LEADERSHIP STRATEGIES TO POSITION SOUTH SUDAN ON COURSE

Transcription

1 2015 LEADERSHIP STRATEGIES TO POSITION SOUTH SUDAN ON COURSE OTACHI J. ORINA PHD (ONGOING, LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE- JKUAT

2 Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION BRIEF HISTORY OF SOUTH SUDAN NATURE OF THE SOUTH SUDAN PROBLEM, SCOPE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE Background to the South Sudan Crisis Roots of tension Return to Crisis THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE IN CONFLICT ROLE OF LEADERSHIP IN POLICY REFORM FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION THE INTEGRAL LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE VIEWS FOR RETURN TO NORMALCY IN SIMILAR CRISES THE CONCEPT OF TENSION GOVERNING IN NATIONS Politicization Coordination and coherence Time Perspectives Good Governance and Leadership in conflict Resolution STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTH SUDAN CRISIS PESTEL ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS Social Cultural (Ethnic) aspect Political Allegiances and Malfeasants in SPLM Socio-economic Feuds KEY PLAYERS IN THE S.SUDAN CRISIS The SPLM leadership Regional Actors International Actors LEADERSHIP STRATEGIES, EFFORTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RETURN TO NORMALCY FOCUS ON CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION (LONG_TERM) SUPPORT FOR PEACE, HEALING, RECONCILIATION AND JUSTICE

3 4.3 FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIATIVES AND PROGRAMMES FOR CONCILIATION STRENGTHENING INSTITUTIONS THAT PROVIDE PUBLIC GOODS AND SERVICES POLICY AND LAW REFORM TO ENTRENCH DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE POST CONFLICT: ADDRESSING LOCAL GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES CONCLUSION

4 1.0 INTRODUCTION Conflict is inherent to all social life and nations. It occurs when an individual or a group feels negatively affected by another individual or group (Wall & Callister 1995). Marquis and Huston (1996) define conflict as the internal discord that results from differences in ideas, values or feelings between two or more people. Fisher (2000) defines destructive conflict _as a social situation in which there are perceived incompatibilities in goals or values between two (or more) parties, attempts by the parties to control one another, and antagonistic feelings towards each other. The African continent continues to experience conflicts that threaten peace and security and consequently hindering the social, economic and political growth and development. This has called for the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) (adopted in July 2002 ) which is built around structures, objectives, principles and values, as well as decision-making processes relating to the prevention, management and resolution of crises and conflicts, post-conflict reconstruction and development in the continent. The APSA embraces a comprehensive agenda for peace and security in Africa that includes: a) Early warning and conflict prevention; b) Peace-making, peace support operations, peace-building and post-conflict reconstruction and development; c) Promotion of democratic practices, good governance and respect for human rights; and d) Humanitarian action and disaster management. 3

5 1.1 BRIEF HISTORY OF SOUTH SUDAN South Sudan came into existence as an independent and sovereign country on the heels of a long and taxing liberation struggle only in The struggle that culminated in her independence is officially recognized as a journey of nearly two hundred years ( ). The struggle for liberation was in two epochs. South Sudan, became Africa`s youngest country as the outcome of a 2005 peace deal that ended Africa's longest-running civil war and culminated into a referendum to secede Khartoum in January NATURE OF THE SOUTH SUDAN PROBLEM, SCOPE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE The young state plunged into crisis in December 2013 amid a power struggle between the president and his deputy whom he had sacked. Fighting between government troops and rebel factions erupted into a conflict that had killed thousands and prompted more than 2.2 million people to flee their homes by the time a tentative internationally-mediated peace agreement was signed in August Background to the South Sudan Crisis In January 2011, a referendum in the South, stipulated by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, resulted in an overwhelming vote in favor of partition. The North and South were supposed to negotiate outstanding issues but failed plunging the country into conflict. At first, the conflict involved clashes along the border region between the northern Sudanese Armed Forces and liberation movements in regions that preferred incorporation into the South. By April 2012 though, the fighting had escalated into war between North and South, with the South s army crossing into the North and the North s military bombing villages across the border. 4

6 1.2.2 Roots of tension Return to Crisis a) The Mekelle Memorandum In June 2010, the CPA parties signed a Memorandum of Understanding in Mekelle, Ethiopia that committed them to a discussion of the post-referendum issues and outlined its modalities. Such talks would be grounded in the peace agreement but not constitute a renegotiation of it. A joint negotiating team was established, with six members from each party. Four clustered working groups were also established: (1) Citizenships, (2) Security, (3) Financial, Economic, and Natural Resources, and (4) International Treaties and Legal Issues to review potential arrangements on each issue and feed in to a joint high-level negotiation team. However, substantive negotiations were limited and there has been little progress to report. Ultimately, confidence-building and addressing the root cause of conflict in the South takes time and action, and cannot be achieved simply through paper contracts, ISPI Working Paper, b) Two countries one revenue source (Resource Curse/Blessing?) Oil has long been one of the central drivers of conflict between the two Sudans. Sudan began exporting crude oil in 1999, and oil flow reached a level of 490,000 barrels per day by 2009, making oil the greatest resource for the unified country. After independence, that conflict was heightened since about 75 percent of Sudan s oil is produced below the border that now separates the two countries, leaving the North with greatly reduced revenues. While dependence on oil has proven to be a serious long-term impediment to both economic development and democratization in most countries, in the short run it represents salvation for poor nations. Sudan is no exception, making oil the most immediate source of conflict. 5

7 c) Border Territory control Another set of conflicts, which has quickly led to violence, involves attempts to control territories along the border between the North and South, in particular, in South Kordofan, the Blue Nile, and Abyei. Meanwhile, both North and South struggle with internal political and tribal conflicts as they try to build states on truncated territory and woefully inadequate institutional foundations. d) Darfur Region conflict The northern population, continues to be displaced and suffer instability as a result of the conflict in Darfur, bears the subjugation of the eastern tribes, and deals with a rising sense of dissatisfaction everywhere as economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Ultimately, Sudan finds itself mired in an intricate web of complex problems. e) Ambiguity in law enforcement The situation is also exacerbated by ambiguity over the separation of powers between the law enforcement organs and the fact that most civilians are armed. The presence and uncontrolled use of firearms by civilians remains a serious concern. The issue of protracted war has brought a culture of violence and proliferation of small arms, which in turn is perpetuating more violence. 1.3 THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE IN CONFLICT Nation to Nation conflict (s) may occur between two individuals (especially leaders of factions), within small groups and work teams, or between communities (De Dreu & Van de Vliert 1997) as is the case in South Sudan above. Conflicts in organizations/nations appear to be associated with organizational/national characteristics, such as goals, values, norms or related to structural aspects such as decentralization, heterogeneity or ambiguity of tasks (Van de Vliert 1998). 6

8 Conflicts in groups and organizations may also be related to power differentials, to competition over scare resources, to tendencies to differentiate rather than converge, to negative interdependence between work units, to ambiguity over responsibility or jurisdiction, or to a denial of one s self-image or char characteristic identifications. Bryant 2003 suggests that there is a constant interplay between conflict and leadership. The presence of personal and emotional tensions conflicts in the organization/ nation is only but one dimension of conflict. How leaders react to problems, resolve crises, reward and punish followers is all relevant to nation`s peace and security. Leaders who are concerned about peace renewal will seek to foster national cultures that are hospitable and conductive to creativity, problem solving, risk taking and inclusivity for all. Their perspectives on power tend to influence their strategies in conflict and enhance people to work together effectively. Empirically, the South Sudan Crisis would require strategic leadership qualities and skills in order to effectively handle the conflict and take nation back to normalcy (O Hearn Woodlti 1987, Fisher 2000). 1.4 ROLE OF LEADERSHIP IN POLICY REFORM FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION Kickert et al (1997, 46) identify three approaches to governance and management in the public sector: the instrumental, interactive and institutional. a) The instrumental approach focuses on how governments seek to exercise legitimate authority by altering dependency relationships. The South Sudan has largely been focused on the economic resources such as oil to alter this relationships. b) The interaction approach stresses management by negotiation instead of hierarchy. The trick is to sit where the other person is sitting to understand their objectives and to build and keep trust between actors. So, negotiators and leaders in conflict must have strong interpersonal, 7

9 communication and listening skills; an ability to persuade; a readiness to trade and to engage in reciprocal rather than manipulative behavior; an ability to construct long-term relationships (Ferlie and Pettigrew 1996, 88-89). The key problem of the interactive approach is the costs of cooperation. Network management is time-consuming, objectives can be blurred, and outcomes can be indefinite Decision making is satisficing, not maximizing. One of the causes of crisis in South Sudan is the seniority management and leadership that has fuelled tensions. c) The institutional approach focuses on the institutional backcloth, the rules and structures, against which the interactions take place. The aim is incremental changes in incentives, rules and culture to promote joint problem solving. The institutional approach has one major, even insurmountable, problem; incentives, rules and culture are notoriously resistant to change because networks privilege a few actors, who equate their sectional interest with the public interest. They are well placed to protect their sectional interests. 2.0 THE INTEGRAL LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE VIEWS FOR RETURN TO NORMALCY IN SIMILAR CRISES To end the crisis, it is strongly recommended that the international community exert pressure on the warring parties (Salva Kiir and Riek Machar).This may take the form of engaging the parties at the highest-level with a unified, unequivocal position. SUDD 2014 special report Qualities of effective leadership found in literature (Kotter, 2009, Schein 2010) can be broadly summarized to include the ability to set direction, create alignment, and maintain commitment. These three leadership tasks roughly correspond with three dimensions articulated by an informal World Bank working group; Vision, Competence, and Integrity. 8

10 Leadership development always takes place within a broader context; the specific challenges faced by leaders in fragile and conflict-affected countries include: vague and shifting leadership expectations, multiple and significant priorities to be addressed, lack of shared perspectives, weak state-society relations, and a culture of mistrust and myopia. 2.1 THE CONCEPT OF TENSION GOVERNING IN NATIONS Politicization Tension governing is almost inherently political, but there are differences in the extent to which government actors emphasize their political commitments versus their reliance on the expertise within the permanent bureaucracy, or other sources of expertise. Some political systems such as the United States (Light, 1995; Peters, 2010) have tended to rely upon political appointments for leadership, and although those appointees may have substantial public management and engagement expertise Coordination and coherence Coordination is always a problem within the emerging nations, given the multiple demands on government and the difficulties in getting numerous large and complex organizations to work together. That said, however, this underlying problem in governing can be exacerbated by the demands of economic crisis. And different political systems will cope with the problem of coordination which often ends up in conflict Time Perspectives Governance of the contemporary conflict issues ought to contextualize the time perspective being taken in the design of the framework of responses (Peace Plan). On the one hand governments and stakeholders might well be, as already noted, expected to focus their collective attention on creating short-term responses to the challenges/crises. Politically the motivation for quick solutions, even if perhaps not the best solutions, is extremely powerful. 9

11 However, the need for visionary approaches and solutions is favored as opposed to quick fixes in conflict resolution Good Governance and Leadership in conflict Resolution Part of the logic of good governance for the past has been to have well-meaning public policy or in other words reforms. Reforms were designed to increase the efficiency of service delivery (Pollitt and Talbot, 2004). That same logic, however, also has tended to divide information and regulatory powers, and therefore limited the capacity to understand and promote good governance. Governing depends heavily upon information and ideas (Braun and Busch, 1999) and if the ideas being used to manage economy and society tend to obscure information rather than to interpret it accurately there will be governance failure. Further, the spread of the neoliberal democracy to a wide range of masses/ publics with less experience in managing complex governance and public policy administration frameworks may have exacerbated the governance problems. 2.2 STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION Strategic leaders foster constructive management of conflict through creative, cost-effective and cooperative (inclusive) problem-solving processes, (Deutsch 2000). The mode of choice, as reflected in the literature, is Collaboration (Non- Confrontation). This means that all parties must compromise as reflected in the true meaning of creating a Win Win solution by openly and freely discussing the issues and sharing views about which there is a disagreement. A research report (ISIPI 2012) suggest that the starting point for South Sudan is the need to address the key nation, state and peace building objectives of a new nation recovering from conflict. 10

12 3.0 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTH SUDAN CRISIS A SUDD 2012 Report acknowledges that the conflict has its roots in political, social, and economic factors. 3.1 PESTEL ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS Social Cultural (Ethnic) aspect Since the outbreak of violence in December 2013, a large section of South Sudanese population was displaced, especially in the Upper Nile region, which covers the states of Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity. The conflict took a brutal ethnic dimension immediately leading to the massacres of unknown number of civilians largely from the Nuer and Dinka nationalities (BBC 2013) Political Allegiances and Malfeasants in SPLM The behavior of the elites in the construction of the new state, coupled with deplorable economic and social conditions, catalyzed the spread of violence. In essence, the allegiances of the elites to the state institutions and to the central tenets of state building have been virtually nonexistent. This paper has explored a number of factors that include power structure within the party, the weak institutional restraints on excessive power in the hands of a few individuals, lack of adherence to the party constitution, and the growing number of factions and power centers within the SPLM. Despite the signing of the CPA and subsequently becoming a ruling party, the SPLM seems to have maintained its pre-cpa politico-military high command hierarchy. This is illustrated in 2005 when restructuring of the SPLM-led national government was done and later when President, Vice and Speaker were appointed in similar circumstances. With the understanding that leadership can only be accessed on the order of wartime seniority, this was a perfect recipe for conflict. 11

13 3.1.3 Socio-economic Feuds The South Sudan liberation history induced ethnic rivalry, disequilibrium in the army, and poor social indicators (SUDD Report, 2012). This caused many internal tensions in SPLM, including the split between the unionists and separatists and the 1991 split two communities emerging after the well-known Bor Massacre. These political feuds were turned ethnic and became a duel of superiority of one ethnic group over the other. 3.2 KEY PLAYERS IN THE S.SUDAN CRISIS The SUDD Report 2012 has suggested that the current conflict is derived from an internal fight within the SPLM primarily over leadership, but it has engulfed the whole country dragging along regional and international players as well. Some of the Key players are as described below: The SPLM leadership The leadership has not addressed: the clamour for party pluralism, internal party democracy, control of territories and a more elaborate party constitution Regional Actors The conflict has attracted regional actors among them such as Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) where member countries, among which Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan are key players. Uganda in particular has provided military support to the government. The intervention of Uganda in the South Sudanese affairs is allegedly informed by personal relationship between Museveni and Kiir as well as the apparent economic interests. This has caused tensions and counteraccusations between Sudan and South Sudan predate the crisis and so it is not really surprising because the two nations do not have any trust towards each other International Actors In terms fueling the conflict, China and the United States are allegedly competing for influence over the government of South Sudan (SUDD Report 2012). Other international actors include: 12

14 United States (U.S) and UN who have played conciliatory and resource mobilization roles interchangeably. 4.0 LEADERSHIP STRATEGIES, EFFORTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RETURN TO NORMALCY Despite the international community and regional efforts, significant hurdles remain before peace in South Sudan can be assured. The researcher suggests the below mentioned leadership strategies for any future peace agreements and programmes between the South Sudanese government and dissident elements. The strategies and efforts are long-term, visionary, focused on the growth of the Nation of South Sudan. 4.1 FOCUS ON CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION (LONG_TERM) Conflict transformation is the deepest level of the conflict resolution tradition, rather than as a separate venture, as some would prefer (Väyrynen, 1991; Rupesinghe, 1995; Jabri, 1996; Francis, 2002; Lederach, 2003). For instance the leadership of South Sudan and regional actors should be focused on building relationships among the warring factions (relationship- centred). The researcher shares the believe that to regain coherence in the South Sudan, the conflict resolvers and conflict transformers should are essentially engage in the same enterprise (Dukes s Resolving Public Conflict: Transforming Community and Governance (1996). 4.2 SUPPORT FOR PEACE, HEALING, RECONCILIATION AND JUSTICE The South Sudan national fabric as discussed in the previous sections is torn and its social glue is debased. All political settlements should be succeeded by the process of national healing forthwith. 13

15 There is also a need to support the current international debates on peace and security, as a core pillar for effective conflict management, peace building and post conflict State building. 4.3 FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIATIVES AND PROGRAMMES FOR CONCILIATION Financial support is very critical to implement the initiatives such as return home of refugees, retraction of land and resettlement of the people among others. Finding adequate resources for addressing local and national government needs, as part of early recovery interventions, is particularly challenging, as is the case for all development programming in the immediate aftermath of conflict. 4.4 STRENGTHENING INSTITUTIONS THAT PROVIDE PUBLIC GOODS AND SERVICES While humanitarian needs are urgent and should be the immediate priority of South Sudan the researcher recommends that development partners continue to support its development projects. This is part of peace building process and it sends a clear message to those communities that peace or stability is rewarded with development and strong institutions. 4.5 POLICY AND LAW REFORM TO ENTRENCH DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE The South Sudan Crisis can be addressed by reforming the national policies to allow for pluralism, freedom of expression and wide access to justice systems. This will facilitate the election of visionary leadership that is concerned about the welfare of the people of South Sudan. 4.6 POST CONFLICT: ADDRESSING LOCAL GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES There is need to foster effective local governance mechanisms post the conflict to forestall similar occurrences. Some of the strategies of achieving this include: 14

16 4.6.1 Decentralization and or devolution can shift the onus from conflict to negotiations and bargaining which demilitarizes volatile, conflict situations while extending State authority in contested areas in South Sudan Adapting local governance arrangements can address the roots causes of conflicts (e.g. limited local development or high levels of poverty) and assist the consolidation of peace, stability and cohesion (such as was case in Macedonia, Nepal); During the transition and reconstruction process, a decentralized presence is a means for the state to reach local populations increase its visibility and credibility and thus establish its legitimacy at the local level, through the deployment of civil servants10, more focused service Delivery, the re distribution of resources, more efficient communication exchange, and better maintenance of order and security New local governance arrangements can give voice to the local population, and enhance their participation in the reconstruction and peace building efforts and thus alleviating tensions based on social exclusion, polarization and regional disparities that are often at the origin of conflicts and hence, allowing for the building of trust that is needed in a multi stakeholder postconflict state. 15

17 5.0 CONCLUSION The state of war between North and South Sudan, the inability of the two sides to resolve the oil transit issue, and the incapacity of both states to bring security to their own territories, the mistrust in leadership and communities are a sad outcome of years of negotiations, mediation, and agreements that sought to help Sudan, whether as a single or divided entity, find a degree of stability. The current crisis and its implications on the region remains wanting, hence the dire need for deliberate attempts through decisive leadership and focus on solutions rather than the diversities and conflict fires. This paper has given the genesis of the problem and some of the effective strategic leadership strategies that could potentially with collective support from stakeholders support a RETURN TO PEACE in the youngest African Nation. 16

18 REFERENCES References Federal Democracy: A Strategic Choice for South Sudan, Sudd Institute, March institutionalchoice- for-south-sudan/ The Search for Lasting Peace and Ending South Sudan s Devastating Conflict, Sudd Institute February The Unwarranted Carnage in South Sudan, Sudd Institute, February South Sudan and the Prospects for Peace amidst Violent Political Wrangling, The Sudd Institute January SPLM s Internal Politics: A Catalyst to the Dissolution of Government, The Sudd Institute, and October The SPLM Leadership Contest: An Opportunity for Change or a Crisis of Governance? The Sudd Institute, July