Manchester after the riots: almost one year on from last summer s riots, communities call for unity and for the government to show it cares.

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1 March 2012 Issue 1 Manchester after the riots: almost one year on from last summer s riots, communities call for unity and for the government to show it cares. Community groups, leading council figures, the police and members of the public have come together to discuss the riots that swept through the city last year. Under the banner of Manchester Community Conversation, Amina Lone of the Social Action & Research Foundation (SARF) chaired the discussion, inviting the public to speak of their experiences of the riots, express their concerns and desires for going forward, and to put their questions to the community, council and police representatives present. In a full, frank, yet calm and measured conversation, the meeting heard firsthand accounts of frightful moments when the rioting broke out, inspirational stories of how people responded the following day to clean up the riot damage from the night before, and of the lessons the city has learned from the experience. The Manchester Community Conversation was convened by SARF in partnership with the London School of Economics (LSE) and the Guardian to fill the gap left by the government s decision not to hold a public inquiry into the riots. When a similar spate of rioting occurred in 1981, Lord Scarman headed a public inquiry to investigate the causes of the riots. The subsequent Scarman Report produced a variety of initiatives that sought to avoid further outbreaks of rioting in the future, such as tackling racial tensions by making a concerted effort to recruit more ethnic minorities into the police force. In addition to the lack of a public inquiry following the 2011 riots, SARF s Dan Silver also pointed to discernible geographical disparities in the way that the riots developed. current government policies are rooted in a reality that few northern people recognise Silver argued that a lack of northern representatives in the government combined with the disproportionate adverse effects that the recession and austerity measures are having upon the North of England means that current government policies are rooted in a reality that few northern people recognise.

2 Silver explained that although the behaviour of the rioters is not to be condoned, the voice of northern communities deserves to be heard. Therefore, SARF have worked with the LSE and the Guardian to hold the Manchester Community Conversation. The conversation proved suitably in-depth, covering a wide range of concerns and issues regarding the 2011 Manchester riots, and produced some healthy consensuses. Whilst all of those present held various perspectives as to the cause of the riots, there was a consensus that the government s response has been inadequate. Whether the riots were blatant criminality, the consequence of disenfranchising our youth, poverty, unemployment, or a combination of any or all of these factors, it was the feeling of the Manchester Community Conversation that the issues underpinning the riots must be investigated further; that the 1981 Scarman Report produced various initiatives, some that were successful, others not so. Nevertheless, the very fact that the government responded to the 1981 riots by launching a public inquiry sent out a message that the government was listening. it was far too easy to blame delinquent youths, police or politicians for all our problems Further consensus was reached over the need to avoid falling into a culture of blame. The overwhelming view of the Manchester Community Conversation was that fingerpointing was knee-jerk and self-defeating. Also, that it was far too easy to blame delinquent youths, police or politicians for all our problems. Rather It was felt that all of us, as a community, have to take responsibility and ask ourselves what we can do to make Manchester a better and more inclusive place to live. Communication was another recurring theme of the conversation. It was pointed out that we simply do not speak and socialise with one another, which leads to disconnect between young people and older people, families and schools, communities and police, and people of different socioeconomic backgrounds. Although responses to the riots, such as the clean-up the following day and the I heart Manchester campaign were very positive and well received, the Manchester Community Conversation did raise concerns that we may not be as strong a community as we would like to think. In the light of recent debates questioning the sustainability and viability of a genuine multi-cultural society, it was most interesting that racial tensions were not raised Finally, and in sharp contrast to some of the key findings of the 1981 Scarman report, none of those attending the Manchester Community Conversation cited racial tensions as possible causes of the riots. In the light of recent debates questioning the sustainability and viability of a genuine multicultural society, it was most interesting that racial tensions were not raised. And for those of us who hold fast to the conviction that only a genuinely multi-cultural and multi-ethnic society can provide the enormous health, wealth and benefits that Manchester enjoys, that no one believed racial tensions to be a cause of the riots was most encouraging. 2

3 Challenges and Chances: Greater Manchester s 2012 Economic Forecast shows tough times set to continue, but opportunities beckon. The 2012 Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) warns of clear challenges ahead, but it is not all doom and gloom as it also highlights opportunities for growth across the region. GMFM is a cutting edge economic forecasting model that has been developed by Oxford Economics in partnership with the Commission for the New Economy. According to Neil Gibson of Oxford Economics, GMFM took more than five years to develop and Greater Manchester is one of the few places in the world that approaches economic planning in this systematic way. At a seminar hosted by New Economy, Gibson and his colleague Alan Wilson made two presentations. The first was given by Wilson and concentrated on the UK economy, with Gibson following up with a presentation on Greater Manchester. What is the current economic condition of the UK? Wilson put the UK s economy into context with that of Europe and the world, as UK developments are closely tied to what is happening globally. In the European Union (EU) the financial crisis is far from resolved and world GDP is forecast to remain around the 3% mark between now and This amounts to another downturn, but not necessarily a further recession. In the UK, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to continue dropping from its current low position of just over 1%. At the same time, inflation is expected to keep on rising. Further, output per job is down from 12,500 to 10,500. Whilst the trend is now moving upwards again, this will take some time to create more jobs. Also, there is a huge gap between what output currently stands at and what it would have been had there not been a recession. Consumer spending in the UK is down, and so too are wages in real terms. Additionally, household disposable incomes are down for the first time in 30 years. Finally, unemployment is growing and house prices are flat-lining at best, putting additional pressure on household disposable income. Therefore, whilst consumer spending is expected to go up slightly, it will not be returning to pre-recession levels. Can the private sector fill the void left by public sector job losses? For the time being, private sector job creation is matching public sector job losses. However, without knowing just how many public sector jobs will be lost in the future, it is impossible to say whether the private sector can continue to absorb public sector 3

4 job losses. Similarly, private sector job creation is dependent upon growth in the economy, which is not forecast to be great. Despite private sector job creation unemployment continues to rise, partially because there are not enough new jobs being created to accommodate the growing demand for employment. Another reason is that welfare reforms (i.e. changes to disability assessments) have put more people on to the employment register who would have previously been classed as economically inactive. Wilson reminded the seminar that public sector job losses are already far higher than anticipated, and that there will be high unemployment for years to come. The sector where employment is likely to grow, however, is business services and those primarily concerned with export and communications. Geographically, London will be the main beneficiary of these developments, but not exclusively. However, according to the forecast, in the North West it may take as long as a decade for employment to return to its pre-recession peak. What is the forecast for Greater Manchester? Gibson explained that whilst 7% of Greater Manchester s total working age population is unemployed, a further 26% are economically inactive. This makes a total of 559,000 people who are economically inactive in Greater Manchester out of a total working age population of 1.7 million. A quarter of Greater Manchester s employment is made up by Manchester, but unemployment is on the rise in all 10 boroughs. Despite rising unemployment, the area s population is growing, partially due to an increase in inward migration. Population statistics show spikes in university cities and towns, although it is not clear if the numbers of international students who leave are being counted as well as those who arrive. Regardless of this, however, the city is still a major draw for many people. Not only is Greater Manchester s population growing, but the economy is too, and especially when one compares the forecast for Greater Manchester to the rest of the North West (excluding Cheshire). Generally speaking, economic growth needs to be above 2% in order to create jobs. In light of this, growth in Greater Manchester is much too low at the moment, but is forecast to rise back to an acceptable level in the period between 2012 and In line with the national picture, Greater Manchester will also experience most of its job growth in the business services sector. The growth in business services can be largely explained by the outsourcing of human resources and manufacturing departments by the public and manufacturing sectors. Effectively, these are job transfers as opposed to job creation. Health is also forecast to drive job creation simply because of rising demand due to an aging population. 4

5 Gibson acknowledged that the overwhelming tone of the forecast was gloomy. However, he offered some optimism by pointing out that as far as Greater Manchester was concerned, Manchester, Stockport and Trafford have good recovery potential. In the Economic Potential Index league table, Manchester is ranked at number 82 out of 401 places. Although Manchester ranks high on the index of potential economic recovery, Gibson warned that there is no reason for complacency as, due to a combination of factors, youth unemployment is at record levels across all districts. Amongst the potential effects of such high unemployment levels are feelings of disenfranchisement. If this subsequently leads to public disorder, similar to that witnessed during the recent riots in Manchester and Salford, it will not serve as a good advertisement for Manchester and Salford as being desirable places to either live or invest in. According to Gibson, in August % of Greater Manchester s unemployed population were seeking elementary jobs, 7% were seeking process, plant and machinery jobs, and 28% were seeking sales, customer service and personal service jobs. Therefore, if we want growth in the high-skill/high-pay sector, we must address the question as to how do we find employment for the large numbers of people seeking low-skilled work. Therefore, Gibson reminded the seminar to look beyond the more fashionable areas of potential employment, such as new technologies, and to remind ourselves of the resources that Greater Manchester has and what world markets want. For example, the price of agricultural products, textiles, and coal are rising. Therefore, there is scope for investment in a wide range of areas. Gibson reminded the seminar that China is a huge importer as well as exporter. Therefore, Greater Manchester should be teaching its workforce Chinese language skills as financial and business services companies will go to areas that have a good skills base. Gibson also reminded the seminar that cities such as Manchester figure low in terms of enterprise due to the fact that there are other major sources of employment available. In addition to this, we must acknowledge that not everyone wants to go into business, and that many people prefer to be an employee. Nevertheless, according to Gibson, there is a strong decade of improvement coming up in self-employment. Therefore, support for business development will be necessary. With regard to spending cuts, Gibson recommended that both central and local governments consider pruning rather than cutting. And if cuts must be made, then they should be done collaboratively to ensure that services are maintained and to prevent crucial skills and resources from being lost. For example, rather than every Greater Manchester university losing their Humanities departments, strategic decisions should be made to ensure that at least one top class Humanities department remains at a university in Greater Manchester. Gibson asked the seminar to look again at what makes our communities work: at what makes up the economic fabric of our communities, and what our specialisms are, as the results of such reflection can be surprising. For example: in Bolton the second largest activity after call centres is the manufacture of bakery and farinaceous products; Rochdale s largest activity is the 5

6 manufacture of textiles; Stockport s biggest activity is the manufacture of gas; and Wigan s two leading activities are processing and preserving of fruits and vegetables together with the manufacture of other food products. Taking these factors into account, Gibson called upon the seminar to tailor economic strategies to each area s strengths and weaknesses. In the final plenary session, several issues were raised including local business rates and the raising of the retirement age. Will local business rates help? Local business rates do offer a great potential for economic recovery. However, if the local business rate favours retail over other sectors, the temptation may be to build large units to reap land rate revenue. This could potentially push out existing employers. Therefore, when formulating a strategy based on local business rates, it must be remembered to focus on what an area actually needs rather than seizing the chance for a quick return on business rates. Will raising the retirement age help? The raising of the retirement age will impact in many ways, one of which will be to hinder youth employment. As people continue to work for longer, and if new jobs fail to materialise, youth will have a further wait for vacancies to appear. immune to either. However, despite the challenging economic climate, GMFM shows that Greater Manchester is in a strong position to blunt the most acute effects of the recession whilst capitalising upon a unique set of opportunities in both traditional and modern employment sectors. A full set of slides from both Wilson s and Gibson s presentations can be downloaded from the New Economy website at: gmfm_seminar_2011 ESI 2012 Diary 5 Apr Get Connected: Form supply chains with other organisations to win new contracts. Details: Neil Walbran (GMCVO) Apr Monitoring & Evaluation: skills and techniques that could be used for both new and existing projects. Details: Sue Barrett (GMCVO) May Project Management Course: three day workshop designed for those who manage projects, or those who are about to become involved in the management, planning or implementation of a project. Details: Sue Barrett (GMCVO) May Tackling Broken Britain: building a stronger community. Details: Katie Tweats, (Public Service Events) In conclusion, both the UK and world economic forecasts are challenging ones, and Greater Manchester is obviously not 6

7 ESI Building Economic and Social Inclusion ESI is the Economic and Social Inclusion Network, which brings together Greater Manchester s voluntary and community sector (VCS) organisations, plus friendly individuals and groups, who work towards building economic and social inclusion in the region. Since its creation in 2011, ESI has grown and now boasts 216 members. Since the New Year, ESI has delivered 12 weekly updates to it members, providing the very latest information on consortia working, contracting and funding opportunities, public policy developments, events, training and lots more. ESI News is the bi-monthly newsletter of the network, and features more in-depth articles on key issues regarding economic and social inclusion. The next phase of ESI s work will be to create an Economic and Social Inclusion Task Group from amongst its members. The ESI Task Group will provide for greater ownership of the project by its members, and undertake projects towards building economic and social inclusion in Greater Manchester. ESI is free to join and provides an opportunity for information sharing, as well as participation in consultation, research and the chance to influence social and economic policy across Greater Manchester. For more information, or to join the ESI mailing list, please contact: Andy Rawling, Policy and Partnerships Officer, , andy.rawling@gmcvo.org.uk. 7