POLI 701: Theories of Political Inquiry

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1 POLI 701: Theories of Political Inquiry Fall 2016 Charles J. Finocchiaro Thursdays 11:40am 2:25pm 319 Gambrell Hall (office) 404 Gambrell Hall (phone) University of South Carolina Eliminate all other factors, and the one which remains must be the truth. Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of Four Course Description: The primary aim of this course is to inculcate first year doctoral students with the process of conducting rigorous research as practiced by modern political scientists. Learning this craft involves mastering a number of critical components including (a) identifying and clearly stating a research question; (b) developing a theory and hypotheses; (c) designing a study that deals appropriately with issues of validity, selection, confounding, and a myriad of other inferential challenges; and (d) cogently presenting the results. The researcher s goal is to speak credibly about causal relationships and behavioral patterns in the political world. Thus, limitations in any of the preceding areas can significantly undermine the traction of one s work. Learning Outcomes: This course is the gateway to further theoretical and methodological training. As such, the goal is to prepare students for advanced work in both political methodology and their substantive areas of research. Students who successfully complete the course will demonstrate the ability to: identify and describe the major approaches to research design employed in political science as well as the underlying motivations for each compare, critique, and debate various strategies for conducting research both in general and in the case of specific applications evaluate existing research on a question of interest and propose a research design for a project that would contribute to knowledge on that topic. Prerequisites: While there are no formal prerequisites for this course, it is tailored for (and required of all) Ph.D. students in political science. It is best taken in the first semester of graduate studies. I do not recommend that masters-level students take this course, although I would be happy to discuss it as an option under certain circumstances. Credit Hours: 3 Office Hours: Thursdays from 3:00 4:00pm and by appointment. Course Materials: Required readings for the course will be drawn primarily from book excerpts and journal articles, all of which are available online via the USC Libraries electronic journal services or posted on Blackboard. Additionally, each student is expected to purchase a copy of the required books listed below. While using a small number of complete books will keep costs down, it is not a substitute for having all required (and much of the recommended) material prepared and 1

2 in your possession for each scheduled class session. Required: Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sydney Verba Designing Social Inquiry. Princeton University Press. ISBN-13: William R. Shadish, Thomas D. Cook, and Donald T. Campbell Experimental and Quasi- Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Wadsworth. ISBN-13: Henry E. Brady and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, 2nd ed. Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN-13: Expectations and Evaluation Because this is a graduate seminar and not a lecture-oriented course, the success of the class will depend heavily on the full participation of each student. Broadly speaking, students will be expected to do all the required reading prior to each scheduled meeting and to be familiar with at least some of the recommended supplemental reading. Additionally, one or more students may be assigned the task of leading discussion for particular weeks or topics, and in that case are strongly encouraged to read well beyond the requirements. You are now moving past the consumer stage of your academic career and into the phase in which your interaction with what you read will be more of a dialogue. In the very near future, you will also begin to assume the role of a producer of knowledge. Consequently you will be reading and writing very differently (and much, much more!) than you probably have in the past. I cannot stress enough how important it will be to stay on schedule, constructively provide and receive criticism, take intellectual risks, and persevere. What that means for this class is that you should not hesitate to engage deeply in discussion, start thinking right now about your research design project, and begin reading widely and beyond the syllabus. Grades for the course will be comprised of the following three components: 1. Class and professional participation (35%) As described above, it is imperative that every student attend each class session prepared to be an active participant in discussion. Both the quantity and the quality of comments are important. Let me emphasize that you will not earn higher than a B+ in this course unless you are a well-prepared, regular, and thoughtful participant in class discussion. This also means that you should be prepared to lead discussion on any article or topic when called upon to do so. Additionally, I expect students to engage beyond the classroom. This means, at minimum, regular attendance at job talks and Political Science Research Workshop (PSRW) presentations. You will learn best by observing and participating in these kinds of forums. If teaching or other commitments prohibit you from attending, please let me know. 2. Short(er) writing assignments (30%) Students will be required to complete at least two shorter writing assignments over the course of the semester. The final number will depend in part on course enrollment as well as on the flow of the course. For the first paper (3-5 pages), due in Week 3 of the class, students will 2

3 read and summarize recent research in their area of interest. For the second paper, due in Week 13, students will identify one recently published work and perform a review of it, briefly describing the main point of the article and its approach to answering the analytical question, critiquing the theory and research design, and providing comments for improvement and/or future research. More details on these assignments will be provided separately. 3. Research design paper (35%) This assignment involves producing a project that spans identification of a research question, review of the relevant literature, development of a theory and hypotheses aimed at addressing the question, and conceptualizing a research design that will shed light on the empirical traction of the theoretical account. For most students, this paper will be paired with an empirical analysis for POLI 502. Research design papers are due by 5pm on Friday, December 9. Two final class sessions (Dec. 1 and Dec. 2) will be devoted to presentations of the research designs, followed by interactive Q&A (much like what you will observe during departmental colloquia this semester). In order to keep everyone on track, a brief write-up of the research question accompanied by some relevant citations to existing work on the topic is due no later than Thursday, September 29. An annotated bibliography and brief sketch of the theoretical and empirical design aspects of the paper is due no later than Thursday, October 27. A complete draft of the paper is due no later than noon on Tuesday, November 29, at which time the drafts will be circulated among the class. Further details on the research design paper (and related assignments) will be provided separately. Formatting: All papers should be prepared professionally. This means using standard fonts and formatting (such as double spacing), as well as disciplinary conventions for citations and references. It would be a good idea to begin familiarizing yourself now with the APSA Style Manual, which covers the format required for submissions to many (albeit not all) political science journals. I have posted a copy of it on Blackboard. Additionally, at least one of the writing assignments must be produced in L A TEX. It would be a great idea to start building a master reference file using BibTEX for every paper you write this semester. An accompanying APSR style file is available to begin producing references that follow the APSA style guide. A Note on Grading: A minimum grade of a C in this course is required in order for it to count toward fulfilling the Ph.D. degree requirements. However, a grade less than a B is typically considered unsatisfactory, and in fact a student receiving three grades below a B is at risk of removal from the Ph.D. program. All work will be graded on a letter scale, with an A representing exceptional work, a B+ good performance, and a B minimally satisfactory output. Accessibility: Any student with a documented disability should contact the Office of Student Disability Services at and then follow up with me to make arrangements for appropriate accommodations. Incompletes and Academic Integrity: All work must be turned in no later than the start of class on the day when it is due. I do not give incompletes save for truly exceptional circumstances of a serious and unforeseen nature. In accordance with the USC Honor Code and professional standards, I expect that all work will be your own and take very seriously any form of academic misrepresentation, including improper or omitted citation of sources and misappropriation of another s work. Students are also expected to conduct themselves in a professional and civil manner. 3

4 Course Schedule ( = course reserve; = Blackboard) Week 1 (Aug. 18): Introduction and Some Basics Keohane, Robert O Political Science as a Vocation. PS: Political Science & Politics 42: Gerring, John Social Science Methodology: A Unified Framework, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 2, Beginnings. Trochim, William M.K., and James P. Donnelly The Research Methods Knowledge Base, 3rd ed. Mason, OH: Atomic Dog Publishers. Ch. 1, Foundations. Schwartz, Martin A The Importance of Stupidity in Scientific Research. Journal of Cell Science 121: Application: King, Gary, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E. Roberts Reverse-Engineering Censorship in China: Randomized Experimentation and Participant Observation. Science 345: Week 2 (Aug. 25): Politics and The Scientific Method Chalmers, A. F What Is This Thing Called Science?, 4th ed. University of Queensland Press. King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane, and Sydney Verba Designing Social Inquiry. Princeton: Princeton University Press. [KKV] Ch. 1, The Science in Social Science. Brady, Henry E., and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Preface, Ch. 1. Box, George E.P Science and Statistics. Journal of the American Statistical Association 71: Moore, Will H Observing the Political World: Ontology, Truth, and Science. Working paper, Florida State University. Lake, David A Why isms Are Evil: Theory, Epistemology, and Academic Sects as Impediments to Understanding and Progress. International Studies Quarterly 55: Almond, Gabriel Political Science: The History of the Discipline. In Robert Goodin and Hans-Dieter Klingemann, eds. A New Handbook of Political Science. New York: Oxford University 4

5 Press, pg Popper, Karl. [1934] The Logic of Scientific Discovery. New York: Harper & Row. Kuhn, Thomas S. [1962] The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lakatos, Imre The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Week 3 (Aug. 31, 11am-2pm): Models, Theory, and Hypothesis Testing Lave, Charles A., and James G. March. [1975] An Introduction to Models in the Social Sciences. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Ch Cameron, Charles M Veto Bargaining: Presidents and the Politics of Negative Power. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 3. Morton, Rebecca B Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch Rogowski, Ronald The Role of Theory and Anomaly in Social-Scientific Inference. American Political Science Review 89: Applications (Choose One): Cox, Gary W., and Mathew D. McCubbins Setting the Agenda: Responsible Party Government in the U.S. House of Representatives. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Ch * Brief paper on recent published work in your area of interest due 8/31 Clarke, Kevin A., and David M. Primo A Model Discipline: Political Science and the Logic of Representations. New York: Oxford University Press. Green, Donald P., and Alan S. Gerber Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory: A Critique of Applications in Political Science. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Cox, Gary W The Empirical Content of Rational Choice Theory: A Reply to Green and Shapiro. Journal of Theoretical Politics 11:

6 Morton, Rebecca B Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 3. Gill, Jeff The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing. Political Research Quarterly 52: Geddes, Barbara Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Week 4 (Sept. 8): Causality and Inference KKV: Ch. 2-3 Shadish, William R., Thomas D. Cook, and Donald T. Campbell Experimental and Quasi- Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. [SCC] Ch. 1, Experiments and Generalized Causal Inference. Ho, Daniel E., and Donald B. Rubin Credible Causal Inference for Empirical Legal Studies. Annual Review of Law and Social Science 7: Morgan, Stephen L., and Christopher Winship Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research. Ch. 1. Brady, Henry E., and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Preface, Ch. 2. Applications: Messerli, Franz H Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine 367: Ellenberg, Jordan How Can Rich People Vote Republican and Rich States Vote for Democrats? Slate. June 11. Available at: [Consider reading the linked QJPS article by Gelman et al. as well] Gerring, John Causation: A Unified Framework for the Social Sciences. Journal of Theoretical Politics 17: Goertz, Gary, and Harvey Starr, eds Necessary Conditions: Theory, Methodology, and Applications. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Holland, Paul W Statistics and Causal Inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81:

7 Rubin, Donald B Comment: Which Ifs Have Causal Answers. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81: Week 5 (Sept. 15): Observation, Identification, Selection, and Endogeneity KKV: Ch. 4-5 (except pg ) Geddes, Barbara How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics. Political Analysis 2: Samii, Cyrus Causal Empiricism in Quantitative Research. Journal of Politics 78: Slantchev, Branislav L., Anna Alexandrova, and Erik Gartzke Probabilistic Causality, Selection Bias, and the Logic of the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 99: Geertz, Clifford Thick Description. In Clifford Geertz, ed. The Interpretation of Cultures. New York: Basic Books. Rhodes, William Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: What Does a Regression Estimate? Evaluation Review 34: Sekhon, Jasjeet S Opiates for the Matches: Matching Methods for Causal Inference. Annual Review of Political Science 12: Von Stein, Jana Do Treaties Constrain or Screen? Selection Bias and Treaty Compliance. American Political Science Review 99: Carrubba, Clifford J., Matthew Gabel, Lacey Murrah, Ryan Clough, Elizabeth Montgomery, and Rebecca Schambach Off the Record: Unrecorded Legislative Votes, Selection Bias and Roll-Call Vote Analysis. British Journal of Political Science 36: Week 6 (Sept. 22): Validity SCC: Ch. 2, 3, 11, 14 Berkowitz, Leonard, and Edward Donnerstein External Validity is More Than Skin Deep: Some Answers to Criticisms of Laboratory Experiments. American Psychologist 37: Applications: Barabas, Jason, and Jennifer Jerit Are Survey Experiments Externally Valid? American 7

8 Political Science Review 104: Berinsky, Adam J., Gregory A. Huber, and Gabriel S. Lenz Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research: Amazon.com s Mechanical Turk. Political Analysis 20: Week 7 (Sept. 29): Conceptualization and Measurement KKV: Ch. 5 (pg only) Kaplan, Abraham The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers. Ch. 2, Concepts. Jackman, Simon Measurement. In Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press, pg Adcock, Robert, and David Collier Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research. American Political Science Review 95: Applications: McDonald, Michael P., and Samuel L. Popkin The Myth of the Vanishing Voter. American Political Science Review 95: Munck, Gerardo L., and Jay Verkuilen Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices. Comparative Political Studies 35: Laver, Michael, Kenneth Benoit, and John Garry Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using Words as Data. American Political Science Review 97: King, Gary, Christopher J. L. Murray, Joshua A. Salomon, and Ajay Tandon Enhancing the Validity and Cross-Cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research. American Political Science Review 98: * Research question due 9/29 Goertz, Gary Social Science Concepts: A User s Guide. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Jacoby, William G Levels of Measurement and Political Research: An Optimistic View. American Journal of Political Science 43:

9 Week 8 (Oct. 6): Randomization and Experimental Design SCC: Ch. 1 [Review], 8 Green, Donald P., and Alan S. Gerber Reclaiming the Experimental Tradition in Political Science. In Ira Katznelson and Helen Milner, eds. Political Science: State of the Discipline. New York: W.W. Norton, pg Druckman, James N., Donald P. Green, James H. Kuklinski, and Arthur Lupia The Growth and Development of Experimental Research in Political Science. American Political Science Review 100: Applications: Habyarimana, James, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner, and Jeremy M. Weinstein Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision? American Political Science Review 101: Malesky, Edmund, Paul Schuler, and Anh Tran The Adverse Effects of Sunshine: A Field Experiment on Legislative Transparency in an Authoritarian Assembly. American Political Science Review 106: Bond, Robert M., Christopher J. Fariss, Jason J. Jones, Adam D. I. Kramer, Cameron Marlow, Jaime E. Settle, and James H. Fowler A 61-Million-Person Experiment in Social Influence and Political Mobilization. Nature 489: Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment. American Political Science Review 94: Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra, and Ester Duflo Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India. Econometrica 72: Horiuchi, Yusaku, Kosuke Imai, and Naoko Taniguchi Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment. American Journal of Political Science 51: Sinclair, Betsy, Margaret McConnell, and Donald P. Green Detecting Spillover Effects: Design and Analysis of Multilevel Experiments. American Journal of Political Science 56: Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. New York: W.W. Norton. Oct. 13: No Class (Fall Break) 9

10 Week 9 (Oct. 20): Quasi-Experimental Design and Natural Experiments SCC: Ch. 4-5 Dunning, Thad Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 1, Introduction: Why Natural Experiments? Applications: Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review 91: Healy, Andrew J., Neil Malhotra, and Cecilia Hyunjung Mo Irrelevant Events Affect Voters Evaluations of Government Performance. PNAS 107(29): Davenport, Tiffany C Policy-Induced Risk and Responsive Participation: The Effect of a Son s Conscription Risk on the Voting Behavior of His Parents. American Journal of Political Science 59: Glynn, Adam N., and Maya Sen Identifying Judicial Empathy: Does Having Daughters Cause Judges to Rule for Women s Issues? American Journal of Political Science 59: Sekhon, Jasjeet S., and Rocio Titiunik When Natural Experiments Are Neither Natural nor Experiments. American Political Science Review 106: Berinsky, Adam J., and Sara Chatfield An Empirical Justification for the Use of Draft Lottery Numbers as a Random Treatment in Political Science Research. Political Analysis 23: Dunning, Thad Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. New York: Cambridge University Press. Week 10 (Oct. 27): Approaches to Observational Data: Design SCC: Ch. 6-7 Brady, Henry E., and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Ch. 13. Morgan, Stephen L., and Christopher Winship Counterfactuals and Casual Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press. Ch. 1 (excerpt), Causal Analysis and Observational Social Science. [Review] 10

11 Samii, Cyrus Causal Empiricism in Quantitative Research. Journal of Politics 78: [Review] Keele, Luke The Statistics of Causal Inference: A View from Political Methodology. Political Analysis 23: * Annotated bibliography and theoretical/empirical sketch due 10/27 Brady, Henry E., and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Ch. 14. Week 11 (Nov. 3): Approaches to Observational Data: Applications Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan F. Vargas Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia. Review of Economic Studies 80: [Instrumental variables] Hainmueller, Jens, and Dominik Hangartner. N.D. Does Direct Democracy Hurt Immigrant Minorities? Evidence from Naturalization Decisions in Switzerland. American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming. [Panel data with discontinuity] Caughey, Devin, and Jasjeet S. Sekhon Elections and the Regression Discontinuity Design: Lessons from Close U.S. House Races, Political Analysis 19: Scheve, Kenneth, and David Stasavage Democracy, War, and Wealth: Lessons from Two Centuries of Inheritance Taxation. American Political Science Review 106: [Differencein-differences] Boyd, Christina L., Lee Epstein, and Andrew D. Martin Untangling the Causal Effects of Sex on Judging. American Journal of Political Science 54: [Matching] Abadie, Alberto, Alexis Diamond, and Jens Hainmueller Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California s Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105: Week 12 (Nov. 10): Qualitative Methods and Small-N Designs KKV: Ch. 6 Brady, Henry E., and David Collier, eds Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Ch Lijphart, Arend Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method. American Political Science Review 65:

12 Fearon, James D Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World Politics 43: Gerring, John What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good for? American Political Science Review 98: Benoit, Kenneth R How Qualitative Research Really Counts. Qualitative Methods Newsletter 3: Mahoney, James, and Gary Goertz A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research. Political Analysis 14: Applications: Fenno, Richard F., Jr U.S. House Members in Their Constituencies: An Exploration. American Political Science Review 71: Ross, Michael L How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases. International Organization 58: Week 13 (Nov. 17): Best Practices & Parting Thoughts Stimson, James A. N.D. Professional Writing in Political Science: A Highly Opinionated Essay. Working paper, University of North Carolina. Zigerell, L. J Rookie Mistakes: Preemptive Comments on Graduate Student Empirical Research Manuscripts. PS: Political Science & Politics 46: King, Gary Replication, Replication. PS: Political Science & Politics 28: Leeper, Thomas J Archiving Reproducible Research with R and Dataverse. The R Journal 6: Available at: Jacoby, William G AJPS Replication and Verification Policy. Available at: https: //ajps.org/ajps-replication-policy/. Also read Guidelines for Preparing Replication Files. Schrodt, Philip A Seven Deadly Sins of Contemporary Quantitative Political Analysis. Journal of Peace Research 51: Franco, Annie, Neil Malhotra, and Gabor Simonovits Publication Bias in the Social Sciences: Unlocking the File Drawer. Science 345: Monogan, James E., III Research Preregistration in Political Science: The Case, Counterarguments, and a Response to Critiques. PS: Political Science & Politics 48:

13 Nyhan, Brendan A Checklist Manifesto for Peer Review. The Political Methodologist 23: 4-6. Lebo, Matthew J Managing Your Research Pipeline. PS: Political Science & Politics 49: * Article review due 11/17 SCC: Ch Gerber, Alan S., and Neil Malhotra Publication Bias in Empirical Sociological Research: Do Arbitrary Significance Levels Distort Published Results? Sociological Methods & Research 37: Khberger, Anton, Astrid Fritz, and Thomas Scherndl Publication Bias in Psychology: A Diagnosis Based on the Correlation between Effect Size and Sample Size. PLoS ONE 9(9): e Nov. 24: No Class (Thanksgiving Recess) * Draft of research design due by noon on Tuesday, 11/29 Week 14 (Dec. 1; Dec. 2, 11am-3pm): Presentation of Research Designs Each day, one half of the class will be scheduled for presentations followed by Q & A in the format of a conference session or colloquium. In addition, each paper will have an assigned discussant. * Final research design paper due by 5pm on Friday, Dec. 9 13