Transcription

1 EXHIBIT 4

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 APPENDIX A

13 Jonathan Nagler; October, Jonathan Nagler Personal Information Office Address: Electronic Address : 19 W. Fourth Street, 2nd floor Voice: (212) Department of Politics Fax: (212) New York University jonathan.nagler@nyu.edu New York, NY Education Ph.D., California Institute of Technology, Social Science, Dissertation: Strategic Opportunities Provided by the Conference Committee Procedure in the U.S. Congress. Committee Chair: Rod Kiewiet. M.S., California Institute of Technology, A.B., Harvard University, Government, Positions Held Spring, 2005 Visiting Associate, California Institute of Technology. Fall, Professor, Department of Politics, New York University. Fall, Director of Graduate Studies, Department of Politics, New York University. Fall, Summer Associate Chair, Department of Politics, New York University. Fall, Summer Acting Chair, Department of Politics, New York University. Fall, Associate Professor, Department of Politics, New York University. Spring, 2000 Visiting Associate Professor, Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology Visiting Associate Professor of Government, Harvard University Lecturer, Summer Program, Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan Lecturer, Summer Program, European Consortium for Political Research, Essex University, England Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California, Riverside. Fall, 1995 Visiting Associate Professor, Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California, Riverside Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University Instructor, Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University Teaching Assistant, Department of Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology.

14 Jonathan Nagler; October, Research Fields Campaigns and Elections Political Behavior Econometrics Courses Taught Campaigns and Elections: graduate course, New York University. Quantitative Political Analysis: graduate course, New York University, University of California, Riverside, Harvard University, and Texas A&M. Seminar: Elections and Campaign Spending, undergraduate course, New York University. Economic and Issue Voting: graduate course, University of California, Riverside, Harvard University. Advanced Regression Analysis: graduate course, University of California, Riverside. Models of Discrete Choice: graduate course, Essex Summer School. Advanced Topics in Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Linear Models, ICPSR Summer Program. (one of four instructors) American Political Institutions: graduate course, University of California, Riverside. Parties, PACs, and Campaigns: upper division undergraduate course, University of California, Riverside. Congressional Elections: upper division undergraduate course, California Insititute of Technology. Congressional Politics: upper division undergraduate course, Texas A&M. Introduction to American Government, University of California, Riverside, and Texas A&M. Politics and Economic Policy: upper division undergraduate course, University of California, Riverside. Grants National Science Foundation Grant for Support for Conferences in Political Methodology. (Co- PI) Award from NSF: $99,960. June, National Science Foundation Grant for The Effect of Changes in Wages on Economic Perceptions and Voting: An Improved Micro-Level Foundation for Economic Voting. Award from NSF: $69,600. May, National Science Foundation grant for Issues and Economics in MultiParty Democracies. Award from NSF: $90,000. April, National Science Foundation grant for Computing Infrastructure (Co-PI). Award from NSF: $138,000. Approximately $425,000 matching funds over five years from UCR Estimating the Heterogeneity of Individuals and Candidates in Elections: Sensitivity to Campaign Effects, University of California Faculty Fellowship, $1600, April, 1993.

15 Jonathan Nagler; October, Testing the Symmetry Assumptions of Non-Linear Models: Alternative Specifications to Logit and Probit for Dichotomous Dependent Variables, Texas A&M University Supercomputing Center, $31,000, September, Turnout in American National Elections, Texas A&M University Supercomputer Center, $100,000, September, (with Jan E. Leighley) Publications Journal Articles The Hispanic Vote in the 2004 Presidential Elections: Insecurity and Moral Concerns, Journal of Politics, 2008, Vol 70(2): (with Marisa A. Abrajano and R. Michael Alvarz). Protected from Politics: Diminishing Margins of Electoral Competition in U.S. Congressional Elections, Ohio State Law Journal, 2007, 68(4): (with Samuel Issacharoff). Unions and Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, ,, Journal of Politics, 2007, 69: (with Jan E. Leighley). Strategic Voting in British Elections, Electoral Studies, 2006, 25:1 19. (with R. Michael Alvarez and Frederick J. Boehmke) A Natural Experiment of Race-Based and Issue Voting: The 2001 City of Los Angeles Elections, Political Research Quarterly, 2005, 58: (with Marisa A. Abrajano and R. Michael Alvarez) Latinos, Anglos, Voters, Candidates, and Voting Rights, University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 2004, 153: (with R. Michael Alvarez) Party System Compactness: Measurement and Consequences, Political Analysis, (2004), 12: (with R. Michael Alvarez) The Likely Consequences of Internet Voting for Political Representation, Loyola Law Review, (2001) 34: (with R. Michael Alvarez) Issues, Economics and the Dynamics of Multi-Party Elections: The British 1987 General Election, American Political Science Review, (2000) 94: (with R. Michael Alvarez and Shaun Bowler) A New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections, British Journal of Political Science, (2000) 30: (with R. Michael Alvarez) Measuring the Relative Impact of Issues and the Economy in Democratic Elections, Electoral Studies, (2000) 19: (with R. Michael Alvarez and Jennifer Willette)

16 Jonathan Nagler; October, Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election, American Journal of Political Science, (1998) 42: (with R. Michael Alvarez) Explaining the Gender Gap in U.S. Presidential Elections, , Political Research Quarterly, (1998) 51: (with Carole Kennedy and R. Michael Alvarez) When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multi-Party Elections, American Journal of Political Science, (1998) 42: (with R. Michael Alvarez) Economics, Issues, and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Election, American Journal of Political Science, (1995) 39: (with R. Michael Alvarez) Scobit: An Alternative Estimator to Logit and Probit, American Journal of Political Science, (1994) 38: Socioeconomic Class Bias in Turnout, : The Voters Remain the Same, American Political Science Review, (1992) 86: (with Jan Leighley) Individual and Systemic Influences on Turnout: Who Votes? 1984, Journal of Politics, (1992) 54: (with Jan Leighley) Presidential Campaign Expenditures: Evidence on Allocations and Effect, Public Choice, (1992) 73: (with Jan Leighley) The Effect of Registration Laws and Education on U.S. Voter Turnout, American Political Science Review, (1991) 85: Information and Elite Opinions on the Strategic Defense Initiative, Social Science Quarterly, (1990) 71: Strategic Implications of Conferee Selection in the House of Representatives: It Ain t Over Till it s Over, American Politics Quarterly, Vol. 17, No. 1, January, Book Reviews, Chapters and other Publications and Reports Election Day Voter Registration in Iowa, A Demos Briefing Paper, March (with R. Michael Alvarez). Mobilizing Institutions and Class Bias in U.S. Electoral Politics, (with Jan E. Leighley), forthcoming in Mobilizing Democracy: A Comparative Perspective on Institutional Barriers an Political Obstacles, Margaret Levi, James Johnson, Jack Knight and Susan Stokes, eds., Russell Sage Foundation, forthcoming. Likely Effects of Adoption of Election Day Registration in Connecticut, expert witness report prepared for ACORN, et al., v. Bysiewicz, November, Making Voting Easier: Election Day Registration in New York, report prepared for Demos, April,

17 Jonathan Nagler; October, (with R. Michael Alvarez and Catherine H. Wilson). Root Mean Square Error, in Encylopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Sage Press, Specification, in Encylopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Sage Press, Should I Stay Or Should I Go? Sincere and Strategic Crossover Voting in California Assembly Races, in California s Open/Blanket Primary: A Natural Experiment in Election Dynamics, Cain, Bruce E. and Elisabeth R. Gerber, eds. University of California Press, (with R. Michael Alvarez) California and the Blanket Primary, monograph prepared for the Secretary of State of California, May, pages. (with R. Michael Alvarez) Economic Conditions and Presidential Elections (with Jennifer R. Willette), Institut de Ciències Politiques i Socials, Working Paper Number 171, Barcelona, Spain, Review of Statistical Computing Environments for Social Research, Stine, Robert and John Fox (editors), Sage Press, 1997, The American Statistician, Vol 52, No 2, May, Pages Analysis of Crossover and Strategic Voting, expert witness report prepared for California Party v. Bill Jones, June, pages. (with R. Michael Alvarez) Coding Style and Good Computing Practices, PS: Political Science & Politics, September, Volume 28, No 3. Pages Coding Style and Good Computing Practices, The Political Methodologist, Spring, Volume 6, No 2. Pages 2-9. Review of Bicameral Politics, Longley, Lawrence D. and Walter J. Oleszek, Yale University Press, 1989, Journal of Politics, Vol 52, No. 4, November, Knowledge and Opinion: Caltech Poll on Defense Issues, Pugwatch, Spring, Recent Conference Papers and Manuscripts Alienation, Indifference and Inequality, (with Jan E. Leighley), presented at the Conference on Homeogeneity and Heterogeneity in Public Opinion, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, October, Who Votes Now? And Does It Matter?, (with Jan E. Leighley), presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April, Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, , (with Jan E. Leighley), presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, 2006.

18 Jonathan Nagler; October, A Good Model of Turnout and a Cross-National Empirical Analysis (with Melanie Goodrich), presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April, Anglo and Hispanic Vote Choice in the 2004 Election (with R. Michael Alvarez and Lisa Garcia Bedolla), manuscript, March, Do Voters Really Care Who Gets What?: Economic Growth, Economic Distribution, and Elections (with Suzanna De Boef), presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, A Method for Weighting Survey Samples of Low-Incidence Voters (with R. Michael Alvarez), presented at the Annual Summer Meeting of the Political Methodology Society, Tallahassee, Florida, July, Latinos, Anglos, Voters, Candidates, and Voting Rights (with R. Michael Alvarez), presented at The University of Pennsylvania Law Review Symposium: The Law of Democracy Since Bush v. Gore, Philadelphia, PA, February, A Comparative Evaluation of Economic and Issue Voting (with Catherine Wilson and R. Michael Alvarez), manuscript, November, Group Economic Performance, Economic Voting and Electoral Accountability (with Suzanna De Boef), presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April, Economic Voting in the United States: Methodological Issues and Research Agendas (with R. Michael Alvarez), prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, September, Socioeconomic Class Bias in Turnout : Evidence from Aggregate Data (with Jan E. Leighley), presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, September, The Varying Self-Interest of Voters and Economic Reference Groups - Two Analyses to Explain Al Gore s 2000 Campaign Strategy (with Suzanna De Boef), presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D. C., September, Is the Sleeping Giant Awakening?: Latinos and California Politics in the 1990 s (with R. Michael Alvarez), presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April, The Relative Impact of Issues and the Economy in Canada: (with Comparisons to the Netherlands, the United States, and Great Britain) (with Jennifer R. Willette and R. Michael Alvarez), presented at the Conference on: Economics and Elections, Sandjerg Slot, Denmark, August, Estimating Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition, and Measuring the Compactness of a Multiparty Issue Space (with Jennifer Niemann and R. Michael Alvarez), presented at the An-

19 Jonathan Nagler; October, nual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Los Angeles, California, March, Analysis of Crossover and Strategic Voting (with R. Michael Alvarez), California Insititute of Technology Social Science Working Paper Number 1019, September, Other Conference Participation and Seminars Paper presented at the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM), Mexico City, Mexico, February, Paper presented at University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada, November, Invited participant at the Barcelona Conference on Popularity Functions, Institut de Ciències Politiques i Socials, Barcelona, Spain, November, Invited participant at the Conference on: Economics and Elections, Sandjerg Slot, Denmark, August, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association: 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1989, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association: 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1994, 1992, 1990, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Political Methodology Society: 2005, 1995, 1993, Paper presented at the quarterly meeting of the Southern California Political Methodology Program: Spring, 1998; Spring Discussant and/or Panel Chair, Annual Political Methodology Summer Conference: 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1993, Invited Participant, presented 2 papers and served as discussant at the Elections Mini-Conference, Washington University, St. Louis, March, Other Grant Activity Future Policy Directions for California: Forecasting Demands from Latino Voters, submitted to the Public Policy Institute of California, November, (with R. Michael Alvarez) Effects of Presidential Campaign Spending on Election Outcomes. College of Liberal Arts Minigrant program, ($350). April, (with Jan Leighley)

20 Jonathan Nagler; October, Awards 1998 Robert H. Durr Award for the best paper presented at the 1997 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association applying quantitative methods to a substantive problem in political science. For A New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Systems, (with R. Michael Alvarez). Professional Associations American Political Science Association (Political Methodology, Elections and Electoral Behavior, and Comparative Politics Sections) Midwest Political Science Association, Southern Political Science Association, Western Political Science Association Other Professional Activities Expert witness testimony on the likely impact of Election Day Registration in Connecticut, ACORN, et al., v. Bysiewicz, April, Special Advisor to Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, Democracy Corps, Surveys of Hispanic Voters, 2004 to Spring, Consultant to The Mellman Group, survey of Hispanic Voters for John Kerry campaign, Summer, Consultant to Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, NARAL Pro-Choice American survey, Summer, Prepared Expert report for the state of California, Cano v Davis. Prepared analysis of racial bloc voting and other relevant aspects of redistricting plan. Fall Summer President, Political Methodology section of the American Political Science Association, Vice-President, Political Methodology section of the American Political Science Association, Consultant to Knight Ridder, Survey of Hispanic Voters, Member, California Internet Voting Task Force, Section Organizer, Methodology, Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, Massachusetts, September, Expert witness for the state of California, California Party v. Bill Jones. Testified on the likely impact of a blanket primary on crossover voting and strategic voting. Summer, Editor, The Political Methodologist, Spring 1996 to Summer, 1998

21 Jonathan Nagler; October, Web Master, Political Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association, Spring 1995 to Fall Designed and Supervise Electronic Paper Archive, Political Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association, Spring 1995 to Fall Section Organizer, Elections, Voting, and Participation, Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April, 1997.

22 APPENDIX B (CD-ROM to be provided)

23 APPENDIX C (CD-ROM to be provided)

24 APPENDIX D

25 STATE OF COLORADO Department of State 1700 Broadway Suite 250 Denver, CO Mike Coffman Secretary of State William A. Hobbs Deputy Secretary of State News Release FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MEDIA CONTACT: Rich Coolidge October 9, 2008 (303) Coffman responds to NY Times article inaccuracies Actual numbers in Colorado well below article s estimates Denver, Colorado Today Secretary of State Mike Coffman responded to voter concerns generated by an October 9 story in the New York Times. The article identified six states, one of which was Colorado, and referenced inaccurate numbers related to voter registration. Colorado voters can rest assured that our county clerks take every precaution in maintaining our state s voter rolls, said Coffman. The Secretary of State s office provided an actual report from Colorado s statewide system that included all cancelled voters since July 21, 2008 and the reasons for cancellation. Those numbers are as follows: Reason for Cancellation Total Moved out of County/State 6,572 Duplicate 4,434 Failed 20-day period 1,136 Deceased 1,145 Convicted Felon 544 Withdrawn 203 Not a Citizen 13 Voter Fraud 2 TOTAL 14,049 In revisiting the numbers, the state did identify 2,454 duplicate voter records that were cancelled within the 90-day window referenced in the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA). Coffman did say that he was checking with the state Attorney General s office for an interpretation of NVRA.

26 Last year, the state began developing the statewide voter registration database (SCORE) and consolidating the voter records of 64 counties into one system. SCORE was deployed statewide in April of 2008 and allows real-time access for counties to verify voter information through Colorado state agencies and identify duplicate records from other counties. Centralizing the state s voters helped to consolidate the rolls by identifying duplicate voters across county lines and providing additional verification tools, said Coffman. Coffman also encouraged Colorado voters to visit where they can verify their own voter registration information to ensure it s up to date and accurate. # # #

27 APPENDIX E

28 Voter Registration Figures-July 31, 2008 Status Active Total Inactive Total County County ACP DEM GRN LIB REP UNA UPA ACTIVE ACP DEM GRN LIB CRP REP UNA UPA INACTIVE Totals Adams 65 53, ,070 49, , , ,884 27, , ,727 Alamosa 0 2, ,055 1, , ,329 8,335 Arapahoe 91 83, ,872 68, , , ,313 35, , ,785 Archuleta 0 1, ,628 1, , , ,224 8,860 Baca , , ,851 Bent , ,633 Boulder 26 66, ,639 54, , , ,624 24, , ,455 Broomfield 6 8, ,501 8, , , ,168 3, ,295 33,648 Chaffee 5 2, ,931 2, , , ,506 12,067 Cheyenne , ,427 Clear Creek 1 1, ,965 2, , ,363 7,099 Conejos 1 2, , , ,017 4,994 Costilla 1 1, , ,366 Crowley , ,004 Custer , , ,367 Delta 15 3, ,154 4, , ,822 1, ,625 19,360 Denver , ,006 46,185 77, , , ,511 57, , ,379 Dolores , ,477 Douglas 34 28, ,984 36, , , ,869 14, , ,486 Eagle 10 5, ,074 8, , , ,127 3, ,480 27,896 El Paso 83 55, ,037 74, , , ,010 39, , ,862 Elbert 9 1, ,638 3, , ,664 1, ,526 15,412 Fremont 4 6, ,871 7, , ,456 1, ,853 28,146 Garfield 3 5, ,472 8, , , ,169 3, ,095 29,311 Gilpin 0 1, , , ,529 4,713 Grand 1 2, ,865 2, , , ,371 10,838 Gunnison 4 2, ,486 3, , , ,131 11,938 Hinsdale Huerfano 0 2, , , ,474 Jackson ,288 Jefferson 65 86, ,130 78, , , ,095 37, , ,373 Kiowa ,142 Kit Carson , , ,570 La Plata 9 8, ,077 8, , , ,386 3, ,149 35,079 Lake 0 1, , ,137 4,357 Larimer 57 44, ,256 50, , , ,429 19, , ,785 Las Animas 3 3, ,632 1, , , ,053 8,721 Lincoln , , ,064 Logan 2 2, ,857 2, , ,987 11,371 Mesa 31 14, ,675 19, , , ,797 10, ,785 88,402 Mineral Moffat 2 1, ,314 1, , ,322 8,271 Montezuma 0 3, ,543 3, , ,552 1, ,120 16,261 Montrose 9 3, ,469 5, , ,226 2, ,606 23,486 Morgan 3 2, ,867 2, , ,183 1, ,163 13,366 Otero 1 2, ,021 2, , , , ,308 11,291 Ouray , , ,766 Park 7 2, ,811 3, , ,087 1, ,079 12,125 Phillips , , ,979 Pitkin 1 3, ,904 4, , , ,160 12,512 Prowers 2 1, ,119 1, , ,621 6,365 Pueblo 12 34, ,691 19, , , ,280 9, ,676 96,489 Rio Blanco , , ,176 Rio Grande 2 1, ,518 1, , ,676 7,159 Routt 6 3, ,912 4, , ,168 1, ,893 16,146 Saguache 0 1, , ,066 3,709 San Juan San Miguel 0 1, , , ,595 5,960 Sedgwick , ,851 Summit 2 4, ,064 6, , , ,546 3, ,987 20,797 Teller 3 2, ,114 3, , ,095 1, ,968 17,071 Washington , , ,062 Weld 70 25, ,626 32, , , ,904 14, , ,066 Yuma ,403 1, , ,133 5,777 State Totals ,565 3,941 6, , , ,226, ,712 1,484 1, , , ,462 3,007,783 07/31/2008 1