorrow demographic problems! Slovenia 1953 Slovenia 2010 Slovenia Old 65 years and more Young up to 20 years increase decrease SLOVENIA % CM Celje % SLOVENIA % CM Celje % Number of women in»most«fertility period (20-34 let), Slovenia CM Koper % CM Koper % CM Kranj % CM Kranj % CM Ljubljana % CM Maribor % CM Murska Sobota % CM Nova Gorica % CM Ljubljana % CM Maribor % CM Murska Sobota % CM Nova Gorica % CM Novo Mesto % CM Novo Mesto % CM Ptuj % CM Slovenj Gradec % CM Ptuj % CM Slovenj Gradec % ocena 2020 ocena 2030 CM Velenje % CM Velenje %

3 Yesterday and today environmental, today and tomorrow demographic problems! Demographic potential is a consequence to past demographic events. It is represented by an age-sex composition of the population. The consequences of reducing the number of births in the last twenty years, consequently reflect on the number of people under 20 years of age. In terms of the number of births a reduction of the number of women entering the fertile period is particulary alarming! Around 132,000 women live in Slovenia today aged 20 to 30 and "only" 95,000 girls up to 10 years of age. This is certainly not a positive basis for possible growth of the number of births in the future! The trend of increased number of births in the last few years will be rapidly reducted according to reducing number of women in fertile period. Even with the increased birth rate won t be possible to compensate less women in fertile period! Despite the relative stagnation of the number of population the relationship between age groups is collapsing. In the last ten years the number of young people (up to 20 years of age) decreased by 14% and the number of old (over 60 years of age) increased by 20%! The population of the age group 60 to 70 years is larger than the number of young people 0 to 10 years old!

4 Yesterday and today environmental, today and tomorrow demographic problems! Why demographic study? Socio-economic and especially demographic image is concerned. It is characterized by low birth rate, collapse of the "normal" relation between the individual age groups, migration, and consequently the specific educational and economic structure, t poor differentiation of working places, etc.. In the current situation all this indicators are rather interfering than accelerating development. The current state t of the environment, or activity it of locall communities, is therefore increasingly characterized by factors that have been in the past 20 years (to a large extent still are), from "engaging with or orientation in the environment," pushed into the background. Today and in future trend will only intensify, it has a significant impact on development of local communities. Without a clearly defined demographic policies, without a clearly defined demographic goals that would lead to economic, social and other goals, with no idea how to increase the accountability of the current population to future generations and social sustainability of the company viability, usefulness and ultimately the viability of the Strategic - Development Plans, whether they are as good, thoughtful, thorough and supported by various lobbies are questionable.

5 Yesterday and today environmental, today and tomorrow demographic problems! Basics of demographic study More and more urgent demographic problems in the municipality. The lack of studies on demographic changes and planning the current and future dynamics of demographic change. Low level of awareness of demographic changes and its consequences. Lack of awareness among planners about the importance of integrated development of demographic changes for such a development. Unsuitability or lack of concrete spatial and other strategies, programs, plans... that would be adjusted to demographic changes, even if such plans are often not appropriate - issues related to demographics are very complex, so the solutions are not simple and unambiguous.

6 Yesterday and today environmental, today and tomorrow demographic problems! Study objectives Review and analysis of demographic, socio-economic and settlement state of the municipality area and a complete analysis of the causes for the current situation - model approach. Preparation of projections and trends to 2030 Awareness (of different public groups) on demographic changes, their dynamics and consequences. Expected results Formulation of the strategy of future development in order to influence the change in values - preparing a set of recommendations for decision makers in the field of spatial planning. Preparation of basis for the spatial, economic, social and other plans or strategies. Opportunity to exchange experiences and knowledge about adjustments to the integrated planning processes to demographic change. Model of investment proposals for concrete steps in model areas.

7 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY CITY MUNICIPALITY OF VELENJE Contents I. Brief overview of population development from the end of WW2 to 1991 II. Period , 2007 (compared to Slovenia and Slovene city-municipalities) 1. Demographic, socio-economic features of population population, population density, population by sex natality (birth rate), mortality (death rate), natural increase age structure educational attainment ethnic affiliation migration (internal, international) labour force, persons in employment, unemployed persons etc. 2. Settlement characteristics typology of settlements general characteristics of urbanisation land use etc. III. Trends and population projections, 2030

8 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY CITY-MUNICIPALITY (CM) OF VELENJE Area of expertise CM of Velenje (settlements) Slovenia (city-municipalities) PODGORJE PLEŠIVEC ŠKALE PODKRAJ PRI VELENJU VELENJE KAVČE ŠKALSKE ŠMARTINSKE CIRKOVCE CIRKOVCE HRASTOVEC ŠENBRIC PAKA PRI VELENJU LAZE LOŽNICA ARNAČE PAŠKI KOZJAK LOPATNIK PRI VELENJU BEVČE LOPATNIK LIPJE JANŠKOVO PIREŠICA SELO VINSKA GORA PRELSKA CM NOVA GORICA CM KOPER CM KRANJ CM LJUBLJANA CM SLOVENJ GRADEC CM VELENJE CM CELJE CM NOVO MESTO CM MARIBOR CM PTUJ CM MURSKA SOBOTA SILOVA ČRNOVA

9 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Population ( ) year 1961: ; year 1991: ; year 2000: ; year 2007: ; almost 80 % of population live in Velenje centre of CM of Velenje Population number increase 50% in več 40-49% 30-39% 20-29% 10-19% 0-9% Population number decrease 0-9% 10-19% 20-29% 30-39% 40-49% 50% in več

10 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Natality (Birth rate) year 2007: 9,3 (316 live births; 158 men, 158 women) 7th place among city-municipalities; 0,4 below Slovene average : 8,3 9,7. The highest was in year 1995 (323 live births), the lowest in year 2000 (284 live births) total birth rate : 1,7 average age of women at childbirth (2007): 27,5 years average age of women at first childbirth (2007): 26 years number of live births / women at age (2007): 36,5 there are no major differences between Velenje an other settlements in CM of Velenje 2007: 9,3 2007: 9,7 9,3 93 9,3 10,5 9,7 7,5 9 8,7 9,1 12,2 10 9,6 9,9 11,2 Birth rate above 10 9,1-10 8,1-9 below 8

11

12 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Mortality (death rate) 2007: 6,2 (211 deaths; 113 men, 98 women) the lowest death rate among city-municipalities, 3 below Slovene average : 53 5,3 6,3 ( deaths) main reason for relatively low death rate: specific development of this area after WW2 still relatively favourable age structure of population 2007: 9,2 10,6 8,4 89 8,9 6,2 9,6 8,1 9,2 8,6 8,5 9,2 8,3 Death rate above 10 9,1-10 8,1-9 7,1-8 below 7

13 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Natural increase 2007: 3,1 (105; 45 men and 60 women) the highest natural increase among city-municipalities, 2,5 above Slovene average : 22 2,2 47 4,7 relatively high rate of natural increase is more than consequence of high birth rate consequence of low death rate 2007: 0,6-3,1 0,4 04 0,4 3,1-0,6 2,3 0,5 1,4 0,3 1,5 2,8 Natural increase above 3 2,1-3 1,1-2 0,1-1 Natural decrease 0-1 1,1-2 2,1-3 above 3

14 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Age structure average age 2007: 39,4 years (37,7 years men and 41,1 years women) the lowest average age among city-municipalities, 2 years below Slovene average more and more unfavourable relation among age groups the largest age group is within 40 and 60 years age group let is more numerous (3.029) than 0 10 year (3.012) group number of girls under age of 10: (445 less than 10 years ago) age group (women years): AGE GROUPS Young 0-14 years 1991: 24,7% (8.257 p.) 1996: 19,2% (6.638 p.) Mature years 1991: 70,3% ( p.) 1996: 73,9% ( p.) Old 65 years and more 1991: 5,0% (1.673 p.) 1996: 6,9% (2.358 p.) 2007: 13,2% (4.522 p.) 2007: 75,5% ( p.) 2007: 11,3% (3.859 p.)

15

16 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Age structure comparison between year 1991, year 2002 and year in v eč 80 do do do do do do do do do do do do do 24 WOMEN or less MEN or less do do 14 5 do 9 do M-1991 M-2002 M-2007 Ž-1991 Ž-2002 Ž more together more together

17 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Migration total net migration 2007: 359 (10,5 ) between municipalities: - 278; from abroad: 637 total net migration : - 9,7 to 10,5 between municipalities: - 1,6 to - 8,9 from abroad: ,8 do 18, migration decrease was p. (5% of CM of Velenje population) relatively the largest decrease among city-municipalities net migration between municipalities net migration from abroad total net migration

18 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Education the result of specific socio-economic development no education: 212 (0,7 %) above Slovene average (0,6 %) incomplete basic educational attainment: (4,5 %) below Slovene average (6,2 %) basic educational attainment : (25,6 %) below Slovene average (26 %) upper secondary educational attainment: (58,5 %) above Slovene average (54 %) short term tertiary educational attainment: (4,6 %) below Slovene average (5 %) higher undergraduate educational attainment: (5,5 %) below Slovene average (6,9 %) higher post-graduate: 156 (0,55 %) below Slovene average (1 %) Labour migration number of daily migrants from CM of Velenje to other municipalities in year 2007: (in year 2000: 2.500) labour migration in to 118 municipalities the most intense labour migration flows: Šaleška valley, Savinjska statistical region, Koroška statistical region, Ljubljana Number of daily migrants from CM of Velenje above below 10

19 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Labour migration number of daily migrants from other municipalities to CM of Velenje 2007: labour migration from 148 Slovene municipalities migrants occupy 40% working places the most intense labour migration flows: 80% from Savinjska statistical region 15% from Koroška statistical region above % from other municipalities proportion of migrants from Velenje to other municipalities increases much faster than proportion of daily migrants from opposite direction Educational migration number of daily educating people p (on different school levels) in CM of Velenje 2007: pupils and students; from CM of Velenje, from 80 other municipalities (Šoštanj, Žalec, Mislinja, Slovenj Gradec, Celje ) daily educational migration from CM of Velenje to other municipalities (30): some Number of daily migrants in to CM of Velenje pupils and students (especially students) (Celje, Maribor, Slovenj Gradec, Ljubljana) below 10

20 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Labour force labour force 2002: (50,8 %), above Slovene average and the highest percentage among city-municipalities labour force : 6 % growth (1.820 p.) Labour force above 50% Persons in employment persons in employment 2007 (working in CM of Velenje): ; 2,2 % more than in year 2006 and 8 % more than in year 1999 persons in employment (living in CM of Velenje): ; 4,5% more than in year 1991 Persons in number (share) of persons in employment compared to employment total population p of CM of Velenje is60%; one of the major above 92% 88,1-92% indicators of economic development of the area 46-50% 41-45% % 84,1-88% 80-84% below 80%

21 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Persons in paid employment number 2007: : 7,6% growth persons in paid employment by legal persons: self-employed persons: 947 persons in paid employment by self-employed persons: individual private entrepreneurs: Persons in paid employment Persons in paid employment by legal persons own accounts workers: primary sector: 1 % secondary sector: 58 % tertiary and quaternary sector: 41 %

22 Some characteristics of demographic and socio-economic outlook of CM of Velenje Unemployment number of unemployed persons (2007): (631 men, 713 women) unemployment rate: 6,8% (0,3% above Slovene average), 7. place among city-municipalities unemployment by educational attainment: I. and II. level: 33,4%; III. and IV. level: 24.8%; V. level: 31,3%; VI. level: 3,6%; VII. and VIII. level: 7%; compared to Slovenia there is more unemployed persons with III., IV., V. and VI. level of education and less of those with I., II. VII. and VIII. level of education 25 % of unemployed persons is under 25 years of age, 45 % under 30 years of age (2-2,5 x above Slovene average), over 50 years of age is 12 % below of Slovene average

23 Demographic potential of MC of Velenje Year number and predicted number and predicted number and predicted number and predicted number and predicted number of births number of women in fertile number of women number of women number of girls period (15-49 year) (10-19 year) (20-29 year) (0-9 let)

24 Projections of population of CM of Velenje I. According to natural change of population I. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: 1,278 (average ) permanent for entire period of projection Net migration: 0; II. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: : 1,278 (average ); : 14; 1,4; : 2022: 15; 1,5; : 2027: 1,6; : 1,7; Net migration: 0; III. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: : 1,4; : 1,6; : 1,7; : 20; 2,0; : 2032: 20; 2,0; Net migration: 0; Year population number (0-14 years) number (15-64 years) number (65 years and over) I. var II. var III. var I. var II. var III. var I. var II. var III. var I. var II. var III. var

25 Projections of population of CM of Velenje II. According to natural and migrational change of population IV. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: 1,278 (average ) permanent for entire period of projection Net migration: 0; internal -200; abroad +200 VII. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: 1,278 (average ) permanent for entire period of projection Net migration: 200; internal -200; abroad +400 V. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: : 1,278 (average ); : 14; 1,4; : 2022: 15; 1,5; : 2027: 1,6; : 1,7; Net migration: 0; internal -200; abroad +200 VIII. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: : 1,278 (average ); : 1,4; : 1,5; : 1,6; : 1,7; Net migration: 200; internal -200; abroad +400 VI. Variant Starting point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: : 1,4; : 1,6; : 1,7; : 20; 2,0; : 2032: 20; 2,0; Net migration: 0; internal -200; abroad +200 IX. Variant Starting ti point: population by sex Mortality: mortality coefficient (average ) permanent for entire period of projection; Natality: : 1,4; ; : 1,6; : 1,7; : 2,0; : 2,0; Net migration: 200; internal -200; abroad +400

26 Projections of population of CM of Velenje II. According to natural and migrational change of population p Year IV. var population number (0-14 years) number (15-64 years) number (65 years and over) V. var VI. var IV. var V. var VI. var IV. var V. var VI. var IV. var V. var VI. var Year Leto Število population prebivalcev share Deleži (0-14 (0-14 years) let) share Deleži (15-64 (15-64 years) let) share Deleži (65 years (65 let and in over) več) IV. var V. var VI. var IV. var V. var VI. var IV. var V. var VI. var IV. var V. var VI. var ,2% 13,2% 13,2% 75,5% 75,5% 75,5% 11,3% 11,3% 11,3% ,1% 13,1% 13,4% 73,3% 73,3% 73,1% 13,6% 13,6% 13,5% ,8% 13,2% 14% 70% 69,6% 69% 17,2% 17,2% 17% ,9% 12,8% 14% 66% 65,3% 64,5% 22,1% 21,9% 21,5% ,5% 11,9% 13,6% 63,5% 62,4% 61,3% 26% 25,7% 25,1% % 9,1% 11,1% 1% 12,8% 61,9% 60,6% 6% 59,8% 29% 28,3% 27,4%

27 Projections of population of CM of Velenje II. According to natural and migrational change of population Year VII. var population number (0-14 years) number (15-64 years) number (65 years and over) VIII. var IX. var VII. var VIII. var IX. var VII. var VIII. var IX. var VII. var VIII. var IX. var Year VII. var population share (0-14 -years) share Deleži ( years) let) share Deleži (65 (65 years let and in več) over) VIII. var IX. var VII. var VIII. var IX. var VII. var VIII. var IX. var VII. var VIII. var IX. var ,2% 13,2% 13,2% 75,5% 75,5% 75,5% 11,3% 11,3% 11,3% % 13% 13,4% 73,5% 73,5% 73,1% 13,5% 13,5% 13,5% ,7% 13% 13,9% 70,8% 70,5% 69,8% 16,5% 16,5% 16,3% ,4% 12,3% 13,6% 68,2% 67,5% 66,5% 20,4% 20,2% 19,9% ,9% 11,4% 13% 66,3% 65,2% 64,1% 23,8% 23,4% 22,9% ,7% 10,6% 12,2% 65,2% 63,9% 63,1% 26,1% 25,5% 24,7%

28