Cii Crisis Impact on Regions Recovery Prospects in G 7. Prospects for World Trade. Competitiveness What Next?

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1 Crisis i Without t a Sense of Crisis i GlobalCrisis Crisis, Recovery and Finnish Regions Dan Steinbock Research Director of International Business India, China and America Institute dsteinbock@gmail.com Competitiveness of Regions Regional Councils of Finland Jyväskylä, March 3, 00 Content Cii Crisis Impact on Regions Recovery Prospects in G 7 and the BRICs Prospects for World Trade Prospects for the Baltic Sea Region and Finnish Competitiveness What Next? No Place To Hide Synchronized Global Recession, Lagging g Recovery Global Output Increased by 4% in 009 q/3q, Recovery Lagging in G7 Global Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate (All variables in levels, unless otherwise stated; years on x axis) 3 4

2 Global Crisis Accelerates Transition BRICs Rising Economic Power (Goldman Sachs, 003) U.S. Growth Trajectory Growth Contributions (IMF, Oct 009) GDP (003 US$ bn) 5 Crisis Stages ) Financial ) Economic 3) Employment > > 4) Exit Policies Twin Deficit Budget Deficit & Trade Deficit Unemployment Rate (%) Deficit/Surplus (% of GDP, ) Trade Deficit and Petroleum ($b, ) 00,000+ new jobs per month needed for sustained recovery 7 8

3 Public Debt With Current Policies, Debt Will Explode (Debt as % of GDP, ) Health Care $.5 Trillion (over 7% of GDP) Actual Projections Health lhcare reform is driven by Program Spending and Revenues as % of GDP concern about millions of people without insurance coverage, continual increases in cost and spending, and quality shortcomings. More than 45 million people have no insurance. US spends over $.5 trillion, more than 7% of GDP on health care services and products, far more than other industrialized countries. Far more than 45 million people face the risk of being uninsured for short time periods 9 0 Foreign Funding of Budget Deficit Major Foreign Holders of 50% of Treasury Securities (Nov 009, $bn) In the 980s, US U.S. Dec Noc Country budget deficit was Japan 769 funded by America s strategic China 755 partners 3 3 UK 303 Today, it is funded by America s 4 4 Oil Exporters 87 strategic partners and (real and/or 5 5 Carib Bkng Ctrs 85 perceived) rivals 6 6 Brazil 6 But is China a strategic rival? 7 7 Hong Kong Russia 9 Source: Department of 9 Treasury/Federal Reserve Board 9 Luxembourg Taiwan 80 New Stage of Integration? Growth Contributions in the Era of the Lisbon Treaty

4 Eastern Europe: Banks and Foreign Debt Western European Ownership of Eastern European Banks Western Europe: The PIIGS Problems From Boom and Easy Money to Gloom and Debt Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, a group traders have disparagingly dubbed PIIGS, all have huge budget deficits and very low growth prospects, which means their debt is on course to rise further, fast. 4 China Investment Driven Growth Supports Regional Export Rebound Fixed asset investment drives China s growth, which is predicated on rapid urbanization Exports 0% of GDP on a value added basis in 007. But fixed asset investment 55% of GDP. China a stronger driver of the regional export rebound than the rest of the world A robust economic recovery is underway. In recent quarters, GDP growth has been supported by countercyclical policies... Capital inflows are back on the rise. Growth is projected to rise from 6.75% in 009/0 (April March) to 8% the following year. India Growth Close to Pre Crisis Levels

5 The Plunge of World Trade Steeper than In Previous Recessions, Including the Great Depression Relative to declines in output and industrial production Density, Distance, Division Some places are doing well because they have promoted transformations along the three dimensions of economic geography:. Higher densities, as seen in the growth of cities. No country has grown to high income without urbanizing. Shorter distances,, as workers and businesses migrate closer to density. Growth seldom comes without the need to move closer to density 3. Fewer divisions, as countries thin their economic borders and enter world markets to take advantage of scale and specialization. ation Growth seldom comes to a place that is isolated from others The United States and Japan reshaped their economic geography along these lines in the past. China is reshaping its economic geography now. 8 8 Crisis Impact on the Baltic Sea Region Economic Growth in World Regions and BSR (005 00e) 00e) The Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), northern Germany (Hansestadt Hamburg, Mecklenburg Vorpommern, and Schleswig Holstein), northern Poland (Pomorskie, Warminsko Mazurskie, and Zachodnio Pomorskie), and most parts of Russia s Northwestern Federal District (excluding the four regions least connected to the Baltic Sea Region: the Republic of Komi, Arkhangelskaya oblast, Nenetsky AO, and Vologodskaya oblast). Prosperity Declines in BSR Countries Prosperity Level and Growth over Time by Countries (008/9)

6 Largest Reduction Since % Contraction in 009 Change in Volume (%), Change in Volume (%), Clusters, Exports, and Trading Partners Exports by Products and Countries (008) Exports by Products Exports by Countries Euro Centrism Finnish Industry Sectors Finland s Top 500 Firms: Personnel & Net Sales (007) Globalization Impact TE 500 Net Sales and Personnel ( ) In 008, the net profit of the leading 500 Finnish companies almost halved to EUR.7 billion. Net sales stagnated at EUR 359 billion. Personnel Abroad Personnel in Finland Net sales (BEUR)

7 Finnish Innovation Finland s Top 00 R&D Companies: Industry Sectors (005) Symbiosis Sources of Export Revenues: Large Companies/SMEs (007) Large Finnish Companies Finnish SMEs Electrotechnical 4% Other 5% Wood and Paper Other Wood andpaper % 6% % Electrotechnical 7% Chemical % Chemical 4% Together, the non Nokia companies invest 8% of Nokia s R&D Metal, Machineand Transport 36% Metal, Machineand Transport 43% Low Entrepreneurial Drive Early Stage Entrepreneurial Activity Rates and GDPpc, 009 (GEM) Early Stage Entrepreneurial Activity Rates and GDPpc High Growth Expectation Early Stage Entrepreneurship (HEA), Finnish Competitiveness Global Competitiveness Report (009 0) % of Early Stage Entrepreneurs with Int l Orientation, Source: GEM Adult Populat Outlook (October 009)

8 Low Density, Low Benefits Finland s Rate of Urbanization ( ) 95 Iceland Denmark 85 Sweden Norway 75 Germany Russia Estonia, Latvia, Lithua 65 nia Poland 55 From Old Rigidities to New Opportunities Keynote, Finpro Forum (Aug. 007) Old Rigidities New Opportunities Business Business Efficiency Innovation Centralized labor markets More flexible labor markets Taxation disincentives Taxation incentives Industry focus Service focus Lack of growth, scale Overcoming growth barriers Geography Low density, distance, and division Regional insulation National mindset Geography High density, proximity, and integration Regional Integration, Role of Russia Global mindset Change year on to Asia on year in billions of US$, 008, (World Bank, Nov 009) The increase in China s GDP was larger than that of the G 7 (US, EU, Japan) during the crisis, up from a third before 008 Primary Sources Author: books, briefs, policy studies Baltic Development Forum Goldman Sachs IMF World Economic Forum World Bank Source: Datastream, CEIC and World Bank staff calculations

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