Crimes and Violence in Mexico : Evidence from Panel Data. By : Benjamin Widner Manuel L. Reyes-Loya Carl E. Enomoto

Transcription

1 Crimes and Violence in Mexico : Evidence from Panel Data By : Benjamin Widner Manuel L. Reyes-Loya Carl E. Enomoto

2 Introduction Increase in crime for the past five years Lower costs of committing crime may lead to higher benefit of committing crime Low Probability (Pr) of getting caught leads to high Propensity of crime

3 Purpose To identify which crimes resulting in an arrest are significantly greater in Mexico s northern borderstates compared to Mexico s non-border states. To identify which factors lead to more arrests for different types of crimes such as homicide, theft, fraud, property damage, rape, assault, and the carrying of prohibited arms.

4 Historical Background Drug Related Deaths ( ). Annual rise in drug related deaths by 4200 in 2009 Rise in Homicides ( ). Annual rise by 900 in Rise in other crimes like theft, fraud, extortion and kidnapping

5 Current Situation Police faces problems and situations Arroyo Juarez (2007) states that Being a Police Officer is Risky Poor Organization and deficient equipment results in officers death. Plata O Plomo translated as Silver over Lead means Bribe over Bullet Inefficient Judicial System The Impunity rate in Jalisco, on average, is 93% (70 % and 80 % of crimes unreported and 7% go on trial)

6 Model of Crime Rational Actor Model of Political Science and Consumer Model of Economics state that individual will engage in criminal activity if EB (Expected Benefit) exceeds the EC (Expected Cost). {Beckor 1968} EB of crime = Value of Benefit* Pr(Receiving the Benefit) EC of crime= Penalty of Cost* Pr(Being Caught)

7 Model of Crime Framework of EB and EC of committing crime utilize socioeconomic factors State GDP can reflect the crime rate. Higher GDP means more labor market opportunities. Low per capita GDP means low (opportunity) cost of committing a crime Economic conditions of the people affect their criminal behavior. St. Jean (2005) states that per capita increase in Dominica increased the indictable crimes. He found that 8.7% of respondents stated that economic conditions were responsible for their criminal behavior.

8 Criminal Areas The North Border of Mexico- Baja California Norte, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. (Next Slide) Violence in these areas is because lords of one or more cartels compete for the drug smuggling corridor The fund raising for these cartels may be lead to more crimes such as extortion, fraud and kidnapping Drug related violence distracts the security forces which increase the other kinds of criminal activity in Mexico Northern States

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10 Model of Crime and Criminal Areas Higher incarceration rates means higher probability of being caught and imprisoned Family and marriage also play a important role. Unwed fathers commit more crimes because they have high school dropout and unemployment rates. Also, EC is lower for unwed fathers Levitt (2004 ) states that increase in number of police reduce crime (1) EC of crime increases (2) Larger percentage of arrests made

11 Model of Crime and Criminal Areas Hence, effectiveness of the police cannot be measured only by the number of arrests made, but also by the number of crimes that were not committed because of the presence of police.

12 Data and Methods A behavioral model explaining the influence of socioeconomic factors on the incidence of crime in Mexico.

13 Data and Methods Panel data set of 160 observations. Each observation corresponds to an specific state in Mexico at a different year, from 2004 to There are 32 states in Mexico. An observation is specified as follows:

14 Data and Methods Crime(it)= Number of offenders ( inhbt.) Gdp (it)= Real per capita GDP (2003 Mi. pesos) Border(it)= Dummy (1=North,0 otherwise) Inmates(it)= Prison inmates (% total population) Birthsngl(it)= Births to single mother(%population) Security (it)= Federal Grants for security U(it) = Stochastic disturbance

15 Data and Methods The coefficients associated with socioeconomic explanatory variables on crime incidence in Mexico were recovered by means of pooled OLS estimation. Possible simultaneity between incarceration rates and incidence of crime corrected by the use of the instrumental variable Inmates (it). One equation per each type of crime as the dependent variable. Socioeconomic variables are the same for all the equations.

16 Findings First of all, no clues of mullticollinearity among regressors. Overall, significance of coefficients associated with the regressors in the model. Direction of effects of socioeconomic variables varies according to each type of crime.

17 Findings Effects of GDP on Crime Incidence in Mexico Positive effects of higher per-capita-gdp rates on the number of arrests in Mexico due to theft. Higher values of this indicator stand for increases in real income and employment. In general, few crimes are expected as the probabilities of being caught increases as well.

18 Findings Crime rates related to location in Mexico A significant coefficient for the dummy variable in the model suggests higher rates of arrest in the North of the country in those crimes associated with theft, property damage, and carrying of prohibited arms. Carrying arms outside the law is a complementary activity to drug trafficking, a recurrent problem in Northern Mexico. Thus, such a high correlation is expected.

19 Findings Rates of incarceration and crime incidence A negative effect is observed between higher numbers of inmates in the jails and amount of crime of all kinds in Mexico. To illustrate, 1% increase in the rate of incarceration would lead to a reduction of the number of arrests due to assault in the number of 674.

20 Findings Crime in Mexico associated to single mother births Only one type of crime (homicide) stands apart due to the influence of more children born from single mothers in the population. Result in agreement with past literature. The rationale is that children from single mothers, e.g. unwed fathers, show increased tendencies to involve in illegal activities, crime included.

21 Findings Security investment and Crime Prevention in Mexico Marked influence of more monies directed to public security in crime deterrence in all but one type of crime, carrying of illegal arms. Reductions in the number of arrests due to additional one thousand pesos federal invested in security would lead to 35 additional arrests due to rape, or 653 due to theft.

22 Conclusions A model of crime allows to determine the effects of socioeconomic variables on number of alleged offenders registered in court for 5 different types of crime. Increasing income per capita lead to more effective enforcement against theft. Carrying prohibited arms, activity related to illegal trade of drugs, is the crime more recurrent in Mexico s northern border states.

23 Conclusions Increased number of inmates is positively related to reduction of all types of crime considered in this study. Births to single mothers in higher numbers would explain an elevated number of arrests with homicide as the primary cause. Federal grants to each of the 32 states in Mexico have brought about a rise in the number of arrests for homicide, theft, property damage, fraud, rape, and assault.

24 Conclusions Protective measures already taken, such as enforcing public instances, spending on public security, and promoting economic growth, have proven their effectiveness in deterring crime...however,

25 Conclusions The public perceptions about inadequacy of the system in the integral control of crime at every stage remain pessimistic. Low rates of crime report (25%, 99-05) Prisons in Mexico operating at full capacity. Disproportion in the inmate population regarding race and social status. Disappointing impunity due to an obsolete judicial system ( 3.3% of offenders who are actually punished)