ATC Order 890 Stakeholder Update Preliminary Results. ATC Economic Planning
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1 ATC Order 890 Stakeholder Update Preliminary Results ATC Economic Planning
2 2008 Analysis Preliminary Results Projects to Analyze Bain Zion 345 kv Line North La Crosse Hilltop Spring Green Cardinal 345 kv Line Lore Spring Green - Cardinal 345 kv Line Preliminary 2018 Non-Project Results Preliminary 2024 Non-Project Results Preliminary 2024 Project Results 2
3 Projects to Analyze Bain Zion 345 kv 3 These drawings are intended for informational purposes only and do not depict actual transmission line additions or potential routes and siting
4 Projects to Analyze North La Crosse Hilltop Spring Green Cardinal 345 kv 4 These drawings are intended for informational purposes only and do not depict actual transmission line additions or potential routes and siting
5 Projects to Analyze Lore Spring Green Cardinal 345 kv 5 These drawings are intended for informational purposes only and do not depict actual transmission line additions or potential routes and siting
6 Preliminary 2018 Non-Project Results 2018 ATC Futures PROMOD Run Data Reference Robust Economy High Retirements High Environmental Slow Growth 20% Wind* Fuel & Investment Limitation ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $60.37 $43.67 $53.31 $83.67 $31.90 $61.60 $71.03 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $63.65 $38.79 $57.31 $93.00 $35.39 $61.88 $79.41 ATC Demand (MWh) 83,820,299 95,869,360 81,582,360 77,421,414 73,164,417 86,114,450 79,832,312 Net Imports (MWh) 11,416,038 24,357,443 18,382,394 14,365, ,242 18,941,086 6,647,571 % Net Imports of Demand 13.62% 25.41% 22.53% 18.56% 1.31% 22.00% 8.33% Peak Imports (MW) 3,903 5,122 4,512 4,319 2,826 6,216 3,095 Demand Response (MWh) 1,142 11, , Emergency (MWh) 1 4, Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) *Utilizes the MISO Wind Transmission Overlay 6
7 Non-Project Results 2024 ATC Futures PROMOD Run Data Reference** Robust Economy** High Retirements** High Environmental** Slow Growth** 20% Wind* Fuel & Investment Limitation** ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $74.93 $85.23 $59.64 $92.16 $40.33 $74.84 $78.98 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $72.42 $49.50 $60.05 $98.46 $42.95 $62.71 $77.65 ATC Demand (MWh) 93,016, ,473,420 89,206,382 81,212,426 75,387,274 96,979,468 86,264,429 Net Imports (MWh) 8,381,305 30,162,822 12,838,014 4,909,497-1,549,632 25,220,985 4,614,795 % Net Imports of Demand 9.01% 26.35% 14.39% 6.05% -2.06% 26.01% 5.35% Peak Imports (MW) 4,222 6,066 4,294 3,165 2,611 5,834 4,220 Demand Response (MWh) 5,872 97,597 3,005 2, ,992 2,666 Emergency (MWh) , , Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) , *Utilizes the MISO Wind Transmission Overlay **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay 7
8 Reference Future Project Results 2024 ATC Reference Future** PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal North La Crosse - Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $74.93 $76.10 $74.55 $75.87 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $72.42 $72.57 $72.33 $72.52 ATC Demand (MWh) 93,016,521 93,016,521 93,016,521 93,016,521 Net Imports (MWh) 8,381,305 7,635,094 8,624,763 8,156,256 % Net Imports of Demand 9.01% 8.21% 9.27% 8.77% Peak Imports (MW) 4,222 4,213 4,345 4,001 Demand Response (MWh) 5,872 5,402 8,223 15,471 Emergency (MWh) ,486 Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) ,061 8 **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay 8
9 Robust Economy Future Project Results 2024 ATC Robust Economy Future** PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal North La Crosse - Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $85.23 $84.71 $85.74 $85.84 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $49.50 $49.44 $49.47 $49.59 ATC Demand (MWh) 114,473, ,473, ,473, ,473,420 Net Imports (MWh) 30,162,822 30,335,782 30,651,114 29,558,469 % Net Imports of Demand 26.35% 26.50% 26.78% 25.82% Peak Imports (MW) 6,066 6,451 6,328 6,272 Demand Response (MWh) 97,597 95, , ,163 Emergency (MWh) 30,165 30,211 35,547 46,133 Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) 11,483 12,053 12,576 7,018 **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay 9
10 High Retirements Future Project Results 2024 ATC High Retirements Future** PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal North La Crosse - Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $59.64 $60.75 $59.53 $60.11 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $60.05 $60.17 $60.06 $60.18 ATC Demand (MWh) 89,206,382 89,206,382 89,206,382 89,206,382 Net Imports (MWh) 12,838,014 12,126,520 12,973,644 14,064,643 % Net Imports of Demand 14.39% 13.59% 14.54% 15.77% Peak Imports (MW) 4,294 4,294 4,330 4,436 Demand Response (MWh) 3,005 2,996 3,990 15,061 Emergency (MWh) ,188 Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay
11 High Environmental Future Project Results 2024 ATC High Environmental Future** North La Crosse - PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $92.16 $96.61 $92.32 $90.65 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $98.46 $98.80 $98.53 $98.42 ATC Demand (MWh) 81,212,426 81,212,426 81,212,426 81,212,426 Net Imports (MWh) 4,909,497 2,929,425 4,907,113 6,565,057 % Net Imports of Demand 6.05% 3.61% 6.04% 8.08% Peak Imports (MW) 3,165 3,165 3,137 3,685 Demand Response (MWh) 2,181 2,394 2,995 9,365 Emergency (MWh) Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay 11
12 Slow Growth Future Project Results 2024 ATC Slow Growth Future** PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal North La Crosse - Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $40.33 $43.18 $40.15 $40.48 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $42.95 $43.17 $42.92 $42.97 ATC Demand (MWh) 75,387,274 75,387,274 75,387,274 75,387,274 Net Imports (MWh) -1,549,632-4,893,443-1,241,752-1,295,918 % Net Imports of Demand -2.06% -6.49% -1.65% -1.72% Peak Imports (MW) 2,611 2,611 2,555 2,555 Demand Response (MWh) ,099 Emergency (MWh) Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay 12
13 20% Wind Future Project Results 2024 ATC 20% Wind Future* PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal North La Crosse - Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $74.84 $75.05 $71.71 $75.20 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $62.71 $62.78 $62.22 $62.90 ATC Demand (MWh) 96,979,468 96,979,468 96,979,468 96,979,468 Net Imports (MWh) 25,220,985 24,391,056 27,051,383 25,552,622 % Net Imports of Demand 26.01% 25.15% 27.89% 26.35% Peak Imports (MW) 5,834 6,109 6,138 6,047 Demand Response (MWh) 11,992 10,975 17,226 31,520 Emergency (MWh) 16,623 17,108 16,877 21,090 Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) *Utilizes the MISO Wind Transmission Overlay 13
14 Fuel & Investment Limitation Future Project Results 2024 ATC Fuel & Investment Limitation Future** North La Crosse - PROMOD Run Data Base Bain - Zion Lore - Cardinal Cardinal ATC LLMP ($/MWh) $78.98 $79.74 $78.59 $79.59 MISO LLMP ($/MWh) $77.65 $77.71 $77.61 $77.71 ATC Demand (MWh) 86,264,429 86,264,429 86,264,429 86,264,429 Net Imports (MWh) 4,614,795 4,042,980 4,988,987 4,635,992 % Net Imports of Demand 5.35% 4.69% 5.78% 5.37% Peak Imports (MW) 4,220 4,220 4,220 4,220 Demand Response (MWh) 2,666 1,884 3,807 8,202 Emergency (MWh) Interruptibles & DLC (MWh) **Utilizes the MISO Reference Transmission Overlay 14
15 Questions? ATC Economic Planning Dale Burmester Tom Dagenais Arash Ghodsian Chris Hagman Todd Tadych 15
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