A New Sound in the Suburbs

Transcription

1 A New Sound in the Suburbs Is Poverty Decentralising in Scottish Cities? By Leo Kavanagh, Duncan Lee and Gwilym Pryce Presented by Gwilym Pryce, Sheffield Methods Institute Research funded by ESRC AQMEN Research Centre

2 Plan Sound of the Suburbs The stereotype Born in the USA American suburban poverty Some methodological questions Application to Scottish Cities Has poverty dispersed or shifted? Conclusion Questions / Future research 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

3 Sound of the Suburbs Conventional image of suburbia is one of bland affluence, social homogeneity and insularity We had a hedge back home in the suburbs, over which I never could see. (Lost in the Supermarket by The Clash). 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

4 Sound of the Suburbs The Members (1979) Same old boring Sunday morning old mans out washing the car, Mums in the kitchen cooking Sunday dinner her best meal moaning while it lasts Johnny s upstairs in his bedroom sitting in the dark, Annoying the neighbours with his punk rock electric guitar, This is the Sound, This is the Sound of the Suburbs This is the Sound, This is the Sound of the Suburbs 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

5 Suburban affluence where did the stereotype come from? Post war landscape of many Western cities. A product of the monocentric city Deindustrialisation Crime and deprivation concentrated in urban centres, Inner cities then hollowed-out by white flight and declining urban populations. American donut: a sugary ring with an empty centre has become a fine metaphor for the rich suburbs around a collapsed inner city (Economist, Jan 17th 2002). To speak of suburban poverty, then, is something of an oxymoron. 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

6 Born in the USA Origins of growing suburban poverty Emerging evidence over several decades of decentralised deprivation Rise of suburban poverty has been highlighted as one of the most significant trends that may come to characterise twentyfirst century cities. 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

7 Brookings Institute finds in American cities: a series of communities in transition from outposts of the middle class to symbols of modern American poverty. Suburbia is now home to the largest and fastestgrowing poor population in the country and more than half of the metropolitan poor. Kneebone, Elizabeth; Berube, Alan ( ). Confronting Suburban Poverty in America (Kindle Locations ). Brookings Institution Press. Kindle Edition. 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

8 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield Growth Rates in City and Suburban Poor 1970 to 2010

9 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

10 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

11 Some methodological questions Defining suburbia: No one definition of suburb exists. Different researchers use different definitions Some very messy with ambiguous implications suburban definition used by Kneebone represents a compromise that distinguishes within each metropolitan area between large, broadly recognized jurisdictions and smaller places that are more likely to lack the scale and capacity necessary to address some of the challenges of rising poverty. Need for a simpler more transparent approach One that can be consistently applied to different cities in different countries etc.

12 Some methodological questions Defining poverty: Brookings research: use the official U.S. federal poverty thresholds (for example, $ 22,314 for a family of four in 2010) as the primary measure of the poor population.

13 RCI: Relative Centralization Index Aerial units ordered by distance from the centre Measures relatively whether people in poverty or not in poverty are more centralized. RCI = 0, the two groups (poor & non-poor) have the same spatial distribution in terms of distance to the city centre. RCI > 0: people in poverty tend to be closer to the city centre than people not in poverty. RCI < 0: people in poverty tend to be further away from the city centre than people not in poverty.

14 Application to Scottish Cities Three poverty measures: Income support (IS) claimants Incapacity benefit (IB) claimants Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants Collected for 2001 and 2011, the two census years. definitions between the two years are not quite consistent. typically paid to working age people, and the working age for women rose from 60 to 65 between the two census dates. Thus working age is defined to be: Men and Women in 2001 and in For each of the three benefits we have: The number of working age people claiming each benefit in each DZ in each year. The total number of working age people in each DZ in each year.

15 Exploratory analysis of the data Example plots of the sample proportion of JSA in 2011 are shown below for each city:

16 Aberdeen JSA proportions

17 Dundee JSA proportions

18 Edinburgh JSA Proportions

19 Glasgow JSA Proportions

20 Results: Interpreting RCI A value greater than zero means people in poverty are more centralized than people not in poverty. A value less than zero means people in poverty are relatively de-centralised compared with people not in poverty. Zero indicates equal weighting. A fall in RCI indicates de-centralisation of poverty.

21 Results: Measuring Uncertainty: Changes between 2001 and 2001 are deemed to be statistically significant if the 95% Bayesian credibility intervals for the estimates for the two years do not overlap.

22 Results: Income Support

23 Results: Job Seekers Allowance

24 Results: Incapacity Benefit

25 Sensitivity analysis on choice of city centre (JSA 2011) We consider four different options: A - City Hall (used in the main results) B - Main shopping centre C - Main train station D - Middle of the other three listed above. Insensitive to choice of city centre location. All results are very similar.

26 Has poverty dispersed or shifted? Local RCI for JSA in Aberdeen in 2001 and The mean local RCI is (2001) and (2011) and the corresponding standard deviations are and respectively.

27 Local RCI for JSA in Dundee in 2001 and 2011 The mean local RCI is (2001) and (2011) and the corresponding standard deviations are and respectively.

28 Local RCI for Edinburgh in 2001 and 2011 The mean local RCI is (2001) and (2011) and the corresponding standard deviations are and respectively.

29 Figure 8 Local RCI for Glasgow in 2001 and 2011 The mean local RCI is (2001) and (2011) and the corresponding standard deviations are and respectively.

30 Conclusion Overwhelming evidence of decentralisation of poverty in Scotland s major cities falling RCI between 2001 and All reductions are statistically significant at the 95% level.

31 Edinburgh has RCI less than zero in both years, means that people in poverty are relatively de-centralised compared with people not in poverty. 08/09/2015 The University of Sheffield

32 Questions about policy What are the policy implications? Future of Area-based policies? Area-based regeneration initiatives and support services are most effective if those in greatest need are concentrated in particular sectors of the city.

33 Questions about causation: What is causing the decentralisation of poverty? To what extent is it a sorting problem and to what extent is it purely a labour market shift or peripheral location of new immigrants? E.g. due to labour market changes Suburban white-collar workers being made redundant in the Great Recession E.g. gentrification/sorting poorer households moving away from the city centre because of rising house prices and rents in the inner cities. E.g. immigration New migrants locating in the suburbs.

34 Social housing not suburbs? E.g. increased decentralisation of poverty due to increased poverty in peripheral social housing estates, rather than leafy middleclass suburbs? i.e. are we actually seeing increased concentration of poverty in social housing estates like Easterhouse and Castlemilk which are far from the centre?

35 Some curious implications Does the decentralisation of poverty offset traditional inequalities in exposure to pollution?

36 Implications for concentration of poverty and neighbourhood effects? Is the decentralisation of poverty also imply the de-concentration of poverty? If poverty is becoming dispersed, does this alleviate concerns about neighbourhood effects?

37 Links with other work: Measuring segregation Is the fall in religioous segregation in Belfast due to random churn or is it a genuine effect?

38 Is the housing market blind to race and religion?

39 Thank you!

40 Causes of US Suburbanisation of Poverty Not immigration: Between 2000 and 2009, amid widespread poverty increases, the poverty rate for foreign-born individuals across all suburbs remained unchanged. In contrast, the suburban poverty rate for native-born residents climbed 2 percentage points. Overall, the foreign born contributed 30 percent to total suburban population growth, but just 17 percent to the growth of the poor population in suburbia.

41 Causes of US Suburbanisation of Poverty Great Recession: impact of the Great Recession on unemployment and poverty in suburbs reflected the downturn's suburban-led nature. Manufacturing and construction not only lost the most jobs among major industries between 2007 and 2010 but also were among the most suburbanized. More than 50 percent of jobs in construction and manufacturing were located more than ten miles away from major metropolitan downtowns in 2007

42 RCI