during a recent review mission 1 in April that insecurity and insurgent control has reduced their access to Afghan communities.

Transcription

1 Concept note: Linking humanitarian and development objectives a new phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative in Afghanistan: A strategic programme framework Summary In Afghanistan, there has been an increase in the number of returnees primarily from Pakistan and Iran around 600,000 in the second half of 2016 and in the number of Internally Displaced People (IDPs), reaching by November a record level in excess of having been displaced during 2016 and increasing by more than since then. The latter trend has primarily to do with the continued and increased violence due to ongoing fighting between Afghan government troops and insurgent groups such as the Taliban and Islamic State. It is against this background that the Afghan Government now considers returnee- and IDP issues to be a priority, which is to be mainstreamed into national development planning. In doing so, it has revised important development frameworks of direct relevance to the challenges associated with the displacement crisis. In light of these substantial developments and in line with the pertinent parts of The World 2030, it is suggested that continued Danish support to the Afghan government s displacementrelated efforts are more closely linked with the coming Danish country programme for Afghanistan. However, as the country programme is yet to be formulated and since Afghanistan continues to be confronted with immense and possibly destabilising displacementrelated challenges, it is considered essential to ensure continuity in Denmark s displacementfocused support once the current phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative (ROI) comes to a close by the end of Given this, it is proposed to develop the next phase of the ROI as a precursor to the country programme that is set to be developed in It will take the shape of a strategic programme framework that can provide the necessary foundation for engaging with the most important displacement-related Afghan government initiative - the Citizens Charter; a programme dealing specifically with displacement-related issues. This programme framework will be closely aligned with the new Country programme, with proposed funding to the Citizens Charter programme of DKK 50 million annually during the period Context of the strategic programme framework Since 2014, Afghanistan has had a new administration, many fewer foreign troops, and more than a million newly displaced people. These developments have significantly altered the context since the formulation of the previous phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative (ROI). Denmark has implemented ROI programmes since 2009 as an important vehicle in providing support for durable return and reintegration of Afghan refugees and IDPs. Even if the conflict in Afghanistan has involved a lower number of foreign troops, there have still been large numbers of Afghan casualties. Swathes of the country are not in government control and additional territory is contested. Implementing partners to the third phase of the ROI reported 1

2 during a recent review mission 1 in April that insecurity and insurgent control has reduced their access to Afghan communities. There has been an increase in the number of returnees to Afghanistan around 600,000 in the second half of 2016 and in the number of IDPs, reaching a record level in excess of by November 2016 and increasing by more than since then. These trends result from a combination of internal dynamics such as the conflict mentioned above - and external changes such as repatriation from Pakistan and growing numbers of returnees from the migration routes to Europe. Iran has also been deporting Afghans at a higher rate than before A significant proportion of the returnees are settling in urban areas creating a huge toll on the capacity of cities to deal with this large influx of newcomers. The city of Kabul has become one of the fastest growing cities in the world. Altogether, these developments have led to the stretching of absorption capacity in Afghanistan. Nothing in this context suggests that the overall objective of the ROI has become less relevant. This is underlined by the fact that the Afghan Government now considers returnee- and IDP issues to be a priority that will be mainstreamed into national development planning. In doing so, it has revised important development frameworks of direct relevance to the challenges associated with the displacement crisis. While the full suite of new National Priority Programmes is not yet complete, it is clear that the National Solidarity Programme (NSP), which has been a ROI partner since 2009, is being replaced by the Citizens Charter, which will be a key instrument for the Afghan authorities in addressing displacement challenges, including by working with the integration of refugees and IDPs. The shape of the Citizens Charter has become much clearer over the past months. Building on the Community Development Councils established under the NSP in rural as well as urban areas, it will be an important platform for supporting the delivery of quality services and infrastructure with a target of reaching 8.5 million citizens within 4 years. While operations have yet to commence, it is expected to be able to deliver this year. With these significant developments and in line with the pertinent parts of the Danish Strategy for Humanitarian Action and Development Cooperation, it is recommended that continued Danish support to the Afghan government s displacement-related efforts are more closely linked with the coming Danish country programme for Afghanistan. This approach is also reflected in the draft concept Country Policy Paper, which is currently in a hearing process. However, as the country programme is yet to be formulated and since Afghanistan continues to be confronted with massive and potentially destabilising displacement-related challenges, it is deemed essential to ensure continuity in Denmark s displacement-focused support once the current phase of the ROI-programme comes to a close by the end of This will ensure that the new Afghan government initiatives are supported in a timely and targeted manner, thereby facilitating a much needed increase in absorption capacities in rural and urban areas affected by displacement. 1 The review report is set to be finalised before the Programme Committee Meeting, June

3 On this background, it is proposed to develop the next phase of the ROI as a precursor to the country programme that is set to be developed in in the shape of a strategic programme framework that can provide the necessary foundation for engaging with the Citizens Charter, while also ensuring that the ROI IV be closely aligned with the new Country programme. Alignment is also reflected in the fact that the next phase of the ROI will be funded over the country frame for 2017, which will receive the required additional funding through a finance bill adjustment in the 4 th quarter. Whether the strategic framework and engagement can or will be further integrated into the overall Danish country programme as and when this is developed, will be assessed in connection with the formulation of the country programme. At the same time, the strategic programme framework will serve as reference for upcoming negotiations with Danish NGOs that are playing an important role in the overall response to Afghanistan s displacement challenges. This will include the annual consultations with new civil society partners and related funding processes. 2. Theory of change and overall objectives The theory of change of this framework is based on the assumption that access to land, basic social services and sustainable livelihoods are key foundations for alleviation of humanitarian needs, as well as the durable reintegration of returnees and IDPs, and continued development of affected communities. A strong architecture of government programmes such as Citizens Charter is recognised as a corner stone in addressing these issues, in that it is designed to be the primary vehicle for local development in urban and rural areas across all provinces and districts in Afghanistan and with a specific focus on IDPs and returnees. In view of this, the overall theory of change is that if Denmark, along with other partners, provides support to Citizens Charter it will constitute an efficient contribution to a sustainable improvement in the ability of Afghan society to address not only the challenges of reintegration of IDPs and returnees but also recurrent humanitarian needs within a long-term development framework. By doing so, the engagement could also contribute to addressing some of the root causes of outward migration, including by underpinning a possible, positive impact of the national programmes on the general trust in, and legitimacy for, the Afghan government. This leads to the overall objective of the strategic framework: Enhanced sustainable reintegration of IDPs and returnees in Afghanistan and alleviation of humanitarian needs through a sustainable reduction in vulnerabilities. To achieve this, the immediate objectives are: 1) Alleviation of humanitarian needs among IDPs and returnees; 2) Sustainable reintegration of displaced people into Afghan society enhanced through strengthened absorption capacity both in rural and urban areas 3

4 3. Focus of the strategic programme framework Leaning on the history from the different phases under the ROI Afghanistan, the focus in the coming strategic programme framework will be on IDPs and returnees trying to reintegrate into Afghan society through catering to their immediate needs as well as securing a sustainable reintegration process in the longer term. This will act as a precursor for the coming Afghanistan Country Programme through focusing on forced displacement, this having evolved into being one of the main development challenges for Afghanistan. The Citizens Charter is structured around the engagement of different ministries. One aspect will assist returnees and receiving rural communities in manners that enhance sustainable rural livelihoods and services, based on locally agreed priorities. This is (close to) a continuation of the NSP with some additionalities regarding displaced groups. Thereby continuity is ensured in respect of ROI III, but in line with the recent review of this there will also be a greater focus on ensuring that the new programme is sufficiently responsive to population movements, thus ensuring that newly settled returnees and IDPs are allowed full access to the range of services provided by the programme. Secondly, and in line with the recommendations from the review, the new engagement will also include a sizeable component in respect of displacement challenges in urban and peri-urban areas. This reflects that returning refugees and IDPs along with others in search of a better life have settled in Afghan cities in big numbers, causing them to grow well beyond their capacity (in terms of housing, social and physical infrastructure, livelihoods etc.), in spite of continued attempts to prevent this from happening. The new government has instead acknowledged the massive need for initiatives related to urban services and livelihoods, and the new Danish programme will respond to this. Within this overall framework, two new areas will be investigated further with a view to take into account particular vulnerabilities and challenges that are not likely to be fully covered by other actors: 1) It is expected that displaced persons have particularly severe needs due to the fact that they often reside in informal settlements and other areas where access to basic services either does not exist or is under enormous pressure due to an influx of returnees and/or internally displaced people. 2) Among returnees, children, young people and female-headed households are often found to be particularly vulnerable. 4. Possible partners The largest partner under ROI III was the Afghan government programme NSP. This was very much focused on rural Afghanistan and employed an approach involving cash grants to local communities through elected Community Development Councils that were in charge of setting priorities and selecting implementation modalities, guided by external facilitating partners. While this programme generally proved highly successful, it was also characterised by a number 4

5 of shortcomings with regard to forced displacement as identified by the recent review of the ROI. The NSP has closed now, but is being superseded by the new more inclusive Government programme, Citizens Charter, which is poised to play an important role as the new flagship development programme, covering all accessible parts of the country. For the new Danish country programme, it offers two significant advantages as compared to NSP. Firstly, it will respond to development needs in rural as well as urban and peri-urban areas, thereby enhancing coverage dramatically and in ways that are responsive to the challenges of urbanisation. Second, it will include a distinct, cross-cutting focus on displacement and reintegration through ensuring that returnees and IDPs seeking to settle will be part of local governance structures and have access to the same basic social and livelihood-oriented services as other parts of the local population. With these changes, the Citizens Charter offers to be an ideal vehicle for supporting the Afghan government in meeting the development challenges of displacement through promoting sustainable reintegration of returnees and IDPs in both rural and urban areas throughout the country. 5. Development engagement: Citizens Charter The above reflects that the Citizens Charter programme is a highly ambitious but also relevant endeavour that will be part of the backbone of future development in Afghanistan. It will build upon the foundation created by NSP but also reach much further, not only in terms of covering urban areas but also by expanding sectoral coverage in rural areas through dealing with, and reforming, the Community Development Councils as the key instrument. As a part of this, it will also expand a recently initiated cash-for-work scheme for districts across Afghanistan called the Maintenance and Construction Cash Grant (MCCG). In rural areas, community development councils are expected to implement development projects of the ministries of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, Agriculture and Livestock, Health, and Education, each of these being involved in the overall coordination and management of their respective components. Parallel to the rural CDCs, urban community development councils will be created under the municipal framework by the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG). The activities in urban areas will also seek to ensure minimum service standards, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups including returnees and IDPs in informal urban settlements. Activities in urban areas will i.a. include supply of potable water, women s livelihood projects, street upgrading and drainage as well as environmental and greening projects (e.g. also employment) and electricity provision. Both urban and rural development councils are responsible for monitoring project implementation, maintenance, and accountability, as well as building relations with the government. The funding will be channelled through the World Bank s Trust Fund for Afghanistan Afghan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF). The upcoming formulation mission will have 5

6 specific consultations on how to preference (earmark) Danish funding to the Danish priorities outlined in the objectives and thematic focus areas mentioned above. This will be done on the basis of a comprehensive context analysis, covering both the return of registered and unregistered refugees from neighbouring countries as well as the situation pertaining to internal displacement and affected local communities. Apart from feeding into the formulation of the precursor and the later country programme, this will also serve as a reference framework for upcoming annual negotiations and other processes leading to support to displacement-related activities through Danish NGO partners. The suggested budget for this engagement is 150 million DKK over the three year period, which corresponds to 50 million DKK annually. Technical assistance, studies and research, monitoring, reviews and evaluations A budget line will be allocated to technical assistance, monitoring, reviews, evaluations and possibly a new programming phase, with due adherence to procurement rules. This will be used to cover the mandatory reviews, and ad hoc monitoring as required. The tentative budget for this engagement is 5 million DKK. Regarding monitoring of the results as such, it is envisaged that the RDE in Kabul will undertake the main part of the day to day dialogue with the engagement under the Citizens Charter as part of this programme framework being a precursor to the overall country programme for Afghanistan. Furthermore the recently undertaken review of the ROI phase III has demonstrated that a continuous dialogue with a large Government undertaking such as the Citizens Charter is required if Danish priorities are to be achieved. 6. Application of human rights-based approach As the Citizens Charter Programme is a new Government endeavour this analysis will be dealt with thoroughly under the upcoming formulation mission to Kabul, where extensive conversations will be held with relevant ministries, the World Bank and other organisations regarding the concrete outline of the Citizens Charter. Focus will be placed on the PANT principles, in particular on how this is going to be operationalised. 7. Communication on results Communication of results achieved by the Danish support will be an integrated part of the programme framework. For the development engagement a communication plan will be outlined, based on each relevant target group: 1) Stakeholders in Denmark (decision makers and general public), 2) Afghan decision makers in/outside involved organisations/institutions, and 3) thought leaders in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Denmark (think tanks, civil society, academia, experts). A variety of media will be used to disseminate results. For results on outputs (e.g. a newly developed Community Development Council with participation of IDPs) Internet and 6

7 Facebook will be used to post short success stories. For larger results, for example on objective or outcome level, communication channels could be longer newspaper articles (opeds) in Afghan or Danish newspapers, lectures targeting think tanks or academia, or an entire seminar dedicated to discussing results with a variety of stakeholders. 8. Sustainability and exit strategy The exit strategy will be looked at during formulation and as a requirement in the mid-term review (foreseen to take place in 2019). The focus of this during the formulation mission will be on the short term and medium term gains that can be expected in a programme focussing on alleviation of humanitarian needs and integration, linking to considerations on prospects and potentials for vulnerable groups to be included in longer term development processes, employment etc. Considerations of exit will very much be linked to the continuing development of the returnee and displacement situations, as well as of the development of the Afghan Government s capacity to address the associated challenges. 9. Risk Management The Programme will be implemented taking into account and trying to mitigate a range of contextual, programmatic and intuitional risk factors. The Programme relies on the guiding principles for programmes and projects, and the interventions will embrace a relatively high level of risk. This risk acceptance makes it even more important to carefully manage risk taking by, as a starting point, developing a detailed risk management matrix. A preliminary outline of risks is defined in annex C, and a more detailed risk management matrix will be developed in the final programme document. An important risk to this approach is that the Citizens Charter program may not fully address the needs for basic services and livelihood opportunities in all relevant provinces and districts in Afghanistan while at the same time maintaining a specific focus on IDPs and returnees. This was a risk that to some extent materialised under the NSP. The priority given by the Afghan government to displacement in its new approach is in itself an indication of additional intent to have an inclusive approach towards the displaced population. Further, it is a risk that Denmark will attempt to mitigate by having a relatively strong earmarking (preferencing) of funds for displacement-related purposes within our support for the Citizens Charter, and by continuing to support complementary activities through Danish NGOs. 10. Management set-up During the current phase of the ROI, management shifted from Kabul to Copenhagen, which resulted in significant challenges when it comes to day-to-day dialogue and follow-up with partners situated in Kabul. Therefore, it is suggested that in the next phase of ROI the RDE will have the dialogue with partners on Citizens Charter (participation in working groups or similar under the ARTF, where the international financing for the programme is placed). The RDE will report back to HMC on progress and key issues and have the main administrative responsibility for the grant, with due support from HMC. The possible need for the recruitment of a national staff for programme support purposes will be considered, keeping in mind current capacity constraints at the RDE. 7

8 11. Budget Preliminary budget for the strategic programme framework (Million DKK) Partner Budget in Phase IV Annual Budget Phase IV Citizens Charter 150 mill DKK 50 mill DKK TA, reviews & programming 5 mill DKK 1,67 mill DKK* Total 155 mill DKK 51,67 mill DKK *Not necessarily to be disbursed annually. 12. Annexes A. Process Action Plan; B. Preliminary Results Framework on outcome level; C. Preliminary Risk Management Matrix; D. Background Analysis Matrix; 8

9 Annex A: Preliminary Process Action Plan Phase Task Timeline Respons ible unit Presentation for the Programme Committee Development and appraisal of programme document Drafting of concept note and necessary annexes Confirm agenda item for Programme Committee Meeting Submission of concept note and annexes Public consultations on concept note Programme Committee meeting Design of appraisal process planned: desk study, ToR, single sourcing, etc. Field visit to Kabul Drafting of programme document and relevant annexes Finalised draft programme document + relevant documentation forwarded to KFU for appraisal Appraisal of programme document 5 May to 1 June HMC in ongoing dialogue with Kabul/K FU Documentation 27 April 2 HMC Status: Done. Thursday 1 June HMC Concept note and annexes 7 June 20 June KFU Concept note and annexes Monday 26 June HMC Concept note and annexes. List of received responses from the consultations and summary conclusions from the Programme Committee. June KFU/H (ToR) MC 2 July - 8 July FT (tentatively) 8 July 24 August FT 24 August 3 FT Draft Programme Document incl. Development Engagement Documents and associated partner documentation 25 August 10 September KFU 2 Dates in bold letters indicate deadlines connected to presentation in relevant committees (programme committee, council for development policy, finance act committee) 3 Be aware of potential Summer Holidays in July 9

10 Presentation for the Council for Development Policy Ministerial approval Approval from Finance Act Committee Final phase Confirm request for agenda item Summary of appraisal sent to state secretary for devt. policy Submission of grant proposal to KFU Meeting in Council for Development Policy Submission of input to minutes of meeting Appropriation note (bevillingsnotits) drafted and secured minister approval in F2 Appropriation bill (aktstykke) is drafted Appropriation bill sent to UPF Finance Act Committee meeting Commitments and disbursements to partners Implementation of program 31 August (7 weeks prior to meeting) 6 weeks prior to meeting (14 September) 9 October (13 working days prior to meeting) HMC KFU? FT/HM C 26 October HMC October (1 working day after meeting) Late October/beginning of November HMC HMC Appraisal report, recommendations summary Cover pager, programme document, relevant annexes Appropriation note Late HMC October/beginning of November Beginning of Appropriation bill November Mid December UPF Appropriation bill Mid-late December January 1 st, 2018 HMC Partners/ HMC 10

11 Linking humanitarian and development objectives a new phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative in Afghanistan: A strategic programme framework Annex B: Preliminary Results Framework on outcome level The programme framework uses the organisation s own results framework in order to align the Danish support as much as possible to the organisation s own priorities to achieve better results and to ensure sustainability. The final results framework, on output level, will thus be agreed with the relevant authorities partaking in the Citizens Charter Programme during formulation. Below follows the preliminary results framework on outcome level. The theory of change of this framework is based on the assumption that access to land, basic social services and sustainable livelihoods are key foundations for alleviation of humanitarian needs, as well as the durable reintegration of returnees and IDPs, and continued development of affected communities. A strong architecture of government programmes such as Citizens Charter is recognised as a corner stone in addressing these issues, in that it is designed to be the primary vehicle for local development in urban and rural areas across all provinces and districts in Afghanistan and with a specific focus on IDPs and returnees, In view of this, the overall theory of change is that if Denmark, along with other partners, provides support to Citizens Charter it will constitute an efficient contribution to a sustainable improvement in the ability of Afghan society to address not only the challenges of reintegration of IDPs and returnees but also recurrent humanitarian needs within a long-term development framework. By doing so, the engagement could also contribute to addressing some of the root causes of outward migration, including by underpinning a possible, positive impact of the national programmes on the general trust in, and legitimacy for, the Afghan government. This leads to the overall objective of the strategic framework: Enhanced sustainable reintegration of IDPs and returnees in Afghanistan and alleviation of humanitarian needs through a sustainable reduction in vulnerabilities. To achieve this, the immediate objectives are: 1) Alleviation of humanitarian needs among IDPs and returnees; 2) Sustainable reintegration of displaced people into Afghan society enhanced through strengthened absorption capacity both in rural and urban areas The outcomes on development engagement level are: Development engagement 1: Citizens Charter (CC): 1) Enhancing the likelihood of IDPs and returnees to be represented in local community councils and to access local services and livelihood opportunities as a precondition for durable integration. 2) Alleviation of hardships for returnees and IDPs by enhancing absorption capacity of rural as well as urban areas thereby also contributing to the sustainable (re)integration of IDPs as well as returnees. 3) Promoting trust in and legitimacy of the Government of Afghanistan through supporting a key development program with national coverage. 11

12 Linking humanitarian and development objectives a new phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative in Afghanistan: A strategic programme framework Annex C: Preliminary Risk Management Matrix Contextual risks Risk Factor Likelihood Impact Risk response Background to assessment Violence and fighting increase. Displacement and returning Afghans stretch capacity of Government and infrastructure. Likely Minor Violence has increased in recent years, but partners under ROI III have been coping adequately. Citizens Charter, as a government programme with a thorough understanding of the context, is operating with the required amount of agility and flexibility. Likely Minor The programme framework is targeting this risk factor explicitly by contributing to enhance government and community absorption capacity thereby alleviating some of the pressure. Afghanistan has continuously seen a deteriorating trend in levels of conflict between Government forces and insurgent groups (the Taliban, ISIS). This trend will in all likelihood continue. Afghanistan has seen massive increase in numbers of returns from especially Iran and Pakistan during the past year, while at the same time experiencing massive internal displacement due to continued fighting. 12

13 Programmatic risks Risk Factor Likelihood Impact Risk response Background to assessment The Citizens Charter programme fails to deliver on its objectives. Citizens Charter not fully delivering basic services in all relevant provinces and districts while at the same time maintaining a specific focus on IDPs and returnees. The enhanced focus on urban areas does not secure that Danish funding stands out from the rest. Unlikely Major Reconsideration of Danish support to the Citizens Charter. Unlikely Minor The Danish funding will attempt relatively strong earmarking to displacementrelated purposes and continued support to complementary activities through Danish NGOs. Unlikely Minor If the continued monitoring of programme framework development shows that the focus on urban Different stakeholders have high hopes for the new Government programme, Citizens Charter, also when it comes to issues of displacement. Should the programme fail to deliver, it could have major impact on Danish support, if the Danish priority areas, such as displacement, see a loss of traction. The risk of somewhat mixed purposes materialised under the NSP. However, the priority given by the Afghan government to displacement in its new approach is in itself an indication of additional intent to have an inclusive approach towards the displaced population. The explicit focus on urban and periurban areas is a new endeavour compared to the ROI. It might not provide the 13

14 areas do not come across, communication on the efforts can be enhanced. Danish programme framework with the edge that distinguishes this programme framework from other programmes dealing with displacement. But with the right communication, it is highly possible that the programme framework will distinguish itself from the rest, especially when it is taken into consideration that it will feed into the coming Afghanistan Country Programme. Institutional risks Risk Factor Likelihood Impact Risk response Background to assessment Denmark s financial contributions are misused. Unlikely Possibly major If a case of misuse comes to the attention of the MFA, the normal procedures for handling of possible corruption cases etc. would be used. Depending on the case different measurements would be taken; the most severe of which would be the immediate stop of Danish Though the Citizens Charter is expected to have clear procedures regarding anticorruption, the environment in Afghanistan is prone to corruption. Misuse can therefore happen even though procedures are in place. 14

15 funding to the organisation or area affected. Poor governance Likely Minor As the programme framework sets out to enhance capacity and governance through the Citizens Charter Programme the effect to this particular framework will be limited. The unstable political situation and poor governance is one of the important risk factors in Afghanistan. The risks of political instability are high both within the National Unity Government and from outside. However, the government is committed to reforms, improving governance, and tackling corruption. But the political context remains uncertain. 15

16 Linking humanitarian and development objectives a new phase of the Regions of Origin Initiative in Afghanistan: A strategic programme framework Annex D: Background Analysis Matrix The preliminary analysis below has been developed during the ROI identification and review mission in April However, the upcoming formulation mission to Afghanistan will have as one of its key purposes to develop it in greater detail, and thereby provide a comprehensive context analysis for the strategic programme framework. The matrix on Inclusive sustainable growth, climate change and environment has not been included, as the relevance to this particular programme framework is limited. In addition the assessment of human rights situation (HRBA) and gender will be analysed in depth during the upcoming formulation mission, which is why it has for now - been left out in this annex. 1. Overall development challenges, opportunities and risks Briefly summarise the key conclusions from the analyses consulted and their implications for the programme regarding each of the following points: - General development challenges. Afghanistan remains one of the most dangerous countries in the world, affected as it is by both continuing violent conflict and a high frequency of natural disasters. Violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and Human Rights Law (HRL) occur regularly - including targeted killings, forced recruitment and attacks on health and education facilities. The country is facing an increasing number of people on the move. In 2016 the conflict has led to unprecedented levels of displacement, reaching more than across all 34 provinces by May On average, every day sees another 1,500 people forced to leave their homes, escaping violence. Approximately 20 % of the IDPs are found in gradually expanding areas of nongovernment controlled territory and therefore extremely hard to reach for humanitarian actors. On top of this, 2016 saw the unprecedented return of some 600,000 registered refugees and undocumented Afghans from Pakistan. For the majority, return is reluctant, and the experience often abrupt and distressing. Once in Afghanistan, many of them add to the ranks of internally displaced, as conflict and lost community networks prevent them returning to any ostensive place of origin. With no obvious prospects for an improved state of affairs, the UN estimates that 2017 is likely to see at least 450,000 new IDPs and potentially as many as a million more Afghan returns from Pakistan and Iran. The massive increase in the number of registered and unregistered refugees and migrants returning from neighbouring countries puts immense pressure on the overall absorption capacity, including in respect of infrastructure such as water supply in urban areas, land, livelihood opportunities and basic social services. The new government program, the Citizens Charter, is meant to address some of these pivotal issues of conflict and displacement by for instance strengthening living conditions and resilience in urban and rural communities around Afghanistan, thereby also enhancing government legitimacy, which is very bleak. 16

17 - Development in key economic indicators. As the context of Afghanistan is one of continued conflict and violence, Afghanistan will for years, if not decades, be dependent on international support in terms of both security and development. The World Bank argued at the Brussels conference in the fall of 2016, that Afghanistan will remain heavily resource constrained and aid-dependant through 2030 and beyond. Economic growth is therefore sluggish and in 2016 it has not kept pace with the population growth. Current economic projections by the World Bank indicate low annual growth rates below 4 % until after Until Afghanistan has peace, large-scale new private investment is unlikely. Public investment, typically driven by a growing economy, will also be constrained. Therefore international partners will remain a crucial financier of development in Afghanistan, but the support will likely decline over the next 5 to 10 years, making it necessary for the Government of Afghanistan to increasingly focus on sustainability. In addition, with the current population growth, there will be negligible improvements in incomes and living standards with a resulting high risk of instability. In this context, it is of critical importance to address the needs of IDPs and returnees as well as receiving urban and rural communities in order to increase the absorption capacity and support overall development of livelihoods and services in these communities and build a stronger governance foundation in order to support durable reintegration as well as continued development and stability. - Status and progress in relation to SDGs, in particular those that are special priorities for Denmark. The support under the proposed program will specifically target Sustainable Development Goals 11, sustainable cities and communities, by focusing on challenges to urban areas and communities that the displacement situation in Afghanistan creates, thereby hopefully enhancing the absorption capacity of these communities. Furthermore the support for Citizens Charter will also be part and parcel of supporting SDG 16, Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, as the Citizens Charter will work to enhance accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels by developing more inclusive and transparent Community Development Councils. - Political economy, including drivers of change There have been substantial improvements in development outcomes in Afghanistan since 2001, particularly in terms of improved access to basic services such as water, sanitation, and electricity, and increased human development in education and health. However, some gains are now being eroded due to growing insecurity, stagnating growth, and rising levels of poverty. Economic growth in Afghanistan has slowed after a period of rapid growth between 2003 and While the Government of Afghanistan is committed to an ambitious reform program, it is doing so in the midst of political and economic uncertainty. Afghanistan remains a deeply fragile and conflict-affected country. The long years of war have hollowed out state institutions and led to widespread disenchantment with the ruling elite and have fuelled the Taliban insurgency. Internal displacement as a result of conflict has led to over 1 17

18 million internally displaced people. At the same time, the country s difficult topography, vulnerability to climate change, and growing population at 3 percent a year have imposed additional constraints on development. For economic growth to have any impact on poverty, it has to be particularly high and broad based to compensate for the high population growth rate and youth bulge. At nearly 50 percent, Afghanistan s proportion of population aged 15 years or below is the second highest in the world. Poor nutrition, especially of children, threatens welfare and education gains. Challenges such as corruption, conflict, criminality and unemployment remain significant tests for Afghanistan. While resolving security challenges will require political negotiations and military success, increasing public confidence that the Government can provide equitable quality services will increase support for Government in this difficult context. As a result, the situation of displacement and the response from the Afghan government is very much dependent on the general security situation in Afghanistan. This very much affects whether (positive) change is possible or not, though the security situation is also dependent on how issues such as governance fare. Therefore no simple cause and effect relationship can be developed the context is too complex for a simplistic model, which also deems the upcoming comprehensive context analysis all the more relevant. List the key documentation and sources used for the analysis: The World Bank: Supporting growth and stability in Afghanistan: the country partnership framework summary 2017 to 2020 (2016). International Crisis Group: Afghanistan: The Future of the National Unity Government (2017). Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF) (2016). Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Citizens Charter National Priority Programme (2016). Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN): Taliban Views on a Future State (2016). AAN: Daesh and Taleban in Afghanistan (2016). AAN: Insurgency and governance in Afghanistan s northeast (2016). AAN: The evolution of insecurity in Kunduz (2015). UN: The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2016 (2016). UNDP: Afghanistan, Human Development Report Human Development for Everyone (2017). 18

19 Are additional studies / analytic work needed? How and when will it be done? During formulation a comprehensive context analysis will be undertaken in order to inform the collaboration with the Citizens Charter and feed into the programming of the Afghanistan Country Programme, when it comes to issues of displacement and returnees. 19

20 2. Fragility, conflict, migration and resilience Briefly summarise the key conclusions and implications for the programme of the analysis of the below points: - Situation with regards to peace and stability based on conflict analysis and fragility assessments Afghanistan is a context of conflict and fragility, which is why displacement takes centre-stage in the proposed programme framework. The below preliminary drivers of fragility have been identified so far. As key drivers of fragility three main challenges can be listed, based on a Systematic Country Diagnostic, carried out by the World Bank Group: i) Weak state and political institutions, which lack clear mandates and depend heavily on decisions driven more by intra-elite bargaining than by effective use of resources or accountability to citizens. This is exacerbated by privileged access by the elite to economic resources public procurement contracts, revenue sources, land, mining contracts, and proceeds from illicit economic activities. ii) The persistent Taliban insurgency, bolstered both by external forces as well as internally by poor governance. iii) Internal ethnic divisions, which have been made worse during the past several decades of conflict. The tendency to distribute government positions and access to resources through patronage-based networks remains well entrenched. One of the key manifestations of this situation is continued population displacement developing into a growing challenge, in Afghanistan and across the region; currently there are an estimated 3.5 million Afghans living in Pakistan and Iran. There has also been a recent upsurge in the numbers of Afghans fleeing to Europe. Internally as well, conflict is generating an increasing number of internally displaced people; the UN reports that close to were newly displaced in 2016, and so far in 2017 the number exceeds Many move to urban areas, where they make up a large proportion of those who are poor. Compounding this situation is the more or less forced return of more than registered refugees and unregistered Afghans from Pakistan and Iran during 2016, many of them also ending up in urban areas. As a result, government and receiving community resources are stretched to breaking point. - Identifying on-going stabilisation/development and resilience efforts and the potential for establishing partnerships. The proposed programme framework has an explicit focus on Afghanistan, as one of the Danish priority countries in The World 2030 under the heading poor, fragile countries and regions characterised by fragility. The proposed partnership with the Government program, Citizens Charter addresses issues of displacement and fragility directly. It is the hope that this Government partner seen in relation to the coming Afghanistan Country Programme will maximise the effect of the engagements. During formulation the strategic scope of the partnership with the Citizens Charter Programme will be explored in greater detail. 20

21 - Issues and concerns of relevance to Danish interest in the area of security and migration. During the past year, Afghanistan has received more than returnees from Pakistan and Iran; thereby further exacerbating pressure on government services, livelihoods, land etc. All indications are that this return process will continue during the present year. At the same time, the number of internally displaced people has increased significantly because of ongoing conflict. Given this, displacement related issues is developing into a major development challenge for the Afghan government and for Afghan communities. During recent years, the number of Afghans seeking asylum in Europe, including Denmark, has continued to grow. They originate not only from Afghanistan itself but also from refugee communities in Pakistan and especially Iran. The fact that they are moving towards Europe is an indicator of reduced trust in possibilities of building a decent life in Afghanistan at some point in the future. It is the hope that the engagement under this programme framework will help alleviate some of the root causes for irregular migration, by enhancing access to basic livelihoods, services and thereby improved living conditions for displaced individuals and returnees from neighbouring countries along with affected receiving communities. By supporting the Citizens Charter it is also the anticipation that a side-effect of the support to displaced people and affected communities will enhance Government capacity and legitimacy, thereby increasing security in the long term. - Identify where Denmark has comparative advantages that may lead to more effective and efficient programming and better results including where Denmark may contribute with deployment of specific expertise and capacities. Generally, Denmark is at the forefront as a donor willing to invest in and promote development responses to forced displacement. This has led to strong partnerships with e.g. the World Bank and UNHCR, something that the present programme framework will also be able to benefit from. Denmark has a distinct comparative advantage by being a flexible and predictable partner, as also documented during the previous phases of the ROI. This makes partners able to respond to a rapidly changing context and emerging crises at short notice. Such response can include reallocation of funds from the outlined partner activities to other more timely activities that has been adjusted to the needs of rapid context changes. Danish alignment with the organisation s own frameworks and strategies where these align with Danish priorities increases ownership and sustainability and increases the chances of achieving results. - Considerations regarding the humanitarian situation, migration, refugee and displacement issues, including the need to integrate humanitarian-development linkages and long term strategies; The programme framework will work directly with humanitarian issues, especially refugee and 21

22 displacement issues, through the Citizens Charter, with an explicit focus on the humanitariandevelopment nexus. - Relevant issues and considerations related to radicalisation and violent extremism and the potential for Danish engagement to prevent and counter violent extremism (P/CVE) The programme framework will work only indirectly and peripherally with issues of radicalisation and violent extremism in the way that a long-term effect of increasing Afghan absorption capacity, thereby increasing Government capacity and legitimacy, could spur the ground for less support for violent and radical insurgent groups. List the key documentation and sources used for the analysis: International Dialogue for Peace and State Building New Deal: DAC International Network on Conflict and Fragility (INCAF): World Bank - Fragility, Conflict and Violence: Solution Alliance (humanitarian-development nexus) : EU. Crisis and fragility management: Global Peace Index ( Failed State Index ( UNSCR 1325 The World Bank: Supporting growth and stability in Afghanistan: the country partnership framework summary 2017 to 2020 (2016). OCHA: Afghanistan: 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan (2017). UNHCR: Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees to Support Voluntary Repatriation, Sustainable Reintegration and Assistance to Host Countries (2015). Are additional studies / analytic work needed? How and when will it be done? As with the other matrixes a more comprehensive analysis of fragility, conflict, migration and resilience will be developed as part of the formulation and upcoming field trip to Afghanistan. 22

23 3. Assessment of human rights situation (HRBA) and gender Briefly summarise the key conclusions and implications for the programme of the analysis of the below points: This specific analysis is deemed relevant for this strategic programme framework. However, due to the complexity of the context, a thorough analysis will be carried out during formulation and as part of the coming field trip to Kabul. The point of departure for this coming analysis will be that the key right holders are the Afghan population, or more narrowly defined IDPs and returnees seeking a sustainable reintegration into Afghan society. The duty bearers are the Citizens Charter Programme itself and with it the Government of Afghanistan. List the key documentation and sources used for the analysis: To be developed during formulation. Are additional studies / analytic work needed? How and when will it be done? As mentioned this analysis will be carried out as part of the formulation of the displacementfocused precursor to the country programme. 23