The Fallout from Brexit: What to watch out for?

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1 The Fallout from Brexit: What to watch out for? Brexit: the Direct Aftermath By the close of play on Friday, 24 June, in the wake of the announcement that the British people had voted to leave the European Union, $2 trillion had been wiped off the world economy. Early Monday, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, in anticipation of another dark day on the markets, went before the press in an effort to bring calm and arrest the plunge of both the Pound and the Stock Exchange. Initially, the markets were calmer on opening than had been expected, but by the close of play, the FTSE 100 had fallen by another 156 points, the Pound had reached an historic 31 year low and was trading at 1.2 Euros, and the UK saw its credit rating downgraded two notches from AAA to AA. This economic tsunami has sent reverberations throughout the world economy, with Asian economic ministers standing ready to intervene to reduce the impact on their domestic markets, and the Dow Jones stock exchange in the USA also losing 273 points. The official procedure to execute Brexit, which takes two years in total, hasn t been started yet by the UK. Amid all this economic chaos, it is hard to see any opportunity at all. What good could come of Brexit for the rest of Europe, companies, and politicians? Economic Opportunities for the EU One of the major potential opportunities, relating to Britain s financial sector, could come if the eventual deal struck between the EU and Britain removes Britain s passporting rights. Currently, many international banks are housed in London, and provide services to the continent from there. However, if Britain exits the single market, which seems the most likely scenario, if Britain s Leave campaigners are to honour the promises on immigration they made during their campaign, then banks based in London would no longer be able to provide services to the continent freely, as it would no longer be a part of the European Economic Area, and thus would not have freedom of establishment and freedom to provide services. HSBC is one of the banks that threatened to move operations away from London in the event of Brexit. As it already has a head office in Paris, this is a simpler task for HSBC than others who do not already have a European base. The large American contingent of banks are said to be considering Paris Frankfurt and Dublin as new legal home bases. Ireland could stand to benefit greatly from this, given its status as the only native English-speaking nation remaining in the EU. One survey by the Institute of Directors in the UK suggested that as many as 100,000 jobs could be displaced from London in the financial sector alone, while 1 in 5 of the poll of 1000 business leaders said they were considering moving their business elsewhere. There is therefore an opportunity to be gained from the dismantling of the current financial capital of Europe in the event of the UK leaving the EEA. Economic Challenges for the EU However, it is not all good news for the remaining states of the EU. While Britain operates a huge trade deficit with Europe, meaning that it buys from far more than it sells to the EU, the consequences of Brexit are likely to impact on the demand for EU goods and services, as potential tariffs and the recessing UK economy, as well as the reduced value of the pound, all serve to increase the cost of imports from the EU for the UK. Given that the

2 importance of the UK as a trade partner derives from its upstream position in supply chains, Brexit will complicate these supply chains and could increase costs, if tariff barriers are erected between the EU and the UK. Given the UK s heavy dependence on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), it is unlikely to watch on passively while FDI drains from its shores to the EU indeed, free of the regulatory burdens of the EU, Britain could pursue large-scale deregulation of taxation and social regulations to undercut Europe and continue to attract FDI. This could both distort location investment choices and draw investment away from Europe, it could force governments to compete with the UK, which could be beneficial to the businesses operating inside the EU or force the UK to reach bilateral trade agreements with the remaining Member States. If Britain leaves the single market, the mutual recognition of industry standards between states will no longer apply to Britain so while it will be de facto free of the red tape of European regulations, in practice, if it wishes to export its goods and services to Europe, they will have to comply with European Directives in order to be legally imported to the EU. Changing Power Balance of the EU Political Order The United Kingdom is one of the most economically liberal states, behind only the Netherlands in this regard. Other liberal economic states include Ireland, and the Nordic states. Between these states, if they form an alliance with Germany, they can form a blocking minority in Council votes. Germany effectively stands as an intermediary between liberal UK and her allies, and social France and her allies. Without the UK, the smaller, less economically impactful liberal states will be underrepresented. Germany will have to play a more adversarial role than it does at present, and even if the top 10 most liberal EU states ally with Germany, they would not form a blocking minority 35% of votes. Some might counter that this is a good thing, as with the inherently Eurosceptical UK out of the picture, the path is clear for the pursuit of the federalist European Dream of greater integration. Others fear that there could be a growth in anti-eu sentiment in other nations, with Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and France all harbouring strong anti-eu forces. British personnel in representative positions will be expected to leave, although British civil servants of the administrative corpuses of both the Commission and the Parliament will be ring-fenced from Brexit. Nonetheless, with the loss of British Parliamentarians, the balance of members between European Parliamentary groups will also alter: ECR, the group set up by the British Conservative party (with the Dutch political parties ChristenUnie and SGP as its members), would lose 21 of 75 members. Meanwhile, the EFDD group, Nigel Farage s European political colours (no Dutch political party represented here), would lose 22 of its 46 members, and thus fall under the threshold of criteria required for its existence, which would therefore cause it to disband. In the Commission, Jonathan Hill, the UK Commissioner, has already handed in his resignation. However, while the UK has been historically underrepresented in the corpus of 2

3 the Commission, with its 1000 workers putting it below Poland and just above Greece, Eurocrats from the UK do enjoy privilege of position, with Brits in director-level posts in policy areas of Taxation and Customs Union, Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Financial Stability and Competition. Indeed, there is a recognizably British flavor to EU policy in Digital Single Market, Trade and Energy policy. While it is likely that these personnel will be allowed to stay on in the European civil service corpus, it is thought that their career progression might be limited by the exit of the UK from the EU. Financially, there will be a large black hole in the EU budget that must either be filled by the remaining Member States, or must be made up by reduced spending. Giving that Britain was the second largest net contributor to the EU budget, Germany will now see its financial position as main benefactor strengthen, which might make it more difficult for other nations to stand up to Germany on all matters financial. Country Watch: Who stands to gain? And lose? The departure of the second largest economy, and one of the most liberal economies, will certainly have important ramifications for the power balance between those left behind. The two traditional powerhouses, France and Germany, will be the obvious candidates to fill the vacuum of power left behind by the British: Germany with its economic clout; and France with its political ideals and visions for a United, Social Europe. Less obvious is the effect that this turn of events could have on Italy, now the third most important economy of the bloc, and in stark contrast to Britain, staunchly European in identity. While Italy has a smaller population and no nuclear power, Italy s military is now the third most powerful on the continent. Could the departure of Britain cue a new role of Italian leadership at the summit of the EU? Similarly protective of the welfare state, do not be surprised to see Italy and France clubbing together to form a powerful alliance going forward. One surprise long-term beneficiary of Brexit could be the Republic of Ireland. As a native English-speaking country, many businesses currently housed in the UK but looking to relocate within the EU, without the impact of a culture shock, could look west to the Emerald Island. While the physical and technical infrastructure of Dublin fall considerably short of London at present, this city could grow into the next financial hub as a rival to Frankfurt and Paris, should Brexit mean the demise of London. Ireland s low corporation taxes have already brought big technological players like Google to Dublin. It would be unsurprising to see webshops make the short trip over the Irish sea and set up shop in Dublin to take advantage of EU membership on top of low corporation tax, and the English language, and thus make Dublin the new European Silicon Valley in the process. Furthermore, if Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland were to unite, and if Scotland were to secede, a fundamental change of the regional balance of power in the British Isles would be afoot in favour of Ireland. A traditional migration flow from West to East could eventually be reversed as people move to seek employment opportunities in the new regional power of Ireland. The Netherlands looks likely to be both a possible winner and loser out of Brexit. As the most liberal economy in the EU, it is losing a like-minded ally, and a powerful one at that. Often reliant on one another and the other liberal economies to form a blocking minority 3

4 against illiberal proposals in Council, the Netherlands will find its voice is significantly diminished without Britain. The British and the Dutch economies are intimately intertwined, too, so the possibility of tariff barriers to trade between the two nations would be detrimental to the Netherlands economy. However, Amsterdam has been floated as a possible alternative location for Foreign Direct Investment that could flow out of London, while large banks and businesses could also take advantage of low corporation taxes and similarly liberal economic conditions to Britain to relocate here. Poland will consider itself one of the biggest losers of Brexit. With a similar antiintegrationist stance to the UK, Poland was greatly reliant on its larger, more established ally to defend its interests, particularly in the field of foreign policy, with both Britain and Poland sharing the perception that tight sanctions on Russia should be upheld. Also on the outside of the Eurozone, Poland will fear that Brexit will result in diminished influence for non-eurozone nations, as the Eurozone members push on down the path of ever closer integration. Poland has strained relations with Germany, and fears that without Britain, it will see its interests sidelined. Furthermore, the incumbent Polish party sits in the British Conservatives group ECR in the European Parliament, which stands to see a huge chunk of its influence in Parliament dissolve, once the British MEPs clear the desks and leave office. What of the British Presidency? It remains unclear whether the projected British presidency of the EU in the last two quarters of 2017 will go ahead as planned. Should the British Prime Minister activate article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, a British presidency would be untenable, as it is unthinkable that a country negotiating its own exit can be placed at the helm of Europe and asked to create a mandate to drive European interests forward. In this case, it will most probably be Estonia who takes over the wheel from the UK, and Bulgaria who will step in thereafter. Where does Brexit leave the Public Affairs Industry? Given the remarkable economic consequences of the announcement of the referendum results, almost all industries will feel the pinch of the uncertainty that now shrouds the European economy. However, Brexit spells an important change for public affairs professionals, since their knowledge of the European institutions, their network and constant monitoring provide them with the tools and information to guide their clients through the uncertainty in the aftermath of the Brexit. With a potential divergence between future British and EU legislation and in the context of a possible niche market for public affairs professionals in Brussels who understand the legislative frameworks of both the UK and the EU, the situation provides a niche opportunity to guide and defend those clients engaged in cross-border trade between the two. Furthermore, as a lobbyist or public affairs professional, in order to represent one s interests, it is crucial to keep in close contact at all times with the relevant representatives at the Council, Commission and European Parliament. Since the negotiations of a departure from the EU are historical and without any precedent (since no Member State has left the European Union thus far), there are chances and opportunities for public affairs professionals to influence the process and affect the outcomes in a preferred direction where the interests at stake are safeguarded. 4

5 Indeed, Brexit could have the effect of changing the emphasis of the industry, by adding a dimension to lobbying efforts from simply effecting change to the rules governing the internal market, to attempting to understand and negotiate a new path for trade between Britain and the EU, for example by advising on possible bilateral trade agreements between the UK and the remaining Member States. Lobbyists will be watching the Brexit negotiations happen with keen interest, as they seek to orient themselves to the new reality of British-EU relations beyond Brexit. Further Questions? Dr2 Consultants will keep its clients up to date on the Brexit in general and possible individual consequences per individual organization. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further questions. You can contact partner Marlene ten Ham of Dr2 Consultants at M.ten.Ham@Dr2consultants.eu or call our Brussels office at +32 (0)