The Foundations of Rebel Groups (FORG) Database: Implications of the Origins of Rebel Groups in Africa

Transcription

1 The Foundations of Rebel Groups (FORG) Database: Implications of the Origins of Rebel Groups in Africa Jessica Maves Braithwaite School of Government and Public Policy University of Arizona Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham Department of Government and Politics University of Maryland Peace Research Institute Oslo 14 Nov 2015 Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

2 Motivation We know an increasing amount about rebel groups around the world once they re active in conflict against the government... but we don t know much - if anything - about their emergence. Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

3 Motivation We know an increasing amount about rebel groups around the world once they re active in conflict against the government... but we don t know much - if anything - about their foundations. Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

4 Motivation Staniland (2012, 2014): social basis & organizational cohesion of groups (Central, South, & Southeast Asia) Weinstein (2005, 2007): economic vs. social endowments of rebel groups (Uganda, Mozambique, Peru, etc) Widmeier (dissertation): militarization & mobilization of rebel groups at start of conflict Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

5 Motivation Staniland (2012, 2014): social basis & organizational cohesion of groups (Central, South, & Southeast Asia) Weinstein (2005, 2007): economic vs. social endowments of rebel groups (Uganda, Mozambique, Peru, etc) Widmeier (dissertation): militarization & mobilization of rebel groups at start of conflict A number of excellent case studies on various (often major) rebel groups, but these aren t systematic across all rebel groups Why do some of these groups fail to become major - do they lack the right foundations? Why do some groups take several months, or years, to impose violent costs on the state? (Do some foundations = ready-made rebellion?) Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

6 Introducing FORG Foundations of Rebel Groups (FORG) Database Rebel groups active type of parent organization political participation by/restrictions on parent organization fate of parent organization after rebel group emerges initial stated goals of rebel group initial ideological/ethnic/religious affilation of rebel group initial start-up assistance for rebel group Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

7 Introducing FORG Point of departure for identifying a rebel group: violent organizations included in Non-State Actor Database (Cunningham, Gleditsch, and Salehyan 2009), drawn from UCDP Actor Dataset conflict against recognized government produces 25+ deaths Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

8 Introducing FORG Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

9 FORG in Africa All rebel groups active between 1946 & battle deaths in a year 177 unique rebel groups across 42 countries Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

10 Parent Organization Types other rebel group armed group that hadn t yet caused 25+ deaths armed forces of previous regime current armed forces political party (legal or illegal) informal political movement student/youth group labor/economic union religious organization foreign fighters/military none Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

11 Parent Organization Types Types of Parent Organizations rebel group other armed former military current military political party political mvt student group labor union religious org foreign fighters none Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

12 Parent Organization Types Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

13 Parent Organization Types Types of Parent Organizations - Groupings rebel/fmr military current military political party social movement foreign fighters none Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

14 Parent Organization Types Rebel groups can have more than one parent organization Approximately 30 percent of groups are mergers between two or more parent organizations 10 mergers between violent and nonviolent organizations, e.g.: FPR: Rwandan refugee org (RANU) + Ugandan Armed Forces CNDP: RCD rebels + Synergie political movement SSDF: Somali Salvation Front + 2 socialist parties Mostly mergers of same organization type (e.g. multiple rebel groups: MPCI + MPIGO + MJP = Forces Nouvelles of Ivory Coast) Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

15 Parent Organization Fates What happens to these organizations after they give birth to a rebel group? continue on as wholly separate organization continue on as political wing of rebel group fully merge with new rebel group settled with gov t, cease to be active defeated by gov t, cease to be active defeated gov t, cease to be active Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

16 Parent Organization Fates Fates of Violent Parent Organizations remained military settled w/govt defeated by govt fight govt w/rebels fight govt & rebels fully merged other Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

17 Parent Organization Fates Fates of Nonviolent Parent Organizations stayed separate became pol wing fully merged other Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

18 Rebel Origins and Conflict Severity How do the foundations of a rebel group condition their conflict behavior? Three propositions: strong central command reduces opportunistic violence parent organizations help with this Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

19 Rebel Origins and Conflict Severity How do the foundations of a rebel group condition their conflict behavior? Three propositions: strong central command reduces opportunistic violence parent organizations help with this strong community ties reduce incentives/willingness/need for violence domestic parent organizations help with this Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

20 Rebel Origins and Conflict Severity How do the foundations of a rebel group condition their conflict behavior? Three propositions: strong central command reduces opportunistic violence parent organizations help with this strong community ties reduce incentives/willingness/need for violence domestic parent organizations help with this higher arms procurement capacity facilitates more casualties groups emerging from current/foreign militaries have ready access to this technology as compared to those with non-state actor parents Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

21 Rebel Origins and Conflict Severity: Civilian Victimization Rebel One-Sided Violence in Civil Wars (reference category: rebel groups without parent organization) Parent Organization Type Current Military Rebels & Fmr Military Political Party Social Movement Foreign Fighters Control Variables Multiple Rebel Groups Conflict Severity Conflict Area Democracy Population Gov't Violence Lagged Rebel Violence Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

22 Rebel Origins and Conflict Severity: Casualites Overall Battle Deaths in Civil Wars (reference category: rebel groups without parent organization) Parent Organization Type Current Military Rebels & Fmr Military Political Party Social Movement Foreign Fighters Control Variables Multiple Rebel Groups Conflict Area Democracy Duration Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

23 Rebel Origins & Conflict Severity Across African civil conflicts: rebel groups emerging from current military and social movements engage in less civilian targeting than rebel groups lacking parent organizations that tie rebels to existing social structures Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

24 Rebel Origins & Conflict Severity Across African civil conflicts: rebel groups emerging from current military and social movements engage in less civilian targeting than rebel groups lacking parent organizations that tie rebels to existing social structures rebel groups emerging from current & foreign military forces produce more overall battle deaths as compared to groups lacking parent organizations that tie rebels to existing social structures groups with non-state organization origins aren t differentiable from those without parents re: casualites Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

25 Rebel Origins & Conflict Severity Across African civil conflicts: rebel groups emerging from current military and social movements engage in less civilian targeting than rebel groups lacking parent organizations that tie rebels to existing social structures rebel groups emerging from current & foreign military forces produce more overall battle deaths as compared to groups lacking parent organizations that tie rebels to existing social structures groups with non-state organization origins aren t differentiable from those without parents re: casualites Factions from current military seem to be more effective & disciplined than rebel groups emerging from other types of parent organizations Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

26 Current & Future Directions civilian victimization conflict severity intervention & external support effectiveness of gov t counterinsurgency efforts negotiations post-conflict governance Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

27 Current & Future Directions civilian victimization conflict severity intervention & external support effectiveness of gov t counterinsurgency efforts negotiations post-conflict governance Latin American rebel groups, Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21

28 Current & Future Directions civilian victimization conflict severity intervention & external support effectiveness of gov t counterinsurgency efforts negotiations post-conflict governance Latin American rebel groups, identify rebelliously-relevant organizations in societies to build a dataset of latent rebel groups for dyadic studies of civil conflict onset Braithwaite & Cunningham FORG Africa 14 Nov / 21