19 January Discussion Report Talking ASEAN. Southeast Asia and the New U.S. President: Mapping the Next Four Years

Transcription

1 19 January 2017 Discussion Report Talking ASEAN Southeast Asia and the New U.S. President: Mapping the Next Four Years

2 Introduction: JAKARTA On Thursday, 19 January 2017, The Habibie Center held its Talking ASEAN dialogue entitled Southeast Asia and the New U.S. President: Mapping the Next Four Years at The Habibie Center Building in Jakarta. Moderated by Ms. Rahimah Abdulrahim (Executive Director, The Habibie Center), the dialogue featured Mr. Adam Mulawarman Tugio (Director for North and Central American Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Indonesia), Mr. Lin Neumann (Managing Director at AmCham Indonesia), and Prof. Hikmahanto Juwana (Professor in International Law, Faculty of Law, Universitas Indonesia) as speakers. The objectives of this Talking ASEAN were to: (a) map the next four years of ASEAN-U.S. relations in light of the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the U.S., (b) explore the possible approaches of U.S. foreign policy towards Southeast Asia and ASEAN by asking what will remain the same and what will change under a Trump Administration, and (c) provide recommendations on how to ensure U.S. foreign policy interest/commitment in Southeast Asia and ASEAN remain in place and what policy makers in the U.S. and ASEAN should do to achieve this. This discussion report summarises the key points delivered by each speaker as well as the question and answer session that followed. Reccommendations Among the key recommendations that emerged from this particular Talking ASEAN dialogue were: ASEAN to strengthen the East Asia Summit as the main diplomatic platform for constructive inter-regional dialogue, especially on the issue of South China Sea and regional balance of power; to build on the negotiation of RCEP as an alternative inter-regional free trade and investment regime; Indonesia to play more effective leadership to maintain ASEAN centrality and to be more active in contributing to the global issues such as terrorism, human rights and democracy; Indonesia to continue taking advantage of bilateral channels and build more interactions with the U.S. officials to maintain the partnership with the U.S.; continuing the economic and bureaucractic reforms to create robust regulations and a favourable business enviroment to attract more trade and investment from the business sector of the U.S. 1 Introduction - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN

3 ASEAN and the U.S. have to maintain the current structured relations through the East Asia Summit. Mr. Adam Mulawarman Tugio Director for North and Central American Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Indonesia

4 In addressing the question set by the moderator - regarding what we need to know to address the possibility of the various kind of challenges and opportunities from the Trump Administration - Mr. Tugio explained that to understand the policy projection of the new U.S. administration, the Foreign Ministry has been trying to decode the meaning of the messages, statements and even Twitter updates from Donald Trump. This is important because according to him, Trump s inauguration will not only affect the internal affairs of the U.S., but also global affairs due to the country s status as the world s superpower. Mr. Tugio especially highlighted Trump s trade policy as a part of his foreign policy priorities. Mr. Tugio explained that Trump s focus will be to promote trade especially to overcome the trade deficit in the U.S. There is in fact some contradictions from within the country, in which some people support free trade. There is also the expectation from the world for the U.S. to continue its role as a superpower and to lead the global order and continue its role in norm setting. This is not only going to affect interactions between countries, but also the interactions at the cabinet level and with officials involved in trade relations. Therefore, according to Mr. Tugio, the interplay of all these factors will result in a normal policy and we should not overreact to the transition. Mr. Tugio further emphasised that the policy approach of Trump s administration will be more pragmatic. He explained that governing is different from campaigning, and that Trump will be more pragmatic in addressing the challenges and will make policies that will serve the needs and interests of the U.S. As an example, Mr. Tugio described that while Trump is trying to reduce the attention to the climate change issue, there will be environment experts in the cabinet that will have an understanding on the issue and address the issue accordingly. On the U.S. and China relationship, Mr. Tugio also explained that Trump s approach will be more pragmatic for the interest of the Uinited States. China has exposed the possibility that another country can potentially overtake the U.S. s power in terms of the economy, and thus it will be important for Trump to combine the possibility of collaboration and competition for the interest of the U.S. Focusing on Southeast Asia, Mr. Tugio explained that ASEAN and the U.S. have to maintain the current structured relations through the East Asia Summit. The fact that ASEAN is the fourth biggest trading partner of the U.S. shows that the U.S. and ASEAN need each other. On security issue, the East Asia Summit serves as the main platform for dialogue on several issues, including the South China Sea. It is important to continue the dialogue, not only for the U.S. and ASEAN relations, but also for the U.S. and Europe relations. The challenges are how ASEAN will grab the attention of the U.S. and whether or not Trump will attend the aforementioned Summit. In the context of the U.S. and Indonesia relations, Mr. Tugio emphasised that bilateral channels will continue to be the main focus for both countries. Indonesia had in previous years upgraded the strategic partnership with the U.S. to a comprehensive partnership that encompasses various issues, including politics, economics and the promotion of democracy among others. Through various platform, such as the Bali Democracy Forum, the U.S. will continue its assistance and technical cooperation with Indonesia. 3 Speakers Presentation - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN

5 The policy of the U.S. will be filtered through the American domestic political institutions, so the rhetoric in Trump s campaign will be moderated Mr. Lin Neumann Managing Director at AmCham Indonesia

6 Mr. Neumann focused on the potential reaction from and impact for the business sector. According to him, the new Trump administration presents uncharted waters as this is the first time that the president does not have any previous experience in government. However, it is also too soon to tell whether there will be a dramatic effect and we still have to wait. In the context of ASEAN, Mr. Neumann explained that Southeast Asia is currently under a lot of pressure, especially with the South China Sea problem. It is important for ASEAN to maintain good relations with the U.S. as it is possible that China will threaten the stability in the region, for example by building on disputed features in the South China Sea. With such challenges, it is possible that ASEAN unity will be enhanced and the region will be an important fulcrum in the security issue between regional powers such as the U.S., China and India. ASEAN has provided a forum for a lot of powers, and by doing so has made the organisation diplomatically important. Mr. Neumann clarified that the government of the U.S. does not intervene in the business relations, and certainly does not tell where investors should go. Decision regarding business sectors investment is mainly based on economic calcutions and the condition of regulations and institutional frameworks in the targeted countries. According to him, the investment of U.S. business abroad will depend more on whether Indonesia have robust regulations and a favourable business enviroment. This explained why President Jokowi has put a lot of attention on economic and bureaucractic reforms in Indonesia. Business, as Mr. Neumaan explained, will go on as usual and there is already a discussion on the opportunity to take advantages of the new Trump administration in terms of U.S. and Indonesia s trade relations. According to Mr. Neumann, the main challenge for Indonesia is to get the attention of senior officials in the U.S. and build more interactions between officials. The problem is currently there is lack of interaction between Indonesian and U.S. officials, especially with the new Trump administration. In explaining the changes in policy direction, Mr. Neumann emphasised that the Trump administration will be more transactional and pragmatic in its approach. In his view, for example, there would not be a curb on immigration for Muslims as it is also in the interest of the U.S. to maintain good relations with the Muslim world. The policy of the U.S. will be filtered through the American domestic political institutions, so the rhetoric in Trump s campaign will be moderated. Mr. Neumann argued that to make America great again, it is important to have more trade and investment in the world, and so the most possible scenario is for the U.S. to renegotiate and rebrand the trade agreement for the benefit of U.S. workers. It is also possible for the U.S. to put greater efforts through bilateral relations, such as with Japan and Indonesia. Mr. Neumann also added that the Trump phenomenon is actually in keeping with the trend of populist and nationalist leaders in the world. In Asia there is Abe, Xi Jinping, Duterte and Modi who are all nationalist and mostly unpredictable. The Trump phonomenon is also parallel with the Jokowi momentum as they both represent leaders who promised to change the status quo. In conclusion, Mr. Neumann further emphasised that the policy of the U.S. will remain steady and that its allies would remain allies. The Trump administration will avoid volatility and will be more pragmatic. The groups who benefit from the stability of the system, will most likely push the government to keep it. 5 Speakers Presentation - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN

7 Obama mentioned the importance of the US balancing role in Asia, and it is important for Trump to continue playing such a role. Prof. Hikmahanto Juwana Professor in International Law, Faculty of Law, Universitas Indonesia

8 In opening his explanation, Prof. Juwana agreed with the previous speaker that the Trump phenomenon is something that is also happening elsewhere in the world. However, he stressed that the U.S. is specifically different because it is a big country that people look up to for democracy, human rights and civil liberties values. The real problem is whether Trump will really do what he said in his campaign. Prof. Juwana argued that changes will be less likely to happen as long as the bureaucracy in the U.S. remains strong. According to him, governments can come and go, but the bureaucracy will stay and will provide a channel for balancing power. In his view U.S. institutions are strong enough that the policies will less likely to change. He explained that in the scenario where Trump actually changes policies, there will be a new equilibrium and there will be a lot of expectations on the U.S. But another challenge may exist. What if Trump is impeached after his inauguration? The question will be up to the U.S. It is mainly the domestic issue of the country and it depends on the American government system how things will play out. mentioned the importance of the US balancing role, and it is important for Trump to continue playing such a role. China will gain more power if the U.S. pulls out, while Japan cannot also do much in terms of taking over leadership in the region. In this case, Indonesia is challenged to take up its own leadership role in ASEAN. It is going to be a difficult challenge as the unity of ASEAN is also in question. For now, the important things that Indonesia must do are to face the uncertainty it faces and to have a strategy for any kind of scenarios. He further explained that if Trump does change policies, especially in relation with ethnic minorities and Muslems, it will be a challenge for Indonesia. According to him, Indonesia will most likely be angry and will not be able to accept such policies if the U.S. declares that it has a problem with Islam. Currently, the Indonesian government is in a difficult position. Internally, its democracy is under test, but it also has to deal with the U.S. These problems must be anticipated and it is important for Indonesia to have more than one scenario. On the South China Sea problem, Prof. Juwana explained that up until now the U.S. has acted as a balancing power in responding to China s claims. Obama 7 Speakers Presentation - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN

9 Question and Answer

10 Question and Answer First session Comment No. 1: It seems that Trump will be more likely to focus on domestic issues. The question is whether the U.S. is still interested to retain its role as the policeman of the world, or whether China or Russia will take up this role. Comment No. 2: In relation with the case of Indonesian citizens, what should we expect from the reaction of Indonesian govenment to the new Trump administration? Comment No. 3: The first question is on trade. With the projected deadend of the TPP negotiations, how will RCEP become an opportunity for trade relations among ASEAN and its partners? The second question is in regards to the U.S. views on ASEAN centrality. Obama has always emphasised the centrality of ASEAN in his foreign policy with Southeast Asia. How will the new administration look at the centrality? Responses Mr. Lin Neumann In responding to the general policy approach, Mr. Neumann explained that campaign rethorics are only good for domestic audiences and that it would not be translated into real policy due to practicality problems. The U.S. does hold a central role in security and military issues, and in order to support that role, the U.S. also has to engage in good economic relations with the world. As in trade relations, the business sector has an interest in continuing trade and to not be contained. In regards to the TPP, he answered that while the TPP will fall apart, the U.S. should engage with its old partners to gain the benefits from all the trade partnership. The U.S. must continue to engage with its partners to be a part of the dialogue and not be left behind. Overall, trade policies will not change as much and it will not turn to be a geostrategic issue in his view. He argued that the U.S. will probably have to engage with the RCEP. Rahimah Abdulrahim As for ASEAN centrality, Mr. Neumann thought that ASEAN is currently at a weak point, and was not well placed to push for its agenda and interests. Executive Director, The Habibie Center 9 Question and Answer - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN

11 Prof. Hikmahanto Juwana Prof. Juwana echoed Mr. Neumann that it will not be easy to change U.S. policy, especially within four years. He hoped that the U.S. will continue to pursue its current policies and strategies. Mr. Adam Mulawarman Tugio Mr. Tugio argued that the U.S. will continue its role as the global policeman as it is already supported by both parties in the country. However, we still have to look at the implementation of this as it might be different. To gain the benefit from the new administration, Mr. Tugio said that Indonesia might have to capitalise on issues with which it has similar views with the Republican, such as LGBT rights. On other issues such as human rights and labour rights, the U.S. will probably continue its leadership role as the issues have been institutionalised. On addressing the question on RCEP, Mr. Tugio explained that the partnership has potential and it is currently on the right track. However, we also have to look at the potential of bilateral relations. Answering the question on ASEAN centrality, Mr. Tugio explained that we have to understand the limits of ASEAN capacity, what kind of issues we can move forward and to what extent we can push for it. For example, in terms of trade relations in the RCEP and other international law, we have to respect the agreed documents but the implementation might be different. Second session Comment No. 4: The U.S. failure to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum will be important for ASEAN, especially because the attendance means a lot for ASEAN and the countries will be dissapointed. This year the forum will be in the Philippines, do you think the U.S. will come? Also, what is your response on Xi Jinping s remarks at the World Economic Forum that emphasised globalisation and reforming global order? Comment No. 5: How will the American business sector use the ASEAN plus one agreements? What will be the difference from the RCEP? Comment No. 6: What is the vision of the U.S.-Russia relations? Asking for clarification on the U.S. leading role in global order, especially in the context of Middle East issues. Comment No. 7: Looking at how Trump communicates in his campaign and through his social media, do we need to get used to his communication style in the sense that we do not have to necessarily believe what he said because it is only a stunt to gain attention? Comment No. 8: Looking at the fact that we do not even have a U.S. ambassador to ASEAN currently, what is the relations between the U.S. and ASEAN going to be like? Responses Mr. Adam Mulawarman Tugio According to Mr. Tugio, it will be interesting to see the U.S. engagement with Southeast Asian countries. The Philippines, as the current ASEAN chair, must understand this and actually is trying to get involved more on this issue. The impact to ASEAN will not only depend on the U.S. -China relationship, Question and Answer - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN 10

12 but also on the U.S.-Russia relationship. We need to look at the real implementation, not only the rhetorics. Mr. Tugio also emphasised that the U.S. still needs to work with other countries on some issues. For example, one of the priorities of the U.S. government right now is to fight ISIS and Indonesia can take advantage of this issue to play an active role in this. By contributing to this, Indonesia will not only support the U.S. role in promoting the global order, but also benefit from the peace dividend in the world. With regards to Trump s communication method, the use of Twitter is indeed new and we still have to keep an eye on how Trump will use it to communicate his message. Mr. Lin Neumann In responding to the comment on China s support for globalisation, Mr. Neumann explained that China will especially benefit from the U.S. retreat. It is within China s interest to take a positive role in the global order as it will benefit from its new position. By initiating the AIIB, for example, China is actually trying to enhance its own interests and its partners interests. What Xi Jinping did was just trying to play a role to benefit his own country. On ASEAN plus one, Mr. Neumann explained that the U.S. s business sector will utilise anything that can make trade relations easier. The U.S. will probably look at it as a good thing, especially as an alternative to the TPP. The U.S. basically will welcome any initiative that can open trade relations. He further emphasised that what is important for the business sector is the condition of domestic institutions in the country. With regards to Trump s communication method, Mr. Neumann answered that this is unprecedented before and there is even disagreement among the cabinet staffs on this. However, Trump s direct approach and negotiation technique is very American. The style is, indeed, unsettling and Trump will always keep people off-balance and wondering what will he do next. The U.S. has never experienced a governance by Twitter, and this style is also a new experience that we need to keep an eye for. Prof. Hikmahanto Juwana Prof. Juwana agreed on Mr. Nuemann s answer on Trump s communication style. He also mentioned that with regards to policies, we still have to wait and see what will Trump say in the inauguration. Third session Comment 9: What should we listen for in tomorrow s (January 20, 2017) inauguration speech? Responses Mr. Adam Mulawarman Tugio The speech will probably focus on domestic policies and we should especially listen to any review of the country s migration policy. Other than that, we should also focus on economic policies. On foreign policy, we need to pay attention to statements that make reference to NATO and other countries that are important for the security of Indonesia. Mr. Tugio also explained that as of now, the Indonesian government still has little idea on the US s new policies and very much expect to learn a lot more from the 11 Question and Answer - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN

13 inauguration speech. According to him, the policies will most likely be different. Mr. Lin Neumann Mr. Neumann clarified that the anticipation of the new U.S. president is something normal that happens in America. Usually, the speech is expected to deliver a decisive position of the new administration. It is also a defining moment for the countries in the world as the U.S. continues to be the global leader. The U.S. is expected to address inequality and the gap caused by globalisation. Mr. Neumann expressed his hope for Trump to use the same tone that he used in his acceptance speech. According to him, it was a good speech and with the same tone, the speech will have the potential to unite people. He hoped that Trump will not gloat and use the content that is more in line with the expectations of the U.S. s role, not to use his campaign style. Even if the speech is not unifying, there will still be rational voices in the cabinet that will balance the policies. In conclusion, Mr. Neumann emphasised the tone of the speech is the most important aspect because it will be picked up by the American public and the world. It is also important for Trump to be more rational. Prof. Hikmahanto Juwana Mr. Juwana also explained that he hoped the tone of the speech will be the same with his acceptance speech. He further highlighted that the important thing is not the speech itself, but what kind of policy will be delivered and what changes in the cabinet that the world needs to adapt to. Question and Answer - Discussion Report Talking ASEAN 12

14 ABOUT ASEAN STUDIES PROGRAM The ASEAN Studies Program was established on February 24, 2010, to become a center of excellence on ASEAN related issues, which can assist in the development of the ASEAN Community by The Habibie Center through its ASEAN Studies Program, alongside other institutions working towards the same goal, hopes to contribute to the realization of a more people-oriented ASEAN that puts a high value on democracy and human rights. The objective of the ASEAN Studies Program is not merely only to conduct research and discussion within academic and government circles, but also to strengthen public awareness by forming a strong network of civil society in the region that will be able to help spread the ASEAN message. With the establishment of ASEAN Studies Program, The Habibie Center aims to play its part within our capabilities to the ASEAN regional development. ABOUT TALKING ASEAN Talking ASEAN is a monthly public dialogue held at The Habibie Center in Jakarta. Covering a wide array of issues related to ASEAN, Talking ASEAN addresses topics of: Economic Integration, Socio-cultural, & Democracy, human rights and regional peace, among others. Featuring local and visiting experts, Talking ASEAN is one of a series of twelve dialogues regularly held each month and open to a target audience consisting of ASEAN officials, foreign ambassadors & diplomats, academics, university students, businesses, and the media. PROJECT SUPERVISOR: Rahimah Abdulrahim (Executive Director) & Hadi Kuntjara (Deputy Director for Operations) HEAD OF ASEAN STUDIES PROGRAM: A. Ibrahim Almuttaqi RESEARCHERS: Fina Astriana, Muhamad Arif, Askabea Fadhilla, Agustha Lumban Tobing, Hana Hanifah, Vierna Tasya Wensatama FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION: Mila Oktaviani LAYOUT & DESIGN: Rahma Simamora, Tongki Ari Wibowo ASEAN Studies Program - The Habibie Center The Habibie Center Building - Jl. Kemang Selatan No.98, Jakarta Tel: Fax: thc@habibiecenter.or.id