Driving Change and Opportunity through Strategic Influencing

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1 Driving Change and Opportunity through Strategic Influencing Nick Mabey, E3G March 2014

2 Background E3G Non-profit, public interest European organisation with a global scope Founded in 2005 with mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable development Carries out coalition building, advice and institutional design working across energy, environment, security, diplomatic and economic sectors My Background UK Prime Ministers Strategy Unit: Energy, Climate Change, Security Policy FCO Environment Policy Department WWF, London Business School and MIT, PowerGen March 2014 E3G 2

3 Four Core Points Many innovative business model and social solutions require public policy changes and /or institutional change to succeed Usually barriers to change are not primarily economic, technical or analytical but political and institutional Businesses and social entrepreneurs rarely direct sufficient energy and professionalism to creating the external conditions for growth and success. Poor cousin of internal management. We can use change and influencing tools approaches to accelerate and better direct change but this is as much about new skills as it is about new analysis March 2014 E3G 3

4 The Reality of Decision Making? There is nothing a government hates more than to be well-informed; for it makes the process of arriving at decisions much more complicated and difficult John Maynard Keynes March 2014 E3G 4

Change is a messy, complex and uncomfortable process. A reactive stance often makes sense. Pandolfo Petrucci, Lord of Siena, to Machiavelli (Florence, c.

5 Change is a messy, complex and uncomfortable process. A reactive stance often makes sense. Pandolfo Petrucci, Lord of Siena, to Machiavelli (Florence, c. 1515): wishing to make as few mistakes as possible I conduct my government day by day and arrange my affairs hour by hour; because the times are more powerful than our brains Need to understand the real constraints on decision makers not just assume they lack political will March 2014 E3G 5

6 Prescriptions put forward to address complex issues are often seen as unrealistic by decision makers Coherence Long term approaches Managing uncertainty Systematic approaches Sustainable Development Ideal All policy should be integrated and coherent, both domestically and internationally Policy should take a long term and preventative view and not just focus on short term reactive responses Policies should consider the full range of possible uncertainties Polices should be designed in a systematic manner embracing and controlling all parts of the problem Practical Policy Makers View We have enough problems agreeing what to do internally without involving anybody else who will just obstruct action We are overstretched just keeping day-to-day operations afloat, planning over the next budget period and reacting to events. More uncertainty is unhelpful and complicates decision making. What am I meant to do with it? Systematic proposals are overcomplicated and can never be implemented in the real world March 2014 E3G 6

7 Building a compelling case for change requires a why, what and how Why? What? How? Building the case for action What action is needed? How should organisations respond? All elements needed to deliver real action balance of influence depends on issue and context March 2014 E3G 7

8 Strategic Influencing (I) Objectives What? Change What? How? When? Influence Who? How? When? How can we drive change? March 2014 E3G 8

9 Mechanics of Influencing Visibility and Framing = Attention Facts + Trust + Legitimacy = Consent Interests + Consent = Action/Change March 2014 E3G 9

10 From interventions to institutions Fragmented Decision Landscape Strategic Outcomes Institution Building Coalition Building Tunnelling Through Convergent Policy Making March 2014 E3G 10

11 Doing the policy and politics together Design the Politics. Bringing all necessary decision-makers together Focussing and framing choices Defining decision points and opportunities Building and animating winning coalitions With the Policy Research and analysis Designing policy and institutional solutions Assembling necessary resources The right people, in the right place, at the right time with the right choices in the right context March 2014 E3G 11

12 E3G Strategic Change Framework Map Politics Coalitions/Animation/Frames Strategic Outcome Propositions Decisions Generate Policy Options Policies/Tools/Institutions March 2014 E3G 12

13 Requires 5 core Competencies 1. Strategic Thinking 2. Coalition Building and Animating 3. Thought Leadership, Agenda Setting and Framing 4. Organisational Change and Institution Building 5. Policy, Tool and Knowledge Development March 2014 E3G 13

14 Competencies in the Change Framework 2. Building Map and Politics Animating Coalitions/Animation/Change 3. Thought Leadership, Agenda Setting, and Framing Desired Outcome 1. Strategic Thinking Propositions Decisions 4. Facilitating Organisational Change and Institution Building 5. Generate Generating Policy Policies, Options Tools Policies/Tools/Methods and March 2014 E3G 14

15 The Challenge of Low Carbon Transition Need to shift investment focus on a huge scale; UK 1 trillion to 2030 High levels of political risk and price volatility (oil/carbon/technology) Much investment needed in new markets and business models e.g. energy services/efficiency; forest protection; smart and super grids Market and technology often both at early stage so unattractive investment area for private capital Financial crisis has lowered ability of utilities to fund change Response from many private investors is to not to invest March 2014 E3G 15

16 Financial Logic of Govt Intervention Increase the Risk/Reward ratio for high carbon investment and decrease it for low carbon investment High Carbon Investment: Reward driven by oil price; risk only increases due to future impact of carbon policy on asset returns. Low Carbon Investment Reward driven by carbon price, subsidies, feed-in tariffs etc Risk can be lowered by: regulation and locking-in policy; direct intervention on carbon/clean energy price, public investment and/or govt risk guarantees A solely reward-focused strategy may not deliver and pays extra-profits for (mis)perceptions of political risk March 2014 E3G 16

17 UK Green Investment Bank Independent, government financed bank for delivering low carbon transition Four main functions: Provider of new funds for low carbon investment via Green Bonds An aggregator of low carbon projects for bond financing; De-risking project finance (guarantees; debt finance); Advisor to government on financeable policy design; Capitalisation of 6-10 billion to leverage billion investment March 2014 E3G 17

18 GIB Change Process Political engagement with Govt and main parties Conservative support Party Manifestos Multiple Industry Voices Transform-UK Coalition Delivery of necessary UK low carbon investment Green Stimulus Green Bonds GIB In Principle May 10 3bn capital 2011 First deals 2012 Multi-stakeholder Green Recovery group GIB Commission Institutional analysis Consultation with banks EE financing analysis March 2014 E3G 18

19 Winning Energy Efficiency in the UK: The final push E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 19

20 The challenge ahead The Ask The UK Government to pledge revenues from carbon trading and tax to deliver a scaled energy efficiency programme E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 20

21 Energy Bill Revolution Need Big Tent Coalition Resolve Fuel Poverty vs Environment Split Cross sector coalition Activist base MP mobilisation Make all of UK housing stock super-energy effcient Recycle carbon tax to UK insulation programme Party Manifesto Pledges 2014 Feasibility Study Financing Study EE as infrastructure Detailed mechanisms design March 2014 E3G 21

22 The prize 64 Billion The world s biggest energy efficiency programme for homes

23 The impact Quadrupled carbon savings Generation of 120K-200K jobs 9 million households brought out of fuel poverty

24 Biggest Fuel Poverty Alliance Ever Created

25 Generate and sustain media interest National front page Local coverage extensive E3G - Third Generation 25 Environmentalism

26 Generate and sustain Parliamentary support 240 MPs have signed an Early Day Motion in support of the Energy Bill Revolution This needs to be expanded and translated into Manifesto commitments ahead of the 2015 General Election Progress is good.. but we have a long way still to go.

27 The revolution: activating the alliance Activism target 200,000 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 27

28 Simplicity not Simplistic I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity. However, I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity Oliver Wendell Holmes March 2014 E3G 28

29 Produce Compelling Propositions Most propositions fail to meet test of: Credibility: will it really make a difference? Delivery: can we actually make this happen? Desirability: Do the costs and benefits (including politics) add up? March 2014 E3G 29

30 Use creative ways to break out of stuck policy conversations Reframing the problem to bring in new constituencies: Building an EU super grid will allow all of Europe s low carbon resources to be used efficiently We cannot deliver sustainable energy security by undermining other countries climate security Looking to the longer term: Our climate policy needs to develop the technology options needed beyond 2020 and the grid infrastructures to use them Fossil energy prices will continue to rise making UK housing stock efficient is a critical infrastructure investment for UK security and competiveness Bundling multiple policy benefits: The GIB can support growth and jobs in the UK regions through the economic recovery March 2014 E3G 30

31 It ain t what we do it s the way that we do it and that s what gets results Fun Boy Three, 1981 March 2014 E3G 31

32 Key Objectives What? Importance/Change Analysis Brainstorm key objectives Map onto axes Change/Importance Group key clusters of objectives Use as input to Objectives/Hypothesis Tree Easy to Change Least Important Most Important March 2009 Hard to Change E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 32

33 What type of Outcome? Agree Agreement Full agreement with course of action Partnership Active collaboration in reaching outcome Acceptance Passive willingness not to block action may still disagree Alignment Some commonality on objectives/strategy but disagreements over tactics Accept March 2009 Passive E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism Active 33

34 Influence Mapping (I) Who & How? Purpose Inputs Outputs Context Mapping chains of influence on organisations/decisions Target decision/organisation Detailed knowledge of context Visual map of formal and informal links between key actors Team view of influencing environment Gap analysis and first prioritisation of influencing pathways Ideally with implementing team March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 34

35 Key Stakeholders Who? Importance/Change Analysis Brainstorm key stakeholders Map onto axes such as Change/Importance Easy to Change Least Important Most Important Hard to Change March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 35

36 Mapping Example: Energy Review Climate Scientists (Exeter Papers etc) Energy Companies (Eon; RWE etc) Pro- New Nuclear Unison Tories? UKBCSE Accelerate RE and EE Public Opinion? Foreign Policy Centre Pro-RE Academics (SPRU/SEG; Imperial; ERC) Walt Paterson Catherine Mitchell ENGOs (Foe; GP; WWF; WEN) Libdems Unions (GMB; TGWU; Amicus; Prospect) Commentators Simon Jenkins etc March 2009 CBI Pro-Nuclear Academics (RAE; Ian Fells; Dieter Helm; MIT) OXERA City Analysts Status Quo RE and EE E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism Anti- New Nuclear 36

37 Influence Mapping How? Technique 1. Identify key decision maker/organisation place in centre of flip chart 2. Brainstorm other key actors write on Post-Its and place/write on flip chart 3. Join actors using formal (solid) and informal (dotted) influencing lines 4. Identify contextual/environmental actors outside decision-making structures 5. Identify priority influencing chains and gaps knowledge/ influencing impact in March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 37

38 Example: UK Nuclear Decision Electric Utilities Banks/Analysts DTI Malcolm Wicks Alan Johnson Energy Review Team Brian Wilson Sir Nigel Shienwald Kim Darroch CX Shriti Vadera Mike Jacobs No 10 PM Geoffrey Norris Matthew Taylor Ivan Rogers Peter Hain Wales and NI Sir David King Energy and Environment Committee John Prescott Margaret Beckett Jack Straw Labour Backbenchers Alistair Darling (Transport and Scotland) Scottish Parties March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 38

39 Policy Funnel: When, What & How? Purpose Identifying timeline, modes and campaign priorities for influencing an organisation or decision Inputs Detailed knowledge of decision context including from influence mapping Outputs Map of possible modes of potential influencing and timeline Set of possible interventions Prioritisation/allocation of interventions Context Ideally with implementing team March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 39

40 Option Space Understanding the Decision Process: The Policy Funnel General Opinion Public Debate Policy Process Final Decision Concepts/ Research Questions /Framing Solutions/ Problems Threats/ Offers Who s Reputation? March 2009 What Coalition? Which Champion? E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism What Access & Levers? 40

41 Thank You I can be contacted at nick.mabey@e3g.org Materials can be found at March 2014 E3G 41

That is why an organisation like Green Alliance is so important - harnessing the power of civil society and channelling towards those in office.

That is why an organisation like Green Alliance is so important - harnessing the power of civil society and channelling towards those in office. Laurence Tubiana speech @ Green Alliance Thank you for that warm introduction Shaun, and can I say it is wonderful to be among so many friendly faces, so many leaders, so many people who have given so