DPI-450: The Political Economy of Transition in China Spring Term 2018

Transcription

1 DPI-450 Spring 2018 DPI-450: The Political Economy of Transition in China Spring Term 2018 Instructor: Tony Saich 124 Mt. Auburn Street, Suite 200N, Rm. 214, Office Hours: Thursdays 2:30 to 6:00 p.m. by appointment Faculty Assistant: Jessica Eykholt 124 Mt. Auburn Street, Suite 200N, Rm. 212, Course Assistants: Dr. Manfred Elfstrom: Dr. Yao Li: Office hours: to be announced on the HKS course page Class Sessions: Tuesday and Thursday 8:45-10:00 Place: L140 Course Content: The course seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of the transition challenges that China faces as it continues to move from a centrally planned economy and centralized political structure to adopting a greater reliance on market-based mechanisms while retaining the authoritarian polity. We shall focus on the changing role of the state and state-society relations under reform. The first question to be addressed is a transition from what? The course begins with a critical evaluation of the development strategies pursued since The reform path has been shaped by certain legacies of the past. The second question to be addressed is the institutional framework for policy-making in China. How is policy made and implemented? What is the role of the Party and governmental apparatus at the central and non-central levels? How have state-society relations changed during the reforms, has accountability improved, is a civil society emerging or is China moving toward a form of Asian corporatism? Part three looks at current key policy challenges starting with the question of whether there is a Chinese model of development. Then, we look at the politics of urbanization, energy policy

2 and key social challenges such as the provision of public goods and services and poverty alleviation. Part Four looks at future challenges that China faces, including the US-China relationship. Course Requirements: There are two assignments required for this course. The first assignment is a group exercise. Depending on the number of students in the class, we will form groups of six who will work on a policy problem. The output will have two forms. There will be a 20-minute briefing of which 10 minutes will be taken up by a power-point presentation. The remaining 10 minutes will be used for questions. In your briefing, you may use no more than six power-point slides. The group will also prepare a two-page memo (doublespaced) that summarizes and highlights the points made in the briefing. You are to give me the memo at the time of the briefing. The second is an individually written five-page policy brief that outlines, analyzes and makes a policy recommendation for a particular problem. This may be a national problem or one within a specific industry, technical or geographic area. The policy brief should be addressed to the appropriate official. Further details of expectations will be given during the course. The group assignment will count for one-third of the grade and the individual memo two-thirds but Class participation will be taken into account when assessing the final grade for the course. The Kennedy School has established a recommended distribution for grading and this course will follow this decision. The recommended range for A is 10-15%; A %; B %; B 20-25%; B- or lower 5-10%. The Group Policy Memo will be due either during the week of March 21 The Individual Policy Memo should be handed by the end of the final class on April 26. Academic Integrity: You are expected to adhere to the University policies on academic honesty and integrity as given in the Student handbook. Any violation of these policies will not be tolerated and are subject to severe sanctions up to and including expulsion from the university. Students are encouraged to work together but unless otherwise stated above, any work handed in must be that of the individual student alone. Students must observe HKS rules regarding the citation of sources. Any sentences - 2 -

3 or paragraphs taken verbatim from the writing (or interviews with) any other person or persons, or from your own writing that has been published elsewhere, must be placed in quotation marks and their source must be clearly identified. Whenever you are drawing an important argument or insight from someone else, even if you reword it into your own words, a reference to the source is required. Course Materials: Students should purchase Tony Saich, Governance and Politics of China (Palgrave, fourth edition, 2015) and read the relevant sections as background for the classes. All course materials are online. Students can access these materials from the HKS course page

4 Course Overview: Part One: Part Two: Part Three: Part Four: Introduction, Path Dependence and Pre-Reform Structures Political Structures and Decision-Making Policy Challenges: Economic, Urbanization and Social Future Challenges - 4 -

5 Course Schedule and Readings Part One: Introduction, Path Dependence and Pre-Reform Structures Session one (January 23): Introduction: Four Transitions and Future Challenges Introduction to the Course: Students should be prepared to introduce themselves, and discuss what they hope to get from the course. We shall outline the key challenges facing China s new leaders that will be addressed in the course. Read--Saich, Chapter One. Session two (January 25): Echoes from the Past: Legacies from the Maoist Past 1) Saich, Chapters Two. 2) Heilmann, Sebastian and Elizabeth J. Perry, Embracing Uncertainty: Guerrilla Policy Style and Adaptive Governance in China, in Heilmann and Perry (eds.), Mao s Invisible Hand. The Political Foundations of Adaptive Governance in China. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011: ) Shirk, Susan. The Pre-reform Chinese Economy and the Decision to Initiate Market Reforms. The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China in Shirk (ed.) (Berkeley, CA: UC Press, 1993), pp What influenced the CCP s initial policy choices after 1949? Which groups or institutions were the main beneficiaries of China s development strategy? In what ways has reform in China been shaped and constrained by its existing political structures and historical legacies? Session three (January 30): What Does President Xi Jinping Dream About? 4) Saich, Chapter Three 5) Evan Osnos, Born Red, in The New Yorker, April 6, ) The Economist, Life and Soul of the Party, October 14-20, What are the key challenges facing the new leadership? How might vested interests shape the outcome of the reform proposals? How imperial is Xi Jinping s leadership style? - 5 -

6 Part Two: Political Structures and Decision-Making Session four (February 1): Fragmentary or Unitary Rule: Decision-Making in China 7) Heilmann, Sebastian, Policy experimentation in China s Economic Rise in Studies in Comparative International Development, vol. 43, No. 1, 2008, pp ) Mertha, Andrew, Fragmented Authoritarianism 2.0 : Political Pluralization in the Chinese Policy Process in The China Quarterly, No, 200, December 2009, pp ) Stern, Rachel E. and Kevin J. O Brien, Politics at the Boundary: Mixed Signals and the Chinese State, in Modern China, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp How does policy get made in China? Is there variation across different policy areas? What are the rewards or penalties for political entrepreneurialism? Session five (February 6): From Revolutionary to Ruling: The Changing Role of the Party 10) Saich, Chapter Four. 11) Tsang, Steve, Consultative Leninism: China s New Political Framework in Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 18, No. 62, 2009, pp ) Thornton, Patricia M., The Advance of the Party: Transformation of takeover of Urban Grassroots Society? in The China Quarterly, No. 213, March 2013, pp ) McGregor, Richard, Chapter One: The Red Machine: The Party and the State, in The Party: The Secret World of China s Communist Rulers (New York: Harper-Collins, 2010), pp How, if at all, has the CCP adapted to the changing socio-economic environment? What explains the resilience of the CCP? Who does the CCP represent? Session six and seven (February 8 and 13): The Mountains are High and the Emperor is Far Away: Provincial China We shall start this session with discussion of a simple exercise designed to get you thinking about provincial level politics

7 14) Cheung, Peter T.Y. Introduction: Provincial Leadership and Economic Reform in Post-Mao China in Cheung, Chung and Li (eds.), Provincial Strategies of Economic Reform in Post- Mao China. Leadership, Politics and Implementation (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1998), pp ) Saich, Chapter Six. 16) Chung, Jae Ho, Hongyi Lai and Jang-Hwan Joo, Assessing the Revive the Northeast (zhenxing dongbei) Programme: Origins, Policies and Implementation, in The China Quarterly, no. 197, March 2009, pp ) Ching, Jae Ho, China s Local Governance in Perspective: Instruments of Central Government Control, in The China Journal, No. 75, January 2016, pp Which factors are the most important in terms of influencing provincial level politics? What are the consequences of fiscal decentralization? What mechanisms does the center retain to influence policy at the local levels? Sessions eight and nine (February 15 and 20): Fused Power or a Force for Change: Local Government We shall start the first of these two sessions with a couple of simple cases about township government. The piece by Saich provides background for this discussion. 18) Saich, Tony, The Blind Man and the Elephant: Analysing the Local State in China, in East Asian Capitalism. Conflicts, Growth and Crisis, in Luigi Tomba (ed.) (Milan: Feltrinelli Editore, 2002), pp ) Jun Ma, Hidden Fiscal Risks in Local China, in Australian Journal of Public Administration, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp ) Smith, Graeme, The Hollow State: Rural Governance in China, in The China Quarterly, No. 203, September 2010, pp ) Fewsmith, Joseph, The Elusive Search for Effective Sub-County Governance, in Heilmann and Perry (eds.), Mao s Invisible Hand (Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 2011), pp ) Yang Xuedong, Local Government Reform in China in the Past Ten Years: An Evaluation Based on Chinese Local Governance Innovation Awards, Stanford, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, January

8 In what ways do local officials influence policy choices? How does reform empower local bureaucrats in the policy process? What are the primary incentives governing the behavior of local officials? What is the nature of the local state in China? - 8 -

9 Part Three: Policy Challenges: Urbanization, Economic and Social Session ten (February 22): Beijing or Washington Consensus: Is there a China Model? 23) Williamson, John, Is the Beijing Consensus Now Dominant? in Asia Policy, No. 13, January 2012, pp ) Huang, Yasheng, Rethinking the Beijing Consensus in Asia Policy, No. 11, January 2011, pp ) Lynch, Daniel C., Economic Growth: Marching into a Middle Income Trap, section of Chapter Two in China s Futures. PRC Elites Debate Economics, Politics, and Foreign Policy (Stanford: Stanford University Press), pp What are the distinctive features of the Beijing Consensus? Can China s development serve as a model to others? Session eleven (February 27): Energy Governance. Guest speaker Prof. Edward Cunningham will lead a discussion relating to China s energy governance and state/firm relations. 26) Cunningham, Edward A. Energy Governance: Fueling the Miracle in Joseph Fewsmith (ed.) China Today, China Tomorrow: Domestic Politics, Economy, and Society. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010, pp ) Zhou, Yiyi and Sophie Lu, China s Renewables Curtailment and Coal Assets Risk Map, in Bloomberg New Energy Finance, October 25, Link: What are the priorities of energy reform today? What is the role of SOE/corporate reform in improving Chinese energy governance? - 9 -

10 Session twelve (March 1): Metropolis or Small Town China: The Politics of Urbanization 28) McKinsey Global Institute, Preparing for China s Urban Billion, 2009, Executive Summary. 29) Yusuf, Shahid and Kaoru Nabeshima, Optimizing Urban Development, in Shahid Yusuf and Tony Saich (eds.) China Urbanizes: Consequences, Strategies and Policies (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2008), pp ) Shaohua Zhan, Hukou Reform and Land Politics in China: Rise of a Tripartite Alliance, in The China Journal, No. 78, July 2017, pp What is the optimum size for Chinese cities? How sustainable is the current model of urban development? What are the major constraints on China s urbanization? Session thirteen (March 6): Bringing Cities to the Farmers: Urbanization in the Countryside 27) Chung, Him and Jonathan Unger, The Guangdong Model of Urbanization: Collective Village Land and the Making of a New Middle Class, in China Perspectives, No. 3, 2013, pp ) Svartzman, Boris, The Leap to the City: Resistance and Transition in a Chinese Village Facing Urbanisation, in China Perspectives, No. 1, 2013, pp ) Siu Wai Wong, Land Requisitions and State-Village Power Restructuring in Southern China, in The China Quarterly, No. 224, December 2015, How important were the township and village enterprises for rural growth? How successful has urbanization in the countryside been?

11 Session fourteen (March 8): Winnie the Pooh and Tigger: State-Society Relations 30) Link, Perry and Xiao Qiang, From Grass-Mud Equestrians to Rights-Conscious Citizens: Language and Thought on the Chinese Internet, in Perry Link, Richard P. Madsen and Paul G. Pickowicz (eds.), Restless China (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2013), pp ) Kleinman, Arthur et al. Introduction: Remaking the Moral Person in a New China, in Deep China: The Moral Life of the Person (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2011), pp ) Lee, Sui Yau, Surviving Online Censorship in China: Three Satirical Tactics and Their Impact, in The China Quarterly, No. 228, December 2016, pp How can society influence policy-making? Does the divided self help explain public and private expression in China? Can the internet be controlled? Session fifteen (March 20): Protest with Chinese Characteristics 33) O Brien, Kevin J., and Lianjiang Li Rightful Resistance in Rural China. New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-15, ) Fu, Diana Disguised Collective Action in China. Comparative Political Studies 50(4): pp ) Guobin Yang Contention in Cyberspace. In Kevin J. O'Brien (ed.), Popular Protest in China. Harvard University Press, pp What strategies do ordinary Chinese use to voice their discontent with state policies and the actions of economic elites? Why do they adopt such strategies? Is the state s influence over protest significant? How do their strategies differ from or resemble those used by citizens in democratic countries? Session sixteen (March 22): Do Protests in China Achieve Anything? 36) Cai, Yongshun Collective Resistance in China: Why Popular Protests Succeed or Fail. Chapter 8, Popular Resistance and Policy Adjustment. Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp

12 37) Chen, Xi Collective Petitioning and Institutional Conversion. In Kevin J. O'Brien (ed.), Popular Protest in China. Harvard University Press, pp ) Li, Yao A Zero-Sum Game? Repression and Protest in China. Government and Opposition, pp How can we explain variation in Chinese state responses to protests? What are the political consequences of protests in China? How do state responses to contention in China differ from democratic governments? Is the Chinese state more or less easily swayed by popular mobilization? Session seventeen (March 27): Keeping a Lid on Dissent 39) Lee, Ching Kwan, and Yonghong Zhang The Power of Instability: Unraveling the Microfoundations of Bargained Authoritarianism in China. American Journal of Sociology 118(6): ) King, Gary, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E. Roberts How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression. American Political Science Review 107(2): ) Lorentzen, Peter L Designing Contentious Politics in Post-1989 China. Modern China, Vol 43, Issue 5, pp ) Wang, Yuhua, and Carl Minzner The Rise of the Chinese Security State. The China Quarterly 222, pp How does the Chinese regime deal with dissent? What are the government s major strategies for controlling protests? Are soft or hard approaches dominant? Why do authorities adopt these strategies? How has China s security state altered since 1989? What other important turning points have there been? Session eighteen (March 29): Getting Things Done: Two Cases This session will review two different cases of NGO activity in China to develop a discussion about varying modes of operation. The two cases will be available on the course website. 43) Grassroots NGOs Response to the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. 44) Green Han River: An NGO Combats Water Pollution in China

13 45) Gåemyr, Hans Jørgen Navigation, Circumvention and Brokerage: The Tricks of the Trade of Developing NGOs in China, in The China Quarterly, No. 229, March 2017, pp Session nineteen (April 3): Getting Things Done: Women s Health in Yunnan After discussing rural healthcare problems, we shall discuss a case of an NGO trying to start a reproductive health program in Yunnan and then discuss the actual outcome. 46) Martine Audibert et al., Health Insurance Reforms and Health Policies in Rural China, in China Perspectives, No. 4, 2016, pp ) Duckett, Jane, Challenging the Economic Reform Paradigm: Policy and Politics in the Early 1980s Collapse of the Rural Co-operative Medical System, in The China Quarterly, No. 205, March 2011, pp ) Duckett, Jane, Health and Social Policy, in Chris Ogden (ed.), Handbook of China s Governance and Domestic Politics, (New York: Routledge, 2013), pp How can better equity be brought to healthcare provision? What factors cause the inequality of service provision between urban and rural China? Session twenty (April 5): Philanthropy and China s New Rich 49) Wang Zhenyao and Zhao Yanhui, The Collapse and Reemergence of Private Philanthropy in China, in Jennifer Ryan, Lincoln C. Chen and Tony Saich (eds.), Philanthropy for Health in China (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2014), pp ) Marquis, Christopher, Qi Li and Kunyuan Qiao, The Chinese Collectivist Model of Charity, in Stanford Social Innovation Review, Summer 2017, pp ) Goodman, David S.G., The New Rich in China: Why There is no New Middle Class, vol. 32, 2010, pp How have the new rich in China accumulated their wealth? In what ways does Chinese philanthropy differ or nor differ from giving in the West? Session twenty-one (April 10): Developing Social Citizenship: Framework for Social Policy 52) Saich, Chapter Ten

14 53) Sara A. Newland, Which Public? Whose Goods? What We Know (and What we Don t) About Public Goods in Rural China, China Quarterly, No. 228, December 2016, pp ) Dickson, Bruce J. et al., Public Goods and Regime Support in Urban China, in The China Quarterly, No. 228, December 2016, pp Why have social costs been high in transitions from planned to more market oriented economies? Is it desirable to consider social equity in development strategy? Can high-level growth alone resolve social service provision? Sessions twenty-two and twenty-three (April 12 and 17): Are the Poor Always with us? Inequality and Poverty We shall include in these two sessions a discussion of a case on microfinance in China and then broaden the discussion to microfinance in China more broadly and to poverty alleviation strategy in general. 55) Campbell, Robert. NGO Microfinance in the Tibet Autonomous Region. HKS Case Program, No , pp ) Kanbur, Ravi, Yue Wang and Xiaobo Zhang, The Great Chinese Inequality Turnaround, VOX CEPR s Policy Portal, March 15, 2017 at 57) Riskin, Carl, Inequality: Overcoming the Great Divide in Joseph Fewsmith (ed.) China Today, China Tomorrow: Domestic Politics, Economy, and Society (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010), pp How successful have microfinance experiments been in China? What kind of role, if any, should the state play in poverty alleviation? What are the main drivers of poverty and inequality in China? Do increasing levels of inequality matter? If so, in what ways?

15 Part Four: Future Challenges and Their Global Consequences Session twenty-four (April 19) US-China Trade and Climate Change: The Case of Solar Guest speaker Prof. Edward Cunningham will again lead a discussion, this time relating to US- China relations, trade, and the implications for climate 58) Shaping the Future of Solar Power: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, and Free Trade, HKS757 59) National Solar Jobs Consensus, Solar Foundation, January 2016: Jobs-Census.pdf How effective are trade tariffs in achieving political and economic goals? How will the politics of trade barriers affect climate mitigation efforts? Session twenty-five (April 24): The US-China Relationship 60) Blackwill, Robert D. and Ashley J. Tellis, Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China (Council on Foreign Relations, Special Report, No. 71), pp ) Rudd, Kevin, U.S.-China 21: The Future of U. S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping (Belfer Center, 2014). 62) Allison, Graham, The Thucydides Trap, in Foreign Policy, May-June 2017, pp What are the major challenges in the US-China Relationship? How might mutual interests be pursued better? Has the relationship reached a tipping point as suggested by Lampton? Session twenty-six (April 26) Three Scenarios in Search of a Chinese Reality 63) Gilley, Bruce. Resources for Change. Chapter four of Bruce Gilley, China s Democratic Future: How it Will Happen and Where it Will Lead. New York: Columbia University Press, ) Pei, Minxin, The Dark Side of China s Rise, Foreign Policy, March/April 2006, pp ) Fallows, James, Arab Spring, Chinese Winter in Atlantic Magazine, September,

16 66) Wright, Teresa, Introduction in Accepting Authoritarianism. State-Society Relations in China s Reform Era (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010), pp What are the possible resources for a potential democratic breakthrough in China and what are the major constraints? What are the consequences if China does not democratize?