Youth, Conflict & Peacebuilding: Incentives for Youth Mobilization & Reflections on Our Programming
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1 Youth, Conflict & Peacebuilding: Incentives for Youth Mobilization & Reflections on Our Programming Washington Network on Children & Armed Conflict (WNCAC) September 26, 2008 Mark Hamilton & Susan Shepler
2 Web of Youth Transitions
3 Explaining Youth Violence: Key Lenses from the Literature! Group Dynamics Lens Youth Bulges & Polarized Boundaries! Grievance Lens Frustration & Failed Expectations! Greed Lens Opportunities & Coercion
4 Group Dynamics Explanations! Youth Bulges / Security Demographics : Lots of Young Men = Lots of Violence?! Emphasis: Biological vs. Institutional! Polarized Boundaries & Social Networks: CrisisFed UsThem Networks = Violence?! Emphasis: Family vs. Identity Group! Emphasis: EthnoReligious vs. Class! Emphasis: Psychosocial vs. Institutional
5 Grievance Explanations! Frustration and Failed Expectations: Unmet Expectations = Violence?! Emphasis: Relative vs. Absolute Deprivation! Emphasis: Comparing w/ Other Groups vs. Comparing w/ Recent Experience! Emphasis: Political vs. Economic Participation
6 Greed Explanations! Opportunities and Coercion: Organizational Incentives = Violence?! Emphasis: Carrots vs. Sticks (Example: War Booty vs. Fear)! Emphasis: Political vs. Economic Options
7 What Do You Think?! Which Explanation or Theoretic Lens Best Explains Youth Violent Mobilization in the Conflict Settings You Know Best?! Other Explanations?
8 Effective Explanations of Violence: Synthesis Based on Case Knowledge Source: Richardson Paradise Poisoned: Learning About Conflict, Terrorism and Development from Sri Lanka s Civil Wars.
9 Group Exercise: Mobilizing Youth Violence Imagine You Are the Leadership Junta:! State Military! NonState Armed Group! Gang / Criminal Network! Political Party Consider Goals, Strategies, and Constraints
10 Questions to Consider in Groups: Mobilizing Youth Violence! What are the Primary Goals of Your Organization?! How Does Involving Youth Help you Achieve Goals?! What Roles Do You Want Youth to Play? Is This the Same/ Different for Young Men & Women?! How Do You Plan to Involve Youth? Methods?! What are Contextual Factors Working for You? How Do You Channel/ Leverage Such Factors?! What are Key Constraints That You Face?
11 From Violent Mobilization to Strategies For Peacebuilding & Development! What Lessons Can Our Organizations Learn From These Kind of Violent Networks?! What Kind of Incentives Do Our Programs Offer to AtRisk Young People?! How Can We Strengthen Our Youth Focus?! What are the Main Challenges We Face?
12 Dilemmas for Youth Programming Consider Risks & Benefits Along Continuum! Protection vs. Participation! Global vs. Local Definitions of Youth! Donor Demands vs. Local Needs! Political vs. Programmatic" Focus! Others?
13 Ladder of Youth Participation: From Manipulation to DecisionSharing
14 3 Keys for Alternative Youth Mobilization! Enhancing Youth Political and Economic Opportunities! Encouraging Social Ties across Common Boundaries! Offering Incentives for Nonviolent Youth Mobilization
15 System Dynamics in Action: Bathtub Dynamics of Model Population Flows! Yearly Changes = Faucet Rates: Maturation, Mortality, and Attractiveness of Mobilization ProGovt Population 014 ProGovt Population 1529 ProGovt Population 3059 ProGovt Population 60 Unaffiliated Population 014 Unaffiliated Population 1529 Unaffiliated Population 3059 Unaffiliated Population 60 Opposition Population 014 Opposition Population 1529 Opposition Population 3059 Opposition Population 60 <Militant to Opposition Attractiveness> Militant to Opposition Mobilization Rate Opposition to Militant Mobilization Rate <Opposition to Militant Attractiveness> Militant Population 014 Militant Maturation Rate 1415 Militant Population 1529 Militant Maturation Rate 2930 Militant Population 3059 Militant Population 60 Militant Death Rate 1529
16 Synthesizing Mobilization Theories: A View from System Dynamics Economic and Political Grievances (Unmet Expectations) Attractiveness for Militant Mobilization Political Grievances Loop Government Repression Level of Conflict (Challenge to Authorit Number of Youth Militants
17 Synthesizing Mobilization Theories: A View from System Dynamics Economic and Political Grievances (Unmet Expectations) Political Grievances Loop Attractiveness for Militant Mobilization Number of Youth Militants State Fear Loop Government Repression Level of Conflict (Challenge to Authority)
18 Synthesizing Mobilization Theories: A View from System Dynamics Militant Resources Available Per Recruit Probability of Attractiveness for Contact with Militant Mobilization Militants (Social Network Effect) S o c i a l Network Loop Organizational / Greed Loop #1 Number of Youth M i l i t a n t s Total Militant Resources Available Level of Conflict (Challenge to A u t h o r i t y ) Organizational / Greed Loop #2 Militant Organizati Resource Mobilizat (Internal and Exter
19 A Brief Primer on System Dynamics: Integrated Causal Loop Diagram Economic Resources of Militant Organization Capacity of Militant Organization Level of Conflict <State Social Investment> <Economic Expectations> Fertility Rates Youth Entering Labor Force Youth Militants Jobs Created Militant Mobilization Youth Job Availability Social Ties to Militant Networks Attractiveness of Militant Mobilization Economic Grievances State Economic Investment Economic Expectations Productivity of Investment State Economic Resources Level of Repression State Social Investment Political Grievances State Repressive Capacity State Security Investment
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