Political Science 817 Empirical Methods of Political Inquiry

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1 Political Science 817 Empirical Methods of Political Inquiry UW-Madison Fall 2017 Wednesdays 3:30-5:25pm 422 North Hall Contact Information Professor: Barry C. Burden Phone: Office: 101 A/B North Hall Office Hours: Mondays 2-4pm and by appointment The Course Political science, like all mature academic fields, advances by scholarly research. This course introduces graduate students to the issues that commonly arise in qualitative and quantitative empirical political science research designs and their execution. Because no single approach to a research question is ideal, we will learn about the trade-offs involved in selecting one design over another. As a researcher and a consumer of others research, you must be self-conscious about the strengths and weakness of each methodology. Requirements The readings are a combination of books, book chapters, and articles. Some are general sources intended to acquaint you with a set of issues; others are applications that exemplify a methodological approach. The two required books are Gerring s Social Science Methodology: A Unified Framework (2nd ed.) and King, Keohane, and Verba s Designing Social Inquiry (KKV), both available for purchase online and at the University Book Store. Other readings will be distributed electronically on the Learn@UW course website. Students are expected to do all of the required reading and come to class meetings ready to discuss the material. I will give advance notice when the readings are changed. Class meetings will mostly be in a seminar format interrupted by occasional mini lectures. You should expect to participate in the dissection of each week s required readings. There will be five short homework assignments scattered throughout the semester. These exercises will allow you to develop a specific skill, evaluate competing research designs, and see how theories work in practice. Each assignment will take time to execute, but should not run longer than 5 double-spaced pages. Please deliver these to me in hard copy. A indicates when the assignment will be distributed. It will generally be due 7-10 days later and should be uploaded to the appropriate dropbox folder. 1

2 For the final paper each student will develop an original research design. The paper should efficiently synthesize the relevant literature and outline the hypotheses, arguments, or theory to be examined. In more detail, it should propose an empirical research project, a sort of blueprint for a study that depends only on resources that are typically available to a graduate student. I hope that the research design will eventually lead to a paper in another seminar, a conference presentation, or part of a dissertation. An abstract of at least one page is due in the dropbox by Monday, November 20. Final papers are due in the dropbox by Thursday, December 21. Most papers will be about 20 pages long and should not be much longer unless you are combining the paper with another course or actually undertaking the research in the paper. Please consult with me if want to be considered for these options. Grades Final grades are based on a weighted average of letter grades from three sources: contributions to class participation (25%), homework assignments (35%), and the final paper (50%). Please talk with me anytime during the semester if you have questions about the material, requirements, or your performance. Introduction & Inference: The General and the Particular (September 6 and 13) Gerring [Chapters 1-3] KKV [Chapters 1 & 2] Friedman, Milton The Methodology of Positive Economics. In Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Geertz, Clifford The Interpretation of Cultures. New York: Basic Books. [Chapter 1] Abbott, Andrew Methods of Discovery: Heuristics for the Social Sciences. New York: W.W. Norton. [Chapter 4] Allwood, Carl Martin The Distinction between Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods is Problematic. Quality & Quantity 46: Brady, Henry E., and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Clarke, Kevin A., and David M. Primo A Model Discipline: Political Science and the Logic of Representations. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. Fenno, Richard F., Jr Observation, Context, and Sequence in the Study of Politics. American Political Science Review 80:3-15. Mahoney, James, and Gary Goertz A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research. Political Analysis 14: Oliver, Jack E The Art of Discovery. New York: Columbia University Press. [Chapter 2] Sil, Rudra The Division of Labor in Social Science Research: Unified Methodology or Organic Solidarity? Polity 32:

3 Measurement I: Concept Operationalization (September 20) Gerring [Chapter 5] Abdelal, Rawi, Yoshiko M. Herrera, Alastair Iain Johnston, and Rose McDermott Identity as a Variable. Perspectives on Politics 4: Fisman, Ray, and Edward Miguel Cultures of Corruption: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Tickets. Journal of Political Economy 115: Collier, David, and James E. Mahone, Jr Conceptual Stretching Revisited: Adapting Categories in Comparative Analysis. American Political Science Review 87: «Assignment 1: Measuring Educational Quality Measurement II: Reliability and Validity (September 27) Gerring [p & Chapter 7] KKV [p ] Adcock, Robert, and David Collier Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research. American Political Science Review 95: Coppedge, Michael, et al Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: A New Approach. Perspectives on Politics 9: Althaus, Scott L., et al Assumed Transmission in Political Science: A Call for Bringing Description Back In. Journal of Politics 73: Grimmer, Justin, and Brandon M. Stewart Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts. Political Analysis 21: Munck, Gerardo L., and Jay Verkuilen Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices. Comparative Political Studies 35:5-34. Theories, Hypotheses, and Inference (October 4) Gerring [Chapters 6 & 8] Fearon, James D Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World Politics 43: Popper, Sir Karl Science: Conjectures and Refutations. Both in Introductory Readings in the Philosophy of Science, 3rd ed., ed. E.D. Klemke, Robert Hollinger, and David Wÿss Rudge. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. Stinchcombe, Arthur L Constructing Social Theories. New York: Harcourt, Brace, & World. [p ] 3

4 Clarke, Kevin A., and David M. Primo Modernizing Political Science: A Model-Based Approach. Perspectives on Politics 5: Esaray, Justin, and Nathan Danneman A Quantitative Method for Substantive Robustness Assessment. Political Science Research and Methods 3: Kitcher, Philip Believing Where We Cannot Prove. In Introductory Readings in the Philosophy of Science, ed. 3rd ed. E.D. Klemke, Robert Hollinger, and David Wÿss Rudge. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. Nuzzo, Regina Scientific Method: Statistical Errors. Nature 506: «Assignment 2: Durkheim s Hypotheses Collecting Data (October 11) Gerring [p & 86-95] KKV [Chapter 6] Hurley, Dan Divorce Rate: It s Not as High as You Think. New York Times. April 19. Lustick, Ian S History, Historiography, and Political Science: Multiple Historical Records and the Problem of Selection Bias. American Political Science Review 90: McDonald, Michael P., and Samuel Popkin The Myth of the Vanishing Voter. American Political Science Review 95: Robinson, W.S Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15: Kritzer, Herbert M The Data Puzzle: The Nature of Interpretation in Quantitative Research. American Journal of Political Science 40:1-32. Soroka, Stuart N., Christopher Wlezien, and Iain McLean Public Expenditure in the UK: How Measures Matter. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 168: Wooley, John T Using Media-Based Data in Studies of Politics. American Journal of Political Science 44: «Assignment 3: Fact Finding Specification and Spuriousness (October 18) KKV [p & ] Caiazza, Amy Does Women s Representation in Elected Office Lead to Women- Friendly Policy? Institute for Women s Policy Research Publication I910. < Leamer, Edward E Let s Take the Con Out of Econometrics. American Economic Review 73: Licklider, Roy The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, American Political Science Review 89:

5 Clarke, Kevin A The Phantom Menace: Omitted Variable Bias in Econometric Research. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22: No Class October 25 Causation, Necessity, and Sufficiency in Small-N Studies (November 1) Gerring [Chapters 11 & 12] KKV [Chapter 3] Goertz, Gary, and Harvey Starr Introduction: Necessary Condition Logics, Research Design, and Theory. In Necessary Conditions, ed. Gary Goertz and Harvey Starr. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Hill, Sir Austin Bradford The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation? < Talbot, Margaret. The Placebo Prescription. The New York Times Magazine. January 9, Gerring, John Review Article: The Mechanistic Worldview: Thinking inside the Box. British Journal of Political Science 38: Imai, Kosuke, Luke Keele, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies. American Political Science Review 105: Keele, Luke, The Statistics of Causal Inference: A View from Political Methodology. Political Analysis 23: Lab and Field Experiments (November 8) Gerring [Chapter 9 & p ] KKV [p ] Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green Do Phone Calls Increase Voter Turnout? A Field Experiment. Public Opinion Quarterly 65: McDermott, Rose Experimental Methods in Political Science. Annual Review of Political Science 5: Smith, Gordon C.S., and Jill P. Pell Parachute Use to Prevent Death and Major Trauma Related to Gravitational Challenge: Systematic Review of Randomised Controlled Trials. BMJ 327: Druckman, James N., Donald P. Green, James H. Kuklinski, and Arthur Lupia The Growth and Development of Experimental Research in Political Science. American Political Science Review 100:

6 Gaines, Brian J., and James H. Kuklinski Experimental Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Related to Self-Selection. American Journal of Political Science 55: Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. New York, NY: W.W. Norton. Hainmueller, Jens, Daniel J. Hopkins, and Teppei Yamamoto Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments. Political Analysis 22:1-30. Lehrer, Jonah The Truth Wears Off. The New Yorker. December 13. Monogan, James E., III Research Preregistration in Political Science: The Case, Counterarguments, and a Response to Critiques. PS: Political Science & Politics 48: Mutz, Diana Population-Based Survey Experiments. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. «Assignment 4: Designing an Experiment Quasi-Experiments (November 15) Gerring [p ] DellaVigna, Stefano, and Ethan Kaplan The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting. Quarterly Journal of Economics 122: Campbell, Donald T., and H. Laurence Ross The Connecticut Crackdown on Speeding: Time Series Data in Quasi-Experimental Analysis. Law & Society Review 3: Dunning, Thad Improving Causal Inference: Strengths and Limitations of Natural Experiments. Political Research Quarterly 61: Kern, Holger Lutz and Jens Hainmueller Opium for the Masses: How Foreign Media Can Stabilize Authoritarian Regimes. Political Analysis 17: Achen, Christopher R The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Angrist, Joshua, and Alan B. Krueger Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15: Diamond, Jared, and James A. Robinson, ed Natural Experiments in History. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Druckman, James N., Donald P. Green, James H. Kuklinski, and Arthur Lupia, eds Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Dunning, Thad. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. New York, NY: W.W. Norton. Sovey, Allison J., and Donald P. Green Instrumental Variables Estimation in Political Science: A Readers Guide. American Journal of Political Science 55:

7 Case Selection, Case Methods, Sampling, and Generalization (November 22) KKV [Chapter 4] Ebbinghaus, Bernhard When Less is More: Selection Problems in Large- N and Small- N Cross-National Comparisons. International Sociology 20: Geddes, Barbara How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics. Political Analysis 2: Gisselquist, Rachel M Paired Comparison and Theory Development: Considerations for Case Selection. PS: Political Science & Politics 47: Altonji, Joseph G., Todd E. Elder, and Christopher R. Taber Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools. Journal of Political Economy 113:151- Beach, Derek, and Rasmus Brun Pederson Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Bennett, Andrew, and Colin Elman Qualitative Research: Recent Developments in Case Study Methods. Annual Review of Political Science 9: Berinsky, Adam J., Gregory A. Huber, and Gabriel S. Lenz Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research: Amazon.com s Mechanical Turk. Political Analysis 20: Cohen, Jacob The Earth is Round (p <.05). American Psychologist 49: George, Alexander L., and Andrew Bennett Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Gerring, John Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. New York: Cambridge University Press. Slantchev, Branislav, Anna Alexandrova, and Erik Gartzke Probabilistic Causality, Selection Bias, and the Logic of the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 99: «Assignment 5: Selecting a Sample Qualitative Interviews and Participant Observation (November 29) Fenno, Richard F. Jr Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. Appendix: Notes on Method: Participation Observation. [p ] Morris, Zoë Slote The Truth about Interviewing Elites. Politics 3: Rivera, Sharon Werning, Polina M. Kozyreva, and Eduard G. Sarovskii Interviewing Political Elites: Lessons from Russia. PS: Political Science & Politics. (Also see other articles in the symposium in the same issue.) Rubin, Herbert J., and Irene S. Rubin Qualitative Interviewing: The Art of Hearing Data. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publication. [Chapter 2] 7

8 Scott, James C Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant Resistance. Yale University Press. [Chapters 1 & 2] Feldman, Martha S., Jeannine Bell, and Michele Tracy Berger, eds Gaining Access: A Practical and Theoretical Guide for Qualitative Researchers. Walnut Creek, CA: Altamira Press. Goffman, Alice On the Run: Fugitive Life in an American City. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. [Appendix] Mosley, Layna, ed Interview Research in Political Science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Schatz, Edward, ed Political Ethnography: What Immersion Contributes to the Study of Power. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Soss, Joe Talking Our Way to Meaningful Explanations: A Practice-Centered Approach to In-Depth Interviews for Interpretive Research. In Dvora Yanow and Peregrine Schwartz-Shea, ed. Interpretation and Method: Empirical Research Methods and the Interpretive Turn. New York, NY: M.E. Sharpe. Survey Research (December 6) Davis, Darren W., and Brian D. Silver Stereotype Threat and Race of Interviewer Effects in a Survey on Political Knowledge. American Journal of Political Science 47: Gonzalez-Ocanatos, Ezequiel, et al Vote Buying and Social Desirability Bias: Experimental Evidence from Nicaragua. American Journal of Political Science 56: Mondak, Jeffrey J., and Mary R. Anderson The Knowledge Gap: A Reexamination of Gender-Based Differences in Political Knowledge. Journal of Politics 66: Schaeffer, Nora Cate, and Stanley Presser The Science of Asking Questions. Annual Review of Sociology 29: Prior, Markus, and Arthur Lupia Money, Time, and Political Knowledge: Distinguishing Quick Recall and Political Learning Skills. American Journal of Political Science 52: Rosenfeld, Bryn, Kosuke Imai, and Jacob N. Shaprio An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions. American Journal of Political Science 60: Zaller, John R., and Stanley Feldman A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences. American Journal of Political Science 36:

9 Communicating Research (December 13) Data Access and Research Transparenty (DART) web site: Gerber, Alan, and Neil Malhotra Do Statistical Reporting Standards Affect What Is Published? Publication Bias in Two Leading Political Science Journals. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3: Kastellec, Jonathan P., and Eduardo Leoni Using Graphs Instead of Tables in Political Science. Perspectives on Politics 5: Lupia, Arthur Evaluating Political Science Research: Information for Buyers and Sellers. PS: Political Science & Politics 33:7-13. [and see other essays in the symposium for further reading] Maisel, L. Sandy, and Walter J. Stone The Politics of Government-Funded Research: Notes from the Experience of the Candidate Emergence Study. PS: Political Science & Politics 31: Sigelman, Lee Publication Bias Reconsidered. Political Analysis 8: King, Gary and other authors Essays on replication. PS: Political Science & Politics 28: King, Gary, Michael Tomz and Jason Wittenberg Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44: Lehrer, David, Janin Leschke, Stefan Lhachimi, Ana Vasiliu, and Brigitte Weiffen Negative Results in Social Science. European Political Science 6: Tufte, Edward [Reflection on his 1975 APSR article.] American Political Science Review 100: Wicherts, Jelte M., et al The Poor Availability of Psychological Research Data for Reanalysis. American Psychologist 61: