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1 THE ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY AND BEYOND: Myths and Realities Sanchita Basu Das Sanchita Basu Das is Fellow & Lead Researcher (Eco Affairs), ASEAN Study Centre, ISEAS & Coordinator of Singapore APEC Study Centre November 2015 Soft cover X 9 Extent: 308 pages S$24.90/ US$29.90 Worldwide ASEAN & Economics The year 2015 has special significance for regional economic integration. The ASEAN Community, integrating the political, economic and social aspects of regional cooperation, will complete its first milestone by December Expectations of tangible benefits under an ASEAN Economic Community have attracted much attention though many of the initiatives will be realized post Following the policy of open regionalism, ASEAN has also signed free trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, China, India, Japan and South Korea. It has launched negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement in 2013, with expected breakthrough by end The Southeast Asian economies are also involved in two other regional initiatives. First is the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP), initiated by the United States. As part of the U.S. "pivot to Asia", the TPP is envisioned as a "comprehensive and high- quality" agreement and has concluded its negotiation in October Second, the discussions on regional connectivity have broadened; China has emerged as a recent lead proponent with its proposals for "One Belt, One Road" and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. All these together have implications not only for individual Southeast Asian countries but also for regional trading architecture. To aid in understanding the beginnings, development, and potential of these grand plans, this collection of 22 essays offers a rich analysis of ASEAN's own economic integration and other related initiatives proliferating in the broader Asia- Pacific region. CONTENTS 1. Introduction: The ASEAN Economic Community and Beyond 2. The ASEAN Economic Community: An Economic and Strategic Project 3. Can the ASEAN Economic Community be Achieved by 2015? 4. Goods to Flow Slow and Steady within the ASEAN Economic Community 5. The Limited Impact of the ASEAN Economic Community on Skilled
2 Labour Migration 6. Five Facts about the ASEAN Economic Community 7. Growing Economic Diplomacy in ASEAN: Opportunities and Threats 8. Towards ASEAN Economic Community The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Going Beyond ASEAN + 1 FTAs 10. Comparing ASEAN + 1 FTAs for an effective RCEP 11. Challenges in Negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement 12. The Next Decade in ASEAN- U.S. Economic Relations 13. RCEP and TPP: Comparisons and Concerns 14. The Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP): Economic and Strategic Implications for the Asia- Pacific 15. The Trans- Pacific Partnership as a Tool to Contain China: Myth or Reality? 16. RCEP and TPP: Can they Converge into an FTAAP? 17. Is APEC s Relevance Fading? 18. Promoting Asia s Infrastructure for Regional Trade and Investment 19. Addressing Infrastructure Financing Asia 20. APEC and ASEAN Connectivity: Areas of Mutual Interest and Prospects of Cooperation 21. China s Three- pronged Strategy on Regional Connectivity 22. Can the China- led AIIB support the ASEAN Connectivity Master Plan?
3 "#$%&'()*+,'(-%./01$+*/%( The 36th Singapore Lecture Xi Jinping FORGING A STRONG PARTNERSHIP TO ENHANCE PROSPERITY OF ASIA "#$%&'()* &)8).$)/ * 5,7(8,-)/=iB\=B2\H:=3\:B\B 9,/.'(* :;?=; >?()@(* HHC'D)E "/F8)* 5G2=%=1IJ5G2:%=1 KFDL(E* M,/NOPFO) 5#$Q)8(* YLF@'\R5>R+K)N'(F,@EW ",NF(F8EW>8,@,.F8E "39@A 23 &;6B5C=D9E9F2>D90 G)8H+'H%&"8)'H I%8"'$8&#+I")$'#%'($ I8)&I$8+"-)G%&+% -&(.&#/�( ( %<=>2239%,"#)8 lfe>?8)nn)@8x<f^f@cf@dfe"/)efo)@(,7(l)"),cn)kek)c#$nf8,7 YLF@'% %<=>2239/))? ZL) 5F@D'C,/) T)8(#/) FE O)EFD@)O (, C/,-FO) (L),CC,/(#@F(X 7,/ OFE(F@D#FEL)OE('()E.)@WE8L,N'/EW'@OP/F()/E'@O,(L)/EF.FN'/NXLFDLNX b#'nf7f)of@of-fo#'neec)8f'nf[f@df@$'@`f@d'@o8,..)/8)wf@()/@'(f,@'n )8,@,.F8E'@O7F@'@8)'@OCLFN,E,CLF8'N'@OP,/NOE(/'()DF8'77'F/E(, -FEF( 5F@D'C,/)% ZL) C/)E)@8),7 E#8L ).F@)@( C)/E,@'NF(F)E PFNN 'NN,P 5F@D'C,/)'@EW)EC)8F'NNX(L)X,#@D)/)?)8#(F-)'@OO)8FEF,@\.'`)/EF@ $,(L(L)C#$NF8'@OC/F-'()E)8(,/EW(,L'-)(L)$)@)7F(,7)?C,E#/)(, m(l/,#dl(l)t)8(#/)w()n)-fe)oofe8#eef,@ew'@oc/f-'()8,@e#n('(f,@e mn)'o)/e,7(l,#dl('@o`@,pn)od)f@-'/f,#e7f)noew(l)/)$x)@'$nf@d (L).(,PFO)@(L)F/)?C)/F)@8)'@OC)/EC)8(F-)E% c@i+,-).$)/0123w(l)a:(l5f@d'c,/)t)8(#/)p'eo)nf-)/)o$xlfe >?8)NN)@8X<F^F@CF@DW"/)EFO)@(,7(L)"),CN)kEK)C#$NF8,7YLF@'#@O)/ (L) OFE(F@D#FEL)O YL'F/.'@ELFC,7 h/ Z), YL)) l)'@w &)C#(X "/F.) hf@fe()/'@oy,,/of@'(f@dhf@fe()/7,/+'(f,@'n5)8#/f(xw5f@d'c,/)% "#$%&'()*+%&',%--./%01*&'.23-%445647,%896:6;<#=77<>.?96:6<<:6=:5@A.*892)BC)&*DE*C%.CF%G)FC' //782/39*8'$89'":98;(
4 "#$%&'()*+,'(-%./01$+*/%( The 37th Singapore Lecture Narendra Modi INDIA S SINGAPORE STORY "#$%&'()* &)8).$)/ * 5,7( 8,-)/=iB\=B2\H:=3\iA\0 9,/.'(* :;?=; >?()@(* A:C'D)E "/F8)* 5G2=%=1IJ5G2:%=1 KFDL(E* M,/NOPFO) 5#$Q)8(* YLF@'\R5>R+K)N'(F,@EW ",NF(F8EW>8,@,.F8E "39@J 23 &;6B5C=D9E9F2>D90 +'.+%K&&+'H%I)8$&")8-1"23#42"(564&( ( %<=>2239%,"#)8 lfe>?8)nn)@8x+'/)@o/'h,ofw"/f.)hf@fe()/,74@of'% %<=>2239/))? ZL) 5F@D'C,/) T)8(#/) FE O)EFD@)O (, C/,-FO) (L),CC,/(#@F(X 7,/ OFE(F@D#FEL)OE('()E.)@WE8L,N'/EW'@OP/F()/E'@O,(L)/EF.FN'/NXLFDLNX b#'nf7f)of@of-fo#'neec)8f'nf[f@df@$'@`f@d'@o8,..)/8)wf@()/@'(f,@'n )8,@,.F8E'@O7F@'@8)'@OCLFN,E,CLF8'N'@OP,/NOE(/'()DF8'77'F/E(, -FEF( 5F@D'C,/)% ZL) C/)E)@8),7 E#8L ).F@)@( C)/E,@'NF(F)E PFNN 'NN,P 5F@D'C,/)'@EW)EC)8F'NNX(L)X,#@D)/)?)8#(F-)'@OO)8FEF,@\.'`)/EF@ $,(L(L)C#$NF8'@OC/F-'()E)8(,/EW(,L'-)(L)$)@)7F(,7)?C,E#/)(, m(l/,#dl(l)t)8(#/)w()n)-fe)oofe8#eef,@ew'@oc/f-'()8,@e#n('(f,@e mn)'o)/e,7(l,#dl('@o`@,pn)od)f@-'/f,#e7f)noew(l)/)$x)@'$nf@d (L).(,PFO)@(L)F/)?C)/F)@8)'@OC)/EC)8(F-)E% ZL) Ai (L 5F@D'C,/) T)8(#/) P'E O)NF-)/)O $X lfe >?8)NN)@8X +'/)@O/' h,ofw "/F.) hf@fe()/,7 4@OF'W,@ 0A +,-).$)/ 0123 #@O)/ (L) OFE(F@D#FEL)O YL'F/.'@ELFC,7 h/ ZL'/.'@ 5L'@.#D'/'(@'.W &)C#(X "/F.) hf@fe()/ '@O Y,,/OF@'(F@D hf@fe()/ 7,/ >8,@,.F8 '@O 5,8F'N ",NF8F)EW5F@D'C,/)% "#$%&'()*+%&',%--./%01*&'.23-%445647,%896:6;<#=77<>.?96:6<<:6=:5@A.*892)BC)&*DE*C%.CF%G)FC' //782/39*8'$89'":98;(
5 THE FOREIGN PRESS CHANGING PERCEPTIONS OF THAILAND S MONARCHY PUANGTHONG R. PAWAKAPAN Puangthong R. Pawakapan is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University. November 2015 Soft cover During the Cold War, well- informed foreign journalists did not naïvely accept the Thai official narrative that the monarchy was strictly above politics. They were well aware of the influence and political power of the palace. However, they believed the institution was necessary for Thailand to survive the communist threat, oppressive military leaders and corrupt politicians. For decades, their coverage helped promote the benign image of the institution internationally. A5 Extent: 48 pages S$12.90/US$9.90 Worldwide Media, Thai Politics
6 HIZBUT TAHRIR INDONESIA IN 2014: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DISCONTENT GWENAEL NJOTO- FEILLARD Gwenaël Njoto- Feillard is Visiting Fellow at the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. December 2015 Soft cover A5 Extent: 32 pages S$12.90/ US$9.90 Worldwide Indonesia Politics During the 2014 presidential election, Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI), an organization committed to creating a global Islamic caliphate that would replace democracy, rejected both Joko Widodo s and Prabowo Subianto s candidacy. However, as in previous legislative elections, its members were allowed to vote for parliamentary candidates that would push for the application of Islamic law. HTI has been compelled to clarify its position regarding the emergence of support of IS in Indonesia. It clearly condemns IS s use of violence as a means of establishing the caliphate, but at the same time, it uses the issue to reinforce its anti- Western narrative. While HTI s transnational programme and opposition to democracy appear antithetical to Indonesia s current political situation, the organization may still find ways to mobilize in certain sectors of Indonesian society. HTI s strategy of expansion is flexible enough for it to adapt to recent developments and prudently adjust its discourse while holding firm to its ideological foundations. As long as economic development is perceived to yield inequalities and discrimination, the transnational organization will continue to have a foothold in Indonesia. It is probable that HTI will not embark on a path of political accommodation as it aims exclusively at the market of discontent within Indonesian society.
7 THAILAND S POST- COUP RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND AMERICA: MORE BEIJING, LESS WASHINGTON IAN STOREY Ian Storey is Senior Fellow at the ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute and editor of Contemporary Southeast Asia December 2015 Soft cover A5 Extent: 36 pages S$12.90/US$9.90 Worldwide International Relations, Politics Since the Thai military seized power in May 2014, Thailand s relations with the United States have significantly deteriorated, while the People s Republic of China (PRC) has quickly emerged as the Kingdom s closest Great Power partner. U.S.- Thai defence cooperation has been the main casualty of the coup, and represents a setback for the Obama administration s pivot or re- balance towards Asia, the success of which depends in large part on strengthening bilateral alliances and increasing America s presence in Asia. Even before the coup, the U.S.- Thai alliance was facing difficulties. Since Washington announced the pivot in 2011, neither civilian nor military leaders in Thailand have evinced genuine support for the strategy. Many Thais consider the pivot to be aimed at containing China, and that Thailand s association with the strategy would be detrimental to the country s positive relations with the PRC. Thailand does not perceive the PRC as a source of strategic instability; to the contrary, Thais overwhelmingly view China as a valuable economic and security partner. In contrast to U.S.- Thai relations, Sino- Thai relations have blossomed since the putsch. Beijing s hands off approach to Thailand s domestic political situation is much appreciated by the junta, and has allowed the two sides to focus on strengthening economic ties and defence cooperation. The United States has repeatedly called on the junta to hold new elections, and emphasized that relations cannot return to normal until civilian rule is restored. However, a return to democracy in Thailand is not in prospect any time soon. The rejection of the draft constitution in September 2015 means that the armed forces will retain political power until at least 2017 and conceivably beyond. As a result, U.S.- Thai relations will continue to experience strain while Sino- Thai cooperation strengthens.
8 GANGA TO MEKONG: A CULTURAL VOYAGE THROUGH TEXTILES HEMA DEVARE Hema Devare, a freelance writer and playwright, has written both fiction and non- fiction in Marathi, English and Hindi. November 2015 Hard cover X 7.5 Text: 197 pages S$39.90/US$32.90 Worldwide except South Asia (Co- publication: Manohar) Textiles have been the binding factor in the cultural history of India and Southeast Asia from time immemorial. As the foremost currency they were carried by the traders from the banks of river Ganga to the fertile areas around the river Mekong and to the rich spice islands of Suvarnadwipa, Indonesia. Over the centuries, these textiles turned into vehicles of culture that built the foundation for an enduring multi- layered and multi- coloured relationship. The painted textiles from the Coromandel coast, the block- printed fabrics and the double- ikat patola from Gujarat enticed Southeast Asian royalty and masses alike. These trade textiles, considered ritually powerful and imbued with magical qualities played an integral role in binding India with Southeast Asia while becoming a part of the regional folklore, ceremonies and rituals. Over time they were seamlessly assimilated into the local culture. This cultural amalgam was here to stay as solid as the rocks of Borobudur and Konark and as intricately woven as the double- ikat patola, which is the cultural legacy in Southeast Asia. CONTENTS 1. Weaves of History 2. Voyage through Trade 3. Royal Connection 4. Indian Textiles Entering the Realm of Southeast Asian Society 5. Dialogue between the Textile Traditions 6. Patola: A Cultural Legacy Textile, culture, India
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