Communism, Federalism and Ethnic Minorities: Explaining Party Competition in Eastern Europe

Transcription

1 Communism, Federalism and Ethnic Minorities: Explaining Party Competition in Eastern Europe A Note on Why I Study Eastern Europe Jan Rovny jrovny@gmail.com Sciences Po, Paris, CEE / LIEPP University of Gothenburg, CERGU / Political Science Prepared for Wither Eastern Europe: Changing Political Science Perspectives on the Region Workshop held at the University of Florida, January 9-11, 2014.

2 My work on eastern Europe focuses on understanding the formulation of political interests in the form of partisan ideological platforms. On the one hand, it comes as a response to a traditional view that party ideology in eastern Europe is unstable, underspecified and personalistic. On the other hand, it reacts to more recent works that expect party positioning to be determined by various communist legacies, reflecting a tension between liberal market capitalism and authoritarian state-run economics. While the study of communist legacies and transition paths as determinants of democratic trajectories has provided fruitful understanding of the region, it does not manage to capture a significant portion of the variance in party positioning and party competition. My work highlights the role of ethnic politics as critical additional determinants of party competition in eastern Europe. Previous studies of eastern Europe have underestimated the impact of ethnicity in party system development for two possible reasons. First, ethnicity is generally considered as antithetical to programmatic party competition, and is therefore juxtaposed to ideological formation. Second, the focal cases of many studies the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are (together with Slovenia) the most ethnically homogeneous countries in the region. The focus on these systems consequently conceals the effect of ethnicity. Nonetheless, ethnic divides have played crucial roles in the nation and party system building of most countries in the region, from the Baltics to the Balkans. Eastern Europe provides an invaluable laboratory for studying the interaction between ethnicity and ideology, increasing not only our knowledge of the region, but enabling us to develop and test general theoretical propositions about the formation of political interests and platforms in the context of ethnic heterogeneity and tension. This theoretical development holds significant promise, as the interaction between ethnicity and ideology has been largely understudied. As most scholarship considers ethnicity to detract from ideological (positional) politics, rather replacing it with conflict between particularistic groups, most research overlooks the ideological potential of ethnic divisions. My work suggests that support of or opposition to ethnic minority interests has important consequences for ideological party placements and party system formation. 1

3 Why We Need to Know More about Eastern Europe? While original studies of eastern European party politics highlighted its unstable, ideologically underspecified and personalistic character (Ost 1993, Mair 1997, Kopecky 1995, Agh 1996, Pridham and Lewis 1996, Zielinski 2002, Van Biezen 2003, Webb and White 2007), more recent scholarship finds that the fluidity of eastern European parties reflects a striking degree of structure. Tavits (2008b: 67) suggests that political competition in these fluid party systems is policy-based to a significant degree, while Whitefield (2002: 191) argues that [t]here is considerable evidence that post-communist societies contain structured social and ideological divisions... and that voters choose parties that in large measure programmatically reflect their interests. The structure of party competition can be meaningfully captured by placing parties on two ideological axes: 1) economic left-right, capturing the role the government should play in market regulation and resource redistribution, often distinguishing communist parties on the left, with opponents of the communist regime on the right; and 2) social-cultural dimension, reflecting social liberalism and cosmopolitanism versus traditionalism and conservatism (Kitschelt 1992, Kitschelt 1995, Marks et al. 2006, Markowski 2006). Placing eastern European political parties in this two-dimensional space highlights their distinctiveness from the west. In the west, left-wing economics coincide with social liberalism, while right-wing parties tend towards socially conservative views (van der Brug and van Spanje 2009). In the east, the left s association with communist authoritarianism and its unease with capitalist liberal-democracy connects the economic left with social conservatism, which may lead to cooperation between left-wing and nationalist parties (Ishiyama 1998). The economic right, on the other hand, combines market liberalization with democratic opposition to communist rule, giving it socially liberal outlooks. This competitive logic in eastern Europe thus produces party systems that are homogeneously distinct from those in the west (Marks et al. 2006, Vachudova & Hooghe 2009). The view that eastern European party competition is a mirror image of the west is, however, challenged by recent empirical evidence (Rovny and 2

4 (a) Aggregated (b) Disaggregated Figure 1: Party Competition in Europe 3

5 Edwards 2012, Bakker et al. 2012). Figure 1a demonstrates that on the aggregate level, western and eastern European parties (with vote > 3%) exhibit the expected divergent patterns. In the west, economically left parties are socially liberal, while in the east the opposite is true the left is socially conservative while the right tends to champion social liberalism. Figure 1b, however, highlights that when disaggregated, eastern party systems manifest a number of distinctive competition patterns, some of which copy the west. Strikingly, these competition patterns do not reflect the explanatory factors highlighted by the literature. These competition patterns do not coincide with different communist regime types, successor party strategies, or transition paths. 1 Additional explanatory factors are needed to bear on this variance. Explaining Party Competition in Eastern Europe The Role of Ethnicity My work starts from the premise that in times of political transformation ethnic minorities are easy targets for political mobilization. While political preferences are underdefined, ethnic differences are easily understood as delineating political factors (cf. Birnir 2007b). The key concern is which political camp uses the ethnic card and how. Consequently, responses to ethnic minority issues align political preferences, and thus frame party competition structure. Ethnicity and Parties in Eastern Europe My research demonstrates that the presence and origin of politically salient domestic ethnic minorities 2 determine party responses to ethnic issues. Where a politically salient minority originates from the center of a dissolved communist federation, economically left-leaning parties adopt implicitly tolerant or explicitly supportive stances on ethnic issues, while the economic right espouses ethnic nationalism. On the contrary, where a politically salient ethnic 1 To summarize the structure of party competition of each party system, the figures contain an axis of competition (Kitschelt 1994: 31-2). The axis of competition is the line of best fit across the two dimensions. 2 A politically salient ethnic minority is a numerous, politically organized ethnic group, capable of potentially influencing electoral results. 4

6 minority originates from elsewhere than a federal center, the economic left is induced to scapegoat ethnic minorities, while the economic right adopts tolerant ethnic views. Let us consider these two scenarios in turn. The first scenario consists of a number of countries that gained independence from communist federations in the 1990s, and that have significant ethnic minorities originating from the old federal center. These ethnics used to belong to the national group dominating the communist federation, however, with federal collapse, they became ethnic minorities in newly independent states. Ethnic minorities from the federal center tend to be politically associated with the left. These groups have an affinity for communism, as for them it symbolizes multinational unity; they tend to view the federation as their homeland, as communist centralism and multinationalism justify and simplify their minority position in the federal periphery; they tend to be associated with the communist party organizationally, thanks to various federal power-sharing mechanisms. (See Laitin 1998; Bunce 1999; Leff 1999: 218; Melvin 2000: 136; Zakosek 2000: 217) After federal collapse, ethnic minorities from the federal center become viewed as an impediment to national independence of the federal periphery. The dominant nation-building forces of the new state reject communism on both economic and national grounds, thus combining right-wing economic and nationalist positions (see Hanley 2004: 14). In this context, the newly formed ethnic minority from the federal center associates with the economic left represented either by communist successor parties or other left-wing formations. The second scenario consists of countries where the politically salient ethnic minority originates from elsewhere than a federal center. These are countries that were either unitary states, or that formed the federal center under communism. Here the fall of communism is not accompanied by aspirations for national independence and subsequent state building. Rather, the collapse of the party-state, precipitated by federal dismemberment and the loss of federal peripheries, and/or by the deterioration of communist regime legitimacy, forms the political environment (Stein 2000). Here the presence of politically significant ethnic minorities (from elsewhere than a federal center) provides a strategic opportunity for the communist parties and their successors. Under pressure, the communist parties and their suc- 5

7 cessors in these countries exploit the presence of ethnic minorities, utilizing the combination of left-wing economics and nationalism. Simultaneously, the democratic opposition in these countries rejects communist economic views, while also sharing the striving of ethnic minorities for individual and collective rights denied by communism. The combination of these dynamics predisposes the nascent right-wing political forces towards greater tolerance if not political support of ethnic minorities. The interplay between the demise of communist federalism and the presence of politically significant ethnic minorities thus creates two distinct competitive poles in eastern Europe. In countries where the significant ethnic minority originates from a federal center, the left supports ethnic minorities, while the right tends to be less supportive. In countries with other ethnic minorities, the left tends to be less supportive of ethnic minorities than the right. Figure 2, based on an OLS model controlling for communist regime, speed of transition, GDP per capitam and electoral district magnitude, demonstrates this relationship. Ethnicity and Social Liberalism Ethnic minority preferences lead actors toward general social liberalism. This is because the most vital interest of any ethnic minority group cultural survival is better served by socially liberal policies. Ethnic minorities thus advocate individual and collective rights, as these afford them the possibility to develop cultural, political or educational organizations aimed at maintaining and furthering their customs, language and collective life in general. 3 Furthermore, ethnic minorities aim to define statehood in civic terms, rejecting ethnic conceptions of nation-states often advanced by the majority. Consequently, they support pluralistic constitutional arrangements with inclusive citizenship rights, where ethnic minorities and majorities are conceived as partner-nations (see Csergo 2002, Verdery 1993). To build coalitions, ethnic minorities cooperate with each other which induces greater acceptance of other ethnics. Finally, given their skepticism toward the state, 3 It should be noted that Stein (2000: 21) warns against a myth of minority virtue, suggesting that today s majority oppressors were yesterday s oppressed minorities. However, evidence shows that, while in a minority position, ethnic minorities favor minority rights (Evans and Need 2002). 6

8 Figure 2: Predicting Left- and Right-Wing Ethnic Minority Support Note: Predicted partial slopes with 95% confidence intervals, while controlling for communist regime, speed of transition, GDP per capita and electoral district magnitude. Chapel Hill Expert Surveys 2006/7 & 2010 (Bakker et al. forthcoming; Hooghe et al. 2010). often dominated by the ethnic majority, ethnic minorities fear political repression, and consequently prefer liberal law and order policies. In its totality, the political situation of ethnic minorities frames their preferences in social liberal terms, and consequently, the representation of ethnic minority interests is an overall liberalizing factor in socio-cultural positioning of political actors. The liberalizing impetus of ethnic minority interests is counterbalanced by the conservatizing effect of religion. Since democratization restored religious organizations role in society, the church has exerted conservative influence over political questions central to religious teaching, such as moral, sexual and reproductive issues (see Norris and Inglehart 2011, chapter 7). In the eastern European context, however, the church plays an influential 7

9 role on political views in an additional manner. In much of eastern Europe, communism has been perceived as a foreign force that came to dominate the region through Soviet military presence in the aftermath of World War II. 4 With its historical opposition to communist rule, the church has consequently become viewed as a guardian of nationhood against foreign hegemony. In Poland, for example, the Catholic church became a synonym for defender of Polishness (Borowik 2002b: 240); while Croatian nationalists promoted Catholicism as a basis for national identity. Consequently, in eastern Europe, the church (regardless of denomination) is frequently associated with conservative nationalism. Figure 3: Marginal effect of ethnic support on socio-cultural placement Note: Predicted marginal effect with 95% c.i. Calculated according to Brambor et al. (2006). Marginal effect of ethnic support ranges from liberalizing to conservatizing. Religious views range from secular to religious. Chapel Hill Expert Surveys 2006/7 & 2010 (Bakker et al. forthcoming; Hooghe et al. 2010) 4 A significant outlier is Serbia where communism was viewed as a force uniting Yugoslavia in a struggle against fascism (Zakosek 2000: 216). 8

10 These two forces interact. Where ethnic minority support coincides with secular political views, there the unhindered impetus of ethnic rights support induces parties toward social liberalism. Where, on the contrary, ethnic support overlaps with religious convictions, the liberalizing effect of ethnic minority support gets nullified by religious conservatism. Here ethnic identity becomes infused with religiousness, diluting the liberalizing ethnic interests with social conservatism. Figure 3, based on an OLS model controlling for economic left-right placement, communist regime type, speed of transition, GDP per capita and electoral district magnitude, demonstrates this interaction. Ethnicity and Party Competition Partisan association with ethnic minorities ultimately shapes the main conflict line in each country. Given the liberalizing effect of ethnic minority support, the relative differences in economic left- versus right-wing ethnic support determine the structure of party competition on the systemic level. Where the economic left supports ethnic minorities significantly more than the right, the competition pits left-liberals against right-conservatives. Where the economic right is more supportive of ethnic minorities than the left, party competition juxtaposes left-conservatives with right-liberals. Figure 4 demonstrates this relationship. Conclusion My research on eastern Europe aims to explain the variance in eastern patterns of party competition by considering alternative competition sources in post-communist Europe. These sources are the political dynamics surrounding ethnic politics. In countries where the main ethnic minority originated from the center of a communist federation, there the local economically left-wing parties adopted accepting or outright supportive positions toward ethnic minority rights. Where the main ethnic minority is of other origins, there left-wing parties face strategic incentives to utilize ethnic nationalism and chauvinism to legitimize and resuscitate their compromised left-wing ideology. 9

11 Figure 4: Predicting the Axis of Party Competition Note: Country placements with predicted values and 95% confidence intervals. Chapel Hill Expert Surveys 2006/7 & 2010 (Bakker et al. forthcoming; Hooghe et al. 2010) Simultaneously, given ethnic minority support for greater individual and collective rights, greater cultural inclusiveness, and limited repressive capacity of the state, that are critical for their sustenance as a distinct group, the ethnic minority issue associates with general socio-cultural preferences. Parties that support ethnic minorities tend to social liberalism, while parties less committed to ethnic minority rights are socially conservative. Consequently, the relative commitment to ethnic minority support across the economic left and the right determines the structure of party competition on the systemic level. My work has a number of implications for the study of party competition. First, it demonstrates that ethnic cleavages have important ideological consequences in party system formation. While much of the literature considers ethnic divides as detrimental to programatic party competition, framing politics in particularistic rather than ideological terms, this argument highlights 10

12 how ethnic contest informs policy positions of parties. Second, my research underlines the critical nature of communist federal collapse and ethnic politics for the framing of party competition in the region, complementing the role of communist regime legacies. Indeed, communist federal collapse is a communist legacy. Simultaneously, this article demonstrates that communist regime type plays secondary role in framing party competition compared with experiences with federal demise and ethnic minority divides. Only in the absence of federal break-away and significant domestic minorities (as in the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary), do regime types drive party competition. It is no surprise then, that Poland and Hungary, lacking the effects of federalism and of politically significant domestic ethnic minorities, have come to epitomize the example where communist regime type and communist party reformism determine party competition. Finally, my work theorizes and demonstrates the conditions under which post-communist left-wing parties adopt social liberalism an outcome not expected or discussed by the literature on post-communist party systems. The left is likely to be most socially conservative in countries that were centers of communist federations, and that have large ethnic minorities. The loss of federal peripheries, together with the presence of domestic ethnic out-groups is a critical factor fueling social conservatism. On the contrary, the tendency of the left to be socially liberal is the strongest in the countries that were the peripheries of communist federations, and that have significant ethnic minorities from the federal center. The competitive dynamics stemming from leaving from a communist federation while retaining dominant ethnics from the federal center induces economically left-parties toward social liberalism, despite their communist heritage. 11

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