Provisional programme The future of cities, regions and communities Wednesday 7 Friday 9 February 2018 WP1594

Transcription

1 Provisional programme The future of cities, regions and communities Wednesday 7 Friday 9 February 2018 WP1594 This is the 11th annual meeting in Wilton Park s International Futures series. Taking a long term view, it will explore the potential futures for cities, regions and communities past Regions and cities play a growing role in the international scene, for example US cities and states committing to delivery of the Paris Accord. There is also a growing move towards city-level devolution, with cities as independent economic actors that outperform and support domestic economies. The factors that impact on the competitiveness and economic reach of cities and regions are diverse; such as the global nature of the financial services industry located in the city of London; tax devolution; social and living standards, and economic incentives as seen in special economic zones. As cities grow, in absolute terms and in global reach, the demographic, security and physical impact can be significant. Rural decline, greater inequality, conflict over access to natural resources and disruption to the provision of services such as healthcare and education can proliferate, as evidenced by the rural-urban migrants in China. The trajectory towards megacities is set to exacerbate these issues. The threats in technologically reliant cities from state and non-state cyber attacks, along with the enduring spectre of physical attacks, either through terrorist groups or large scale insurgencies, makes securing and protecting the cities of the future harder. The changing nature of power between state and sub-state, increased interconnectivity, populism, and political and racial polarisation in many countries can create challenges for communities, identity and cohesion. In the digital age we are seeing an increase in divisions in many developed countries that are amplified through social media; such as the US where events in Charlottesville were projected globally. Social media is also being used as an instrument of disruption by state and non-state actors; existing divisions can be deliberately played upon and magnified for political benefit. This high level meeting will convene local government practitioners, policy planners and opinion formers, horizon scanners/futurists and academics alongside industry, think tanks and other experts from a range of countries. Through a mixture of plenary and breakout sessions, the roundtable will inform policy planning, discuss implications of current trends and provide context for planning and decision making. In association with: SJH

2 In particular it will: Challenge senior level officials to consider alternative international mid and long term perspectives Provide insights into how different countries, organisations and actors plan for the future Test the possibility of reaching a common understanding of long term trends and their implications for policy formulation and practical application Support national and international policy planning institutions in their contribution to global dialogue in the context of the challenges to existing thinking Develop and deepen relationships with international partners, strengthening and consolidating the emerging networks of futurists Key themes: Cities and regions as independent global actors Megacities Tolerance, division, disenfranchisement, pluralism, and social media Exponential urbanisation, resource challenges and natural disasters CNI, cyber, and smart tech Conflict and influence in an urban environment Violent extremism and serious organised crime In association with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office Policy Unit and Economic Diplomacy Directorate and the Ministry of Defence. (Speakers invited and themes proposed * denotes to be confirmed) Wednesday 7 February Participants arrive 1600 Welcome and introduction Thomas Hoare Assistant Programme Director, Wilton Park Liane Saunders Strategy Director and Strategic Programme Coordinator, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London Empowered cities and regions in an increasingly illiberal world As ethnically diverse, economically and socially liberal, and outwardly facing cities become more independent global actors; what role will they play in a world where the liberal international order is increasing challenged? How might diplomacy at the sub-national level (cities, regions/us states) work in the future? Does engaging with cities and regions risk alienating states?

3 Tea/coffee Megacities Suzanne Fry Director, Strategic Futures Group, Office of the Director for National Intelligence, Washington DC Amy Hochadel Global Cities Lead, Future Cities Catapult, London Ben Hammersley Futurist, Hammersley Futures, Marina del Rey How can urban planning provide a framework for organic growth? How do cities deal with the demographic pressure and restrictions on education and public services? How can megacities be governed effectively, and how can the international community best support that? Nicholas Brooke Chairman, Hong Kong Harbourfront Commission, Central Tim Leunig Senior Policy Adviser to the Defra Secretary Of State, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), London Wang Kai Vice President, China Academy of Urban Planning and Design (CAUPD), Beijing 1930 Reception followed by dinner hosted by Sharmila Nebhrajani Chief Executive, Wilton Park Thursday 8 February Breakfast Briefing in the library for Session 6 facilitators CNI, cyber, and smart tech As automation and AI advance, cities are likely to become more heavily reliant upon digital or digitally-enabled infrastructure, and companies that supply and maintain them, meaning more CNI vulnerable to cyber-attack. How can we protect our cities against such vulnerabilities? Andrew Collinge Assistant Director Intelligence and Analysis, Greater London Authority(GLA), London Korinna Stephan Team Coordinator Innovation Centre for Mobility and Societal Change (InnoZ) GmbH, Berlin Mark Devereux Senior Principal, Promontory Financial Group, LLC, London Photograph followed by tea/coffee Violent extremism and serious organised crime How can state and municipal governments respond to the challenge of the expansion and proliferation of violent extremism in cities, including increasingly European cities, and

4 Lunch partially-governed, ungoverned and unstable spaces (e.g. unregulated shanty towns, favelas, cities held by rebel or terrorist movements)? What can be done to resolve the tension between rural decline and movement of the young into cities? As this provides more opportunity for violent extremist and criminal organisations to plan and conduct sophisticated activity that violates UK interests, how do we prevent, pursue, protect and prepare? Daniel Hooton Strong Cities Network Project Manager, ISD, London David Scharia Chief of Branch, United Nations Counter Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate, New York Mark Vlasic Senior Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Law, Georgetown University, Washington DC Conflict and influence in an urban environment Tea/coffee Accelerating urbanisation may lead to an increase in urban conflict. What does the future of urban conflict look like, and what are the implications for militaries and policy makers? How will civilian proximity be dealt with, what are the implications for humanitarian and reconstruction assistance, what kind of technological solutions are there for militaries? Alice Hills Professor of Conflict Studies, Durham University, Durham Oliver Lewis Deputy Director of Digital, Data and Technology, Cabinet Office, London Working groups: Exponential urbanisation, resource challenges and natural disasters Group 1 Resource challenges How important will resource pressures such as water, energy and food be? How do we plan for scarcity and shortages? Is it feasible for cities to be largely self-sufficient in this regard? What will the relationship with rural areas need to be? Bruce Stanley Adjunct Professor for International Relations, Richmond the American International University in London Ping Huang Senior Research Fellow, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing Group 2 Urban crisis assistance With humanitarian assistance and disaster relief currently geared largely towards the rural, what will this look like in increasingly urban environments? Gordon Pendleton Head of Urbanisation and Public Safety, Cordillera Applications Group, Denver Jaideep Gupte Fellow and Cities Cluster Joint-leader, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton; Challenge Leader, Cities and Sustainable Infrastructure Portfolio, Global Challenges Research Fund, Swindon Group 3 Climate change, renewable energy and green goods How can cities and states manage the risk of climate change trends, which suggest a

5 greater frequency of higher impact humanitarian disasters? Lolita Jackson Special Advisor, NYC Office of the Mayor, Climate Policy and Programs, New York Dustin Benton Policy Director, Green Alliance, London Working group feedback Plenary report back on the 3 topics discussed in the working groups given by the Chairs Briefing in the library for Session 9 facilitators Reception followed by dinner Friday 9 February Breakfast and checkout Tolerance, division, disenfranchisement, pluralism, and social media What are the major challenges for communities in the digital age? What roles will drivers such as political representation, disruptive modernisation, city/hinterland conflict, inequality, the risks of societal fracture, and diasporas play? Puruesh Chaudhary Founder and President, AGAHI, Islamabad Peter Apps Global affairs columnist, Thomson Reuters, London Working groups: CNI, cyber, and smart tech Tea/coffee As automation and AI advance, cities are likely to become more heavily reliant upon digital or digitally-enabled infrastructure, and companies that supply and maintain them, meaning more CNI vulnerable to cyber-attack. How can we protect our cities against such vulnerabilities? Group 1 Critical national infrastructure Cordell Schachter Chief Technology Officer, New York City Department of Transportation, New York Group 2 Cyber Beyza Unal Research Fellow, Chatham House, London Group 3 Smart tech Ben Hammersley Futurist, Hammersley Futures, Marina del Rey Evaluation survey Completion of online survey Working group feedback Plenary report back on the 3 topics discussed in the working groups given by the Chairs.

6 Conclusions 1300 Lunch 1400 Participants depart Liane Saunders Strategy Director and Strategic Programme Coordinator, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London This is a preview programme and as such may be subject to change. This is an invitation only conference. Enquiries about participation to: Sarah-Jane Holtam, Project Manager T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: Sarah-Jane.Holtam@wiltonpark.org.uk Enquiries about the programme to: Thomas Hoare, Assistant Programme Director T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: Thomas.Hoare@wiltonpark.org.uk