Now Fix Education and Social Security WHEN WASHINGTON WORKS, INCUMBENTS PROSPER

Transcription

1 FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, AUGUST 15, 1997, A.M. Now Fix Education and Social Security WHEN WASHINGTON WORKS, INCUMBENTS PROSPER w w w w w Also Inside... Re-election percentages rise. Third party interest slips. Clinton image improves. Budget provisions rated. Thompson hearings ignored. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut, Director Kimberly Parker, Research Director Claudia Deane, Gregory Flemming, Survey Directors Pew Research Center for The People & The Press 202/

2 Now Fix Education and Social Security WHEN WASHINGTON WORKS, INCUMBENTS PROSPER For the first time in a very long time, Americans are happy with the country s course and it is beginning to pay dividends to the political establishment. Not only are Bill Clinton s approval ratings approaching Reagan s at a comparable point, but support for Congressional incumbents is at a decade high, and interest in a third party has fallen to a 15 year low. A near majority of Americans (49%) are satisfied with the way things are going in the country. That is nearly twice as many as felt that way just a year ago and the first time since the heady days immediately following victory in the Gulf that most of the public is happy with the country s direction. While not paying close attention to the budget debate and Washington policy matters generally, the public is clearly picking up on improving social and economic trends. People not only recognize that unemployment is down (59%) and that the stock market is up (58%), but majorities also no longer see crime and the budget deficit as worsening problems. Political opinions reflect these perceptions. Clinton s approval ratings (59%- 32%) are coming close to Reagan s in the summer of 1986 (63%-28%). This is quite an accomplishment given that Reagan achieved reelection in a 59% landslide, while Clinton failed to win a majority (49%). The Pew Center survey conducted this past weekend also found support for re-electing one s Congressional representative rising to 66%, which is higher than observed in Center and Gallup surveys in 1996, 1994 and Although neither political party has made gains either in affiliation or in congressional voting intentions, the percentage of Americans thinking a third party is needed tumbled to 47% from 58% a year ago. At the same time, the survey found increased public awareness of bipartisan cooperation and a greater endorsement of divided government than in previous polls. Good News For Incumbents May Feb Jan Sept July June Aug 90 91* Satisfaction w/nation: Satisfied Dissatisfied DK Oct Oct Nov Sept Nov Aug 90* My Rep. Deserves Re-Election:" Yes No Not running DK Sept Jan July Oct July Aug 82 ^ 84 ^ Need For Third Party: Agree Disagree DK * Gallup trend " Based on Registered Voters ^ ABC/Washington Post trend

3 The President s personal image has been boosted by the budget agreement. While Clinton scandals have not been purged from the public s mind, news about policy issues (23%) is now being spontaneously recalled as often as the President s problems (24%). Earlier in the year, when respondents were asked to cite anything they had heard about the President in the news, scandal mentions (32%), mostly Whitewater, far outweighed policy mentions (10%). In the current survey the budget agreement dominated policy related answers. News about allegations of sexual harassment was more often recalled than Whitewater or the fund raising charges. (In that regard, strong public interest in the campaign finance scandal is half as great as it was before the Thompson hearings began.) The President is getting much higher marks from the public for his abilities, but his personal character evaluations remain low. Fully 64% of Pew respondents Things Americans Have Been Hearing About Clinton In The News Feb Aug % % Budget agreement Alleged sexual harassment Paula Jones 6 6 Tax bill -- 6 Whitewater 18 5 UPS strike -- 4 Campaign finance 7 3 Line item veto -- 3 Knee injury -- 2 His travels -- 2 Bad things, don t like him (general) -- 2 Welfare reform 2 1 Personal life (general) 4 1 Weight loss -- 1 Other Don t know Scandal News (NET) Policy News (NET) associated the phrase able to get things done with Bill Clinton a 23% point improvement on this measure since the fall of But, as in earlier surveys, only 47% describe him as trustworthy and 45% as someone who keeps his promises. The Republican Congressional leadership has not reaped any benefits from the positive climate of national opinion. While approval ratings for GOP leaders have rebounded since June, when they slipped following the party s perceived mishandling of the disaster relief bill, their 42%- 44% rating is well below the President s public evaluation and has not increased significantly over the past six months. With a considerable percentage of the public aware of bipartisan cooperation, undoubtably much of this has to do with opinion of Newt Gingrich. The Speaker s favorability rating remains as low as 30%. 2

4 Budget Legislation Cheered A 75% majority of Americans have heard about the balanced budget legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by President Clinton, and they approve of it overwhelmingly 70% vs. 18% who disapprove and 12% who are undecided. Approval of the budget legislation is strong across the board. Equal proportions of Republicans and Democrats express approval 72%. The tax cuts and spending initiatives hold appeal for upper, middle and lower income Americans, but those making over $50,000 a year show the most enthusiasm. Non-whites are the only group expressing significant opposition to the budget legislation 35% disapprove, while a bare majority (52%) approve. (See table page 20) When asked to rate the importance of the balanced budget legislation relative to other recent government accomplishments, the budget agreement ranks at the top. It is clear that, in spite of cynicism toward government and elected officials, the public truly values several of the initiatives undertaken in recent years. Eight in ten say the Kassebaum-Kennedy health insurance portability bill, which allows people to keep their health insurance even if they lose their job or change jobs, has been very important for Government Initiatives and Accomplishments Most Very Important Important For Me For Country % % Balanced Budget agreement Health insurance portability (Kassebaum-Kennedy) Family Leave Act Minimum wage increase 9 64 Welfare reform 8 67 Tobacco deal 4 52 TV ratings system 3 34 NATO expansion 1 27 the country. Fully 74% rate the budget agreement as very important for the country. The Family Leave Act, welfare reform and the minimum wage increase are also viewed as very important accomplishments by strong majorities of Americans (68%, 67% and 64%, respectively). A narrow majority (52%) view the recent deal between several state attorneys general and the tobacco industry as very important for the country, and even fewer place such value on the new television ratings system advocated by the President (34%) and the decision to expand NATO membership (27%). The balanced budget agreement and the health insurance portability law top the list of government actions that have been most important personally for Americans and their families (34% and 24%, respectively). The Family Leave Act is judged most important by 12% of the public, followed by the minimum wage increase (9%) and welfare reform (8%). 3

5 Men and women differ significantly in their assessments of the importance of these government initiatives. A plurality of men (41%) say the budget agreement has been most important to them personally. Women are more evenly divided on the issue: 28% name the budget agreement, but an equal proportion cite the Kassebaum-Kennedy bill. Another 14% of women name the Family Leave Act. More affluent Americans also place more value on the balanced budget legislation. Half of those with a college education say the budget agreement has been most important for them personally, compared to 36% of those with some college education and only 27% of those who never attended college. Those with less education tend to place considerably more value on the minimum wage increase than the better educated. But Still, Show Me Despite positive feelings about the legislation, Americans continue to doubt that the budget will actually be balanced by the year Only 16% think the budget will be balanced, 77% think it will not be down slightly from 85% in May. Assuming the budget is balanced, the public is divided as to what effect this will have on them personally: 43% say a balanced budget is likely to help them and their family financially, 44% say it will not have much impact on them. Very few (8%) believe a balanced budget will hurt them. The public is slightly less optimistic about their own prospects when asked more specifically about the effect of the recent budget agreement. 1 About one third (30%) believe the current budget legislation will help them and their families, more than half (54%) say it will not have much impact on them. Men more than women anticipate positive effects from the budget legislation (35% vs. 26% say they will be helped). Other groups expressing greater optimism include middle aged Americans and college graduates. When asked in what ways the budget agreement will help them and their families, most How Will the Budget Agreement Help You and Your Family? % Net references to tax cuts 52 Tax cuts (general) 36 Capital gains tax cuts 10 Child tax credit 8 Education tax cuts and incentives 6 People will have more money 20 Good for future generations 8 Good for the economy 4 Help lower the debt 3 1 Half the sample was asked, In your opinion, if the federal budget is balanced in five years, do you think this will help you and your family financially, hurt you and your family financially, or not affect you and your family too much? The other half was asked, From what you ve heard or read about the balanced budget agreement, do you think it will help you and your family financially, hurt you and your family financially, or not affect you and your family too much? 4

6 respondents referred either generally or specifically to the tax cuts included in the legislation. Other reasons given were that people will have more money, that a balanced budget is good for future generations, and that the legislation will further strengthen the economy. The public is fairly well aware of the specific provisions of the budget and tax bills, though certain aspects of the legislation are better known than others. As many as 69% have heard about the $500 per child tax credit heralded by the leaders of both parties in the aftermath of the bill s passage. Nearly as many (65%) were familiar with the tax credits and incentives for higher education. Large majorities have heard of two key changes to the Medicare system limiting payments to hospitals, doctors and other health care providers (64%) and offering new insurance options such as HMOs to the elderly (62%). About half of the poll s respondents had heard of some of the other major provisions in the budget legislation: 53% knew about a new program to finance health care for uninsured children, 50% knew of the restoration of some welfare benefits to legal immigrants, and 47% knew about capital gains tax cuts. Fewer knew about changes in estate taxes (45%) and new rules for IRAs (43%). Provisional Reaction Those who have heard about these provisions express overwhelming approval for most of them. The major exceptions are the restoration of benefits to legal immigrants and certain proposed Medicare changes. The public disapproves of the immigrant benefits provision by a margin of 56% to 39%. On balance the public approves of the Medicare changes, but there is significant opposition to the reduction in payments to health care providers (37% disapprove). Seniors are more resistant to this idea than are those of middle age. One in five Americans disapprove of expanding insurance options for Medicare recipients beyond the traditional fee- Provisions of the Budget Agreement* Heard Disap- About Approve prove DK % % % % 43 New rules for IRAs = $500 child tax credit =100 Education tax credits/ 65 incentives =100 Health insurance for 53 children = Estate tax changes =100 New insurance options 62 for Medicare recipients = Capital gains tax cuts =100 Limits on exemptions 47 for home sales =100 Reduced payments to 64 Medicare providers =100 Restoring benefits to 50 legal immigrants =100 * Approve/disapprove figures are based on those who have heard or read about the provision. 5

7 for-service approach. Again, seniors are more resistant to the change, 41% disapprove. With the balanced budget agreement enacted, Americans would like Congress and the President to turn to education reform and Social Security. When asked to choose from six pressing national issues, the public showed a very limited appetite for campaign finance reform. A mere 2% of respondents chose that as the issue the nation s leaders should address next. Nearly one third (30%) say the focus should now shift to improving What Should Congress and Clinton Focus on Next? ----Age---- Total < % % % % % Education Social Security Poverty Medicare Race relations Campaign finance the educational system. A similar proportion (29%) would opt for improving the long term stability of the Social Security system. Eighteen percent say reducing poverty and homelessness should be the next priority, and 12% say Medicare reform. Less than 5% think improving race relations should be the major focus, in spite of Clinton s effort to launch a national dialogue on the issue. While there is a surprising degree of partisan agreement on the legislative agenda, there are significant generational differences. Those under 50 would place education at the top of the agenda, their older counterparts, particularly those age 50-64, place much more value on entitlement reform. Bipartisanship Noticed In recent months significant numbers of Americans have become aware of bipartisan cooperation in Washington. The percentage thinking that the parties are working together is now 43%, compared to 34% in June and only 21% in October 1995, during the days leading up to the government shutdown. 6

8 Americans are also more likely to approve of divided government now than they have been in the past. Almost twice as many people say it is better to have one party control the White House and the other Congress than say one party should control both. In May 1992, the public was evenly divided between these attitudes. At both times, however, a plurality said it did not matter one way or the other. Increased Support for Divided Government May 1992 Aug 1997 Which is Better? % % President s party controls Congress One party controls each Doesn t matter Can t say Interest in Third Party Slips For the first time in the nineties, less than half of the public agrees that the country should have a third major party. Young people are particularly changed in this regard. Last summer, 70% of those under age 30 wanted a new party; that number has dropped by 17% points. Americans without a high school diploma are also significantly more content with the two party system. In July 1996, half (51%) wanted a third party, now only 31% do. (See table page 22) There are still sharp generational distinctions in the desire for a third party, however. Fully 55% of those under age 50 support the idea of a new party, compared to only 34% of those over age 50. Party Ratings Fall Contentment with the way things have been working in Washington has not improved public assessments of the parties. The Democrats favorability rating has fallen to a 52% to 42% margin from a 61% to 33% margin in June. The Republican party s rating also fell, though somewhat less dramatically: 47% to 47% now compared with 51% to 42% in June. The drop in Democratic favorability has occurred among both Independents and Republicans, though not among Democrats themselves. Independents account for much of the Republicans loss in favorability. Overall, the image of the two parties is mostly unchanged. The Democrats remain identified as the party of the people, and the Republicans are chosen more often as better able to manage the federal government. The GOP margin has slipped somewhat since July 1996 on the latter measure (from a 13% advantage over the Democrats to a 6% advantage). The GOP also maintains an edge as the party more often described as well organized (39% vs. 30% for the Democrats), this despite the recently publicized divisions among Republican House members, to which few Americans paid very close attention (13%). 7

9 Perhaps the most crucial difference in perception is on the measure of which party can bring about change. The Democrats had the advantage here in the summer before Clinton s reelection, while the Republicans held an edge after their takeover of Congress. In the current poll, however, the parties pull even. Much of the Democrats loss occurs among Independents: 49% said the Democrats could bring about needed changes in 1996, only 35% say so now. Parties As Agents Of Change Which better able to bring about changes: July April July Aug % % % % Republicans Democrats Both Neither Don t know While the Democrats are under heavier fire in the campaign finance hearings, the public has less confidence in both parties capacity to govern in an honest and ethical way. The number of Americans saying neither party is capable of ethical governance has increased from 18% in July 1996 to 26% now. The poll found that Independents have lost confidence in both parties. Democrats are about as likely as a year ago to think their party is more ethical. However, significantly fewer Republicans are willing to choose their party as capable of honest governance. The News Interest Index The slaying of designer Gianni Versace in Miami and the Pathfinder spacecraft's exploration on Mars were the most closely followed news stories of the last month. Americans' interest in news from Washington continues to fall, meanwhile, despite passage of the balanced budget legislation and the start of campaign finance hearings in the Senate. More than one in five Americans (24%) followed Versace's death and the search for suspect Andrew Cunanan very closely, and another 33% fairly closely. Similarly, 22% followed news about the exploration of Mars very closely, and 36% fairly closely. Among these top stories, women paid the closest attention to the Versace slaying (29% following very closely, compared to 19% of men), while men paid more attention to the Mars exploration (24% following very closely, compared to 19% of women). Declining Interest In Washington Policy News % Follow Closely Major Domestic Policy News:* Budget Debate: Aug Sept Jan March Feb May Current 48 * Based on a cumulative News Interest Index database. 8

10 Foreign news is less interesting than national news even when it happens in outer space. Only 14% of Americans paid very close attention to the other space story in the news, the problems aboard the Russian space station Mir. As the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee began its first round of hearings on improper foreign campaign contributions, public interest in the topic fell to its lowest point in eight months. Only one in ten Americans followed the hearings very closely; more than one third (35%) paid almost no attention at all. Interest in the hearings was about the same among Republicans (13% following very closely) and Democrats (10%). In recent years, only the Whitewater and Ruby Ridge hearings have drawn as little public interest as the Thompson hearings. Congressional inquiries into Iran- Contra, the Persian Gulf conflict, and the federal raid in Waco were followed by more people than this summer's campaign finance hearings. Attentiveness to Congressional Hearings Very Fairly Total Closely Closely Closely % % % Hearings About: Iran Contra Affair (9/87) U.S. Persian Gulf Policy (1/91) Federal Raid on Waco (8/95) Whitewater (8/95) FBI Siege at Ruby Ridge (9/95) Campaign Contributions (8/97) Other political stories this month raised only slightly more interest. Some 14% of Americans followed the budget debate very closely, for example, also down from previous months. Only 13% paid very close attention to news about the failed attempt to replace Newt Gingrich as House Speaker. Among recent international events, the reunification of Hong Kong and China drew the most attention, with 14% of Americans following the story very closely and another 34% following fairly closely. But China's historic reunification with Hong Kong clearly had less impact than news closer to home. Fully twice as many Americans 79% knew the name of the ear-biting professional boxer as could name China as the country that had reacquired a former British colony. The Chomp % Percent Who Knew... Tyson bit off part of the ear of his opponent 79 China re-acquired a piece of territory that had been a British colony 40 9

11 PERCENT FOLLOWING EACH NEWS STORY "VERY CLOSELY" Slaying Exploration Reunification Of Of Of Hong Kong Versace Mars & China (N) Total (1213) Sex Male (586) Female (627) Race White (1007) *Hispanic (80) Black (103) Age Under (250) (527) (423) Education College Grad (379) Some College (304) High School Grad (412) < H. S. Grad (112) Region East (211) Midwest (329) South (425) West (248) Party ID Republican (383) Democrat (405) Independent (355) Question: Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. *The designation, Hispanic, is unrelated to the white-black categorization. CONTINUED... 10

12 PERCENT FOLLOWING EACH NEWS STORY "VERY CLOSELY" Problems with Mir space Budget Gingrich Station Debate Coup (N) Total (1213) Sex Male (586) Female (627) Race White (1007) *Hispanic (80) Black (103) Age Under (250) (527) (423) Education College Grad (379) Some College (304) High School Grad (412) < H. S. Grad (112) Region East (211) Midwest (329) South (425) West (248) Party ID Republican (383) Democrat (405) Independent (355) Question: Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. *The designation, Hispanic, is unrelated to the white-black categorization. CONTINUED... 11

13 PERCENT FOLLOWING EACH NEWS STORY "VERY CLOSELY" Suicide Campaign Bombing in Finance NATO Jerusalem Hearings Expansion (N) Total (1213) Sex Male (586) Female (627) Race White (1007) *Hispanic (80) Black (103) Age Under (250) (527) (423) Education College Grad (379) Some College (304) High School Grad (412) < H. S. Grad (112) Region East (211) Midwest (329) South (425) West (248) Party ID Republican (383) Democrat (405) Independent (355) Question: Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. *The designation, Hispanic, is unrelated to the white-black categorization. 12

14 TABLES 13

15 PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL June 1997 vs. August June August Change in Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approval % % % % Total Sex Male Female Race White Non-white Black Race and Sex White Men White Women Age Under Education College Grad Some College High School Grad <H.S. Grad Family Income $75, $50,000-$74, $30,000-$49, $20,000-$29, <$20, Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Continued... 14

16 --- June August Change in Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approval % % % % Total Region East Midwest South West Community Size Large City Suburb Small City/Town Rural Area Party ID Republican Democrat Independent Presidential Vote Clinton Dole Congressional Vote Republican Democrat

17 TREND IN GOP CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL June 1997 vs. August June August Change in Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approval % % % % Total Sex Male Female Race White Non-white Black Race and Sex White Men White Women Age Under Education College Grad Some College High School Grad <H.S. Grad Family Income $75, $50,000-$74, $30,000-$49, $20,000-$29, <$20, Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the job Republican leaders in Congress are doing? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Continued... 16

18 --- June August Change in Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approval % % % % Total Region East Midwest South West Community Size Large City Suburb Small City/Town Rural Area Party ID Republican Democrat Independent Presidential Vote Clinton Dole Congressional Vote Republican Democrat

19 SATISFACTION WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING IN THIS COUNTRY July 1996 vs. August July August Change in Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfaction % % % % Total Sex Male Female Race White Non-white Black Age Under Education College Grad Some College High School Grad <H.S. Grad Family Income $75, $50,000-$74, $30,000-$49, $20,000-$29, <$20, Question: All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today? Continued... 18

20 --- July August Change in Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfaction % % % % Total Region East Midwest South West Community Size Large City Suburb Small City/Town Rural Area Party ID Republican Democrat Independent Clinton Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion

21 APPROVAL OF BALANCED BUDGET LEGISLATION (Based on Those Who Have Heard of It) Approve Disapprove DK (N) % % % Total =100 (934) Sex Male (477) Female (457) Race White (788) Non-white (141) Black (74) Race and Sex White Men (405) White Women (383) Age Under (142) (410) (204) (168) Education College Grad (322) Some College (242) High School Grad (291) <H.S. Grad (75) Family Income $75, (140) $50,000-$74, (142) $30,000-$49, (256) $20,000-$29, (142) <$20, (159) Question: [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAD HEARD OF LEGISLATION] From what you ve heard or read, would you say you approve or disapprove of the balanced budget legislation? Continued... 20

22 Approve Disapprove DK (N) % % % Total =100 (934) Region East (169) Midwest (261) South (315) West (189) Community Size Large City (181) Suburb (234) Small City/Town (321) Rural Area (192) Party ID Republican (307) Democrat (310) Independent (269) 1996 Presidential Vote Clinton (337) Dole (221) 1996 Congressional Vote Republican (298) Democrat (243) 21

23 SUPPORT FOR THIRD POLITICAL PARTY July 1996 vs. August July August Change in Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree % % % % % Total Sex Male Female Race White Non-white Black Age Under Education College Grad Some College High School Grad <H.S. Grad Family Income $75, $50,000-$74, $30,000-$49, $20,000-$29, <$20, Question: Some people say we should have a third major political party in this country in addition to the Democrats and the Republicans. Do you agree or disagree? Continued... 22

24 --- July August Change in Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree % % % % % Total Region East Midwest South West Community Size Large City Suburb Small City/Town Rural Area Party ID Republican Democrat Independent Clinton Approval Approve Disapprove

25 SURVEY METHODOLOGY 24

26 ABOUT THIS SURVEY Results for the survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,213 adults, 18 years of age or older, during the period August 7-10,1997. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For results based on either Form 1 (N=610) or Form 2 (N=603), the sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. copyright 1997 Tides Center 25

27 SURVEY METHODOLOGY IN DETAIL The sample for this survey is a random digit sample of telephone numbers selected from telephone exchanges in the continental United States. The random digit aspect of the sample is used to avoid "listing" bias and provides representation of both listed and unlisted numbers (including not-yet-listed). The design of the sample ensures this representation by random generation of the last two digits of telephone numbers selected on the basis of their area code, telephone exchange, and bank number. The telephone exchanges were selected with probabilities proportional to their size. The first eight digits of the sampled telephone numbers (area code, telephone exchange, bank number) were selected to be proportionally stratified by county and by telephone exchange within county. That is, the number of telephone numbers randomly sampled from within a given county is proportional to that county's share of telephone households in the U.S. Estimates of the number of telephone households within each county are derived from 1990 Census data on residential telephone incidence that have been updated with state-level information on new telephone installations and county-level projections of the number of households. Only working banks of telephone numbers are selected. A working bank is defined as 100 contiguous telephone numbers containing three or more residential listings. The sample was released for interviewing in replicates. Using replicates to control the release of sample to the field ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample. At least four attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chances of making a contact with a potential respondent. All interview breakoffs and refusals were re-contacted at least once in order to attempt to convert them to completed interviews. In each contacted household, interviewers asked to speak with the "youngest male 18 or older who is at home". If there is no eligible man at home, interviewers asked to speak with "the oldest woman 18 or older who lives in the household". This systematic respondent selection technique has been shown empirically to produce samples that closely mirror the population in terms of age and gender. Non-response in telephone interview surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population, and these subgroups are likely to vary also on questions of substantive interest. In order to compensate for these known biases, the sample data are weighted in analysis. The demographic weighting parameters are derived from a special analysis of the most recently available Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (March 1994). This analysis produced population parameters for the demographic characteristics of households with adults 18 or older, which are then compared with the sample characteristics to construct sample weights. The analysis only included households in the continental United States that contain a telephone. The weights are derived using an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters. 26

28 THE QUESTIONNAIRE 27

29 PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS AUGUST 1997 NEWS INTEREST INDEX -- FINAL TOPLINE -- August 7-10, 1997 N = 1,213 Hello, I am calling for Princeton Survey Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey. We are conducting a telephone opinion survey for leading newspapers and TV stations around the country. I'd like to ask a few questions of the youngest male, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home. [IF NO MALE, ASK: May I please speak with the oldest female, 18 years of age or older, who is now at home?] Q.1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Approve Disapprove Don't Know August, =100 June, =100 May, =100 April, =100 February, =100 Early February, =100 January, =100 November, =100 July, =100 June, =100 April, =100 March, =100 February, =100 January, =100 October, =100 September, =100 August, =100 June, =100 April, =100 March, =100 February, =100 December, =100 November, =100 October, =100 Early October, =100 September, =100 July, =100 June, =100 May, =100 March, =100 January, =100 Early January, =100 28

30 Q.1 con't... Approve Disapprove Don't Know December, =100 October, =100 September, =100 Early September, =100 August, =100 May, =100 Early May, =100 April, =100 February, =100 Q.2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Approve Disapprove Don t know August, =100 June, =100 May, =100 April, =100 February, =100 January, =100 November, =100 July, =100 June, =100 April, =100 March, =100 February, =100 January, =100 October, =100 September, =100 August, =100 June, =100 April, =100 March =100 December, =100 29

31 Q.3 Can you recall anything you have heard or read about Bill Clinton in the news recently? (ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES; PROBE ONCE) Feb SCANDAL (NET) Sexual Harassment (Net) Sexual harassment (unspecified) -- 6 Paula Jones 6 1 Accused of harassment by woman in White House -- 5 Whitewater 18 3 Campaign Finance 7 23 DOMESTIC POLICY (NET) Balanced Budget (Net) Budget agreement -- 6 Tax bill -- 3 Line item veto -- 4 UPS Strike -- 1 Welfare Reform 2 2 Bad things, Don t like him (general) -- 2 Knee Injury -- 2 His Travels -- 1 Personal Life (general) 4 1 Weight Loss Other Don't know/no answer 47 30

32 Q.4 All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today? Satisfied Dissatisfied No Opinion August, =100 January, =100 July, =100 March, =100 October, =100 June, =100 April, =100 July, =100 March, =100 October, =100 September, =100 May, =100 January, =100 January, =100 November, =100 Late February, 1991 (Gallup) =100 August, =100 May, =100 January, =100 September, =100 May, =100 January, =100 ON ANOTHER SUBJECT... Q.4a Do you happen to know the name of the professional boxer who bit off part of the ear of his opponent in a recent championship bout? 79 Mike Tyson 4 Other answer 17 DK/Refused 100 Q.4b Can you name the country which recently re-acquired a piece of territory that had been a British colony? 40 China 12 Other answer 48 DK/Refused

33 Q.5 Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? [READ AND ROTATE LIST] Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL) Closely Closely Closely Closely DK a. The debate in Washington about the federal budget =100 May, =100 February, =100 March, *=100 January, *=100 September, *=100 August, =100 b. Senate hearings on improper foreign campaign contributions =100 May, =100 April, =100 February, =100 January, *=100 December, *=100 c. An attempt by some Republican House members to replace Newt Gingrich as Speaker =100 d. The problems aboard the Russian space station Mir *=100 e. The exploration of the planet Mars by the Pathfinder spacecraft *=100 f. The slaying of designer Gianni Versace and the search for the suspect, Andrew Cunanan *=100 g. The expansion of NATO to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic =100 April, =100 January, = In this month the story was listed as "The debate in Congress over the federal budget." In this month story was listed as Charges of improper campaign contributions to the Democrats by foreign business interests. In previous months story was listed as "Charges of improper campaign contributions to the Democrats by Indonesian business interests." In previous months story was listed as The discussion and debate about expanding NATO into Eastern Europe. 32

34 Q.5 con t... Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL) Closely Closely Closely Closely DK h. The reunification of Hong Kong and China =100 i. The suicide bombing by Palestinian terrorists in a Jerusalem market *=100 ON ANOTHER SUBJECT... Q.6 If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district? IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED "3" OR "9" IN Q.6, ASK: Q.6a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: [N=904] Early Late Early Early Nov Oct Sept Sept July June March Jan Oct Aug Nov Oct Oct Sept July Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem Other/Undecided Based on Likely Voters. 33

35 ON A DIFFERENT SUBJECT... ASK OF FORM 1 ONLY: [N=610] Q.7F1 Now I'd like your views on some people and things in the news. As I read from a list, please tell me which category best describes your overall opinion of who or what I name. (First,) would you say your overall opinion of... (INSERT ITEM; ROTATE) is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly UNfavorable, or very unfavorable? (INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN "NEVER HEARD OF" AND "CAN'T RATE") Very Mostly Mostly Very Never Favor- Favor- Unfavor- Unfavor- Heard Can't able able able able Of Rate a. Bill Clinton =100 April, * 2=100 January, * 2=100 October, =100 June, * 2=100 April, =100 February, =100 January, =100 August, =100 February, =100 December, =100 July, * 1=100 May, =100 July, =100 June, =100 May, * 5=100 March, =100 February, =100 January, =100 November, =100 b. Al Gore =100 April, =100 January, =100 July, =100 August, =100 July, =100 September, =100 c. Newt Gingrich =100 April, =100 January, =100 August, =100 February, =100 December, =100 July, = October 1996 trend based on registered voters. July 1992 trend based on 461 respondents asked on July 9, 1992 only. 34

36 Q.7F1 con't... Very Mostly Mostly Very Never Favor- Favor- Unfavor- Unfavor- Heard Can't able able able able Of Rate d. Congress =100 June, =100 May, * 9=100 February, * 8=100 January, * 4=100 June, * 5=100 April, =100 January, * 4=100 October, =100 August, * 7=100 June, * 5=100 February, =100 July, * 4=100 May, =100 November, =100 May, =100 May, =100 January, =100 May, * 6=100 January, =100 June, * 7=100 e. The Democratic Party =100 June, * 6=100 January, * 5=100 October, =100 July, * 4=100 May, =100 July, * 6=100 f. The Republican Party * 6=100 June, =100 January, * 5=100 October, * 4=100 July, * 4=100 May, =100 July, * 6=100 35

37 Q.9 Generally, what's the better situation: that a President's political party also have a controlling majority in Congress OR is it better that one party control the White House, while the other party controls the Congress...or don't you think it matters too much one way or the other? May President's party also control Congress One party control each Doesn't matter 40 8 Can't say NO QUESTION Q.11 As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, tell me which ONE best reflects your impression of Bill Clinton. (First,) does Bill Clinton impress you as... (READ AND ROTATE) Sept July Dec Aug Jan a. 47 Trustworthy or Not trustworthy (DO NOT READ) Neither particularly (DO NOT READ) Don't know/refused Sept July Dec Aug b. 64 Able to get things done or Not able to get things done (DO NOT READ) Neither particularly (DO NOT READ) Don't know/refused July Dec Aug c. 31 Liberal, Middle of the road or Conservative (DO NOT READ) Neither particularly (DO NOT READ) Don't know/refused d. 45 Keeps his promises or Doesn't keep his promises (DO NOT READ) Neither particularly (DO NOT READ) Don't know/refused

38 ON A DIFFERENT SUBJECT... Q.12 Would you like to see your Representative in Congress be re-elected in the next congressional election, or not? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: [N=904] Early Late Early Early ---Gallup--- Nov Oct Sept Sept Nov Oct Oct Oct Yes No Congressman is 0 not running (VOL) No opinion Q.12a Regardless of how you feel about your own Representative, would you like to see most members of Congress re-elected in the next congressional election, or not? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: [N=904] Early Late Early Sept Nov Oct Oct Yes No Don t know/refused Q.13 Now, I'm going to read you some phrases. Please tell me if you think each one better describes the REPUBLICAN Party and its leaders or the DEMOCRATIC Party and its leaders. (First,) which party do you think is better described by the phrase... (INSERT ITEM; ROTATE START) Republican Democratic Both Don't Party Party Equally Neither Know a. Able to manage the Federal government well =100 July, =100 April, =100 July, =100 May, =100 May, =100 January, =100 May, =100 37

39 Q.13 con't... Republican Democratic Both Don't Party Party Equally Neither Know b. Can bring about the kind of changes the country needs =100 July, =100 April, =100 July, =100 May, =100 May, =100 January, =100 May, =100 c. Is concerned with the needs of people like me =100 July, =100 April, =100 July, =100 May, =100 May, =100 January, =100 d. Governs in an honest and ethical way =100 July, =100 April, =100 July, =100 e. Well organized =100 July, =100 July, =100 May, =100 May, =100 January, =100 May, =100 Q.14 This year, have Republicans and Democrats in Washington been working together more to solve problems, OR have they been bickering and opposing one another more than usual? June Oct Aug Working together more Opposing each other more Same as in past (VOL) Don't know/refused