Politics of Fear: Parties' Scare Tactics Bode Ill for Cambodian Election

Transcription

1 Politics of Fear: Parties' Scare Tactics Bode Ill for Cambodian Election By Raphael Pura Staff Reporter 20 May 1993 The Asian Wall Street Journal (Copyright (c) 1993, Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) NEW OARAL, Cambodia -- On a sunbaked patch of barren ground outside this scruffy village, the local office of the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia stands abandoned, a relic of good intentions gone wrong in this starcrossed country. The building recently housed U.N. electoral workers and policemen, part of the 20,000-strong contingent here to implement a 1991 peace accord among warring Cambodian factions that was to culminate with the election of a new government and end two decades of conflict and chaos. Now, the doors of the U.N. office gape open; one has been blasted away by a Khmer Rouge grenade. Inside, desks and cupboards have been ransacked. The stumps of bullet-riddled ceiling fans hang from above. Scattered amid the debris on the floor are Khmer-language pamphlets and posters urging Cambodians to vote in the national election that begins Sunday. But few of the 5,900 eligible voters in this part of Kompong Speu province 60 kilometers southwest of Phnom Penh are likely to cast ballots. After the Khmer Rouge attack, which killed one U.N. peacekeeper and injured seven others, electoral officials won't be setting up a polling site in the area. Threats of reprisals directed at local villagers by troops of Prime Minister Hun Sen's State of Cambodia regime, known as SOC, have ended electioneering by other Cambodian parties. "We can't have any campaign there anymore, not even in secret," says Hom Hor, a 28-year-old worker for Funcinpec, the strongest political party opposing the incumbent government. He says SOC forces accuse his party's followers of collaborating with the Khmer Rouge, which rejects the election and vows to disrupt it. What happened here illustrates the dilemma dogging the $2 billion U.N. effort to restore peace to Cambodia, the largest such

2 operation ever undertaken by the world body. The U.N. is determined to push ahead with the six-day Cambodian election on the grounds that the vote still offers the best hope for ordinary Cambodians to have a say in their political fate. But the election will take place in an atmosphere of fear and violence that could fatally flaw the credibility of the poll and plunge Cambodia into a fresh round of political uncertainty and renewed conflict. U.N. officials concede that Khmer Rouge hostility and SOC intimidation of opposition parties have undermined the peace accord's original aim of creating a "politically neutral environment" for the election. Security concerns have prompted Untac, as the U.N. contingent is known, to trim the number of polling sites it will open to about 1,500 from 1,800. That could deprive 20% to 30% of the more than 4.7 million Cambodians who registered to vote of a chance to do so. More would-be voters may be frightened away by Khmer Rouge warnings of fresh attacks when the poll opens. "Cambodians really want the election," declares Theo Noel, Untac's electoral chief in Kompong Cham, Cambodia's most populous province, where the number of polling sites has been reduced to 217 from 310. "But if they have to choose between the election and their lives, they'll choose their lives." Still, senior Untac officials are banking on enough Cambodians defying the danger to obtain a turnout large and representative enough to be certified "reasonably" free and fair by U.N. electoral officers and the 950 international observers who arrived here this week. Untac chief Yasushi Akashi predicts that "more than a majority" of the electorate will vote. "I think it will be an acceptable election in the light of the circumstances in which we find ourselves," he says. "Even if you postponed it, there's no guarantee that conditions will improve, conditions might worsen." Twenty political parties are contesting the election, including the Hun Sen government's Cambodian Peoples' Party, or CPP, and its main rival, Funcinpec, the abbreviation for the party founded by popular Prince Norodom Sihanouk and now led by his son, Prince Norodom Ranariddh. The poll will decide the composition of a 120- member constituent assembly, which, in turn, must draft a constitution before Untac's 18-month mandate expires in August. Untac officials say the election results probably won't be known until early June.

3 Both Hun Sen and Prince Ranariddh assert that their parties will win an outright majority in the vote, with Hun Sen claiming that the CPP has the support of 60% to 70% of the electorate. But independent political analysts caution that it's difficult to gauge the sentiments of Cambodian voters, who have been traumatized into public reticence by years of repressive authoritarian rule. Because of widespread coercion, the CPP's better-attended rallies aren't necessarily an accurate indicator of support. "I don't think anyone will get two-thirds or even a majority of the vote," says a Western diplomat who has long tracked Cambodian affairs. "More likely, you'll get a result that will require some kind of coalition." (The new constitution will require a two-thirds vote of the assembly.) Some diplomats and Untac officials believe that the CPP -- which has used the government's army, police and media to intimidate and condemn the opposition -- will emerge with at least a plurality. The party's main issue is fear of the radical Marxist Khmer Rouge, which ruled from 1975 to That's an emotive topic for Cambodians who lived through the bloody years when more than one million people perished under the party's reclusive leader, Pol Pot. CPP leaders play the Khmer Rouge trump card again and again. Appearing at a typical rally in his home province of Kompong Cham, Hun Sen tells a well-organized village audience of about 1,500 that only the CPP and the Phnom Penh army can prevent a return of the Khmer Rouge. A vote for Funcinpec, he asserts, is a vote for the Khmer Rouge, declaring that "If you go to the other parties, you will die. Only one party (the CPP) can guarantee survival." Such speeches are later aired on state-controlled television and radio, giving a wide audience to Phnom Penh's fear campaign. Opposition parties lack the equivalent media machinery to counter such allegations and must rely on an Untac TV channel that went into full service earlier this month. Untac officials, diplomats and opposition party workers say the CPP has augmented its campaign with widespread intimidation. Opposition parties allege that SOC police and CPP political thugs have killed or wounded scores of their workers before and during the campaign. Killings and attacks have continued as the poll

4 nears. Threats of retribution are commonplace. For example, Funcinpec's provincial chief in Kompong Cham, Nuon Ninara, says SOC police warn "every village, every commune to stay away from our rallies or they will confiscate their goods, their land, after the election." CPP operatives have also spread rumors that the Hun Sen government has high-tech means of discovering who votes against it, including spy-in-the-sky satellites, hidden cameras and encoded pens. Untac, proud of its efforts to ensure a secret vote, commissioned a TV spot to counter the rumors. Despite such harassment, many independent analysts think Funcinpec, in particular, could attract a substantial vote if election violence doesn't increase further. The party has a wide national reach and the support of former monarch Prince Sihanouk's large following in the country, particularly in urban areas. The party hits at the rampant corruption in the SOC regime and its abuses of democratic rights. It also criticizes Hun Sen's close links to the widely disliked Vietnamese, who installed his government in power. But the key attraction remains Funcinpec's links to Prince Sihanouk, who has been cool to the U.N.-run ballot and will sit out the poll in Beijing. Although the prince currently serves as Cambodia's interim head of state and is nominally neutral, many Cambodians view him as the only leader who can engage the Khmer Rouge politically and, perhaps, bring peace to the country. Funcinpec campaign posters and pamphlets stress the family ties between Prince Sihanouk and look-alike son, Prince Ranariddh. Most of the election scenarios bandied about by Cambodians and foreign analysts in Phnom Penh have downsides, in part because they leave the belligerent Khmer Rouge outside the equation. A strong CPP win, for example, virtually ensures prolonged guerrilla war with the Khmer Rouge and could provoke Funcinpec and other opposition parties to denounce the legitimacy of the poll. Conversely, many observers doubt whether the SOC's entrenched leaders, backed by a 150,000-man police force and army, could accept outright defeat by Funcinpec or a subsequently formed opposition coalition. A close race in which neither the CPP nor Funcinpec scores a dominant victory could point to some type of coalition government,

5 but some analysts question its durability, given the personal animosities that divide the parties' leaders. In such an event, Prince Sihanouk might seek a position of power by offering himself as a reconciler of all factions. Electoral analysis may count for little, however, if the election's already-tarnished credibility is shattered by a promised fresh surge in Khmer Rouge violence aimed at voters, Untac or both in the next few days. An original signee of the peace accord, the communist faction has subsequently rejected key provisions, contending that Untac has failed to prevent important SOC government ministries from abusing their powers and failed to expel thousands of illegal Vietnamese settlers who the Khmer Rouge insists remain in Cambodia. Analysts say a discredited election would keep the Khmer Rouge on the political stage and prevent marginalization by an internationally recognized new government. They say the Khmer Rouge's terror strategy conceivably could reduce voter turnout in some provinces to unacceptably low percentages. Opinions vary, but most Untac officials and military analysts doubt whether the Khmer Rouge, which has an estimated 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers concentrated in the west and northwest, has the clout to deal the election a knockout blow. Deputy Untac military commander Brig. Gen. Robert Rideau contends that the guerrillas lack the coordination, firepower and reach to derail the balloting. But he acknowledges that a wellexecuted campaign of selective attacks and threats could frighten many Cambodians away from the poll. "This is the worst-case situation, but I don't think they will be able to do it," he says. He notes that the Khmer Rouge has been relatively quiet since a series of highprofile attacks ended earlier this month. "I don't think they want to kill Untac staff," says Thailand's ambassador in Phnom Penh, Sunai Bunyasiriphant. "If they want to preserve a political future, they can't attack the international community." Nonetheless, the Khmer Rouge has shaken both Untac and the Hun Sen regime with its bellicose stance in recent weeks. The anti-election campaign, which included a psychologically potent early-morning raid on Siem Reap earlier this month, has been aimed mainly at SOC targets. Although several Untac military and

6 civilian personnel have been killed or injured in attacks such as that on New Oaral, only one skirmish between Khmer Rouge and Untac troops has occurred in the past week. But SOC and Untac officials say more trouble may be brewing. Khmer Rouge troops have fanned deeper into provinces such as Kompong Cham and Kompong Speu, bringing with them fresh arms and supplies. Many regional commanders who had some contacts with Untac or local SOC counterparts have been replaced by new officers less inclined to fraternize with the enemy. Wherever the Khmer Rouge troops go, they warn Cambodians not to vote and sometimes pass warnings to Untac electoral staff to retreat from areas under their influence. The Hun Sen government and many ordinary Cambodians appear to take the Khmer Rouge threat seriously. Hun Sen has publicly predicted Khmer Rouge attacks on other urban areas before or during the poll. At a press conference Wednesday, he said: "This is the last breath of the Khmer Rouge, and therefore they can't avoid launching their attacks." Armored cars have appeared at several sites around the capital. Clashes between SOC troops and the Khmer Rouge have occurred daily in some parts of the country, notably near Siem Reap, where the Khmer Rouge has tried to shell the airport and has exchanged artillery fire with SOC forces. Meanwhile, many wealthy Cambodians, including the families of SOC officials, have retreated to the capital or gone abroad to wait out the voting in safety. Lines at the passport office are long. Untac has also beefed up security. Armed convoys of white U.N. vehicles now ply the roads. Sandbags, barricades and barbed wire around offices have become the norm. "Now we travel with two cars, (Untac) soldiers and a gun on top," says an Untac electoral supervisor sitting in a ramshackle food stall on the banks of the Mekong River in Kompong Cham province, reviewing plans for polling sites in her district. Last week, a Khmer Rouge unit moved into position two kilometers from her office and warned Untac election workers that they would be killed if they tried to visit the area. "It's pretty frightening," she says. "We may have to sacrifice openness in favor of safety and security," acknowledges Untac chief Mr. Akashi. But he stresses that "If we lose our electoral personnel, we are losing the election

7 itself." As a last-minute security boost, U.S. C141 cargo planes last week flew in thousands of flak jackets and kevlar helmets for Untac and Cambodian electoral staff. And Australia dispatched six Blackhawk combat helicopters capable of night operations, including one medical evacuation chopper. Untac officials say the helicopters will fly with armed weapons systems. The next few days will tell whether the added security is sufficient to protect the poll. In the meantime, some Untac officials find ways to break the tension. "Care to see our wine cellar?" rumbles Vladimir Yulin, an affable former Soviet diplomat who is the Untac provincial chief in Kampong Speu, 10 kilometers from New Oaral. Behind his office, Mr. Yulin proudly displays a freshly built bunker and pulls his staff and visitors together for a group picture. "Take care," he advises, "and don't be in the wrong place at the wrong time."