Political Reservation and Substantive Representation: Evidence from Indian Panchayats

Transcription

1 Political Reservation and Substantive Representation: Evidence from Indian Panchayats Esther Duflo (based on joint work with Lori Beaman, Raghabendra Chattopadhyay, Rohini Pande and Petia Topalova October / 22

2 Motivation India has roughly 10% of female politicians Over a hundred countries have some form of political affirmative action (including gender quotas required by law or other voluntary policies done by political parties) India s reservation bill seeks to reserve 33% of India s state and national legislature positions for women (181 out of 543 National legislators and 1370 out the 4109 State legislators will be women). In this talk I ll share some of the results from studying the Indian experience with quotas. 2 / 22

3 The Indian experience One third of village councils must have a female Pradhan to examine whether female representation influences public good provision The in effect random assignment of Pradhan positions to female reservation implies that difference in outcomes between reserved and non-reserved Gram Panchayats (GP) captures the policy impact of female representation Growing literature uses this method to evaluate impact of reservation 3 / 22

4 Questions Do quotas for women crowd out other disadvantaged minorities? Do quotas influence the policy voice afforded to women? Do women participate more? Are their preferred policies more likely to be implemented? Do quota change social and political attitudes. 4 / 22

5 Quotas and Selection Do different people get selected under quotas? 5 / 22

6 Table 1. Pradhan Selection and Behavior Pradhan is Muslim Sample Transcript Birbhum (1) (2) GP currently reserved for woman (0.054) (0.064) Number of observations Mean of unreserved (0.340) (0.149) Notes: 1 Block fixed effects are included. 6 / 22

7 Table 1. Pradhan Selection and Behavior Sample Spouse knew aware of how helps with responsibilitie s Panchayat worked Panchayat work Birbhum (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Spouse suggested running Before elections Pradhan was Now feel competent to discharge duties GP currently reserved for woman (0.048) (0.080) (0.077) (0.083) (0.075) Number of observations Mean of unreserved (0.013) (0.172) (0.171) -(0.120) (0.171) Notes: 1 Block fixed effects are included. 7 / 22

8 Quotas and Policy Why do leader preferences determine policy? Incomplete commitment/lack of accountability implies a leader is able to implement his/her preferred policies What determines a leader s preferred policies? Own preferences Preferences of villagers who lobby him/her. Possible that costs of lobbying vary by gender match between leader and citizens 8 / 22

9 Leaders as aggregators of citizen preferences During 2003 we recorded 197 GS meeting via an observer in attendance, and a tape recording of the proceedings Average duration of a GS meeting: 112 minutes and the number of words spoken per meeting was 3,749. Within each transcript we coded every distinct issue that was discussed and the public good or concern addressed (average of six issues). Do women leaders influence participation? No greater attendance, but women are more likely to speak 9 / 22

10 Table 2. Panchayat and Villager participation at meeting Number of Number of Do Fraction of issues with Fraction of Pradhan Pradhan men women women female villager Words Chaired Speaks at attending attending speak participation Spoken by GS least once All Birbhum Sample Panchayat during GS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) GP reserved for woman (21.219) (7.709) (0.064) (0.044) (0.076) (0.037) (0.063) (0.081) Mean of unreserved ( ) (57.127) (0.502) (0.332) (0.240) (0.334) (0.370) (0.378) Number of observations Notes: 1 District fixed effects are included with robust standard errors. 2 Column (8) excludes Karnataka due to missing data. 10 / 22

11 Female Leaders and Public Good Outcomes Short run effects: If men, in effect, control policy-making then quotas should leave outcomes unchanged or worsen them But women do have different preferences and are more likely to speak and get a positive response in reserved GPs. First survey (Chattopadhyay and Duflo) offered some support for the view that women choose different policies - but some concern that these results have tended to be locale specific Millenial survey that spans eleven states Long run data from Birbhum 11 / 22

12 Millenial Survey Evidence The survey undertook an independent assessment of key public services, using citizen feedback as well as direct evaluation of facilities. Five basic public services: Drinking water and sanitation, health, education and child care, road transport and the public distribution system. Household survey: Final users evaluation Independent assessment of available services: we use these data to compute a quality index and obtain data on quantity Village profile sheet We restrict the sample to states that had a Panchayat election between 1995 and 2000 For over 2/3 of sample villages we matched village to GP and identified reservation status 12 / 22

13 Millenial Survey: Main findings Reservation for women increases investment in drinking water infrastructure: significantly more public drinking water taps and hand-pumps when the GP is reserved for a woman, and weake evidence that the drinking water facilities are in better condition Overall, the average effect of reservation on the availability of public goods in a village is positive and significant. The average effect of the reservation on the quality of public goods is positive as well, but not significant We also examine price of provision and find less evidence of bribes in women GPs Yet, satisfaction is worse.. interpret this cross-sectional findings as reflecting perceptions 13 / 22

14 Table 4: Effect of Female Leadership on Public Goods Quality, Quantity, and Satisfaction Quantity Quality Satisfaction Norm. Reservation Dependent Variable Mean Reservation Mean Reservation Mean All Men Women (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) A. OVERALL Weighted Average (0.041) (0.011) (0.010) (0.010) (0.013) B. BY PUBLIC GOOD TYPE Water (33.462) (0.098) (0.189) (0.014) (0.297) (0.018) (0.022) (0.021) Education (0.241) (0.064) (0.242) (0.021) (0.198) (0.011) (0.011) (0.023) Transportation (1.017) (0.082) (0.292) (0.025) (0.309) (0.015) (0.017) (0.022) Fair Price Shops (0.419) (0.069) (0.289) (0.027) (0.189) (0.016) (0.016) (0.029) Public Health Facilities (0.479) (0.072) (0.352) (0.036) (0.366) (0.033) (0.039) (0.053) / 22

15 Table 5: Effect of Female Leadership on Corruption Effect of reservation No controls Individual Controls Dependent Variable Mean All Male Female All Male Female (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) A. OVERALL Weighted Average Bribes (0.010) (0.016) (0.016) (0.010) (0.016) (0.015) B. BY PUBLIC GOOD TYPE 1 if Paid Bribe for Getting Public Tap Fixed (0.306) (0.016) (0.030) (0.015) (0.016) (0.030) (0.015) if Paid Bribe for Ration Card (0.233) (0.012) (0.012) (0.027) (0.012) (0.012) (0.027) if Paid Bribe to Police (0.474) (0.048) (0.051) (0.133) (0.049) (0.053) (0.105) if Paid Bribe for Medical Services (0.382) (0.032) (0.037) (0.060) (0.033) (0.038) (0.062) 749 Notes: a Standard deviation and number of observations below the mean, and standard errors (corrected for clustering at the GP level) below the coefficients b The standard errors of the weighted averages of the coefficients are obtained by jointly estimating the coefficient in a SUR framework c Regressions in columns 1-4 control for state fixed effects and village class dummies d Regressions in columns 5-7 control for state fixed effects, village class dummies, household size, property, religion, caste, education, occupation, and respondent gender. 15 / 22

16 Long-term Data: Birbhum Village Survey conducted in 2005 in 495 villages in Birbhum Overall, compare reserved and non-reserved: more investment in water infrastructure, sanitation, and roads in reserved GPs. Moreover, there are three other results that are significant at least at the 10% level, all positive: we see more investment in school repair, health center repair, and irrigation facilities SC/ST reservation leads to some areas being reserved twice in a row: Women elected in the second cycle appear to do more across the board. Also, after reservation is over the effects are not undone As in the PAC survey we continue to see lower bribes 16 / 22

17 Political social attitudes First time female leaders suffer prejudice Are quotas making this worst or better? Survey: Implicit attitude tests, reaction to speech and vignettes Show significant improvement in attitude towards women (in the competence realm, particularly among men). 17 / 22

18 Table 6. Perception of Female Effectiveness as Leaders: Experimental Evidence (Speech and Vignettes) Male Female (1) (2) Panel A Female Pradhan (0.027) (0.031) Female Pradhan * Ever Reserved (0.037) (0.039) Test: Female Pradhan + Female Pradhan * Ever Reserved (0.024) (0.023) Panel B Female Pradhan * Only Reserved (0.047) (0.048) Female Pradhan * Reserved 1998 & (0.061) (0.060) Female Pradhan * Only Reserved (0.048) (0.046) Test: FP* 2003 = FP* (both 1998 and 2003) = FP* 1998 [p value] Never Reserved Sample: Mean Never Reserved Sample: Standard Deviation (1.453) (1.391) Notes: 1 The outcome variable is the average across all questions in speech and vignettes. There are 7 questions in the speech and 4 in the vignette. Responses to each question are first standardized. 2 Female Pradhan is an indicator which is 1 if the leader speaking was female or the Pradhan in the vignettes was female. All regressions include the controls defined in Table 4, and standard errors are clustered by GP. 18 / 22

19 Social attitude and aspiration We have asked adolescents and their parents What would you like to be? What would you like your child to be We find that two cycles of reservation significantly affect the probability that a girl wants to have a career, and wants to be Pradhan And this is also true of her parents. 19 / 22

20 20 / 22

21 Conclusions Quotas matter: they increase the representation of women and affect change Increase female participation in village meetings Alter nature of public good provision and price charged (not reported) Change beliefs: reflected in greater willingness to elect women in future rounds (without quotas) and increase teenager aspirations Important that policy discussions of quotas go beyond discussing selection. Equally, should not presume how nature of selection will influence policy role played by women 21 / 22