UNLEASHING GROWTH AND STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN

Transcription

1 UNLEASHING GROWTH AND STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN Sebastian Acevedo IMF Western hemisphere Department Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten March 22, 218

2 The Caribbean has made significant strides Demographic, Economic, and Social Indicators 215 or latest available Caribbean median EMDE median EMDE 25th-75th percentile 12, GDP per Capita (U.S. dollars) 78 Life Expectancy (years) 6 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1, live births) 7 Female Labor-force Participation Rate (percent) Voice and Accountability (percentile rank) 1 1, , , , , , 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,

3 but real GDP has lagged since the 2s for tourism-intensive economies Real GDP EMDE inter-quartile range Caribbean tourism-intensive economies Caribbean commodity exporter economies EMDEs GDP per Capita EMDE inter-quartile range Caribbean tourism-intensive economies Caribbean commodity exporter economies EMDEs Real GDP growth (decade average) s Slower Convergence 198s 199s 2s GDP per capita relative to USA Notes: Commodity exporter economies are Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. Tourism-intensive economies includes all other Caribbean countries.

4 Self-reinforcing structural and macro impediments to growth Structural Impediments Natural disasters Violent crime Brain drain High costs of doing business Loss of preferential trade access and official development assistance Declining Growth Macroeconomic Impediments Weak fiscal positions and elevated levels of public debt High non-performing loans Low financial deepening and inclusion

5 A DIAGNOSTIC

6 High levels of debt mean very little fiscal buffers Government Debt Caribbean non-caribbean small states non-caribbean EMDEs EMDE Asia Non-CRB commodity Latin America LICs GUY Non-CRB small TTO SUR KNA BHS VCT DMA LCA GRD ATG BLZ BRB JAM Government Debt, 216 Domestic Foreign EMDE median % GDP Illustrative Adjustment to Reach 6 Percent Debt Ratio in 1 Years 14 Additional adjustment needed Projected adjustment (next 5 years) VCT GUY BHS LCA BLZ SUR BRB TTO Median debt in Caribbean highest in ½ century and 3 percentage points higher than EMDE

7 and structural factors constrain growth High Costs of Doing Business EODB international ranking (217) SUR GRD BRB GUYVCT KNA BLZ BHS ATG DMA LCA TTO JAM GDP per capita, PPP$, log Source: World Bank and IMF Staff Calculations. Heat Map: Characteristics Relevant for Growth and Prosperity (Ranking across country groups) Violent Crime Emigration Skilled Emigration Human Capital Natural Disasters Government Debt Taxation NPLs Ease of Doing Business Competitiveness Bureaucracy Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption Trade Openness Trade Tariff Trade Connectivity Gvc Participation High-Tech Export Share Export Diversification Tourism- Commodity Non-CRB Intensive Exporter small CRB Economies CRB Economies states Note: Red = less favorable ranking; green = more favorable ranking.

8 Energy costs are high and volatile in the Caribbean Caribbean Residential Electricity Tariffs (22-212) 1/ (In US /kwh) High Median Low US Tariff rate / includes data for the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines; limited data available for Antigua and Barbuda and Nevis; excludes Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname Source: CARILEC Tariff Survey (212)and U.S. EIA database. Constrained firms share Electricity Constraints GUY BLZ JAM VCT SUR GRD DMA KNA LCA BRB ATG BHS TTO GDP per capita, PPP$, log

9 Access to finance remains constrained for SMEs Loan-Deposit Spreads (%) Caribbean: Access to Credit as Major Constraint (% SMEs that responded "yes") 7 LAC average JAM DOM BRB ATG TTO KNA LCA BHS AE Source: World Bank Enterprise Survey and IMF staff calculations Collateral Needed (% of loan) BHS GUY GRD DOM TTO VCT SUR KNA BRB ATG JAM LCA DMA Sources: : World Bank Enterprise Survey and IMF staff calculations BLZ JAM LCA ATG KNA BHS BRB TTO DOM AE Source: World Bank Enterprise Survey and IMF staff calculations.

10 Elevated crime rates impose significant costs on the economy 8 6 Elevated Violent Crime SLV HND VEN Crime-related Costs (% GDP) 4.7 Social costs Private costs Government costs Homocide rate 4 2 JAM GUY GRD SUR BLZ VCT LCA ATG DMA KNA BHS TTO BRB GDP per capita, PPP$, log Percentage of GDP Bahamas (213) Barbados (214) Jamaica (214) Trinidad and Tobago (213) Sources: InterAmerican Development Bank

11 Brain drain is a drag on growth despite positive effect of remittances 1 Brain Drain Net Effect of Migration and Remittances on GDP Growth, (percent of GDP) Skilled emigration rate JAM BRB ATG GRD DMA KNA VCT BHS BLZ LCA SUR TTO GDP per capita, PPP$, log Sources: IMF Staff calculations

12 Loss of competitiveness, particularly in tourism, partly driven by higher prices Caribbean Tourist Arrivals, Market Share (In percent) Index Expedia, January 217 (3-5 star hotel average, Bahamas = 1) Caribbean Sources: WDI; and IMF staff calculations TCA ATG KNA VGB BRB CYM SXM GRD LCA BHS VIR ABW JAM DOM CUW BMU BLZ PRI VCT DMA Americas Europe MEX MIA CRI NIC HAW HND PAN GTM SLV GRC ESP Asia MDV FJI IDN MYS THA Africa SYC MUS CPV GMB Sources: UNDP/UN Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) Rates and Fund staff calculations. Notes: Room rate: see Taxi, Meals, Water, Beer, Coffee: see cost-of-living/ and Total Cost without Tax = 7 * (3 star hotel) + 2 * (average taxi ride from main international airport to capital city) + 7 * (1 inexpensive meal + 2 mid-range meals)+ 7* (2 liters water) + 7*(.5 liter beer) + 7* (coffee). AUS

13 UNLEASHING GROWTH

14 Diversifying the energy matrix to shield prices from oil fluctuations Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Use (In Percent of Total) World Caribbean 1/ Nuclear Electric Power Renewable Energy 2/ 3/ Coal Natural Gas Petroleum 1/ Excludes T&T and Haiti 2/ Includes hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/pv, wind, and biomass 3/ For the Caribbean, renewables include hydropower and biomass Source: EIA; IDB: and IMF staff Caculations Jamaica: Energy Generation Matrix 94% 62% 15% 36% 31% 2% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3% (proj) Biomass Renewables LNG Diesel/Oil Sources: Jamaica Ministry of Science, Energy and Technology and IMF Staff calculations

15 Loosening constraints to financial inclusion and improving access to finance Effect on GDP (cumulative change in GDP level) Participation Spreads Collateral Non-linear effect Total 1 5 Effect on GINI (cumulative change in GINI) 2 1 BRB LCA ATG TTO BHS JAM KNA DOM Participation Spreads Collateral Non-linear effect Total KNA DOM BHS JAM BRB ATG LCA TTO Sources: IMF Staff Calculations Sources: IMF Staff Calculations

16 A multi-pronged approach to reduce crime Prevention and deterrence Parenting and mentoring programs Urban Renewal Victims support Enforcement and detection Data collection and sharing Targeted measures Rigorous evaluation of approaches Rehabilitation and integration Treatment Skills training Job market opportunities

17 Essential to build resilience to natural disasters Does it Pay to Prepare/Prevent? 12 1 Break-even point Benefit-cost ratios Vaccinations Improved water and sanitation Early warning systems Nutritional interventions Earthquakes Floods Tropical storms Measures to reduce damage from: Sources: World Bank and IMF Staff Calculations

18 Unleashing Growth in the Caribbean 3 2 Illustrative Medium-term Growth Gains (Percentage points per year; deviation from baseline) Greater human capital Less debt Greater ease of doing business Deeper trade integration Lower crime Lower disaster damage 1 TTO LCA GUY BRB SUR JAM VCT BLZ DMA ATG BHS GRD KNA Sources: IMF Staff calculations

19 Conclusions and Key Takeaways Macro stability is necessary but not sufficient Thin fiscal buffers to serve as shock absorbers Strengthen macro fundamentals and fiscal sustainability Structural reforms are key to unleashing sustained and resilient growth Need multipronged approach Energy costs Financial inclusion Crime Strengthen resilience to natural disasters

20 THANK YOU!