The Political Determinants of FDI in Developing Countries. Heiner Schulz University of Pennsylvania
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1 The Political Determinants of FDI in Developing Countries Heiner Schulz University of Pennsylvania
2 Summary Research question: effect of political institutions on FDI flows Literature: evidence inconclusive Argument Need to distinguish between different types of FDI Need to focus on structural elements of political system Research design: analysis of sector-level FDI flows Result: support both parts of argument
3 Literature: two views View 1: MNCs attracted to authoritarian regimes (Huntington/Dominguez 1975, Evans 1979, Haggard 1990) Shield from popular demands Ability to enact efficiency-enhancing reforms View 2: Democracy better environment for FDI (Lipset 1960, North/Weingast 1989, Olson 1993) Security of property rights Political stability
4 Literature: empirical tests inconclusive Preference for authoritarian regimes Resnick 2001, Tuman/Emmert 2004 Preference for democratic regimes Rodrik 1996, Harms/Ursprung 2002, Jensen 2003 No clear relationship between regime type and FDI Oneal 1994, Li/Resnick 2003, Büthe/Milner 2004
5 Argument: part 1 Literature does not distinguish between different types of FDI Link between regime type and FDI operates on industry-level Three different types of FDI Resource-seeking Efficiency-seeking Market-seeking
6 Argument: part 2 Regime type fails to capture key political determinants of FDI Specific structural characteristics of political system driving MNC investment decisions Key factor affecting MNC location: political stability Policy stability Regime stability
7 Analytical Strategy Existing studies Disaggregate political institutions Regime type - Policy stability - Regime stability Disaggregate FDI flows Total FDI flows - Resource-seeking - Efficiency-seeking - Market-seeking Total FDI flows Regime type FDI flows by sector Regime type Total FDI flows Institutional features FDI flows by sector Institutional features
8 Dependent variable: data sources Data source WDI UNCTAD OECD BEA FDI source World World OECD U.S. FDI destination Total inflows: OECD Total inflows: Non-OECD Sector inflows: OECD Sector inflows: Non-OECD X X X X* X X X* X* X** X X* X** X* T N * Inflows from country A reported by country B approximated by outflows to B reported by A. ** Not in public domain. Data coverage more limited than for total inflows.
9 Dependent variable: FDI motive Resource-seeking FDI Primary sector Efficiency-seeking FDI Manufacturing sector Market-seeking FDI Service sector Note: manufacturing FDI combines efficiency-seeking and market-seeking motivations. The paper classifies manufacturing industries based on their primary motivation and estimates separate models for each group.
10 Independent variables: hypotheses Resource-seeking Efficiency-seeking Market-seeking Economic Natural resources + Labor cost - Education + Trade barriers - + Country size + Level of development + Political Regime type - Policy stability + + Regime stability Additional controls: capital account restrictions, inflation, infrastructure
11 Model specification Cross-sectional analysis average Robust S.E. Panel analysis Fixed effects Robust S.E. clustered at country level Instrumental variables
12 Results: cross-sectional analysis Economic variables Total Primary sector Manufacturing sector Service sector Natural resources Labor cost - Education + Trade barriers - - Country size Level of development + + +
13 Results: cross-sectional analysis Political variables Regime type Policy stability Regime stability Model 1 Included Not included Not included Total FDI flows + Primary sector - Manufacturing sector + Service sector + Model 2 Included Included Included Total FDI flows + + Primary sector Manufacturing sector + Service sector + +
14 Open issues Limited variation of political variables over time Missing data: sector-level FDI, labor cost
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