Public Opinion in Indonesia National Election Survey December 2013

Transcription

1 Public Opinion in Indonesia 2013 National Election Survey December 2013

2 Key Findings The vast majority of Indonesians profess a high likelihood of participation in the 2014 elections, but also report limited levels of information on the elections The majority of Indonesians have positive evaluations of electoral bodies, and are generally satisfied with the work of KPU Voter education efforts should leverage high levels of trust in the KPU, with television and local officials being used as leading conduits for information on electoral matters High levels of importance are attached to the inclusion of women and persons with disabilities in the electoral process

3 Detailed Methodology Sample size: 1,890 respondents representing the voting-age population in Indonesia (17 years+/married). Margin of error: ±2.3 % within a 95% confidence interval. Sample area coverage: 33 provinces in Indonesia; observations were allocated proportionately at the national level with an over-sample of observations in Aceh, Maluku, Papua, and West Papua. Fieldwork dates: December 17 30, 2013 Survey firm: Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) conducts fieldwork and data processing for the survey. Weights: Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (17+) population of Indonesia.

4 Interest and Information on 2014 Elections

5 Likelihood of Voting Somewhat Likely, 9% Not very/at all likely, 1% DK/NR, 1% Very Likely, 90% How likely are you to vote in this election? (n=1,890)

6 Likelihood of Voting By Gender Likely to Vote by Gender 100% 0% 1% 0% 10% 7% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 88% 91% 30% 20% 10% 0% Male Female DK/NA Not at all likely Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely How likely are you to vote in this election? (n=1,890)

7 Interest in Politics December 2013 (n=1,890) 6% 36% 41% 14% 4% March 2009 (n=1,200) 3% 44% 43% 7% 3% September 2008 (n=2,500) 3% 35% 46% 14% 3% Very interested Somewhat interested Not too interested Not at all interested DK/NR Please tell me how interested you are in matters of politics and government. Are you very interested, somewhat interested, not too interested or not at all interested?

8 Interest in Politics December 2013 (n=1,890) 6% 36% 41% 14% 4% March 2009 (n=1,200) 3% 44% 43% 7% 3% September 2008 (n=2,500) 3% 35% 46% 14% 3% Very interested Somewhat interested Not too interested Not at all interested DK/NR Please tell me how interested you are in matters of politics and government. Are you very interested, somewhat interested, not too interested or not at all interested?

9 Information on Elections December 2013 (n=1,890) 2% 20% 52% 21% 5% March 2009 (n=1,200) 1% 21% 68% 8% 2% September 2008 (n=2,500) 2% 12% 54% 26% 6% Great deal Fair amount Not very much None at all DK/NR As you may know, in 2014 there will be legislative and presidential elections in Indonesia. How much information do you feel you have about these elections a great deal of information, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all?

10 Information on Elections December 2013 (n=1,890) 2% 20% 52% 21% 5% March 2009 (n=1,200) 1% 21% 68% 8% 2% September 2008 (n=2,500) 2% 12% 54% 26% 6% Great deal Fair amount Not very much None at all DK/NR As you may know, in 2014 there will be legislative and presidential elections in Indonesia. How much information do you feel you have about these elections a great deal of information, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all?

11 Information on Electoral Processes Registration 23% 67% 10% Voting Procedures and how to Mark the Ballot 20% 69% 11% Information on Where and When to Vote 19% 71% 11% Information on Participating Political Parties 16% 73% 11% Vote Counting - Seat Allocation 13% 72% 15% Vote Counting - How a Candidate is Elected 13% 72% 15% Legislative Candidates 11% 78% 11% Party Vision, Mission, and Programs 8% 79% 13% Have Enough Information Need More Information DK/NR Please tell me whether you have enough information or need more information on the following aspects of the national legislative election process. (n=1,890)

12 Information on Electoral Processes Registration 23% 67% 10% Voting Procedures and how to Mark the Ballot 20% 69% 11% Information on Where and When to Vote 19% 71% 11% Information on Participating Political Parties 16% 73% 11% Vote Counting - Seat Allocation 13% 72% 15% Vote Counting - How a Candidate is Elected 13% 72% 15% Legislative Candidates 11% 78% 11% Party Vision, Mission, and Programs 8% 79% 13% Have Enough Information Need More Information DK/NR Please tell me whether you have enough information or need more information on the following aspects of the national legislative election process. (n=1,890)

13 Documents to Prove Identity 46% 35% 24% 6% 3% 7% Voting Invitation Card Voters Card National ID Card (KTP) Family Card (KK) Other DK/NR Which documents do you think can be used to prove your identity at the polling station when voting in the 2014 national election? (n=1,890)

14 Documents to Prove Identity 46% 35% 24% 6% 3% 7% Voting Invitation Card Voters Card National ID Card (KTP) Family Card (KK) Other DK/NR Which documents do you think can be used to prove your identity at the polling station when voting in the 2014 national election? (n=1,890)

15 Identity Document for Voting TREND: Which documents do you think can be used to prove your identity at the polling station when voting in the 2014 national election? 2008 (n=2,500) 2009 (n=1,200) 2010 (n=2,500) 2013 (n=1,890) Voting Invitation Card 1% 30% 28% 46% Voters Card 91% 88% 62% 35% National ID Card (KTP) 11% 23% 18% 24% Family Card (KK) 1% 1% 6% 6% NA -- <1% <1% 5% Others <1% % Do not remember 2% 1% 2% 2% Passport % <1%

16 Majority are not Aware of Election Date No 54% Yes 46% Do you know when the 2014 national legislative election will take place? [If YES] What date will the election take place? (n=1,890)

17 Knowledge on Marking The Ballot Punching or checking the ballot 9% Punching and checking the ballot 2% DK/NA 10% By checking the ballot 11% By punching the ballot 68% Now thinking about voting in the 2014 elections, from the four methods indicated below, which is the correct way to mark your ballot? (n=1,890)

18 Self-Reported Registration Status December 2013 (n=1,890) 71% 15% 7% 2% 5% March 2009 (n=1,200) 46% 15% 26% 7% 6% Definitely Registered Probably Registered Probably/Definitely Not Registered Unsure of Status DK/NR "Can you please tell me whether or not you are registered on the voter s list (Fixed Voter List, DPT)?

19 Self-Reported Registration Status, by Region Maluku/Papua 77% 13% 4% 6% Sulawesi/Garontalo 77% 15% 5% 3% 1% Kalimantan 81% 9% 3% 2% 1% 5% Bali/NTT/NTB 62% 28% 2% 1% 7% East Java 68% 10% 4% 8% 6% 6% Central Java/Yogyakarta 69% 18% 4% 3% 2% 4% West Java/Banten/Jakarta 70% 13% 5% 3% 3% 7% Sumatra 71% 19% 2% 2% 2% 4% Aceh 77% 10% 3% 10% Definitely Registered Probably Registered Probably Not Registered Definitely Not Registered Very Uncertain of Status Don't Know Can you please tell me whether or not you are registered on the voter s list? (n=1,890)

20 Significant Percentage not Visited during DPT Door-to-Door Verification DK/NR 6% No 42% Yes 53% Now thinking about this past year, can you please tell me whether someone in your community has previously come to your house to check whether you and your family members are registered in the Fixed Voter List (DPT)? (n=1,890)

21 Who Conducted DPT Door-to-Door Verification? Relative/ fellow villagers 37% Local official 18% Village official 18% Election committee 13% BPS official 2% Head of RW or RT 2% Don't remember 9% Now thinking about this past year, can you please tell me whether someone in your community has previously come to your house to check whether you and your family members are registered in the Fixed Voter List (DPT)?

22 Majority has not Checked Registration Status 72% 54% 59% Checked Not Checked Don't Know 35% 33% 18% 9% 10% 8% September 2008 (n=2,500) March 2009 (n=1,200) December 2013 (n=1,890) Have you checked to see if your name was on the voters list/checked your information on the voters list? (n=1,890)

23 Majority has not Checked Registration Status 72% 54% 59% Checked Not Checked Don't Know 35% 33% 18% 9% 10% 8% September 2008 (n=2,500) March 2009 (n=1,200) December 2013 (n=1,890) Have you checked to see if your name was on the voters list/checked your information on the voters list? (n=1,890)

24 Lack of Information is Leading Reason for Not Checking Name on Voter List Lack information 46% Busy, have no time 26% Not interested 10% Directly administered, have KPU sticker 5% Optimist that already registered 3% Lazy/ forgetful 3%

25 Majority has not seen Information on Checking Registration Status DK/NA 3% Yes 29% No 68% Please tell me whether you have heard or seen any information on how you can check the voter register for the 2014 election? (n=1,890)

26 Majority has not Seen Information on Checking Registration Status Have heard or seen any information on how you can check the voter register for the 2014 election (n=1,890) Yes No DK/NA 3% 2% 4% 4% 68% 67% 65% 73% 27% 32% 31% 23% <25 yo yo yo >54 yo Please tell me whether you have heard or seen any information on how you can check the voter register for the 2014 election?

27 Checking Registration Status 46% 65% No I haven't checked to see if my name was on the voters list 50% 25% Yes I have checked to see if my name was on the voters list Yes I have seen info No I haven't seen any info Have you heard or seen any information on how you can check the voter register for the 2014 election? (n=1,890)

28 Opinions on Electoral Bodies

29 Awareness of Election Bodies National KPU 67% 33% Bawaslu 52% 48% District KPU 52% 48% Provincial KPU 51% 49% Aware Not Aware Would you please tell me if you are aware or not aware of the following electoral institutions? (n=1,890)

30 Trust in Electoral Bodies KPU (n=1,267) 5% 71% 15% 0% 8% BAWASLU (n=988) 4% 71% 17% 1% 7% Provincial KPU (n=969) 4% 73% 15% 1% 7% District KPU (n=982) 4% 75% 14% 1% 6% Trust Somewhat Trust Somewhat Distrust Distrust DK/NR Please tell me how much trust do you have in [INSTITUTION]: Trust, Somewhat Trust, Somewhat Distrust or Distrust?

31 Satisfaction with KPU Performance 6% 9% 29% 33% 30% 27% 18% 27% 10% 27% 60% 61% 44% 56% 63% INFORMING AND EDUCATING THE PUBLIC ABOUT THE ELECTION PROCESS IN INDONESIA ENSURING THAT ELECTION RESULTS ARE ACCURATE AND REFLECT HOW PEOPLE VOTED USING THE INTERNET AND SOCIAL MEDIA LIKE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER TO REACH OUT TO VOTERS IN INDONESIA MAINTAINING INDEPENDENCE FROM POLITICAL PRESSURES IN THE ADMINISTRATION OF ELECTIONS Satisfied Unsatisfied DK/NR COMPILING AND ESTABLISHING THE VOTERS LIST THAT IS UTILIZED ON ELECTION DAY Please tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the KPU s performance in the following areas. (n=1,267)

32 Neutrality of Election Body Neutral Not Neutral DK/NA District Panwas (n=904) 71% 16% 13% Provincial BAWASLU (n=812) 71% 17% 12% District KPU (n=981) 72% 16% 12% Provincial KPU (n=981) 67% 15% 17% Do you think the following groups are able to respond neutrally without political influence in issues related with the local regional head election process? (Only those aware of institutions)

33 Sources of Information

34 Television and Local Officials are Leading Information Sources for Elections TV Family and Friends Head of RT Head of Village Newspaper, Magazine Poster, Billboard, Pamphlet Radio Internet Informal Meetings Election Committee Candidate/Party Offical Religious Meetings Party Member 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 17% 16% 12% 10% 10% 65% What sources of information do you generally use to learn about national elections? [Open-ended; multiple responses allowed; n=1,890]

35 Information Sources for Elections (by age) 70% 70% 64% 53% TV RT Head Village Head Family/Friends Newspapers Magazines Posters/Billboards/Pamphlets 24% 15% 16% 16% 13% 13% 12% 13% 13% 8% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 17% 18% 9% 4% >54 What sources of information do you generally use to learn about national elections?

36 Local Officials Most Often Cited as Means to Check the Voter Register Check with RT Head 34% Visit Village Office 18% Check with Village Head 14% Check on KPU Website 4% Other 14% DK/NR 29% Can you tell me all the ways that exist to check whether your name exists on the voters list (DPT)? (n=1,890)

37 Most Effective Way To Encourage People to Vote Advertising Campaigns on TV 36% Informal Meetings Talkshow Programs (TV or Radio) Debates or dialogues among the candidates 8% 8% 8% Using Posters/Banners Religious Meetings Using Brochures or Flyers Advertising Campaign in Print Media Seminars Use of Social Media such as Facebook and Twitter Others 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 5% DK/NR 9% Which of the following do you think is the most effective in encouraging people like you to get out and vote on Election Day? (n=1,890)

38 Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement: Voters should be careful about evaluating what they read or hear about elections in the media. (n=1,890) Vast Majority Careful about Election Information in the Media Somewhat Disagree, 0% Strongly Disagree, 4% DK/NR, 10% Strongly Agree, 15% Somewhat Agree, 71%

39 Opinions on Electoral Issues

40 Experience with Vote-Buying Do you know anyone in your village/region or someone you know who has been given an incentive (t-shirt, staple products) or money in order to vote for a particular candidate or political party? Do you know any candidate or member of a political party who offered an incentive (t-shirt, staple products) or money to you or your family in order to vote for that party? DK/NR 5% Yes 11% DK/NR 5% Yes 11% No 84% No 84% Since KPU finalized party and candidate list for the 2014 election, do you know:? (n=1,890)

41 Attitudes toward Reporting Vote-Buying DK/NR 22% Report whatever amount 19% Report if amount is big 1% Will not report because it is common 57% Report if amount is small 1% How is your attitude if there are people offering you money or goods as a compensation to vote for a particular candidate or political party? Will you report it or not report it?(n=1,890)

42 Qualities Sought in Candidates for Legislative Bodies Honest/Free from corruption 36% Cares about people 18% Personality of candidates 12% Leadership ability Educational background Proposed policies/platform 4% 5% 5% Responsible, keeps promises Experience in government Past performance Others DK/NR 2% 2% 2% 7% 7% When voting for a candidate running for legislative bodies such as the DPR or DPD, what is the most important quality you look for? [Open-ended; n=1,890]

43 Opinions on Political Dynasties Positive 9% DK/NA 38% Negative 46% No impact 7% There has recently been a trend in Indonesian politics of family members of politicians running for political office in elections. What do you think about this trend, do you think this is generally positive for local politics in Indonesia, generally negative for local politics, or does it have no impact? (n=1,890)

44 Opinions on Political Dynasties Top 5 Reasons: Why Negative, (n=869) Undemocratic, Bad political practice 30% Corruption, collusion and nepotism 26% Emphasis on family, individual interests rather than public 13% Bad governance and leadership 10% They could fight among themselves; social jealousy and chaos 5%

45 Opinions on Political Dynasties Top 5 reasons Why Positive, n=165 It is ok, they work for society; have capability and skills 16% It is easier to manage society, politics, bureaucracy 10% If people support them, it is fine; not against the rule 7% I have no opinion 19% Other 17%

46 Electoral Inclusion

47 High Level of Support for Women in Political Roles Support Oppose Don't Know Refuse Women serving as civil servants 88% 7% 5% 1% Women serving in the parliament (DPR/DPRD/DPD) 83% 10% 6% 1% Women working for election commissions 81% 12% 7% 1% Members of political party 81% 12% 6% 1% Women working for a candidate during a campaign 80% 12% 7% 1% Women serving as ministers 80% 14% 5% 1% Women running as candidates to the elections 79% 13% 6% 1% Woman serving as Regional Heads (Regents/Mayor/ Governor) 72% 22% 5% 1% Women heading a political party 69% 23% 6% 2% Women participating in protests 60% 33% 6% 1% Now let s talk about women s involvement in politics. For each action I will read to you, please tell me to what extent do you support or oppose such a role for women? (n=1,890)

48 Gender Quotas for Party Lists DK/NR 22% Strongly agree 5% Strongly disagree 1% Somewhat disagree 17% Somewhat agree 56% According to the election law, each political party is required to have 30% of the candidates on its list be women. To what extent do you agree with this? (n=1,890)

49 Gender Quotas for Party Lists By Gender 18% 19% 25% 14% DK/NA Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree 58% 54% Strongly agree 4% 6% Male Female According to the election law, each political party is required to have 30% of the candidates on its list be women. To what extent do you agree with this? (n=1,890)

50 Proportion of Women in DPR DK/NR 28% Too low 28% Too high 6% About right 38% In Indonesia, around 50% of the population are women. Currently, the proportion of DPR members who are women is approximately 18%. In your opinion, do you think that this current proportion of women in parliaments is too low, about right, or too low? (n=1,890)

51 Proportion of Women in DPR 23% 7% 44% 32% 5% 33% 26% 30% Male Female Too low a proportion of women Proportion of women about right Too high a proportion of women DK/NR In Indonesia, around 50% of the population are women. Currently, the proportion of DPR members who are women is approximately 18%. In your opinion, do you think that this current proportion of women in parliaments is too low, about right, or too low? (n=1,890)

52 Positive Qualities Seen in Women Candidates No corruption Intelligence Experience in politics Religious/ moral Family history Have leadership ability, skills and knowledge Close to people, represent people Personality Beauty/physical characteristic Disagree with women as candidate DK/NA 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 19% 26% 37% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Speaking of women candidates generally, what qualities of women candidates make you more likely to vote for them? (n=1,890)

53 Majority has Preference for Male Candidates over Female Candidates No Difference between male and female 32% DK/NA 2% Male Candidate 55% Female Candidate 11% If you have a choice between a woman candidate and man candidate with equal credentials, who would you likely support? (n=1,890)

54 Majority has Preference for Male Candidates over Female Candidates Vote Preference By Gender 2% 3% 28% 35% 5% 64% 16% 47% DK/NA No Difference between male and female Female Candidate Male Candidate Male Female If you have a choice between a woman candidate and man candidate with equal credentials, who would you likely support? (n=1,890)

55 Importance Attached to Electoral Participation of Persons with Disabilities DK/NR 5% Not Very Important 8% Very Important 20% Reasons cited for the importance of electoral participation of PWDs include their rights as citizens, to have valid elections, and PWDs influence in policy-making. Somewhat Important 67% Do you believe it is important for people with disabilities to participate as voters in Indonesia? (n=1,890)

56 Possible KPU Initiatives on Accessibility Make polling stations accessible for persons with disabilities. Have specific polling station officials who are responsible for providing assistance for persons with disabilities in polling stations. No 11% DK/NR 5% No 6% DK/NR 4% Yes 84% Yes 90% Do you believe that electoral authorities should undertake the following initiatives during elections? (n=1,890)

57 Little Support for Candidates with Disabilities If you have a choice between a candidate with a disability and candidate without a disability, both with equal credentials, who would you likely support? (n=1,890) Candidate without disability 74% It doesn't matter to me whether the candidate has a disability 17% DK/NA 6% Candidate with disability 3%

58 Public Opinion in Indonesia 2013 National Election Survey December 2013