Prospects of the normalization process in the Southern Philippines:

Transcription

1 Prospects of the normalization process in the Southern Philippines: An architecture of uncertainty? Australian National University By Georgi S. Engelbrecht September 3 rd, 2016

2 Last week in the Philippines: In Marawi City, Lanao del Sur: ISIS-inspired armed group (Maute Brothers) breaks out of jail In Manila: Department of Justice filed criminal charges of assault and murder against MILF BIAF commanders (Mamasapano incident) Sulu/Basilan: Continuous lawenforcement operations against the Abu Sayyaf Group In Davao: Meeting of the GPH- MILF implementation teams/panels

3 Appraisal of the ground level VerticalarmedviolenceintheBangsamoroareasonthe decline, yet situation not devoid of violent incidents (3 ceasefire incidents 2016 between GPH and MILF and regular GPH BIFF/ASG clashes in the context of law enforcement ops) Protracted horizontal conflict with varying intensity, scope and situational trends (relative decline of high intensity clan feuds, emergence/transformation of new violent actors) Localized pockets of violence embedded in a transitional system with sectors of human insecurity

4 The promise of Normalization The aim of normalization is to ensure human security in the Bangsamoro. Normalization helps build a society that is committed to basic human rights, whereby individuals are free from fear of violence or crime and where long held traditions and values continue to be honoured (FAB, 2012). Bringing the peace dividend to the existing flash point areas where conflict still occurs on regular basis

5 President Duterte: No Bangsamoro Army/Police. Adviser on Peace Process Dureza: Massive development packages.

6 Security Aspects of the GPH MILF Normalization Process Normalization vs. Standard DDR Interdependency of measures: MILF decommissioning relative to government actions Complicated umbrella architecture (JNC, JPSC, JPST) currently on hold Practical aspect of thousands of armed men (AFP, BIAF and others) on the ground Insecurity Trap through continuous supply of means and actors of violence

7 Uncertainties of the process 1.Normalization without BBL and decommissioning? Ongoing socio economic interventions without a reduction in the number armed forces (cosmetic/symbolic measures) Synergies between the Enabling Law (Federalism?) and the sequencing of decommissioning? Hanging post conflict security framework in Bangsamoro areas perpetuating the insecurity trap

8 2. Changes in the landscape of armed groups in Bangsamoro areas Implications of MILF MNLF convergence to the ground level International Crisis Group recommendation: Amnesty and Demobilisation package to MNLF? No recipe to tackle the security challenges from BIFF, Maute Group and ASG except for law enforcement

9 Impact on vertical conflict? The hidden challenge of the normalization process Decommissioning Less high powered firearms and formal combatants of the BIAF MILF (supply side) Only the beginning of human security efforts Other Normalization measures Reducing incentives for return to violence through confidence building and socio economic aspects of MILF and potentially other groups (demand side) Need for consistent and genuine implementation Impact on local political economies?

10 Critical Factors and Recommendations 1) Management of a political issue 2) Policy Coherence 3) Avoiding security dilemmas and power vacuums 4) Issue of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) 5) Community centered approach and local normalization Decommissioning, what for? Primacy of status quo in the short to medium term? Renegotiating the terms?

11 Thank you very much/salamat po. Questions?

12 Contact Information Georgi S. Engelbrecht: Skype: georgij.engelbrecht