SUDAN COUNTRY ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 United Nations DAN SU Government of National Unity F SOU T TO HE EN N R GOVER NM SUDAN COUNTRY ANALYSIS Government of Southern Sudan

2 Government of National Unity Government of Southern Sudan United Nations SUDAN COUNTRY ANALYSIS November 2007

3 FOREWORD A joint analysis of the foundations for recovery and development The Sudan Country Analysis (CA) represents an analytical tool to inform the identification of strategic development priorities by the United Nations. 1 The analysis takes the Millennium Development Goals as its starting point and identifies key development challenges and capacity gaps that need to be addressed to meet these challenges. The Analysis will provide the foundation for the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) , which will identify common United Nations priorities and provide a basis for joint programming in support of national priorities. The CA mirrors the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in that it refers to the different systems of Sudan. Therefore separate analyses for the North and South have been consolidated into a comprehensive document. In so doing, the CA seeks synergies between these two regions, while allowing programming to be tailored to their specific needs. The CA will guide the vision of a society where peaceful coexistence is given prominence. This requires concerted efforts to develop norms, processes and institutions that systematically address insecurities and inequalities. Because deprivation and insecurity are intimately intertwined, tackling both effectively demands an informed approach. By analysing gaps and needs, the Country Analysis helps focus on equitable and sustainable development in Sudan, characterized by opportunities for self-sustenance and multiple alternative livelihoods. I would like to recognize the dedication and efforts which went into preparing this Country Analysis in a remarkably inclusive manner, involving the entire United Nations Country Team, national partners and counterparts in the Government of National Unity and Government of Southern Sudan through Technical Working Group (TWGs). The collaborative process of developing this document represents an important achievement in itself. New partnerships were forged; and a momentum for continued collaboration has been established, not only between UN agencies and national partners, but also among counterparts of the Government of National Unity and the Government of Southern Sudan. It is envisaged that the TWGs will continue as a basis for partnerships and collaboration among government, civil society and United Nations partners throughout the preparation of the UNDAF. The joint publication of this document is testimony to the success of such joint UN-Government partnership. Ameerah Haq 1 As opposed to a Common Country Assessment which requires the development of a full assessment, the Country Analysis is undertaken where development assessments is already present in a country and can draw on these.

4 CONTENTS FOREWORD 1 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 4 1 INTRODUCTION PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE COUNTRY ANALYSIS 6 RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND AGREEMENTS 6 PREPARATION OF THE COUNTRY ANALYSIS COUNTRY BACKGROUND TRANSITION TO RECOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT 9 STATUS OF SUDAN RELATIVE TO THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 10 DARFUR 11 2 PEACEBUILDING SITUATION ANALYSIS 13 ARMED CONFLICT 13 DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILISATION AND REINTEGRATION 14 COMMUNITY SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL 18 DISPLACEMENT, RETURN AND INTEGRATION 20 PRESENCE OF MINES UN COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 28 3 GOVERNANCE, RULE OF LAW, AND CAPACITY BUILDING SITUATION ANALYSIS 30 ELECTIONS 31 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 32 DECENTRALISATION 33 PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, AID MANAGEMENT AND ACCOUNTABILITY 36 RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS AND ACCESS TO JUSTICE 37 MEDIA 41 CIVIL SOCIETY 42 WOMEN, CHILDREN AND YOUTH UN COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 45 4 LIVELIHOODS AND PRODUCTIVE SECTORS SITUATION ANALYSIS 47 AGRICULTURE 47 LIVESTOCK 49 FORESTRY 50 FISHERIES 51 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES 51 FINANCIAL SERVICES 52 2

5 EMPLOYMENT RIGHTS, HUMAN RESOURCES AND SKILLS 53 INDUSTRY 54 BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE 57 POLICY, GOVERNANCE AND REGULATION UN COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 59 5 BASIC SERVICES SITUATION ANALYSIS 60 POPULATION AND SOCIAL WELFARE 60 EDUCATION 61 HEALTH AND NUTRITION 67 WATER AND SANITATION UN COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 77 6 CONCLUSION AND PRIORITY AREAS FOR THE UNDAF 78 ANNEX 1 79 SOURCES AND FURTHER READING 79 ANNEX 2 82 SUDAN UNITED NATIONS COUNTRY TEAM 82 MAIN PARTNERS IN PREPARATION OF CA 82 3

6 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CA CCA CAAFG CEDAW CEWARN CPA CS&C CSO DDR DPA ESPA ERW GONU GOSS HAC INC JAM NA NCP NDDRCC NMAA NMAC NSDDRC OAG SAF SPLA SPLM SSDC SSLA SSPC SSRRC TCC TTAs TWG UNDAF UNDDR UNMIS WAAFG Country Analysis Common Country Assessment Children associated with armed forces and groups Charter for the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women Conflict early-warning and response mechanism Comprehensive Peace Agreement Community security and arms control Civil society organisation Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration Darfur Peace Agreement Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement Explosive remnants of war Government of National Unity Government of Southern Sudan Humanitarian Affairs Commission Interim National Constitution Joint Assessment Mission National Assembly National Congress Party National DDR Coordination Council National Mine Action Authority National Mine Action Centre North-South DDR Commission Other armed group Sudan Armed Forces Sudan People s Liberation Army Sudan People s Liberation Movement Southern Sudan Demining Commission Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly Southern Sudan Peace Commission Southern Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission Technical Coordination Committee The three transitional areas : Abyei, Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan Technical Working Group United Nations Development Assistance Framework UN DDR Unit, Sudan UN Mission in Sudan Women associated with armed forces and groups 4

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8 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE COUNTRY ANALYSIS The Country Analysis (CA) for Sudan analyses current development situation and begins to answer the question: where and how can the UN have the most impact between 2009 and 2012 on development and poverty reduction in the Country? The answers to the questions posed by the CA will serve as the basis for identifying priorities that will inform the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) for Sudan for The Country Analysis is framed around four themes of development issues relevant to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sudan. These themes are 2 : Peace-building 3 ; Governance and rule of law; Livelihoods and productive sectors; and Basic services. For each thematic area, the CA presents an analysis. Each chapter is divided into sub-areas of analysis, and an overview of the situation including efforts undertaken by the Government of National Unity (GoNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), root causes for impediments hindering progress toward achievement of the MDGs, and the United Nations comparative advantages in supporting government in addressing these impediments. In each sub-chapter, the key challenges are summarised in bullet points. Key issues that represent development gaps also are listed. Each chapter contains a causal analysis diagram that visualizes the relationship between the development and capacity gaps and the key issues or manifestations. Annex 1 lists the immediate, underlying and root causes related to key challenges. The CA covers the entire country and is structured around national issues, as well as those specific to North and South. Relationship to other development plans and agreements The Country Analysis draws on the development plans of the GONU (National Strategic Five Year Plan) and the GOSS (Budget Sector Plans for the South), the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and the report of the Joint Assessment Mission (JAM). 4 The Country Analysis also builds on the UN and Partners Work Plan for Sudan. Since 2005, the Work Plan has provided an overarching framework for planning, coordinating and funding the United Nations and partners humanitarian, recovery and development interventions in the country. Over the past three years a consistent programmatic shift has occurred from humanitarian to early recovery and development in Sudan. Evidence of this shift lies in funding appeals for recovery and development, which has increased from US $212 million in 2006 to $560 million in In 2008 the funding appeal included sub-categories for early recovery; once combined with recovery and development, the total appeal is for more than $1.1billion. Preparation of the Country Analysis Four technical working groups (TWGs) were established in Khartoum and Juba, tasked with preparing the Country Analysis. Establishing the groups in both locations allowed for in-depth analysis of the different contexts in the two regions. The TWGs are comprised of government counterparts from relevant central and state ministries and institutions, civil society 2 These themes were selected as a result of two workshops in Juba and Khartoum in March Although only one thematic area focuses specifically on peace building, it is recognized that all four identified areas are important elements for developing sustainable peace in Sudan. 4 Because of the existence of comprehensive government plans and analytical data, the UN has not conducted a full Common Country Assessment and agreed to conduct a Country Analysis based on existing analytical works. 6

9 representatives and United Nations programme staff. Each TWG was co-chaired by a government ministry member and a United Nations agency representative/senior staff member. The TWGs met regularly and colleagues from the United Nations and national partners from each group jointly drafted an analytical paper based on available assessments, development plans, and extensive discussions and debate taking place within the groups on key issues. These background papers form the basis of the four consolidated thematic chapters in the Country Analysis. Recognizing that the CA cannot capture all of the material developed by each TWG input, these draft background documents represent important analytical reference material that may be consulted separately for additional information 5. Development of the CA has been a highly participatory exercise, with strong government ownership. As such, the CA also has been instrumental in establishing and/or reinforcing partnerships across the United Nations and with various line ministries. This process required the time, effort and energy of colleagues across the entire United Nations in Sudan, as well as partners in the World Bank and more than 20 Ministries. As a result, this process has produced a CA that effectively represents a nationally owned Sudan Country Analysis. The CA also reflects a common national, United Nations and partners understanding of the development situation in Sudan and the key factors affecting the country s prospects of achieving the MDGs. Although compromises and concessions were made by all parties during this complex process to reach common ground this did not compromise reflection of key issues or exclusion of important aspects. Throughout, the discussions and data sharing of the CA development process, preparation of the document also has been an opportunity to strengthen the national analytical base. This approach has created important momentum for further collaboration during the formulation and implementation of the United Nations development priorities for in the UNDAF. In identifying sub-areas and key issues within the four overall thematic areas, the working groups were guided by three sets of overarching criteria: 1) The need for peace, security and continuing implementation of the CPA; 2) The need for the Sudanese to enjoy basic human security and development; 3) The need for the MDGs to be achieved. These criteria are of paramount importance given Sudan s developmental, economic, humanitarian and political situation after decades of civil war and continuous armed conflict. Accordingly, the CA recognizes the categorical link between human security, human development and human rights, as expressed in former Secretary-General Kofi Annan s report, In Larger Freedom 6. The CA process was facilitated and coordinated by the UN Resident Coordinator Support Offices in Khartoum and Juba. 1.2 COUNTRY BACKGROUND Sudan s history has been shaped by an enormously diverse geography, history and a myriad of identities. With tremendous potential, Sudan is the largest country in Africa covering 2.5 million km 2 ; with the Nile Valley and Red Sea coast making it a gateway between Sub- Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Sudan s modern history has been scarred by conflict: a first war that escalated in 1955 and was resolved in 1972; followed by a second war running from 1983 until the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January The key drivers of this conflict are summarised in the JAM. These include: the South s historic underdevelopment and lack of 5 The background TWG papers can be found on the Sudan RCSO website under the following link: 6 Annan, K., In Larger Freedom: Towards Development, Security and Human Rights for All. March

10 inclusion in decision-making; an urban bias and highly centralised regimes that were seen to favour the populations living around Khartoum and in the riverain areas; local competition for land and water resources among different groups; and bitter contestation over border demarcation of the Three Areas Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile and Abyei with root causes that are similar to those in Southern Sudan, Darfur, and other underdeveloped regions. 7 As resolution to the North South conflict was being negotiated, a conflict in Darfur, in the west of the country began to escalate; this conflict has yet to be resolved. An ongoing conflict in Eastern Sudan between the Beja Congress and the Government of Sudan was resolved in 2006 with the signing of the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA). The ESPA recognises political, social and economic marginalisation as the primary drivers of conflict. Article 22 of the Agreement identifies the strategic development objectives necessary to redress these problems. Therefore, the ESPA provides both an important opportunity as well as challenge for the UN and Partners to effectively support the peace process. These conflicts, and other fighting around the country, have caused enormous destruction and loss of life with drastic consequences for human and economic development. Recurring floods and droughts have added to the country s burden of humanitarian crises. Sudan s conflicts also have regional implications and triggers: the combination of Sudan conflicts with those occurring in neighbouring countries creates cross-border insecurity and remains a destabilising factor for the entire region. With the signing of the CPA, ESPA, and efforts underway to resolve the conflict in Darfur, Sudan has its greatest opportunity in a generation to build peace and to improve the lives of all Sudanese especially the poor and war-affected communities. Economic context Macroeconomic stability is a prerequisite for effective recovery and development. Sudan has maintained a sustained record of macroeconomic stability since However, performance under the 2006 IMF Staff Monitored Program was mixed, reflecting a number of new challenges in economic management. Following the onset of significant oil exports in 1999, economic growth averaged roughly 7 percent per annum between 2000 and 2006, and at an estimated 10 percent in 2007, is among the highest on the continent. Agriculture commands the largest share of GDP (roughly one-third), though down from 42 percent of GDP in Foreign investment and rising domestic demand have spurred growth in the construction and services sectors. While exploitation of oil resources has facilitated an increase in national wealth, it has also led to an increased risk of internal and external macroeconomic imbalances, as well as a heightened concern for balanced growth in the non-oil sectors that are key for poverty reduction efforts. The growth of Sudan s oil industry has provided new wealth. Other natural resources, agriculture and the country s growing workforce also have the potential to further boost the economy. The international community is harnessing this opportunity through the following: the deployment of UN peacekeepers in support of the CPA, and multilateral/international donors are contributing funds to support the peace, address any remaining humanitarian needs and support the recovery and development efforts across the country. Related to these efforts, it is recognised that sustainable natural resource development will be key to stability and effective longer-term development in Sudan. Oil production and price volatilities experienced in late 2006 and early 2007 highlight the inherent fiscal challenges of an oil-dependent economy. Unrealised oil revenue projections during this period, combined with new spending related to the CPA (e.g., transfers to GoSS and to Northern states, new commissions and institutional arrangements from the peace 7 Major grievances in the Three Areas included political disenfranchisement, lack of access to basic services, food insecurity and lack of investment in development. Location of borders and land rights are especially critical issues for example seasonal access for herders to water and grazing lands in Abyei. In Northern Upper Nile, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, there are important land concerns in relation to expropriation of communal territory for largescale schemes. 8

11 agreements), resulted in the highest fiscal deficits since stabilisation (4 percent of GDP in 2006) after budget surpluses as recently as Improvements in oil production and prices in the second half of 2007 provided partial relief to fiscal pressures, with the deficit estimated at 3.5 percent of GDP for The fiscal expansion and rapid credit growth for public sector financing significantly weakened the financial sector and required several injections of liquidity by the Bank of Sudan totalling 1.5 percent of GDP between September 2006 and January In addition, the Oil Revenue Stabilization Account (ORSA) was exhausted in 2006 to help cover the fiscal deficit, and withdrawals have continued through 2007 depleting roughly three-quarters of deposits through September Thus the ORSA is currently unable to provide relief from future revenue shortfalls without significant replenishment. To ensure stability in a volatile revenue environment, prudent expenditure management is essential. Recent external imbalances include deterioration in the current account as well as rapid appreciation in the real exchange rate. The latter has raised significant competitiveness concerns for non-oil exports, in addition to existing supply-side constraints to production. The infusion of foreign exchange from oil exports and large inflows of foreign direct investment have driven a roughly 40 percent appreciation of the real exchange rate since January Exports of key rural products such as livestock, gum Arabic, and sesame have fallen in large part due to reduced competitiveness. This has hurt the rural producers of these goods, leading in some regions to the paradoxical phenomenon of impoverishing growth. The fiscal pressures in the South are even more acute. GoSS s actual expenditures have deviated significantly from budget plans, with much higher than planned expenditures and large differences between sectoral spending plans and outturns. Payroll costs have swollen, and fiscal discipline has been an issue. The budget is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues, and the South s cash reserves that could have provided a cushion are no longer available, having been run down in In case of a revenue shortfall, the required fiscal adjustment would have to include painful cuts in planned investments and/or in the burgeoning payroll. Sudan s debt overhang constrains access to concessional finance. Outstanding external debt stands at about $27 billion in net present value terms, with about $24 billion in arrears. 8 The results of a recent joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) forecast continued debt distress 9, even assuming prudent macroeconomic policies and further increases in oil revenues. Moreover, Sudan is highly vulnerable to both oil production and price shocks. 1.3 TRANSITION TO RECOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT The conflict in Sudan illustrates that the entire country has been affected by violence albeit regions have not been affected uniformly or at the same time. Consequently, the diverse experiences and contexts in Sudan make it difficult to generalise about transition in the country since recovery and development needs vary considerably among regions. The CA seeks to respond to this complexity, which is critical for ensuring effective UN support to consolidating peace in Sudan. Supporting the transition to recovery and development requires careful and participatory planning, coordination and sustained commitments by partners and donors. Accordingly, the CA process has been a joint undertaking of the United Nations, the Government of National Unity (GoNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) with wide consultations with key partners in the different regions. 8 Of Sudan s total outstanding debt, IDA arrears amount to about $459 million. IMF arrears stand at about $1.64 billion. 9 Sudan is potentially eligible for debt relief under the HIPC initiative after clearing its outstanding arrears. Debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) could also be available in the event that Sudan reaches its HIPC Completion Point. 9

12 Recovery Recovery is considered here as an approach that aims to restore and improve living conditions to those that were in place before they were affected by conflict/crisis. Efforts are conducted with a stronger application of development principles and are designed to address the underlying causes of the crisis, providing individuals and communities with opportunities for self-sustenance and multiple alternative livelihoods. Recovery interventions also allow the government to take an increasing role in planning and implementation of programmes, and the delivery of services. Recovery provides a foundation for development, which is conducted in the longer term. A development orientation supports interventions that improve living conditions beyond pre-disaster conditions. Development interventions aim to promote growth, equity and sustainability, and provide individuals and communities with empowerment and prosperity. The challenge of implementing the CPA and other agreements is enormous and complex. This includes the path to elections due in 2009; and referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan and on the status of Abyei due in Existing local and regional conflicts could complicate the task of building capacity at all levels and improving governance, the rule of law, livelihoods and access to basic services. This Country Analysis attempts to capture these risks to inform priority setting for equitable delivery of services to the people and thereby the consolidation of peace in Sudan. Status of Sudan relative to the Millennium Development Goals As highlighted in the JAM, performance against the MDG indicators demonstrates inequalities with respect to gender, rural-urban residence, and at the regional and sub-regional levels. These disparities are associated with the following factors: socio-economic differences; population movements related to conflict; lack of basic infrastructure in Southern Sudan; and other humanitarian effects of the conflict. The table below highlights disparities between Northern and Southern Sudan, and the JAM notes in particular that the situation in Southern Kordofan, Abyei and Blue Nile is characterised by, weakened institutional capacity and governance structures, as war has increased poverty and reduced access to basic services and infrastructure, and contributed to degradation of the environment. Furthermore, the ESPA recognises that political, social and economic marginalisation were the primary drivers of conflict in the East. A key indicator of the disparity in the Eastern States is that Kassala and Red Sea States consistently have the highest malnutrition rates in the country Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates generally exceed the emergency threshold of 15%; GAM rates in Kassala and RSS are 18% and 19%, respectively. 10

13 1 2 3 MDG Northern Sudan 2015 Target Southern Sudan MDG 1: Poverty and Hunger Estimated poverty incidence (% of total population) 50% 45% 90% 45% Prevalence of child malnutrition (underweight for age; under 5) 31%* 16% 48%*** 24% Prevalence of acute child malnutrition *** (underweight for weight; % under 5) 16% 8% 21% 11% MDG 2: Education Gross primary enrolment ratio *** 62% 100% 20% 100% Percentage of cohort completing primary school*** 21% 100% 2% 100% Adult literacy rate ** 60-79% 25% 11 (North and South) 2015 Target MDG 3: Gender Equality 88% 100% 36% 100% Ratio girls to boys in primary education *** Women s literacy rate 62% 12% Percentage of women in National Assembly/Council of States 19% -- 4% 25% MDG 4: Child Mortality Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000)* Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)* One-year-olds immunized against measles *** 78% % -- MDG 5: Maternal Mortality Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births) * , Birth attended by skilled health staff * 57% 90% 5% 90% MDG 6: HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49)*** 7% -- < 1 % -- HIV Prevalence (% adults ages 15-49)* 1.6% %*** -- Incidence of TB (per 100,000 per year)*** Children under 5 with fever treated with anti-malarials (%) 54.2%* -- 36%*** -- 7 MDG 7 Environment 58.7% 85% 48.3% 75% Access to improved drinking water source (% of population)* Access to improved sanitation (% of population) * 39.9% 67% 6.4% 53% *Sudan Health and Household Survey 2006 ** EFA Global Summary Report 2008 p.17 *** Sudan Millennium Development Goals. Interim Unified Report, 2004 DARFUR The Country Analysis does not include in-depth analysis of the three states of Darfur. At the time of writing, the conflict in Darfur is still unresolved; it is expected that when circumstances allow the region can be incorporated into longer-term recovery and development plans. It is, however, deemed appropriate to include a short section on Darfur in the Country Analysis, given the immense challenges facing the region and recognising that adequate analysis and development interventions will be undertaken as the situation permits. The challenges facing Darfur have root causes that date back decades, further complicated by new dimensions arising from the current conflict. Competition over land and natural resources, exacerbated by drought and desertification, population pressures and limited livelihood options, particularly for nomadic populations, are all components of protracted conflict and an ongoing environmental crisis. The struggle for political and ideological power, political and economic marginalisation, ethnic tension and the progressive weakening of local governance, coupled with increasing resource scarcity, are all fundamental root causes of the Darfur conflict. Redressing marginalisation is central to effectively overcoming the challenges to longer term peace and prosperity in Darfur. To do so requires addressing the systemic and deep-rooted underdevelopment as measured in terms of human development and economic indicators, and low levels of public investment in basic social and economic infrastructure; local governance structures characterised by lack of capacity; and competition for power which is 11 Target for 2011, National Report on EFA, Ministry of general Education, July 2007, p

14 insufficiently representative or inclusive; and broader regional factors which have tended to complicate and exacerbate specific challenges. In addition Darfur is facing a massive challenge to adapt its economic and livelihood activities to the impacts of population growth, displacement, and environmental degradation including climate change. This challenge is made particularly complex in the context of the civil conflict resulting in loss of trust between different communities who pursue different livelihood strategies. Adding to these challenges are those pertinent to the more immediate recovery phase, of which the single most critical challenge will be re-establishing sustained security for people to return, reintegrate and recover. This is inextricably linked to effective reconciliation processes through civil mechanisms accepted by all. Ensuring access to equitable compensation is a challenge but also a pillar for reconciliation. Addressing immediate land access issues and sustainable water resource management needs, for both sedentary and nomadic populations, will be a key determinant in people s choice to return. As will the provision of timely and strategically targeted social services addressing key concerns of maternal health, HIV/AIDS and education. Underlying all livelihood strategies must be environmentally sound practices. To do so it will require rebuilding and empowering strong, responsive institutions, both traditional and formal, that can meet the needs of the people of Darfur in a non-discriminatory way. Restoring a culture of justice that is responsive to, and protects, human rights; and (re)building confidence in the government and its institutions, among groups, and with new and old leadership, all constitute key challenges to effective recovery and laying a foundation for development. Although the present situation in Darfur requires the continued prioritisation of humanitarian assistance, planning for an eventual durable peace in Darfur must continue in parallel. Activities that build awareness and planning capacities develop new skills and pilot new technologies and approaches, address gaps within the humanitarian response, while building environmentally sound foundations for future early recovery when conditions permit, are being advanced. Once there is a sustained cessation of hostilities and inclusive peace process that affords access and consultations across Darfur, the DJAM (Darfur Joint Assessment Mission) will complete its work over a period of 18 weeks. The DJAM will produce a Darfur Early Recovery Programme with costed, priority programmes that feed into a longer term Recovery and Development plan focused on policy reforms and priority interventions. Together they will constitute Darfur s Recovery and Development strategic framework, which will feed into the UN Development Assistance Framework As a strategic framework, the UNDAF is being reviewed annually and as such it allows for incorporation of development priorities specifically related to Darfur as circumstances permit. 12

15 2 PEACEBUILDING With the major exception of Darfur, some progress has been made in building peace in Sudan since the signing of the CPA in January 2005 and the ESPA in October Relevant implementation and monitoring bodies have been established; and although there have been substantial delays and disputes; progress on implementation is being made. One basic testament to the peace is that many people displaced during the civil war in the parts of the country covered by the CPA and ESPA have started to settle down or return to their home areas. However, the consolidation of this peace is not guaranteed. Major development, economic, humanitarian and political challenges persist. While the entire Country Analysis covers aspects related to the achievement of sustainable peace, this chapter examines five challenges that relate directly to providing a conducive environment for peace-building, namely: the reduction of armed conflict; disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR); arms control; displacement, return and reintegration; presence of mines; and human security. 2.1 SITUATION ANALYSIS Armed conflict Although the CPA and the ESPA have formally brought peace, further efforts are needed in order to capitalise on these opportunities and ensure the achievement of a peaceful and secure environment conducive to human security and development. Incidents of armed conflict continue to occur, both in the south and in the north, and sometimes extend beyond the borders of Sudan into neighbouring countries. Ongoing actual or potential causes of conflict include: Challenges to CPA implementation, in particular the redeployment of troops, demarcation of the 1/1/56 border, and determination of the status of Abyei; Access to and control over oil-producing areas and the revenues these generate; Limited ability of civilian security and justice institutions to deal with violence and criminality; The continued existence of armed groups that have the potential to jeopardise CPA implementation; Indiscipline by members of the security forces, especially irresponsible conduct of army personnel; Disputes and competition over cattle, marriage, land, borders, natural resources, and other scarce resources, exacerbated by environmental degradation; Inequitable recovery, development and access to resources; Presence of large numbers of small arms and light weapons in the hands of civilians and other armed groups; Severe poverty, displacement, and human insecurity; Manipulation of ethnic, racial and religious identities for political purposes; Militarisation caused by prolonged exposure to conflict, lack of strong civilian governance and security institutions; and breakdown and marginalization of traditional conflict management mechanisms; Both Northern and Southern Sudan have experienced continued violent conflict and insecurity since the CPA came into force. Underlying the country s susceptibility to armed conflict is the persistence of suppressed political conflict and inter- and intra-community tensions. At higher political levels, this is manifested in the conduct of Sudan s major political parties and forces, and outbreaks of politically-motivated violence; at lower levels tensions often lead to violent clashes over land, scarce natural resources, and cattle. This susceptibility to conflict, especially at local levels, is exacerbated by the continued existence and influence of armed groups and armed civilians, lack of awareness of the CPA, the weakened ability of traditional authorities or processes to peacefully manage conflict, unresponsive government or leadership, and limited capacities of government to deliver effective security, justice and basic services. 13

16 The continuation of armed conflict in varying degrees makes the establishment of an overall development framework for achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG) in Sudan an enormous challenge. Peace-building and the National Five-Year Plan ( ) The National Council for Strategic Planning identifies some critical strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to peace-building in the Five-Year Plan ( ). The plan recognizes that there is local and national support [for a] federal governance system, and that there is a positive contribution from the private sector and civil society organizations towards the provision of social services. 12 However, some critical weaknesses related to peace-building are also identified, including: the potential absence of political commitment to implement plans; lack of civil service institutional capacity, coupled with inadequate administrative processes and systems; and deterioration in public service levels in war-stricken areas. These weaknesses are exacerbated by the following identified threats: absence of security and political stability in parts of the country; absence of a national consensus on a common vision related to major national issues and interests; and presence of local communities tensions owing to the dominance of tribal allegiances over national interests. Moreover, the country faces specific identified challenges, including: the maintenance of national unity and enhanced sovereignty; implementation of the constitutional and administrative structures of the federal system of governance, and establishment of effective institutions required within it; effective implementation of the Interim National Constitution, as provided for under the CPA; enhanced trust and national loyalty in order to maintain peace; and dissemination of a culture of peace which encourages dialogue and freedom of expressions. Addressing these challenges will require structural transformation as well as targeted interventions. This, in turn, requires capacity building at many different levels of society so that rights holders can proactively claim their rights and duty bearers can effectively fulfil their obligations. Key Challenges Shortcomings in implementation of CPA and lack of peace dividends; Political and economic marginalisation, and inequitable development and access to basic services, weak governance structures and lack of human security; Intra- and inter-community mistrust, lack of commitment to and confidence in peaceful conflict management processes. Continued violent conflict in some regions Key Issue Risk of continued armed conflict and human insecurity. Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration Decades of conflict have resulted in high levels of armed forces, militias, combatants and small arms across Sudan. Within this context, the country has a large pool of special-needs groups including children associated with armed forces and groups (CAAFG, primarily boys, but also girls) and women associated with armed forces and groups (WAAFG), elderly and disabled combatants. 12 National Council for Strategic Planning, The Five-year Plan, Chapter 2,

17 Demobilising combatants (both male and female) and special-needs groups, as well as reintegrating them into civilian life, are prerequisites for human security, development and stability and represent major challenges in Sudan. Economic and social development is at risk when former combatants hold on to their weapons and continue to use armed violence. The varied roles of WAAFGs and their particular needs must be taken into account to ensure effective demobilisation and reintegration. WAAFGs may have fought for only brief periods or they may have performed functions in support of fighting forces/groups. Because of the roles they played during the conflict, WAAFGs often face particular stigma when reintegrating into communities and may also require specific support to ensure their full protection. Women play a key role in peace-building and the successful reintegration of all WAAFGs is paramount to recovery. However, exclusionary formal and informal power structures may make it difficult for women to participate in DDR programs and their design. The use of children in conflicts has been universally condemned and the UN is committed to demobilizing and removing children used by armed forces and groups. Meeting the special needs of CAAFGs during reintegration is an essential component of peace-building. In Sudan, as many other places, CAAFGs have often been excluded from participating in the normal activities of their non-associated peers, such as schooling and other recreational activities. Furthermore, they may face stigma in their communities, due to their association with parties to the conflict. Failure to reintegrate CAAFGs jeopardizes their protection and poses significant social and psychological developmental challenges. Furthermore, if CAAFGs are not reintegrated, they could pose a threat to security, as they are at a high risk of becoming associated with activities or groups that are detrimental to social cohesion. Successful reintegration of CAAFGs addresses the particular needs of children, such as accelerated learning opportunities and psychosocial support, while also contributing to community reconciliation processes. All assistance for CAAFGs should also be balanced with efforts to meet the needs of all children and youth. In Sudan, the National DDR Coordination Council (NDDRCC) coordinates DDR, which is being led by the Northern and Southern DDR Commissions (NSDDRC and SSDDRC). A National Strategy on DDR has been developed by the NSDDRC and the SSDDRC, with technical inputs from the UN, efforts are being made to address issues of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of combatants and special-needs groups. As required by the CPA, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People s Liberation Army (SPLA) have been redeploying and restructuring their forces. The SAF has targeted 35,000 combatants to participate in the first phase of the DDR programme, though so far only 25,870 combatants have met the eligibility criteria and have been pre-registered to participate, among these, 385 are female combatants 13. Approximately 2,100 women from SAF-aligned other armed groups will participate in the programme. A separate assessment for CAAFG is being carried out to better estimate their numbers; reintegration programmes are in place to support children from OAGs who returned last year. The NSDDRC is currently focused on community reconciliation and sensitization, aimed at improving conditions for the future reintegration of ex-combatants, especially in Abyei, Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan. Female DDR participants and disabled ex-combatants, comprising 5,000 of the initial group, will be targeted for additional support and tailored reintegration opportunities. It has also been recognised that it is crucial that the absorption capacities of communities receiving excombatants are considered in the reintegration programme. Ensuring that host communities benefit from the reintegration programme and linking the reintegration programme with community security and arms control/recovery projects will be important to enhance reconciliation, social cohesion and peace-building. DDR candidates returning to the South to be reintegrated into southern communities constitute a particular challenge to the community reconciliation process. The NSDDRC is yet to communicate the number and place of return of Southerners-aligned with the SAF returning home. It is currently projected that the SSDDRC will introduce approximately 45,000 DDR candidates by mid-2008, including female combatants, WAAFG, CAAFG, 13 Another 19,000 combatants are under consideration by the SAF for participation in the DDR process. 15

18 disabled, and elderly. Ensuring the successful reintegration of this significant number of candidates as productive members of society in Southern Sudan will have profound effects on the security and development environments. This process will itself largely depend on successful, integrated grass-roots peace-building, reconciliation, community planning and community security and arms control programmes that will provide a conducive atmosphere for returns and may provide opportunities to counter challenges for heightened insecurity. The first cycle of reintegration will occur in a context of weak institutional capacity and limited social and economic opportunities for candidates. Failure in the process could destabilise the CPA, result in localised security crises created by disgruntled candidates, and re-establish uncontrolled armed groups. The first target group of DDR candidates includes a significant number of war wounded (about 12,278), who are physically or mentally challenged and require support services to assist them in their reintegration. Approximately 18,000 CAAFG have been demobilised from the SPLA since Over 1000 of these children returned home in 2006 and 2007, as children were identified as a priority group for formal demobilisation in the CPA and the Interim Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) Programme. Little is known about the Other Armed Groups, but the new National DDR strategy envisages that child DDR will continue as needed into Phase 1 and 2 of the DDR programme. The integration of a significant number of combatants from Other Armed Groups (OAGs) into the SPLA, 14 following the signing of the Juba Declaration in January 2006, has posed enormous challenges to the SPLA. The rightsizing of the SPLA has therefore become more of a priority for the GOSS. However, the process and modality for rightsizing the SPLA have not yet been agreed and policy on women s enrolment has yet to be resolved. The SAF is facing similar challenges with the incorporation of its aligned OAGs and has carried out its own independent demobilisation process in Southern Sudan. However the growing number of discharged SAF soldiers remaining in the south are seen by the SPLA as SAF reserves. Their perceived status and allegiance may therefore hamper the core DDR process and trigger local conflicts in the south. The UN has encouraged the NDDRCC and both governments to continue their dialogue on DDR as this engagement has proved valuable. The approach adopted thus far by both the SPLA and SAF forces outlines the critical connection between the military and the broader community, as both have adopted a focus on combatants and their families, rather than on combatants alone. It is important to build on and reinforce this approach through the DDR process. Although both the SAF and the SPLA have provided various initial figures for the number of DDR candidates, a clear definition of the total target numbers and groups has not been agreed. This has not prevented some DDR from being undertaken, but it remains a problem for overall DDR planning. Another key focus has been the capacity building of the national DDR institutions to take a leadership role in child DDR and improved coordination between the Northern and Southern DDR Commissions for more effectiveness and efficiency. In Eastern Sudan, since the signing of the ESPA, the NSDDRC, with support from the UN, has disarmed and demobilised 3,471 combatants from the Eastern Front. Demobilisation and reintegration of 52 WAAFG and 50 disabled ex-combatants (from former OAGs aligned to SAF) has also been undertaken, with UN support; reintegration programmes for these 102 are underway. Under a community security programme, the UN has supported the NSDDRC to undertake a conflict analysis to identify priority communities in the transitional areas and Khartoum State for DDR interventions focused on preventing ex-combatants from taking up arms. Some 224 CAAFG have been identified in the east and are being processed for demobilisation/release, reunification and reintegration. 14 According to the CPA, all OAGs should have aligned with the SAF or the SPLA by March 2006 or be demobilised. The majority of OAGs in Southern Sudan have decided to join the SPLA. Following the Juba declaration officers and soldiers from the Southern Sudan Defence Forces (SSDF) have also been integrated into the SPLA. The last SSDF group (about 34,000 officers and soldiers) joined the SPLA in June

19 Progress has been made related to the protection of children. A child protection programme which stresses family reunification, social work and community based approaches to reintegration of CAAFG is ongoing. The UN is working with NGOs and state ministries of social affairs to provide social work and follow up for the returned children; prevent rerecruitment, establish child and youth groups to provide recreation and psychosocial support; as well as establish community child protection networks. Agreements were also made with the national Ministry of Education to support the education needs of returning children including setting up accelerated learning programme in communities where children have returned. Vocational training and livelihood skills training are being provided by local and international NGOs, and government institutions. The UN has also made progress negotiating release and reintegration programmes for children associated with armed forces/groups under the Darfur Peace Agreement. It is estimated that over 10,000 children still need to be released and reintegrated under the CPA, DPA and EPA. HIV/AIDS awareness is vital for the reintegration process to address potential tensions as well as to promote sustainability by addressing the needs of those affected by HIV/AIDS. Effective HIV/AIDS awareness, prevention and treatment measures must be integrated into reintegration planning and programming; former combatants (men and women) are at particular risk and these groups as well as communities must be sensitized to methods for controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS. The National Five-Year Plan and the National DDR Plan The National Five-Year Plan and the National DDR Plan ( ) emphasise the need for effective reintegration of the ex-combatants and special needs groups. The Plan also recognises the need to support MDGs in all recovery and development spheres. The Joint Assessment Mission programme document ( ) also recognises the issue of reintegration as a primary concern. Development plans of State Governments, especially for Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile and Abyei, also highlight the importance of effective reintegration of ex-combatants at the host community level. NSDDRC plans to undertake a reconciliation and sensitization exercise in partnership with other actors as a precursor to creating an enabling environment for undertaking sustainable reintegration. The NSDDRC plan aims to: Uphold the vision and principles of the national five-year strategic plan; Develop conceptual and operational definitions of all programme components, and target groups, priorities, implementation modalities and selecting implementing partners; and Make DDR largely a civilian process with military inputs. Key Challenges Inadequacy of livelihood and reintegration opportunities due to under-development in rural and urban areas, which deters people from giving up weapons; Memories of conflict, mistrust, ongoing insecurity, and uncertainty about the CPA and future, all of which deter people from giving up weapons or demobilising; and Lack of agreement on total number of DDR candidates and numbers of combatants retained, and lack of clear process for rightsizing and professionalising official armed forces. 17