WTO World Tourism Barometer

Transcription

1 WTO World Tourism Barometer Volume, No. 1, January 3: continuing trends or transition year? In 3, international tourism lived through another considerably difficult year in which three negative factors came together: the Iraq conflict, SARS and a persistently weak economy. The Iraq conflict and the preceding high level of uncertainty depressed worldwide travel in the first quarter of the year. The unexpected outbreak of SARS brought the steady growth of Asia and the Pacific temporarily to an abrupt halt, causing many destinations in the region to welcome less than half of their usual number of arrivals in the months of April and May. Even though tourists quickly started to return after the virus was contained, it proved impossible to compensate the losses fully in the remainder of the year. With the long-awaited economic recovery only starting to become visible in the fourth quarter, the state of the economy did not help much either to stimulate tourism demand. Although conditions improved notably throughout the year, and positive figures generally started to return in the second half of 3, recovery has not been sufficient to save the year for all destinations. Preliminary estimates of full year results show that worldwide the volume of international tourism as measured in international tourist arrivals slid back by a bit more than 1% to 69 million, corresponding to a contraction by some 8.6 million arrivals on the volume of 73 million. This result is closely linked to the unexpected drop by 1 million arrivals (-9%) suffered by Asia and the Pacific due by the SARS panic. Furthermore, the Americas also recorded a decrease (-%), while Europe just consolidated its figure (%). Finally, the Middle East and Africa have recovered quickly during the year and have in the end not notably been affected by last year s adverse conditions. They actually recorded the best results of all regions, with estimated increases of 1% and % respectively. (See page for more.) Contents Short-term Tourism Data - International Tourism: Arrivals, Receipts and Expenditure - Air Transport 11 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts 1 The Economic Environment 19 This is the third issue of the WTO World Tourism Barometer, an activity of the Market Intelligence and Promotion section of WTO with the aim of monitoring the short-term evolution of tourism in order to provide the tourism sector with adequate and timely information. The WTO World Tourism Barometer is published three times a year (January, June and October). At the outset it contains three permanent elements: an overview of short-term tourism data from destination and generating countries and air transport; the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts with a retrospective and prospective evaluation of tourism performance; and selected economic data relevant for tourism. The objective for future editions of the WTO World Tourism Barometer will be to extend the content and improve coverage gradually over time. The WTO World Tourism Barometer is prepared by the WTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Section. The WTO Secretariat wishes to express its sincere gratitude to all who have participated in the elaboration of the World Tourism Barometer, in particular all institutions that supplied data and the members of the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts, for their valuable and decisive contribution. See also the Facts & Figures section of the WTO website at < for more information and previous issues. We welcome your comments and suggestions at <barom@world-tourism.org>, tel / fax WTO Panel of Tourism Experts The over 18 specialists consulted worldwide in the framework of the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts confirm a clear positive prospects for international tourism in. (See for more on page 1) Much better Better Equal Worse Much worse Average 3 1 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts 3.. Evaluation 3 Prospects World Tourism Organization -- Capitán Haya, 8 Madrid, Spain Tel (3) / Fax (3) barom@world-tourism.org Copyright World Tourism Organization, Madrid All Rights Reserved. The contents of this issue may be quoted provided the source is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. World Tourism Organization (WTO) 1

2 Short-term Tourism Data International Tourism: Arrivals, Receipts and Expenditure On the level of subregions a number of interesting reversals in trends can be noted. Whereas the previous top performers North-East Asia (-9%) and South East Asia (-1%) suffered severe losses, South Asia (+17%) made a strong comeback after two difficult years. Oceania (-%) also reversed sign, but with a lesser contrast. South America (+1%) and the Caribbean (+8%) rebounded strongly on the negative figures of the past two years. North America on the other hand was the only subregion to record a loss (-7%) for the third year in a row. In Europe it were Western Europe and Southern/Mediterranean Europe that felt the effects of the combination of a weak economy -with some of the major European source markets in or close to recession- and the strong Euro. As a result, international tourist arrivals to Western Europe declined by 1%, while Southern Europe, that till now had been virtually untouched by 11 September and its aftermath, closed the year just flat. As for travel behaviour, last year has shown very much a continuation of trends apparent in previous years. 3 has been another year with the stress on destinations relatively close to home, stimulating individual (not organised) travel. All three negative factors dealt with, constrained long-haul traffic considerably. It was neither a great year for business tourism. Tour operators kept facing a difficult environment. Late booking persisted and Do It Yourself is consolidating as means of planning trips, strongly stimulated by the possibilities offered by the The data included in this section has been compiled by the WTO Secretariat in November, December 3 and the first weeks of January based on preliminary data as disseminated by the institutions of the various countries and territories through websites, press releases, bulletins or provided through direct contacts with officials. Whenever necessary, updated data will be included over time without further notice. In the tables on International Tourist Arrivals for the various WTO regions, series are chosen that can serve as an indicator for the evolution of tourism volume in selected destinations. The monthly series represented do not in all cases coincide with the annual series usually reported for the various countries (e.g. visitor arrivals or nights instead of tourist arrivals) and sometimes only relate to a part of the total tourism flow (e.g. air traffic, specific entry points). See the Series indication and the notes for more information. The data on International Tourism Receipts offers additional information on the evolution of inbound tourism, while the data on International Tourism Expenditure serves as an indicator for the evolution of outbound tourism. Both series correspond to respectively the Travel Credit and Travel Debit item in the Services section of the Balance of Payments. In order not to be influenced by exchange rate changes, the percentages included in the tables are based on values in local currency, except where otherwise indicated. Countries that are not included in this overview, but with monthly data for 3 at their disposal, are kindly requested to please contact the WTO Secretariat at barom@world-tourism.org. Internet. Low-cost airlines continued their advance, most notably in Europe. According to the international transport and tourism consultancy Airclaims low-cost carriers represented in 3 11% of the seat capacity offered within Europe, up from % in, while in the UK market the percentage already reaches 31% up from 11% in. % change over the same month of the previous year Evolution of international tourist arrivals by month, 3* Jan. Febr. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa & Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) World Tourism Organization (WTO)

3 With this year s results it is the second time since 11 September that tourism worldwide declines. In 1 the number of international tourist arrivals decreased by.%, while closed with a modest increase of.7%. Looking back on the last three years 1 to 3 some interesting observations can be made. Comparing the current number of international tourist arrivals with the millennium top year, worldwide still a net increase remains of 7 million arrivals (+1%). Except for the Americas, the evolution has been positive in all regions, although only very modestly in the case of Europe (+%) and Asia and the Pacific (+3%). The real surprise is the extraordinary performance of the Middle East, gaining 6. million international tourist arrivals (+7%). In spite of the difficult conditions, countries in the region such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Oman consistently succeeded to improve results, not in the least helped by a strong intra-regional demand. The big loser in terms of tourism volume is North America, accumulating a loss over the three years of 1 million arrivals (-17%). The United States, as both major inbound destination and outbound market in the Americas, is still seriously struggling to overcome the impact of 11 September and the subsequent war on terrorism. Although there are signs of a gradual improvement, for instance the rebound observed in the Caribbean, full recovery is still way off. The second most affected subregion of the events of the past three years is Western Europe with an accumulated loss of 3.8 million arrivals (-3%). Main wrongdoers here have been the loss of long-haul traffic from the Americas and from Asia as well as the weak economy in the region. International Tourist Arrivals by (Sub)region International Tourist Arrivals Market Change Average Change share annual 3* (million) (%) (%) growth (%) over * 199 3* /99 1/ /1 3*/ 9- (Abs.) (%) World Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Southern/Mediterranean Europe Asia and the Pacific North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia Americas North America Caribbean Central America South America Africa North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) World Tourism Organization (WTO) 3

4 Results by Region Europe The economic situation in some of the major generating markets to Europe together with the belligerent conflict in Iraq determined tourism performance in Europe. Some important destinations were particularly affected by the decline in long-haul traffic caused by the war in Iraq, by SARS and by the increasingly weaker USD. Trends of short distance travel were reinforced benefiting countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as domestic tourism, which in some cases proved to be essential to compensate for the losses in inbound tourism. Simultaneously, intraregional traffic was also shaped by the significant expansion of low cost airlines in terms of regional routes and capacity. With many major Western European and Nordic outbound markets in or close to recession, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Switzerland, all passed in 3 through one or more quarters with negative GDP growth destinations in Western and Southern Europe International Tourist Arrivals by Country of Destination Full year Change over same period of the previous year (%) Series /1 3*/ Series YTD Quarters 3* Months 3* (1) (1) (%) (1) () Q1 Q Q3 Q July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Europe ######.3 Andorra TF 3, TF Austria TCE 18,611. TCE Belgium TCE 6,7. TCE Bulgaria TF 3, TF Croatia TCE 6, TCE Cyprus TF, TF Czech Rep TCE, VF Denmark TCE 1, NHS Estonia TF 1,36 3. TF Finland TF, NHS F.Yug.Rp.Macedonia TCE 13.3 TCE France TF 77, NHS Germany TCE 17,969.6 THS Hungary VF/ 1,87 3. VF Iceland TF 78 THS Ireland TF 6, TF Israel TF TF Italy TF 39,799.6 TF Latvia TF VF Liechtenstein THS THS Lithuania TF 1,8 1. TF Malta TF 1, TF Netherlands TCE 9,9 1. TCE Norway TCE 3, NHS Poland TF 13, VF Portugal TF 11,6 -.3 NHS Romania TF 3, Serbia & Montenegro TCE 8 7. TCE Slovakia TCE 1, TCE Slovenia TCE 1, TCE Spain TF 1, TF Sweden TCE/TF 7, NHS Switzerland TF 1, -7. NHS Turkey TF 1, TF United Kingdom VF,18.9 VF Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) TF: International tourist arrivals at frontiers (excluding same-day visitors); VF: International visitor arrivals at frontiers (tourists and same-day visitors); THS: International tourist arrivals at hotels and similar establishments; TCE: International tourist arrivals at collective tourism establishments; NHS: Nights of international tourists in hotels and similar establishments; NCE: Nights of international tourists in collective tourism establishments. () Year to date. World Tourism Organization (WTO)

5 Series (1) International Tourism Receipts International Tourism Expenditure US$ Local currencies (%) US$ Local currencies (%) /1 3* on previous year /1 3* on previous year (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. Europe ###### ###### Austria 11, , Belgium 6, , Bulgaria 1, Croatia $ 3, Cyprus 1, Czech Rep, , Denmark, , Estonia Finland 1, , France 3, , Germany 19, , Greece 9, , Hungary 3, , Ireland 3, , Israel $ 1, , Italy 6, , Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg, , Malta Netherlands 7, , Norway, , Portugal, , Romania Russian Fed $, , Slovakia Slovenia 1, Spain 33, , Sweden, , Switzerland 7, , Turkey $ 9, , United Kingdom sa 17, , Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) All percentages are derived from not seasonally adjusted series in local currencies, unless otherwise indicated: $: US$; :euro; sa: seasonally adjusted series. () Year to date. generally suffered rather sluggish intraregional demand. Of the mentioned source markets, the weakest were Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland, all decreasing expenditure on international tourism by % or over in the nine or ten months over which data is available. The United Kingdom and Ireland were the exceptions among the major European outbound markets, both spending over 6% more on international tourism in the first three quarters of the year. The traditional summer travel flow from North to South was also influenced by the unusually hot and dry summer, with more Northerners staying at home or closer to home. The exchange rates USD/euro and GBP/euro also determined the distribution of flows within Europe, with eurozone countries losing competitiveness to other destinations given the comparatively rising prices due to the continuously appreciating euro. Countries that benefited from this redistribution were among others Croatia (+7% in international arrivals for the period with data available), Slovenia (+%), Turkey (+%), UK (+3%) and Ireland (+%), while traditional holiday destinations such as France (.6% in arrivals at frontiers, -1% in nights in hotels and similar establishments), Italy (-.%), Spain (%,) and Portugal (% in nights in hotels and similar establishments) posted comparatively poor results. Destinations in France and Italy were also specially affected by the decline of traffic from the US and Japan. In the case of France other factors such as strikes and the wave of fires also determined the negative results of the high season. However in terms of international tourism receipts, Spain and Portugal managed to maintain positive results, recording increases of % and 3% respectively for the first nine to ten months of the year, while in Italy and France the decrease in long haul traffic is likely to have contributed to a drop of 3% and % respectively. Many destinations outside the eurozone reinforced their price competitiveness as receipts show an overall positive trend in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Malta, Norway, World Tourism Organization (WTO)

6 Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Asia and the Pacific SARS clearly dominated the results of tourism in Asia and the Pacific in 3. After a positive beginning for most countries in January and February, the following months brought decreases of over %. Although recovery generally came quick, most of the major destinations of the region in North-East and South-East Asia have not been or will not be able to return to end the year with positive figures. From the monthly data it can be observed that destinations in North-East Asia seem to recover more quickly than the South-East Asian destinations. Preliminary full year figures or year to date figures over the first 9, 1 or 11 months (which without doubt will improve somewhat) still show double-digit decreases for many destinations in the two subregions such as Taiwan (pr. of China) (-%), Malaysia (-6%), Indonesia (-1%), Singapore (-19%), Thailand (-13%) and the Republic of Korea (-11%). China and Hong Kong (China) reported International Tourist Arrivals by Country of Destination Full year Change over same period of the previous year (%) Series /1 3*/ Series YTD Quarters 3* Months 3* (1) (1) (%) (1) () Q1 Q Q3 Q July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Asia and the Pacific ###### 8. American Samoa TF VF Australia VF, -.3 VF Bangladesh TF 7. TF Bhutan TF TF Cambodia TF VF air China TF 36, TF Cook Is TF TF Fiji TF TF French Polynesia TF TF Guam TF 1,9-8.7 TF Hong Kong (China) VF 16, VF India TF, TF Indonesia TF, TF(3) Japan TF, TF() Korea, Republic of VF, VF Lao P.D.R. TF 1.3 VF Macao (China) TF 6,6 1. VF Malaysia TF 13,9. TF Maldives TF 8. VF air() Myanmar TF VF air N.Mariana Is TF VF Nepal TF VF air New Caledonia TF 1 3. TF New Zealand VF, VF Palau TF TF Papua New Guinea TF -. VF Philippines TF 1, VF Samoa TF 89.8 TF Singapore TF 6,996. VF Sri Lanka TF TF Taiwan (pr. of China) VF, VF Thailand TF 1, TF Tonga TF VF air Vanuatu TF 9-7. TF Vietnam TF VF Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) See Table on Europe. () Year to date. (3) Foreign arrivals through thirteen selected Ports of Entry () Data obtained from the Japan Tourism Marketing Co, quoting JNTO data () Foreign arrivals at Male Intl Airport World Tourism Organization (WTO) 6

7 preliminary full year figures respectively 1% and 6% below last year s figure, while Macau (China) was one of the exceptions with a 3% increase. The South-Asian destinations by contrast look back on a rather prosperous period. Sri Lanka (+%), Nepal (+%), Maldives (+16%), India (+1%) and Bangladesh (+1%) all posted double-digit increases, leaving behind the two difficult years that preceded. For the destinations of Oceania, the picture is mixed. Australia decreased its number of arrivals till November by 3%, while New Zealand in the same period increased by 1.%. Most of the smaller islands in the Pacific, such as Fiji, French Polynesia, Cook Islands, Palau and Samoa, performed rather well. Guam however decreased by % till October. Series (1) International Tourism Receipts International Tourism Expenditure US$ Local currencies (%) US$ Local currencies (%) /1 3* on previous year /1 3* on previous year (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. Asia and the Pacific 99,77 ###### China $, ,398 Hong Kong (China) 1, , India, , Japan 3, , Korea, Republic of $, , Malaysia 6, , New Zealand, , Philippines $ 1, Singapore, , Sri Lanka Taiwan (pr. of China) $, , Thailand 7, , Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) All percentages are derived from not seasonally adjusted series in local currencies, unless otherwise indicated: $: US$; :euro; sa: seasonally adjusted series. () Year to date. Americas 3 began for the Americas under the spectre of the pending war in Iraq. The United States suffered the impact generated by the conflict with as result that security maintained as main concern. Traffic was also considerably influenced by the change of colours from yellow (elevated) to orange (high) of the US Homeland Security Threat Advisory System Colour Code. Although the situation gradually relaxed, tension resumed a few times during the year and fear has not yet disappeared completely. The number of international tourist arrivals to the interior (excluding arrivals from Mexico staying in the border zone) till October still showed a decrease of 6%. The US-Mexican border traffic is affected by the (perception of an) increased hassle factor. Mexico saw a shift from short trips just over the border to longer trips to the interior. The overall number of tourist arrivals decreased by 6% in the period until November, while the number of arrivals to the interior and the number of cruise passengers increased by % and 3% respectively. Receipts were also up by 7%. In Canada, though results from March on were mainly determined by war and SARS, other disruptive factors also influenced tourism in the country: a strong Canadian dollar stimulated outbound tourism while restricting traffic from the US, the blackout in the Northeast coast and the fires in British Columbia and Alberta hit the high season months. Results till November indicate a decrease of 13% in international arrivals. Price competitiveness both in the European and in the American market benefited destinations in the Caribbean as more Americans saw them as a safe and inexpensive alternative to Europe and to Asia. Five of the major Caribbean destinations, Puerto Rico (+%), Cuba (+13%), Dominican Republic (+18%), Bahamas (+1%) and Jamaica (+7%), all recorded increases, while most of the smaller destinations also recovered positive ground. Tourism in countries of Central and South America was also positively influenced by the exchange rate USD/Euro, as currencies in the region are generally dependent on the American dollar. Apart from Guatemala and El Salvador, most Central American destinations expect to close the year positively. With some minor exceptions all South American destinations with data available reported significant increases, although not in all cases sufficient to make up for the losses of previous years. The relative political and economic stability regained by Argentina benefited tourism performance in the neighbouring destinations of Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil. Peru, Colombia and Ecuador also performed well. World Tourism Organization (WTO) 7

8 International Tourist Arrivals by Country of Destination Full year Change over same period of the previous year (%) Series /1 3*/ Series YTD Quarters 3* Months 3* (1) (1) (%) (1) () Q1 Q Q3 Q July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Americas ###### -. Anguilla TF TF Antigua,Barb TF VF air Argentina TF, TF Aruba TF TF Bahamas TF TF air Barbados TF TF Belize TF 1.8 TF Bermuda TF 8.1 VF air Bonaire TF 3. TF air Br.Virgin Is TF TF Canada TF,7 1.9 TF Cayman Islands TF TF Chile TF 1, TF Colombia TF Costa Rica TF 1, TF Cuba TF 1, TF Curaçao TF TF Dominica TF TF Dominican Rp TF, VF air Ecuador VF VF El Salvador TF VF Grenada TF TF Guatemala TF Guyana TF TF Honduras TF TF.1.1 Jamaica TF 1, TF Martinique TF TF Mexico TF 19, TF Montserrat TF TF Nicaragua TF TF Panama TF 3.9 TF Paraguay TF TF Peru TF TF Puerto Rico TF 3, THS Saba TF TF Saint Lucia TF TF St.Maarten TF VF air St.Vincent,Grenadines TF TF Trinidad Tbg TF 38. TF United States TF 1, TF(3) Uruguay TF 1, VF() US.Virgin Is TF THS Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) See Table on Europe. () Year to date. (3) Excluding Mexican visitors not travelling beyond the miles U.S. border zone () Excluding Uruguayan nationals residing abroad World Tourism Organization (WTO) 8

9 Series (1) International Tourism Receipts International Tourism Expenditure US$ Local currencies (%) US$ Local currencies (%) /1 3* on previous year /1 3* on previous year (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. Americas ###### 87,38 Argentina $ Aruba Canada 9, , Colombia $ , Costa Rica $ 1, Dominican Rp $, Ecuador $ El Salvador $ Mexico $;sa 8, , Panama United States sa 66, , Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) All percentages are derived from not seasonally adjusted series in local currencies, unless otherwise indicated: $: US$; :euro; sa: seasonally adjusted series. () Year to date. Africa and the Middle East The comparatively limited number of destinations with data available rather consistently indicate a positive evolution. After having reached a low in March most destinations succeed to recuperate satisfactorily. In North Africa, Morocco and Tunisia had a good summer season, with a particular strong August, ending the period with 6% and % increases respectively. Price may have played an important part in results as tourism receipts for the first three quarters still show a slightly negative outcome for both countries. Egypt, on the contrary, managed to post positive results both in terms of arrivals (+17%) and receipts (+%, expressed in USD), probably as a result of the increase in demand from Middle East source markets. Furthermore, Lebanon reported a 6% increase in visitor International Tourist Arrivals by Country of Destination Full year Change over same period of the previous year (%) Series /1 3*/ Series YTD Quarters 3* Months 3* (1) (1) (%) (1) () Q1 Q Q3 Q July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Africa 9,. Algeria VF Angola TF TF 33. Ethiopia TF TF 16. Kenya TF VF (3) 3.3 Mauritius TF TF Morocco TF, TF Seychelles TF VF South Africa VF 6, 1.9 VF Tanzania TF Tunisia TF, TF Middle East 7, Egypt TF, TF Jordan TF 1, TF Lebanon TF VF Qatar TF VF air Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) See Table on Europe. () Year to date. (3) Tourist arrivals in the International Airports of Jomo Kenyatta, Mobassa and Moi, as well as by Cruise Ships World Tourism Organization (WTO) 9

10 arrivals, while Jordan closed the year with a decrease of 3%. It is interesting to note that in the Muslim countries of both Africa and the Middle East the month of November shows a peak because of travel related with the end of the Ramadan, while the two preceding months were generally much weaker. Africa generally benefited from the fact that some of the sub-saharan destinations were considered as safe havens. South Africa saw an increase of 3% in tourist arrivals until September, but demand has been losing some of its previous strength in the last months. Mauritius reported an increase of % till September. Seychelles on the other hand had difficulty to enter in the stiff price competition going on in the sector and faced a drop of 8% in 3. Series (1) International Tourism Receipts International Tourism Expenditure US$ Local currencies (%) US$ Local currencies (%) /1 3* on previous year /1 3* on previous year (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. (million) YTD () Q1 Q Q3 Q Oct. Nov. Dec. Africa 11,78 6,98 Kenya $ Mauritius Morocco, South Africa sa, , Tanzania $ Tunisia 1, Middle East 1,963 18,36 Egypt $ 3, , Jordan Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Data as collected by WTO January ) (1) All percentages are derived from not seasonally adjusted series in local currencies, unless otherwise indicated: $: US$; :euro; sa: seasonally adjusted series. () Year to date. World Tourism Organization (WTO) 1

11 Air Transport According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) the total number of passengers carried last year held steady at 1.6 billion. However, due to a higher proportion of trips to nearer destinations, total traffic in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) was down by 1% overall and 3% for international flights. The SARS outbreak gave rise to a situation that especially affected airlines based in Asia and the Pacific, the same ones that had led the industry in air traffic growth in previous years. In May, international passenger traffic plummeted to almost half the figure posted in the same month in. The situation improved gradually and by the end of 3 international traffic was down by around 1% and total traffic by 6%. It was also a weak year for airlines operating in the North American market, which experienced lower traffic than in. A noticeable improvement is expected in. Middle Eastern airlines enjoyed significant increases, while airlines in Europe, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean had to settle for modest growth relative to. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) considered that in 3 the combination of the war in Iraq, uncertainty with regard to security, and SARS had an unprecedented effect on air transport. The decline in traffic during the first months of the year was not offset by the increases during the latter part of the year. IATA estimates international passenger traffic in 3 to be 3 to % lower than in. According to IATA, however, the recovery strategies adopted, the sector s resilience to the crisis, and the desire to adapt to the new situation are the key elements for the recovery of air transport. For, passenger traffic is forecast to grow by between 7 and 8%. % change International traffic of IATA reporting carriers by region of airline registration. Jan.-Nov Overall North America Source: compiled by WTO from IATA % change over same month previous year South America Europe Africa Middle East Asia and Pacific Air traffic on international routes by month (RPKs) Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) Association of European Airlines (AEA) Air Transport Association of America (ATA) Source: compiled by WTO from ATA, AEA and AAPA World Tourism Organization (WTO) 11

12 North America Although ATA member airlines had net gains in monthly traffic from September onward, they ended 3 with total traffic down 1%. Domestic traffic increased by.7%, while international traffic fell by.%. These results were heavily influenced by drops of nearly 11% in traffic to destinations in Asia and the Pacific, and of 6.% on Atlantic routes. Nevertheless, these Atlantic routes enjoyed growth of around % in November and December. Traffic to Latin American countries showed the opposite trend, improving on its positive numbers in with growth of.% in 3. Europe The figures available up to the month of November show passenger traffic up by 1%. This should be considered in light of the fact that passenger traffic fell by.6% in. During the first eleven months of the year, intra-european traffic, which represents a quarter of total traffic and which grew by 1.%, was the component with the greatest impact on the final results. Long-haul traffic increased by almost 1% from, with Atlantic routes growing by around %. Traffic to destinations in Southern Africa was up by more than 3% compared to the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, traffic to the Far East did not reach the levels of the previous year, and was down almost 8% from the corresponding figure from. Passenger volume on domestic flights improved by more than the overall average, with an increase of 1.% in the months for which figures are available. Once more, it should be pointed out that European transport figures seem to be showing a return to normality after many months of heavy preference for land transport. Many countries are reporting a balance shift in this direction. Also notable are the gains in passenger traffic being enjoyed by low-cost airlines, whose traffic is not taken into account in the figures published by the AEA. Asia and the Pacific Monthly passenger traffic on member airlines of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines showed successively smaller year-on-year declines until September 3. Since then, there has been a slight upward trend in traffic thanks particularly to the recovery of interregional traffic, especially to European and Preliminary Air Transport Statistics, Revenue Passenger-Kms * 3* Monthly data */1 (%) (billion) (%) YTD¹ Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. International Air Transport Association (IATA), Monthly International Statistics (MIS) Scheduled international traffic of IATA reporting carriers by region of airline registration Overall 1,7 ² North America Mexico, Caribbean, Central A South America Europe Africa (incl. Egypt) Middle East (incl. Israel, Iran) Asia and Pacific Air Transport Association of America (ATA) Scheduled Passenger Traffic Statistics ATA U.S. Member Airlines Scheduled mainline service Domestic (incl. USA-Canada) International Atlantic Latin Pacific Association of European Airlines (AEA) Passenger Traffic of AEA Member Airlines Total scheduled Domestic Total International Geographical Europe North Africa Middle East Total long-haul among which: North Atlantic Mid Atlantic South Atlantic Far East/Australasia Sub Saharan Africa Other.3 Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) Consolidated Passenger Traffic International operations Intra-Asia Pacific Trans-Pacific.3 Asia-USA Asia-Europe Source: compiled by WTO from IATA, ATA, AEA and AAPA ¹ Year to date. ² All IATA carriers World Tourism Organization (WTO) 1

13 North American destinations. Intra-regional traffic is still down. The January-November figure is still 11% down on the previous year s results for the same period. % change over same month previous year ATA: Air traffic on selected routes by month (RPKs) Domestic Latin Atlantic Pacific Source: compiled by WTO from ATA % change over same month previous year AEA: Air traffic on selected routes by month (RPKs) Domestic Geographical Europe North Atlantic Far East/Australasia The data presented here refer to scheduled international passenger traffic of reporting carriers of IATA broken down by region of airline registration, as well as to traffic of the member airlines of the three major regional airline associations broken down by routes operated. It should be taken into account that this data reflects the vast majority but not all air traffic, as the carriers included are mostly full-service airlines. Unfortunately, comprehensive data on the evolution of traffic operated by charter and low-cost airlines is still hard to find. Airline data is in particular a good indicator for the short-term evolution of interregional traffic. For intra-regional traffic, however, air transport is in competition with alternative modes of transport (in particular over land, but also over water), and might be subject to shifts between means of transport (depending on relative price, perception of safety, etc.). Furthermore, traffic is not expressed here in passengers carried, but instead measured in terms of revenue passengerkilometres (RPK, one RPK is one paying passenger transported over one kilometre). This implies that each long-haul passenger contributes more to total traffic measured in RPK than each short-haul passenger. Source: compiled by WTO from AEA World Tourism Organization (WTO) 13

14 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Tourism experts look back on tough 3, but expect better Evaluation of the year The over 18 specialists consulted worldwide in the framework of the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts confirm a clear positive prospects for international tourism in. On a five-point scale ranging from [1] much worse to [] much better, the panel attributes an average score of., corresponding to better, to expected performance in as compared to 3. This result is a marked improvement on the evaluation the panel presents regarding 3. However, with an average score of 3., just between equal and better, the year 3 as a whole is still evaluated to have presented a modest improvement compared to. average 3 1 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Evaluation 3 Prospects Total Public Private By region, scores deviate only slightly from the overall average of.. Expectations are particularly high in the Americas (.) and in Asia and the Pacific (.1) as well as among the experts from global organisations and companies (.1), while experts from Europe (3.9), Africa (3.8) and the Middle East (3.7) are comparatively somewhat less optimistic. Furthermore, there is only a slight difference between representatives from the public sector (.1) and from the private sector (3.9). With regard to the evaluation of actual performance in 3, only the subgroup of the global operators appraises 3 less than, assigning a score between equal and worse (.7). It is interesting to note that this subgroup is by contrast among the most optimistic in their expectations for (.1). Experts from Asia and the Pacific are surprisingly still quite positive about 3 with an evaluation of 3.3, while Europe (3.) also just marks below the overall average of 3.. Highest marks are found among experts from the Americas and from the Middle East (both 3.7), followed by Africa (3.). Again the public sector representatives (3.) are slightly more positive than the private sector ones (3.). Evaluation of the four months period As in previous editions in a short questionnaire by , a sample of selected tourism experts from public institutions and businesses all around the world were asked to evaluate the performance of the past four months, the period September to December 3, and to assess the prospects for the coming four months, January to April. Furthermore for the first issue of the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts was also asked to evaluate the performance of world tourism in the year 3 as well as to give its prospects for. average 3 1 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Europe Evaluation 3 Prospects Asia and the Pacific. More than 18 experts from over 9 countries and territories responded to the questionnaire and evaluated past performance and future prospects on a five-point scale ranging from [1] much worse to [] much better. An average can be computed over the replies given, where a score above three indicates an improvement compared to the reference period and a score below three a deterioration. The panel as a whole evaluates the performance of the past four months September to December with an average of 3., a slight increase compared to the 3. of the previous four month period of May to August. The highest evaluation was found for Americas (3.9), while the lowest were found for Europe and the subgroup of global experts with a score of 3.1 both. All subgroups evaluated the period September to December with higher scores than the period May to August, except for the experts from Europe and the Middle East that both evaluated the last four months slightly lower than the four preceding ones. Asia Americas Africa Middle East Global operators World Tourism Organization (WTO) 1

15 and the Pacific was the region with the biggest increase in evaluation, from.9 to 3.6. (See corresponding graph on page 19.) Comparing the actual evaluation of world tourism performance for the period September December 3 (3.), with the expectations expressed four months ago for this same period (3.6), only a slight difference is observed. In fact, over time, prospective estimations done by the experts consulted have been roughly confirmed in their following retrospective evaluations. For the forthcoming four month period January-April, the panel as a whole reaches an average of 3.7, so the Barometer is still rising. The subgroup of global operating companies and organisations is comparatively the least optimistic (3.), while expectations are highest among the experts from Asia and the Pacific (.1) and the Americas (3.9). average 3 Much better Better Equal Worse Much worse average 3 1 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Jan.-April 3 May-Aug. 3 Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Sept.-Dec. 3.3 Evaluation Prospects Jan.-April The WTO Panel of Tourism Experts is based on the results of an survey conducted by the WTO Secretariat among selected representatives from public and private sector organisations and companies. The survey is repeated every four months in order to keep track of the performance and prospects in the tourism sector. For this edition responses have been received from experts based in Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Bermuda, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte d'ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Dubai, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hawaii (USA), Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Macao (China), Maldives, Marshall Island, Mexico, Monaco, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niue, Norway, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Reunion, Saba, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan (pr. of China), Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States, and Uruguay. The results broken down by region, in particular the results for Africa and the Middle East, should be taken with some caution as only a relatively small number of responses are included. For future editions of the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts it is the aim of the WTO Secretariat to extend and improve the sample, in particular with experts from Africa, the Middle East or Asia and the Pacific, from organisations and companies working globally or from countries still missing in the list above. Experts that are interested in participating in the Panel are kindly invited to send an to <barom@world-tourism.org>. 1 Jan.-April '3 actual May-Aug. '3 prospects May-Aug. '3 actual Sept.-Dec. '3 prospects Sept.-Dec. '3 actual Jan.-April ' prospects Total Public Private World Tourism Organization (WTO) 1

16 Comments by the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts In the responses received for WTO Panel of Experts a lot of valuable comments have been included concerning the determinants of the evolution of tourism in the period under review. According to the members of the Panel once war in Iraq and SARS had been overcome, the feeble state of the economy continued still to be the major obstacle to a faster recovery in world tourism. Decrease of outbound tourism from some important generating markets persists, while overall conditions and pressure from consumers for best deals have accentuated competition between destinations and between companies. More and more destinations have turned to the development of alternative products and markets, as well as to the implementation of events, to stimulate and meet the changing demand. Besides the usual comments on the factors determining tourism evolution in the past and coming periods of months, this issue s questionnaire also included the assessment of tourism experts on the main determinants of tourism performance during 3 as well as their views on. The war in Iraq, SARS, the sluggish economic situation in some major generating markets and the USD/euro exchange rate are unanimously quoted as world tourism determinants during 3. Many consider that the initial negative expectations about the war in Iraq were not fully confirmed and that world tourism recovery would have been faster was it not for SARS appearing as a disruptive factor with an impact that went beyond the directly involved countries. As for the terrorist attacks during the year they were hardly mentioned by WTO Experts meaning that their disturbing effects in tourism are becoming less relevant. The year 3 also brought the confirmation of previously identified trends such as the reinforcement of demand in the domestic and nearby markets, late booking and do-it-yourself holidays. A number of experts stressed the increased competition among destinations and among companies, in the majority of the cases with a strong price component. Diversification and innovation in the areas of product development and marketing became essential to all actors in the industry. Performance was naturally not homogeneous in terms of regions or segments, though the majority of experts coincide in the fact that there was a comprehensive yield decline. While major effects were felt in airlines and higher level accommodation due to the decrease in long-haul traffic, budget accommodation and low cost airlines seem to have done better sustained by domestic and intraregional demand. The cruise segment also posted positive results. According to the Cruise Line International Association (CLIA) the number of cruise passengers increased by 1% in the first nine months of 3 and by 9% in the last quarter of the year. Forecasts are that the industry will possibly reach its initial prevision of 9.6 million passengers worldwide in 3. For prospects are generally optimistic based essentially on the positive signs of recovery from the economies of the US, Japan and Western Europe, and on the moderation of world geopolitical conflicts. The year is also deemed to be influenced by some fear of a resurgence of SARS, though in this case, most experts consider that the countries involved will be ready to react rapid and effectively. Economic concerns dominate by far most the expectations for and prospects rise of a pent-up demand as consumers confidence returns. Business traffic is expected to finally start recovering with the envisaged improvement of the economic situation. According to a forecast by Meeting Professionals International (MPI) an average 3.3% growth in spending is anticipated by meeting planners for against the 1.1% decline of 3. Niche markets and fully independent travellers (FIT) are expected to continue doing better than mass market as low cost airlines and internet increasingly provide more flexibility. In the airline sector, a slow recovery is also expected though many refer the possible negative impact of the debate on security measures in airplanes and of tighter border control procedures in some important destinations. Most experts share the opinion that the world tourism industry has in fact changed in the last years and that the future will be made of continuous adaptation. In this new framework uncertainty has become part of the return to normality and competition has increased significantly. Companies will continue to struggle for profitability as cost structures continue to change and consumers become more and more demanding in terms of products and price. World Tourism Organization (WTO) 16

17 Prospects by region By regions the following trends have been assessed as most significant among the more than 18 members of the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Europe By the end of the year the effects of the war in Iraq and of SARS were considered to be more or less absorbed and though with the disadvantage of a stronger currency, European destinations expect to see in some rebound in long-haul traffic, in particular from the US as signs of positive economic performance become more accurate. Italy and Spain already reported to have observed a gradual return of North-American visitors over the last months of 3. Long-haul traffic is also expected to reassume from Asia in the view of a better economic performance in Japan and once postponed traffic due to SARS catches up. China is regarded as a high potential market for and beyond as an increasing number of European destinations have obtained the ADS (Approved Destination Status) and the economy of the country is growing steadily. In Europe main expectation is put on the economic recovery of Germany and France. However, a strong euro is likely to continue stimulating traffic from eurozone countries to the United Kingdom and from the United Kingdom and eurozone source markets like Germany and the Netherlands to destinations outside the eurozone such as Croatia, Turkey, Tunisia or Morocco. is set to be a particularly important year for Europe in many areas. Main sporting events will take place such as the Olympic Games in Greece and the European Football Championship in Portugal. In both cases, these events are expected to benefit not only the welcoming countries but also their neighbouring destinations. Other important events can also stimulate traffic in particular, intraregionally, such as the Forum in Barcelona. Special positive prospects are also expressed for the new EU member countries which will profit in terms of image from a bigger international exposure and in terms of immediate flows from improved access border facilities from actual EU member states source markets. On the other hand it is possible that such destinations may face some slow reorientation in their source markets from East to West as EU border procedures will become more complex for their previously traditional generating markets such as Ukraine or the Russian Federation. In the mid-term tourism in the new EU members will also benefit from EU investments in terms of infrastructures, in particular in the area of access. Asia and the Pacific Prospects for Asia and the Pacific are generally positive. Though there are mentions to some fear of SARS resurgence, most experts do not consider it a threat, and when doing so the majority believes that such situation will be rapidly controlled and will in no case have the impact it had in 3. The fact that the growing economic cycle in most countries in the region was not interrupted by SARS and the rising signs of gradual economic recovery in Japan are also regarded as positive factors to stimulate tourism in the region. The Chinese outbound market is likely to reassume it s excellent performance as the country s economy continues to grow rapidly and further development of the legal framework for outbound tourism is expected. The recent introduction of individual travel permits from China to Hong Kong (China) and Macao (China) in July 3 has already boosted travel from Mainland China to these regions. Many destinations in the region, as well as outside, are confident that travel from China will increase as a consequence of easier outbound procedures, of the growing numbers of countries with ADS agreements (by November 3, 8 countries had already been approved as ADS by China) and of the increased numbers of international tourism companies operating in the country. Inbound tourism to China is expected to regain momentum as recovery was already present in the last months of 3 and travel from countries in the region is expected to reassume once the impact of SARS has disappeared. The fast development on new low-cost carriers in the region, and namely in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, is also envisaged as a factor of further tourism development in the region, contributing in particular to increase regional traffic and increase price competitiveness, which had already been exacerbated by SARS. South East Asia is likely to be positively influenced by economical and political stability in India. In Oceania, Australia and New Zealand expect to catch some pent-up demand from the Asian source markets benefiting from intraregional traffic development due also to the emergence of several new low cost carriers in both countries. On the other hand, long-haul from the US is not expected to grow significantly induced by a weak USD against a strong AUD. Americas The outlook for is dominated by prospects of the long awaited economic recovery in the US market and by security concerns. Outbound travel from the US is expected to rebound as low inflation will make holidays accessible. Nevertheless a weak dollar could stimulate domestic tourism as well as regional traffic while doubts remain whether long-haul travel to Europe also will bounce back. As for inbound tourism prospects are of a recovery in air-, business- and international travel to the US. Nonetheless the recent border procedures are considered by some experts as a possible factor of decline in travel to the US, which in the case of the neighbouring source markets such as Canada and Mexico could represent an increase of travel to destinations in Central and South America as well as in the Caribbean. World Tourism Organization (WTO) 17

18 Expectations are generally positive in Central and South America as the political and economic stability in Argentina and Brazil and the US economy gains momentum. Price advantage will also probably continue to benefit destinations such as Argentina. The Caribbean destinations, which start their high season in the next months are likely to continue the upward trend of the last months of 3 with an increase in traffic from the north American markets of the US and Canada avoiding an increasingly expensive Europe and some long-haul traffic from Europe stimulated by the weaker USD and by an improvement of the economic conditions in European source markets. Middle East Although with an unstable situation in Iraq and a continuous conflictive relation between Israel and Palestine, expectations for a better political climate in Middle East are expressed by the majority of the WTO tourism experts, ensuring that security will be the main issue for the region. A continued growth in intraregional traffic is believed to occur due to the fast development of regional infrastructure in terms of accommodation, entertainment and access, together with the envisaged difficulties in travelling to the Americas for political reasons and to Europe in view of the strong euro. The development of low cost carriers in the region will create the grounds for a new class of travellers and contribute to accelerate regional tourism, in particular in the already significant VFR ( visiting friends and relatives ) segment. Africa In the positive trends is expected to be maintained in all subregions. African destinations might lose some of their relative advantage as perceived safe options. This seems already to be visible in the last months results of South Africa. However, it s difficult to assess whether this change of trend is the result of traffic flowing back to other destinations or of the current appreciation of the South African rand. Its expected that holiday destinations in North Africa will continue to benefit from price competitiveness in European source markets when compared to Mediterranean destinations within the eurozone. A positive event in the region will be the African Cup of Nations soccer championship hosted by Tunisia at the end of January beginning of February. average Evaluation by WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Jan.-April '3 actual May-Aug. '3 prospects May-Aug. '3 actual Sept.-Dec. '3 prospects Sept.-Dec. '3 actual Jan.-April ' prospects Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Global operators World Tourism Organization (WTO) 18

19 The Economic Environment Guarded optimism The majority of the opinions expressed over the past weeks agree that will be the year of economic recovery. The short-term outlook for the national economies of many countries are optimistic, notably for the United States and China, thanks to growth in demand and productivity, as well as the reforms introduced in the economies of Germany, France, and Japan. The forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and published in issue /3 of the Barometer also ran in the same direction. The next set of IMF forecasts, due to be released in April, will be included in this year s second issue of the Barometer. Expectations of recovery are based on the fact that economic policy contains more development-oriented vectors than it has for years: the persistence of budget deficits, very low interest rates, and an exchange rate that is highly favourable to the United States and other dollarized countries. Stock markets have recovered strongly, including those in emerging countries. This year will be one of contrast, after a year that was marked by uncertainty, especially geopolitical uncertainty. Since the second half of 3, such a recovery was already in view based on the prevailing relaxed economic policy, the ability to react shown by businesses themselves, and the generalized competitive environment, with some notable exceptions, as manifested by the lack of results at certain international encounters (the World Trade Organisation (WTO/OMC) meeting in Cancun, Mexico, for example). Despite this, there is a clear trend toward the expansion of the international space less protectionism which could grow if economic recovery is realized. China s economy is going through a consolidation process that will galvanize other economies, both within and outside the region. China has become a significant supplier of goods and services to the world, which is stabilizing prices or lowering them in some cases. Europe has experienced some tense moments as it tried to find ways around pacts that blocked the way to the solution of problems affecting specific countries. Europe seems to have joined the recovery process, albeit a bit later than other regions, and thus is also expected to get back on the track of economic development. Certain imbalances remain in the monetary domain, with a euro that is unusually strong against the dollar and other currencies, and with no change in the exchange rates of important Asian currencies such as the Chinese yuan. Although the strong euro makes it possible to purchase goods and services on better terms, some analysts warn that it could also compromise short-term economic growth. Growing trade and budget deficits in some countries should also be noted. In particular, analysts point out that those of the United States, due to their volume, will require a strong influx of financial resources from other countries. It should also be pointed out that there is less optimism regarding job creation, which is still lagging behind economic growth, or regarding the price of oil, which is showing some resistance to falling, in a context of growing consumption (almost 8 million barrels per day in ) and low oil stocks, as reported in the International Energy Agency s forecasts. Oil; Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate US$ per barrel Oil; Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate US$ per barrel Source: International Monetary Fund Source: International Monetary Fund World Tourism Organization (WTO) 19

20 Growth of GDP & International Tourist Arrivals Growth of GDP & International Tourist Arrivals World % change over previous year Europe % change over previous year 8 GDP Tourism 8 GDP Tourism 6 Average Average Source: IMF, World Tourism Organization (WTO) Source: IMF, World Tourism Organization (WTO) Growth of GDP & International Tourist Arrivals Growth of GDP & International Tourist Arrivals Americas % change over previous year Africa % change over previous year Source: IMF, World Tourism Organization (WTO) Source: IMF, World Tourism Organization (WTO) Growth of GDP & International Tourist Arrivals Growth of GDP & International Tourist Arrivals Asia and the Pacific % change over previous year Middle East % change over previous year GDP Tourism Average * * * * * * GDP Tourism Average GDP Tourism Average * * * * GDP Tourism Average * * Source: IMF, World Tourism Organization (WTO) Source: IMF, World Tourism Organization (WTO) World Tourism Organization (WTO)

21 Exchange rates Exchange rate ECU/euro to US dollar Exchange rate euro to US dollar US$ per Ecu/ US$ per Source: De Nederlandse Bank Exchange rates I- II- III- IV- I-3 II-3 III-3 IV-3 I- Source: De Nederlandse Bank Currency units per US dollar Currency units per euro Average year ago year ago S.-D.3 Average year ago year ago S.-D.3 3 Dec.- Sept.-3 Dec.-3 % 3 Dec.- Sept.-3 Dec.-3 % US dollar Canadian dollar Mexican peso Euro Danish krone Swedish krona Pound sterling Norwegian krone Swiss franc Czech koruna Hungarian forint Polish zloty Turkish lira (million) Japanese yen Australian dollar New-Zealand dollar Singapore dollar Hong Kong dollar Korean won South African rand Source: compiled by WTO based on data from De Nederlandse Bank (DNB)/European Central Bank (ECB) World Tourism Organization (WTO) 1

22 The WTO World Tourism Barometer is developed as a service for WTO Members and published three times a year in English, French and Spanish. Member States, Associate Members and Affiliate Members will receive automatically a copy of the Barometer as part of our member services. If you are interested in receiving the WTO World Tourism Barometer and you are not a WTO member, you can subscribe to the next three issues by electronic delivery as PDF for 6 or by electronic delivery and as hard copy for 9. To order your subscription, please consult the Infoshop on the WTO webpage under the link < or contact the WTO publications section. World Tourism Organization (WTO)