INSTITUTE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT. Cillian Nolan, Sidney Jones and Solahudin 21 September 2013

Transcription

1 INSTITUTE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT Cillian Nolan, Sidney Jones and Solahudin 21 September

2 1999: 1province 10 kabupaten

3 2012: 2 provinces 40 kabupaten

4 A more divided Papuan elite More local conflict, especially through local elections Rise of previously unrepresented suku Importance of elected Papuans as a key group in any discussion on Papua s future A strengthened political role for the central highlands districts (over the traditionally dominant coast)

5 UU Otsus21/2001: agreement from the MRP Government Regulation 78/2007: - at least 5 sub-districts (distrik) -satisfactory performance on a range of technical criteria -agreement of the governor, the DPRD and DPRP - recommendation from Home Affairs -agreement from the DPR - Presidential sign-off But, the sequence is variable

6 More money from Jakarta (DAU, DAK, Otsus) Access to public office, access to rents Expanding authority and status of clans More incentives at village (kampung) level: 860 new villages ; all receive Rp. 100m a year but many likely fall short of 750- person population requirement

7 Still has ramifications: 2011 split of MajelisRakyat Papua into 2, deep distrust of Jakarta s aims

8 Created in 2008 Population in 2010: 93,363 Growth rate: 8 per cent Density: 12 per km 2 First election scheduled: 11/2011 Registration: 7/ candidates both claim Gerindra backing Fault of KPUD, political parties Elvis Tabuni, head of DPRD Puncak and Simon Alom, first caretaker bupati.

9 Fighting broke out between two sides after KPUD rejected Simon s candidacy. By May 2012, some 50 killed.

10 Police accused Elvis of calling asking help from Goliat Tabuni, based in neighboring Puncak Jaya Simon accused of using ethnic Damalclan connections in Kwamki Lama, Timikato get arms to fight Elvis. Some clansmen fought Goliatin Kopassus-organised SatgasRajawalimilitia in 1996 Arms purchased by dealer from Ambon selling leftover guns from Ambon

11 Puncakgovernment pays Rp17M to victims in January 2013 (Rp.300 juta per fatality) Election finally takes place February 2013 Elvis doesn t like the outcome: Willem Wandik wins 8 soldiers killed in Puncak and Puncak Jaya, 21 Feb OPM takes responsibility, different allegations about election links. Willem declared winner, 23 February 2013

12 Population 79,520(2010 census) Annual growth rate (2010 census): 13.2 Number of eligible voters in 2009: 35,134 Number of ballots distributed in 2011: 36,000 Number of eligible voters in 2011: 53,701 Number of votes cast in 2011 pilkada: 53,689 all but 12 of those registered Bupati Yairus Gwijangge

13 Population according to DalamNegeriand KPU (Dec 2012): 194,142 So, let s raise the number of distrikfrom 8 to 32, and the number of villages from 32 to 211. Eligible voters raised from 53,701to 119,964 DPRD objects, Yustinus Gwijangge, ally of bupati, stabbed to death by DPRD members.

14 Reconciliation meeting, June 2013, blood payments Rp.18.5 billion from Nduga budget. Population agreed through negotiation to be 79,520, not 194,142

15 Consolidation of increasing highlander influence, driven in part by increased number of bupatis (from 2 to 14) Primary influence over result is local leaders, not Jakarta and not national political parties

16 Named for the bag, describes a diverse range of unregulated practice. Two themes: no coblosan, open voting

17 Lukas Enembe/Klemen Tinal (52%) Habel Suwae/ Yop Kogoya(18%) Menase Kambu/ Blasius Pakage(13%)

18 May 2012 PuncakJaya case, distrikmewoluk: binding community agreements months before vote In some instances, the nokensystem seems to eliminate entire step of poll-station voting What kind of democratic competition and what kind of accountability does this leave?

19 Not ending direct local elections, but instead: Improved efforts to clean up voter listsand gather more accurate population figures Stepped up oversight of provincial and local elections commissions (KPU) Eliminate the noken system Enforce the criteria for pemekaran Change the incentive structure that makes the creation of new administrative units so financially rewarding

20 Dialogue: Will the increased number of elected local officials (1,050) include people better able to bridge between Jakarta s concerns and more radical audiences at home No revision to Special Autonomy makes sense without a long-term plan for future divisions

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