MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DENMARK. Denmark s Country Policy Paper for Afghanistan (3 years)

Transcription

1 MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DENMARK Denmark s Country Policy Paper for Afghanistan (3 years) (draft version )

2 Content A. Introduction... 1 B. Denmark s partnership with Afghanistan; overall vision and strategic direction... 1 C. Analysis of the situation in Afghanistan; opportunities, challenges and risks... 2 D. Strategic objectives and key areas to be addressed in DanishAfghanistan cooperation... 4 E. Monitoring of the Danish engagement... 8

3 A. Introduction Denmark continues to have a strong interest in and is committed to working with Afghanistan, which is defined as a priority country in the strategy for Denmark s development and humanitarian cooperation. Since the engagement started in 2001, Denmark s official partnership with Afghanistan has been based on four pillars: political dialogue, security, development cooperation and humanitarian assistance. Denmark has made considerable investments, including approximately DKK 4.5bn in official development assistance as well as the deployment of Danish soldiers. The overall objectives remain valid, i.e. preventing Afghanistan from being a safe haven for terrorists, contributing to regional stability and creating a situation where Afghans believe in a future in their own country. Despite broad international support and engagement, Afghanistan is still a fragile and conflict affected country, not least due to the continued presence of the Taliban and other armed groups, including terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP). In 2015, the Afghan government was given sole responsibility for the security of Afghanistan and a drive towards selfreliance in all spheres was initiated. Despite progress on socioeconomic indicators, significant challenges remain in building a path to a secure, stable and selfreliant Afghanistan, and the need for an Afghanled and Afghanowned development process remains undisputed. This also includes the efforts to pursue all possible solutions to the security crisis. In absence of stability and a secure environment there is a risk of a further worsening of the economic situation, an increase in migration to neighbouring countries and beyond (alt: Europe), as well as a deteriorating situation for internally displaced people and the creation of space for terrorist groups to operate in and out of Afghanistan. Against this backdrop of continuing fragility, there is broad international agreement on the critical need for the international community to remain engaged in Afghanistan. Already in 2012, Denmark, as part of the international community, committed to remain engaged in Afghanistan in the socalled transformation decade until the end of At the NATO Summit in Warsaw in July 2016, Denmark pledged continuation of its military assistance and at the Brussels donor conference in October 2016, Denmark pledged its financial assistance until the end of The present Country Policy Paper outlines how Denmark intends to honour these pledges. B. Denmark s partnership with Afghanistan; overall vision and strategic direction Afghanistan and Denmark have signed a bilateral Strategic Partnership Agreement that describes the overall cooperation between the two countries. Once a year this is the basis for bilateral consultations where current issues are raised. The Strategic Partnership Agreement refers to issuespecific bilateral agreements on development cooperation, handling of prisoners and facilitation of the return of illegally present persons to their country of origin.

4 As part of a geographically differentiated foreign, security and development policy, Denmark gives special priority to further the UN s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, Danish cooperation with Afghanistan will be aligned with the SDGs and with a particular focus on Goal 1 (eradicate poverty), Goal 5 (gender equality), Goal 16 (peace, justice and strong institutions) and Goal 17 (partnerships for action). Concrete interventions will also address Goal 2 (end hunger), Goal 4 (quality education) and Goal 8 (decent work and economic growth). With the SDGs as a platform, Denmark s engagement in Afghanistan will be based on Denmark s strategy for development cooperation and humanitarian action The World 2030 as well as the Foreign and Security Policy Strategy adopted June All four strategic aims of Denmark s development policy are relevant in the Afghan context: promotion of peace, security and protection; migration; the need for inclusive, sustainable growth; as well as improvement in the area of human rights, democracy and equal rights for women and men. The continued partnership with and support to Afghanistan will be based on four instruments: political dialogue, security, development cooperation and humanitarian support. To the extent possible and relevant, coherence among these instruments will be ensured to maximise impact. For the period , Denmark will focus its engagement and cooperation with Afghanistan and international partners in three areas where Afghanistan and Denmark share clear interests and goals: 1) Promote political and crosscutting issues such as good governance, accountability, anticorruption, human rights and equal opportunities for women and men in Afghanistan as well as cooperation on migratory issues, including the readmission of Afghan citizens without legal permission to stay in Denmark. 2) Contribute to increased security and stability in Afghanistan through strengthening of the Afghan security forces. 3) Address humanitarian and development challenges, including those contributing to internal displacement and irregular migration from Afghanistan, through strengthening of the private sector, job creation and education as well as integration of refugees and IDPs into local communities. C. Analysis of the situation in Afghanistan; opportunities, challenges and risks The Security Situation Afghanistan has been in a state of armed conflict for four decades and in the past few years the Afghan government has experienced a declining control of its territory. In 2016, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported the highest number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan since 2009, where systematic registration was initiated. In addition to the conflict and the lack of a negotiated peace settlement with the Taliban, an increased presence of ISKP is further destabilizing the security situation in parts of the country. The security situation in Afghanistan is also affected by important and challenging regional dynamics, and further destabilised by factors such as high levels of poverty, a rapid population growth (3 per cent), rapid and largely unplanned urbanisation, high crime rates and significant 2

5 production of illegal drugs. In addition, climate change could add to fragility as Afghanistan is frequently exposed to extreme weather incidents such as drought in some areas and flash floods. In general, the limited institutional and management capacity of the government of Afghanistan is a serious impediment to improving the security situation, and capabilities for developing and sustaining the national security forces are equally weak and insufficient. The still limited ability to provide basic social services also weakens the citizens support for the National Unity Government, and adds to the perception among many Afghans that state institutions are corrupt, partisan and inefficient, thus undermining popular support for the Afghan government. The risk of further weakening of governance in Afghanistan as a result of a breakdown of the National Unity Government or major insurgency gains in some provinces, while not highly likely at this point, cannot be fully excluded. Afghanistan s challenges are exacerbated by significant humanitarian and developmental challenges arising from large numbers of returning refugees and migrants (approximately 800,000 in 2016), mainly from neighbouring countries, and a large and growing IDP population (1.2 million). Displaced populations and in many cases also affected local communities require both immediate humanitarian assistance and protection as well as support for longerterm reintegration, including access to services, economic opportunities, as well as land and housing. The Economy According to the World Bank Afghanistan will remain heavily resource constrained and aiddependent through 2030 and beyond. Economic growth is sluggish and currently not keeping pace with population growth. Furthermore, youth enter the labour force in Afghanistan every year according to the World Bank. Further reforms in support of private sector development and improvement in the security situation will be needed to spur private sector growth in key sectors identified by the government to be drivers of economic growth such as agriculture and mining. The transport sector also has significant potential and Afghanistan s location at the cross roads of South, Central and West Asia is the backdrop of the government s ambitions to turn Afghanistan into a regional transport and energy hub. The World Bank s current economic projection forecasts real GDP growth rates to increase to 2.6 percent in 2017 and to reach 3.6 percent by 2020, predicted on political stability and improvements in the security situation. With a population growth at the current rate there will only be negligible improvements in incomes and living standards with high risk of humanitarian needs, migration and fragility pressures arising from lack of economic growth and increasing unemployment. As the government does not have sufficient fiscal space and stimulus to boost growth, and the risk of seeing negative per capita growth remains in the short term, donor assistance will to a large extent be crucial for maintaining a reasonable level of social stability and continued state building for the coming years. Afghanistan s trade balance is heavily import skewed with export revenues far from meeting import costs (approximately 90 % imbalance). The pressure on the government to increase exports and stimulate job creation will rise as donor support is expected to decrease in the coming years. 3

6 Corruption Anticorruption efforts in Afghanistan are still in the early stages, though some progress has been realized over the past few years as a result of strengthened institutions and increased political support. The current government has made it a priority and initiated some important measures. Widespread corruption, however, remains one of the key challenges for security, economic development and state building at large and progress is fragile and can only be maintained through sustained and increased efforts from civil society, government and international partners. Women and Girls Rights The education sector has seen major advances not least in girls school attendance and Denmark has contributed positively to this development. Getting more children, in particular girls, to attend school is vital to development and nation building. Girls education is a key factor for the longterm empowerment of women in the Afghan society. However, as millions of children are still not receiving primary education, the need for continued support to the education sector is evident. In the area of gender equality, there have been some improvements over the past few years. The inclusion of women, including in political and economic affairs is being addressed by the government through a number of National Priority Programs, such as the Citizens Charter programmes as well as through the Women s Economic Empowerment Program. Notwithstanding these improvements, the situation for women and girls in Afghanistan remains challenging in many areas. Human rights groups name Afghanistan as one of the most dangerous countries for women to live in. Physical, sexual and psychological abuse as well as forced marriages persist at large scale and a strong social inertia hampers necessary improvements in women s rights in Afghanistan. Human Rights According to the UN, the human rights situation in Afghanistan deteriorated in 2016 and into This is primarily caused by the continuing conflict where civilians to a large extent are being targeted by antigovernment forces. It is, however, also a broader issue, including continued use of torture and other cruel, inhuman and degrading treatments in detention facilities. On a positive note, freedom of expression and free media as also protected by the Afghan constitution are considered among the most liberal in the region. Although increased media diversity and a decline in legal harassment and censorship are positive signs, violence against journalists remains a concern. D. Strategic objectives and key areas to be addressed in DanishAfghanistan cooperation The strategic objectives for Denmark s engagement are chosen on the basis of Danish foreign, security and development policies and Afghanistan s own development priorities as well as the 4

7 experience gained from the previous [1] Danish engagement in Afghanistan, including where and how Denmark contributes best. The Danish Country Programme for Afghanistan for will form the basis of Denmark's development commitment and will be complemented by a Region of Origin Initiative in support of returning refugees, IDPs and affected communities, humanitarian assistance including a diaspora programme, a Peace and Stabilisation Programme to provide financial support to the Afghan security forces as well as Danish military assistance. It is the ambition to create a closer coherence between humanitarian and developmentoriented efforts in a peacedevelopmenthumanitarian nexus, so as to mutually reinforce each other and create the best possible results. The stabilisation and development of Afghanistan depends on collaboration with other international actors. To be efficient, efforts need to be coordinated and aligned. Denmark will prioritize cooperation with the European Union (EU), the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) and Resolute Support Mission (RSM)/NATO to create synergies and better coherence as well as a more efficient division of labour. Through the World Bank, which is providing the main vehicle for transferring donor development assistance to Afghanistan the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund Denmark is participating in important dialogue with Afghanistan. Denmark also participates actively in the International Contact Group on Afghanistan. In addition, Denmark is working closely with the Nordic countries and the Netherlands in the socalled Nordic+ group. This cooperation gives the countries greater impact collectively while at the same time allowing for a more efficient division of labour. Similarly, through the socalled Core 9 group, nonneighbouring countries that are receiving many Afghan refugees are sharing information and coordinating their efforts. Denmark has pledged financial assistance for at an average level of DKK 425m per year. In addition, Danish troops will be deployed. The Danish Country Programme for Afghanistan should secure continued alignment with the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework and take into account Danish policy focus and choices of support modalities. The vast majority of the financial assistance will be delivered through multilateral channels in order to ensure alignment with Afghan priorities, improved donor coordination and accountability. Strengthening national institutions, fighting corruption and building economic selfreliance will remain key challenges for Afghanistan for the coming decade and shall remain key focus areas for Danish development assistance. This will also serve to improve the human rights of the [1] Denmark's previous cooperation with Afghanistan is described in more detail at and the country programme is described in more detail at 5

8 citizens, strengthen rule of law and promote equal rights, which in turn will generate support for state building and the Afghan institutions. Anticorruption will be a priority for Danish development assistance as well as an integrated part of the delivery modalities for Danish support. Denmark is already focusing systematically on this issue and a comprehensive set of anticorruption policies, guidelines and practices are already in place 1. Denmark will aim at ensuring that the necessary fiduciary controls are in place within partner institutions. In line with the zerotolerance policy of Danish development funding, active actions will be taken in all reported mismanagement, misuse and corruption cases. Human rights will continue to be a priority and Denmark will actively support key actors such as the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission. Focus on creating opportunities for women is a priority in the support for the education sector as well as in the support for the agriculture sector, which holds large potential, including in promoting female entrepreneurs who will serve as role models for others as well as contribute to a key economic sector. Promote political and crosscutting issues through dialogue with Afghan partners The dialogue between Denmark and Afghanistan revolves around issues of mutual interest. In this dialogue, issues related to promoting the stabilisation and development of the country will be raised. This includes, among others, the crosscutting issues of good governance, accountability, anticorruption, human rights and equal opportunities for women and men. These topics are also raised through various multilateral fora where Denmark participates. In the political dialogue with the Afghan government, Denmark will firmly insist on a continued result oriented cooperation on the readmission of Afghan citizens without legal permission to stay in Denmark. This agenda will be pursued both bilaterally with the Afghan government and through the EU. Denmark will stand by the Afghan government in its efforts to carry out a political process leading to a lasting, inclusive and legitimate peace settlement. Only a political settlement can move Afghanistan significantly towards peace and selfreliance over the period until Contribute to strengthening the Afghan security forces The security situation, despite progress made, remains a major concern and is directly hampering the development of Afghanistan. Denmark made a commitment at the Warsaw NATO Summit in 2016 to retain a Danish military presence in Afghanistan. Furthermore, with special attention to Denmark s partners and allies, Denmark is currently looking into the needs and possibilities for further engagements in addition to the approximately 100 Danish soldiers currently deployed [To be updated when a final decision has been taken]. Afghanistan should not again become a safe haven for terrorism and extremism, which could lead to negative spillover of terrorism as well as challenges linked to increased migration. 1 Robustness and Vulnerabilities to Corruption in Denmark s Aid Funding Modalities in Afghanistan, Chr. Michelsen Institute, May

9 The military support will continue to be part of NATO s Resolute Support Mission providing training, assistance and advice to the Afghan military institutions, including mentoring of Afghan teachers at the Afghan National Army Officers Academy, where Afghanistan s future military leaders are educated. In order to further strengthen human rights also in the security sector Denmark s assistance to the Afghan security forces will include human rights awareness and education. A key part of the effort will be the continued leadership in RSM HQ on efforts on Transparency, Accountability and Oversight. These activities are focused on addressing the challenges of corruption in the Afghan security forces. This will complement the strong focus on anticorruption already integrated in the Danish civilian support an area widely believed to be crucial for development as well as for building strong security structures. Through the Danish Peace and Stabilisation Fund, Denmark is contributing to the NATOmanaged Afghan National Army Trust Fund (ANATF) as well as the Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan (LOTFA), which will support the ongoing operation and capacity building of the military and police of the Afghan security forces. Address development and humanitarian challenges for the citizens of Afghanistan The continued development of Afghanistan, which remains one of the poorest countries in the world, is key to sustainable peace and stability. Danish development cooperation with Afghanistan will be aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Contribution to SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) will be made through strengthening the private sector, which is essential to generate economic growth in order to finance development in other sectors. It is important to create jobs and opportunities for people to have a livelihood in the country, in turn facilitating the sustainable return of Afghans from abroad, in particular from neighbouring countries as well as Denmark and other European countries. Afghanistan has a potential to increase its agricultural production and focus will be on stimulating a commercialisation of agriculture and thereby also contributing to SDG 2 (end hunger). Improving education in Afghanistan in order to realize SDG 4 (quality education) and SDG 5 (gender equality), is also a prerequisite for sustainable development and enabling equal opportunities. The synergy between access to education, skills development and improved job opportunities aims at increasing the employment rate of the large youth generation, which is essential to support sustainable economic development. Denmark has been engaged in the education sector for many years and has achieved good results together with our Afghan and international development partners. More children go to school, and especially the number of girls attending school has increased. Still, significant challenges remain. Securing sustainability and strong institutions also require strengthening of governance at various levels and will contribute to SGD 16 (peace, justice and strong institutions). Denmark will prioritise the fight against corruption as it has a detrimental effect on other development efforts as well as on stability. Institution building, reinforcing democracy including through elections and the promotion of human rights are important areas for peace and state building and will also be supported under the Danish assistance to Afghanistan. Improving the capacity of government 7

10 institutions and structures will contribute to an enabling environment for the private sector. Similarly, Afghan civil society will be supported to promote its role as watchdog. Finally, the magnitude of the humanitarian and developmental impact arising from internal displacement of more than 1.5 million people and the massive return of refugees from neighbouring countries strongly affect the Afghan authorities ability to address the country s challenges. Denmark will promote stronger coherence between development cooperation and humanitarian assistance aimed at supporting the integration of refugees and IDPs and supporting them in building a future in safety and dignity in Afghanistan. In this regard, the government s Citizen Charter Program (CC) will be an important platform for the delivery of quality services and infrastructure through Community Development Councils with a target of reaching 8.5m citizens within 4 years. This programme is seen by the Afghan authorities as an important tool for the integration of refugees and IDPs into local communities. The support for CC will be complemented by prioritized engagements through multilateral organisations and civil society partners. E. Monitoring of the Danish engagement Denmark s engagement in Afghanistan is subject to a number of contextual, institutional, fiduciary and programmatic risks. The Danish embassy in Kabul is responsible for monitoring Denmark's development engagement in Afghanistan, and will regularly report on developments in Afghanistan, significant risks and preliminary results. In its monitoring of engagements implemented by other partners, including international organisations, the embassy will focus on the strategic dialogue, relying on the partners own systems for monitoring and reporting. Denmark's engagement will be adjusted in light of specific circumstances, if the situation so requires. Interventions will entail a relatively high level of risk and thus the acceptance of risks in exchange for the potential gains of engagement. Programme managers of financial assistance will do their utmost to mitigate risks. The risk factors will be taken into account and, as a starting point, the risks are carefully managed through detailed risk management matrices for the programmes under the Danish engagement. In preparation for the Danish development efforts in Afghanistan in , as part of a comprehensive country programme, concrete descriptions of the development objectives will be prepared with a clear framework for measuring results. 8

11 MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DENMARK Concept Note for the Afghanistan Country Programme ( ) Draft version

12 Abbreviations ACJC AntiCorruption Justice Centre ACP Afghanistan Country Programme ADB Asian Development Bank AIHRC Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ANPDF Afghan National Peace and Development Framework ARTF Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund CARD F Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development Facility CDCs Community Development Councils DCA Delegated Cooperation Agreement EQRA Education Quality Reform in Afghanistan GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan IES Independent Electoral Commission IECC Independent Electoral Complaints Commission IS Islamic State MTR MidTerm Review National Education Strategic Plan NESP NPP National Priority Programme NUG National Unity Government RDE Royal Danish Embassy in Kabul ROI Region of Origin Initiative SMAF SelfReliance through Mutual Accountability Framework TPs Thematic Programmes TMAF Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework UNAMA United National Assistance Mission in Afghanistan UNDP United Nations Development Programme 2

13 1. Context 1.1 Introduction to the context Denmark has been engaged in Afghanistan since Since the beginning, a concerted effort has been made to coordinate all foreign policy tools available be it in security policy, development policy or humanitarian assistance. Thus, Denmark has been a committed partner in these areas for more than 15 years and has made considerable investments, including about 4.5 billion DKK in development assistance. The security situation is fragile and complex with terrorist, insurgent and criminal interests posing a challenge to stability across the country. The Taliban has accelerated its efforts; and the Government (GIRoA) 1 has also suffered losses, and is under pressure in all corners of the country from armed groups and dissatisfied citizens. The rise of the Islamic State (IS) in the east of the country and activities in Kabul have led to further volatility and attempts to heighten latent ethnic tensions. During the first half of 2017 armed conflict continued to cause severe harm to people across Afghanistan, killing and injuring civilians at levels similar to Between 1 January and 30 June 2017, UNAMA documented 5,243 civilian casualties (1,662 deaths and 3,581 injured). 2 The 2015 parliamentary and district elections have been delayed but are now slated to take place on 7 July Some progress has been achieved such as the confirmation of new officials in the Independent Electoral Commission (IES) and the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) and a roadmap has been developed with clear milestones to be achieved prior to the July elections in However, contentious issues remain to be solved, inter alia, consensus on electoral constituencies, polling technology, and conducting elections in insecure and nongovernment controlled areas. Formalized political opposition groups are embryonic in Afghanistan but it is expected that political alliances, such as Mehwar Mardom (established in July 2017) will develop over the forthcoming months. Political divisions in the National Unity Government (NUG) 3 continue and have served to weaken GIRoA reform efforts and institutional capacity to deliver services, especially at 1 GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2 These numbers mark a decrease of less than one per cent in overall civilian casualties. Civilian deaths increased by two per cent while the number of civilians injured decreased by one per cent. Between 1 January 2009 and 30 June 2017, armed conflict in Afghanistan has claimed the lives of 26,512 civilians and injured 48,931 others (Report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: UNAMA, 2017 MidYear Report) 3 The National Unity Government came to power in 2014 after disputed electoral results between the candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. President Ghani became President and Abdullah Abdullah became Chief Executive Officer 3

14 subnational levels. Progress has been made in increasing numbers of qualified technocrats appointed to senior and midlevel ministerial positions and the establishment of the The Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission is likely to provide momentum to establishing a civil service based on merit. However, ethnic divisions within institutions and patronage systems remain apparent and a challenge to instituting much needed reforms and addressing corruption. The World Bank has reported some economic improvement in the past twelve months with real GDP growth from 1.1 percent in 2015 to 2.2 percent in The World Bank estimates that Afghanistan s growth rate is going to marginally increase to 1.8 percent in 2017 and to 3 and 3.6 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively. These figures stand in sharp contrast to the average growth rate of 9.4 percent sustained in 2003 to 2012, when Afghanistan s economy was mainly driven by international troops and heavy investment in infrastructure. For an economy with an average population growth rate of 3 percent and an estimated 400,000 individuals entering the labor market each year, such low growth is concerning. There has been an increase in the number of returnees to Afghanistan to approximately 600,000 in the second half of There has also been an increase in the number of IDPs, reaching a record level in excess of 500,000 by November 2016 and increasing by more than 100,000 since then. These trends result from a combination of the conflict and external changes such as repatriation from Pakistan and growing numbers of returnees from the migration routes to Europe. Iran has also been deporting Afghans at a higher rate than before A significant proportion of the returnees are settling in urban areas creating a huge toll on the capacity of cities to deal with this large influx of newcomers. The city of Kabul has become one of the fastest growing cities in the world. Altogether, these developments have led to the stretching of absorption capacity in Afghanistan. It is against this background that the GIRoA has revised its key development frameworks and programmes notably the Citizens Charter programme which with a new USD 200 million facility will target reintegration of returnees and IDP s. The Afghanistan Country Programme: (ACP) was originally developed based upon the commitments contained in the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework (TMAF), and the priorities outlined in the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS). During the ACP ( ) implementation period, GIRoA has updated its priorities. In 2015, international donors and GIRoA jointly developed the SelfReliance through Mutual Accountability Framework (SMAF). This framework is accompanied by a discrete set of measurable deliverables for the period Two major international conferences took place in 2016: The NATO conference in Warsaw concluded with larger commitments than expected from donor countries. Commitments were also higher than expected at the donor conference in Brussels 4

15 international commitments of USD 15 Billion were pledged over the next four years. This partially reflects the government s accelerated focus on reform including in particular an increased recognition of and focus on the challenges of corruption. In addition, the new Afghan National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF) is considered a solid and robust development plan that will be implemented through the vehicle of ten National Priority Programmes (NPPs). 1.2 Reference to background analyses The World Bank has highlighted four key messages in its analysis on Navigating Risk and Uncertainty in Afghanistan : (1) Afghanistan will remain heavily resourceconstrained and aiddependent until beyond 2030; (2) Agricultural development and increased investment in human capital can drive economic growth and job creation; (3) As aid declines over time, extractive industries need to be developed to provide an alternative source of revenues and foreign exchange receipts and; (4) Interventions are needed to help firms and households deal with insecurity, including a targeted social transfer system to protect vulnerable households, and new financial instruments to encourage private investment despite high risks. The World Bank s Worldwide Governance Indicator in 2015 gave Afghanistan a score of 5 for Control of corruption, on a scale from 0 to 100. This represents a slight improvement from a score of 1 in both 2005 and Integrity Watch Afghanistan s 2016 survey found that, after insecurity and unemployment, corruption was the third biggest concern for Afghans. An estimated USD 2.9 billion were paid in bribes in 2015, compared to USD 1.25 billion in 2012, which is significantly more than the Afghan government expects to generate in revenue. 4 However, these statistics do not necessarily indicate an increase in corruption in the last two years, rather, they may reveal that Afghan civil society, certain parts of the Government and the international community are now more willing to acknowledge and expose this problem. Indeed, Afghanistan has shown a consistent improvement on Transparency International s Corruption Perception Index from a score of 8 points in 2012 to 15 points in 2016 and ascending to a ranking of 169 in Protection and promotion of human rights, particularly those of women and marginalised groups, remains challenging. The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) documented some cases of domestic violence but most cases continue to go unreported. Human Rights Watch has reported that there has been an upsurge in attacks against journalists in 2016 perpetrated by both the Government and terrorist groups. Both Integrity Watch Afghanistan and Human Rights Watch have observed that the implementation of the Access to Information Law, which came into effect in 2014, remained limited. In a January 2016 media statement, President Ghani urged officials to 4 According to the report, the most common places to pay a bribe (mostly in cash) is at the courts (55%), at the municipalities (53%), to prosecutors (51%), to district governments (42%) and to government officials in Kabul (40%) 5

16 provide information to journalists in a timely manner. But in September 2016, the Oversight Commission on Access to Information reported that the government was failing to share information with journalists. School enrollment has increased from 1 million in 2002 to around 8.7 million for general education in Attendance of girls has risen to 39 percent. The number of teachers have grown from approximately 21,000 teachers (who were largely uneducated) to more than 185,000 teachers. However, only about half of the total registered schools have proper buildings, while the rest operate in tents, houses and under trees. Only 55 percent of the teachers meet the minimum requirements while the rest get inservice training to upgrade their skills. National student learning assessments are yet to be mainstreamed and the quality of education and administration remains relatively weak. 1.4 Elaborate on priorities, policies, systems and structures In alignment with The World 2030 the ACP formulation will prioritise human rights and democracy with a focus on contributing to the democratic rule of law, gender equality and freedom from: corruption, impunity, discrimination, stigmatisation and oppression. The ACP will contribute to securing national framework conditions with institutions that can supply wellfunctioning judicial systems and effective anticorruption measures. Recognising the shrinking civil society space in Afghanistan, the ACP will also continue its direct engagement with civil society organisations through dialogue and cooperation. This Concept Note takes into account the findings and recommendations of the MidTerm Review (MTR) conducted in May The MTR evinced that Danish development strategies in Afghanistan are highly relevant across the three thematic programmes (TPs): (TP1) Good Governance, Democracy, and Human Rights; (TP2) Education; and (TP3) Growth and Employment. Therefore it is the intention to build upon the results achieved in the current ACP and maintain a focus on these thematic areas with nuanced adjustments to reflect the evolving context in Afghanistan. Good Governance, AntiCorruption and Human Rights: Fighting corruption will be a key focus in TP 1. This reflects both the high priority of this issue on the agenda of the GIRoA and also Danish development priorities. Corruption is a systemic problem in Afghanistan that undermines the social contract between citizens and their Government and contributes to insecurity and fragility. The underlying causes and drivers of corruption are broad and Danish programming seeks to focus on three pillars of engagement. First, contribute to institutional strengthening. Second, promote best practices in the stewardship of Danish development assistance. Third, promote a public conversation about corruption by enhancing the agency of the nascent Afghan civil society to hold the Government to account on issues of corruption and thus help to end the culture of impunity. This latter 6

17 pillar also aims to enhance Afghanistan s intention to fulfil its commitments to the Open Government Partnership through improved access to information. These three pillars aim to target key areas in the anticorruption agenda that maximize both Denmark s experience and resources. In line with recommendations from the MTR, anticorruption will also be a cross cutting theme throughout all the thematic programmes. Support to enhancing accountability and transparency in electoral processes will continue to be an important part of the state building enterprise in Afghanistan and in line with the HRBA, the ACP will support both rights holders and duty bearers in these efforts. As outlined in the analysis, human rights abuses are perpetrated by a myriad of actors. Despite Afghanistan s commitments to international human rights conventions, protection of human rights continues to be a serious challenge, especially the rights of women and marginalized groups. Through dialogue and support to human rights actors, the ACP will continue to prioritise the promotion and protection of human rights, recognizing that systemic social change requires sustained intervention. The Private Sector and Agriculture: As noted above, the World Bank analysis points to a bleak economic outlook in the short to medium term with scant opportunities for the labour market to absorb skilled and unskilled labour. Strengthening the private sector is essential to generate growth in order to finance development in other sectors. In this respect, job creation is an important objective. Afghanistan has the potential to increase production in agriculture and focus will be on stimulating a commercialisation of agriculture. Engagements may include a focus on regional value chains with the goal of increasing exports. Also demand led vocational training within and outside the agriculture sector could play an important part in this respect and could link to efforts in the education sector. Education: Improving education in Afghanistan is a prerequisite for sustainable development and enabling equal opportunities. Education plays an essential role in expanding opportunities for participation in democratic governance, employment, access to public services, just as it has made a significant contribution to promoting gender equality and the empowerment of women. It is stressed that a specific focus on girls and underserved populations in rural areas will act broadly as a driver for change, reinforcing consistency with nondiscrimination principles. It increases the capacity of all sections of the population to understand and be aware of human rights, and it assists the state in developing its own capacity to meet its national and international commitments. The national policy priorities for education are set out in the National Education Strategic Plan III: (NESP) and Danish education programming will be fully aligned with this strategy through onbudget multilateral support in this sector. As outlined in the Afghanistan Country Policy Paper, Denmark s partnership with and support to Afghanistan has up till now been based on four pillars; security, development, 7

18 humanitarian support and political dialogue. This will not fundamentally change in the future. The Danish Country Programme for Afghanistan for will form the basis of Denmark's development commitment and will be complemented by a Region of Origin Initiative for returning refugees and IDPs, humanitarian assistance including a diaspora programme implanted through strategic partnerships with NGOs and the UN as well as a Peace and Stabilisation Programme to provide financial support to the Afghan security forces and Danish military assistance. Therefore, the ACP will work within a mutually reinforcing framework where the development goals of good governance, private sector development and education are pursued simultaneously through contributing to peace and stabilisation efforts with support to the Law and Order Trust Fund (LOTFA) and the Afghan National Army Trust Fund. In addition, Danish troops will be deployed. The Nexus between Development and Humanitarian Programming: It is the ambition to create a closer coherence between humanitarian and developmentoriented efforts in a peacedevelopmenthumanitarian nexus, so as to mutually reinforce each other and create the best possible results. Based on the contextual analysis, it is a priority to ensure that the ACP can align development engagements with addressing the acute migration and displacement challenges facing Afghanistan. The ACP will contribute to the Citizen s Charter which is tasked, inter alia, with responding to the needs of returnees and IDPs. It a flagship government service delivery programme which aims to increase citizen s engagement in service delivery through CDCs. Realizing the weak delivery capacity of government ministries, the CDC s will be charged with organising and monitoring service deliveries at village level and will hence become crucial players in reporting and subsequently in combatting corruption. The legitimacy of the Government in the eyes of citizens will in no small way be determined by the success of the Citizens Charter alongside the success of the state security forces.the next phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative (ROI) is being developed to complement the ACP objectives, when it comes to issues of displacement. The ROI will take the shape of a strategic programme framework that can provide the necessary foundation for engaging with the most important displacementrelated Afghan government initiative the Citizens Charter. 1.5 Relation to other relevant partners and actors The World 2030 highlights that Sustainable Development Goal No. 17, Revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development is fundamental to Danish development engagements and a foundation for achieving results within other goals. Denmark, as a longterm partner to the GIRoA, is committed to align and support the development priorities identified by the Government. This is underscored by a commitment to the SMAF whereby the ACP thematic programmes keenly focus on Framework Area 1, Improving Security and Political stability; Area 2 Anticorruption, Governance, Rule of Law and Human Rights, and; Area 5 Private Sector Development and Inclusive Growth and Development. 8

19 In 2016, GIRoA promulgated the ANPDF. This is a five year strategic plan for Afghanistan to work towards selfreliance. The ANPDF is the development plan that represents the operationalisation of the broader principles outlined in the SMAF. The ACP formulation process will help to ensure Denmark s added value in supporting the following GIRoA priorities identified in the ANPDF: (1)Reform of the public sector through support to the Citizen s Charter; (2) Rooting out corruption; (3)Creating jobs by development of the private sector; (4) Growing human capital to drive economic growth and; (5) Women s rights and equality. To contribute to improved development and in line with the principles of aid effectiveness, Denmark will work closely with other partners in Afghanistan. The MTR findings indicated that cooperation between the Nordic+ representations in Afghanistan has deepened and it is the intention to continue to strengthen this group. With a combined aid volume that places them among the top five contributors to Afghanistan, the Nordic+ group shares membership of the group, which constitutes the key vehicle for political and development dialogue between GIRoA and the international community in Afghanistan. The ACP also reflects a strong commitment to working with EU member states to promote the tenets of the EU and the Afghanistan Cooperation Agreement on Partnership and Development. 1.6 Considerations on Danish interests The geographic approach outlined in The World 2030 promotes support to countries characterised by fragility, of which Afghanistan is one. At a macro level, stability and development in Afghanistan may be a catalyst for a more stable region and may help reduce the risk of violent extremism in other parts of the world, including Europe. Economic growth (based on gender parity) and poverty reduction can also have a causal effect on reducing the outmigration from Afghanistan. As such, the ACP seeks, in partnership with others, to further the Sustainable Development Goals 1(poverty), Goal 8 (employment) and 16 (peace, justice and institutions). 2 Presentation of the programme/thematic programmes for country programme. 2.1 Defining objectives, outcomes and theory of change Strengthening weak national institutions, fighting corruption, supporting enhanced education opportunities and contributing to economic development and selfsustainability will be key focus areas for Danish development support. While there are separate theories of change for each of the thematic programmes, the objectives of each are expected to be mutually reinforcing (it is expected that when the formulation mission has been completed, resulting in greater clarity on the development engagements, the programme objectives will be defined more precisely). 9

20 Thematic Programme 1: Good Governance, AntiCorruption and Strengthening Human Rights The theory of change of TP1 is based on the assumptions that strengthening state institutions, especially in regard to transparent and effective judicial systems, instituting a meritbased and gender inclusive civil service and attenuating impunity in regards to human rights abuses and corruption will be key drivers in strengthening the social contract in Afghanistan. GIRoA willingness and capacity to engage in substantive reform processes, including deeper dialogue on progress towards NPPs and ANPDF priorities will be critical in achieving this transformation. This leads to the overall objective of TP1: Contribute to strengthening state institutions at national and subnational levels to embed the social contract between duty bearers and rights holders and counter corruption in order to end the culture of impunity. To achieve this, the immediate objectives are: 1. Civil society has enhanced capacity to monitor and seek redress against corruption through use of the Access to Information Law 2. Public Financial management reforms are implemented, in particular, a finalised provincial budgeting policy (Subnational Governance Policy) Thematic Programme 2: The Private Sector and Agriculture The theory of change of TP2 is based on the assumptions that developing a regulatory environment that meets international standards on quality for produce, promulgating polices that promote export and building and sustaining national and regional value chains will stimulate the private sector and job creation. The need for agriculturally based economic development in Afghanistan is already prioritised by GIRoA in its policies and there will need to be a will to translate this prioritisation into the government s service delivery in support of the private sector ensuring a minimal basis for a competitive agricultural economy, to a degree that motivates women to engage in the agricultural sector, farmers, investors, traders and businessmen to improve their performance. This leads to the overall objective of TP2: Contribute to a broader commercialisation of agriculture and increased job creation through stimulating a more vibrant private sector. To achieve this, the immediate objectives are: 1. Increased licit employment for men and women in particular in agricultural enterprises and agrismes 10