04/08/2017. rage against the. machine. Suggy (AKA Chris Sumner), Online Privacy Foundation, DEF CON 25

Transcription

1 4/8/217 rage against the machine Suggy (AKA Chris Sumner), Online Privacy Foundation, DEF CON

2 Agreement with Nothing to Hide Argument 4/8/217 if you ve got nothing to hide, you ve got nothing to fear Female 3. Male Leave Remain Age Group 2

3 4/8/ Predicting Susceptibility to Social Bots on Twitter Chris Sumner & Dr. Randall Wald 3

4 4/8/ Using Attitudes to Online Surveillance to Explore the Efficacy of Psychographic Marketing in Political Campaigns. 4

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6 4/8/217 6

7 4/8/ Why are people so divided? 7

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10 Frequency Frequency 4/8/217 Snowflakes Deplorables Authoritarianism Authoritarianism 1

11 4/8/217 BLACK & WHITE Gr Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Grey Vs BLACK & WHITE Grey Grey Grey 11

12 4/8/217 Vs 12

13 4/8/217 Vs In-Group Out-Group Feldman & Stenner, 1997 Child Rearing Questions obedience self-reliance good manners curiosity respect for elders independence to be well-behaved to be considerate 13

14 4/8/217 Most important for a child to have? self-reliance Vs obedience curiosity Vs good manners independence Vs respect for elders to be considerate Vs to be well-behaved Study Method & Results 14

15 4/8/217 Surveys over time N = 2, A1 998 B1 663 A2 576 B2 February March April May You have nothing to fear, if you have nothing to hide A1 B1 A2 B2 15

16 4/8/217 A1 B1 A2 B2 It is acceptable that immigrants and visitors from potentially dangerous countries should have to reveal their social media account passwords to UK border agents. A1 B1 A2 B2 16

17 4/8/217 The dark net should be shut down A1 B1 A2 B2 Companies should be not be allowed to develop technologies that prevent law enforcement from accessing your online conversations. A1 B1 A2 B2 17

18 4/8/217 Surveys over time N = 2, A1 998 B1 663 A2 576 B2 February March April May Surveys over time N = 2, A1 998 B1 663 A2 576 B2 February March April May 18

19 4/8/217 Survey A1 (pre) v A2 (post) 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Agree with "nothing to hide" Support wiretapping Pre attack * Ban Anti Surveilllance Tech Post attack Shut down dark net Survey B1 (pre) v B2 (post) (B2 conducted 41 days after attack) 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Agree with "nothing to hide" Pre attack Support wiretapping Post attack Support extreme vetting 19

20 Authoritarianism (Mean) 4/8/217 Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear Pre attack (A1) Post attack (A2) Pre attack (B1) Post attack (B2) 2

21 Frequency 4/8/217 Overlapping Distributions Disagree with Nothing to Hide Agree with Nothing to Hide Authoritarianism 2. What Influences Their Views? 21

22 4/8/217 Baseline Support 1% Probability of Support for Surveillance 5% % Authoritarianism threat increases [support] among those HIGHER in authoritarianism 1% Probability of Support for Surveillance 5% Feldman & Stenner 1997, Feldman 23 % Authoritarianism 22

23 4/8/217 threat increases [support] among those LOWER in authoritarianism 1% Perceived Threat Probability of Support for Surveillance 5% Hetherington & Suhay 211 % Authoritarianism what good are high-minded principles if you are dead? Source: Hetherington & Weiler 23

24 4/8/217 Both are partly right Probability of Support for Surveillance 1% 5% Perceived Threat Anger Anxiety Vasilopoulos, Pavlos, Marcus, & Foucault. 211 % Authoritarianism Study Method & Results 24

25 Probability 4/8/217 Study Method & Results How worried are you that you personally might become a victim of a terrorist attack?? Logistic Regression A1 B1 A2 B2 Authoritarianism 25

26 Probability 4/8/217 Hetherington & Suhay((211) Image source: Hetherington, Marc J., and Jonathan D. Weiler. Authoritarianism and polarization in American politics. Cambridge University Press, 29. Nothing to hide, nothing to fear. A1 B1 A2 B2 Authoritarianism 26

27 Probability 4/8/217 Extreme Vetting A1 B1 A2 B2 Authoritarianism 27

28 Probability 4/8/217 Shut Down the Dark Net (Agree / Disagree) A1 B1 A2 B2 Authoritarianism 3. How Effective is Psychographic Targeting? 28

29 4/8/217 Age, Sex, Geography, FB Interests Personality Personality Age, Sex, Geography, FB Interests 29

30 4/8/217 Authoritarian Authoritarian Age / Sex, Geography, FB Interests Age / Sex, Geography, FB Interests Study Method & Results 3

31 Authoritarianism 4/8/217 Age & Sex EU Referendum Vote Female Male To and over Age Group Authoritarian Authoritarian Males of any age Females under 35 Males of any age Females 35 and over 31

32 4/8/217 Geography Geography Rentfrow, Jokela, Lamb 215 O C E A N Rentfrow PJ, Jokela M, Lamb ME (215) Regional Personality Differences in Great Britain. PLOS ONE 1(3): e

33 Big 5 Trait Scores Openness (R) 4/8/217 Big 5 & Authoritarianism C E A N O Sibley, C. G., & Duckitt, J. (28). Personality and prejudice: A meta-analysis and theoretical review. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 12(3), Auth Auth Conscientiousness 33

34 Openness (R) Openness (R) 4/8/217 Auth Auth Conscientiousness Auth Auth Conscientiousness 34

35 4/8/217 Authoritarian Cambridge, Liverpool, Manchester, Edinburgh, Hackney Authoritarian Basildon, Chelmsford Dudley Thurrock, Mansfield, Market Weighton, Rotherham, Swindon Predicted Vote Actual Vote Correctly classified 78.16% 35

36 4/8/217 Facebook Interests Note: We did not use the PreferenceTool.com. See slide notes for further information PreferenceTool.com Authoritarian Authoritarian Liberalism, The Guardian Conservatism, Mail Online 36

37 Level of Agreement Level of Agreement 4/8/217 % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear 61% 38% 32% 26% 46% All % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear 61% 38% 32% 26% 46% A,S,G = Age, Sex & Geography All auth (A,S,G) 37

38 Level of Agreement Level of Agreement 4/8/217 % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear 61% 38% 32% 26% 46% All auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G) % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear 61% * 38% 32% 25% 46% A,S,G = Age, Sex, Geography & Personality All auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G,P) auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G,P) 38

39 Level of Agreement Level of Agreement 4/8/217 % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear * *** 38% 32% 25% 46% 61% All auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G,P) auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G,P) % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear % people who agree with Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear *** 61% 36% 32% 25% 46% All auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G,P) auth (A,S,G) auth (A,S,G,P) 39

40 4/8/ How Persuasive Are Targeted Ads? Image with permission from : Oscar Bolton Green If you know the personality of the people you re targeting, you can nuance your messaging to resonate more effectively with those key audience groups Alexander Nix, Cambridge Analytica 4

41 4/8/217 Hirsh, Kang & Bodenhausen Phone study (212) Hirsh, Kang & Bodenhausen Phone study (212) With XPhone, you ll always be where the excitement is 41

42 4/8/217 Hirsh, Kang & Bodenhausen Phone study (212) Stay safe and secure with the Xphone Matz, Popov, Kosinski, Stillwell Aimed at Introverts Aimed at Extraverts Matz, S., Popov, V., Kosinski, M. & Stillwell, D (215). Using The Big Five For Customised Advertising On Facebook. Poster session presented at 16th Annual Meeting of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Long Beach, CA, USA 42

43 4/8/217 Study Method & Results Image with permission from : Oscar Bolton Green 43

44 4/8/217 Ads aimed at Auth Target Audience Auth Pro Anti Auth Target Audience Auth 44

45 4/8/217 Pro Anti Auth Target Audience Auth Pro Anti Auth Target Audience Auth 45

46 4/8/217 Pro Anti Auth Target Audience Auth Pro Anti Auth Target Audience Auth 46

47 4/8/ Pro Self reported levels of authoritarianism Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth Pro How persuasive people thought the ad was Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth 47

48 4/8/ Pro Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth Pro Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth 48

49 4/8/ Pro Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth Pro Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth 49

50 4/8/ Pro Medium Medium Anti Medium Auth Target Audience Medium Auth Pro Facebook Target Audience Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth 5

51 4/8/217 Pro Ratio (%) Likes & Shares by Reach Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth Pro Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth 51

52 4/8/217 Pro Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth Pro Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth 52

53 4/8/217 Pro Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth Pro Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth 53

54 4/8/217 Pro Anti Auth Designed to appeal to Auth But does persuasion work? 54

55 4/8/217 Jungherr, Wuttke, Mader, Schoen Survey Postal Those who have received a postal letter from the interest group which argued for the benefits of TTIP have considerably more favourable(sic) attitudes towards this trade deal. 5. Debunking Propaganda 55

56 4/8/217 A C B D A C B D 56

57 4/8/217 Control Questions A Control Condition #1 Group B Control Condition #2 Rash Got Worse Rash Got Better Rash Got Better Rash Got Worse Patients who did use the new skin cream Patients who did use the new skin cream Patients who did NOT use the new skin cream Patients who did NOT use the new skin cream A People who used the skin cream were more likely to get BETTER than those didn t B People who used the skin cream were more likely to get WORSE than those didn t A People who used the skin cream were more likely to get BETTER than those didn t B People who used the skin cream were more likely to get WORSE than those didn t Control Questions A Control Condition #1 Group B Control Condition #2 Rash Got Worse Rash Got Better Rash Got Better Rash Got Worse Patients who did use the new skin cream Patients who did use the new skin cream Patients who did NOT use the new skin cream Patients who did NOT use the new skin cream A People who used the skin cream were more likely to get BETTER than those didn t B People who used the skin cream were more likely to get WORSE than those didn t A People who used the skin cream were more likely to get BETTER than those didn t B People who used the skin cream were more likely to get WORSE than those didn t 57

58 4/8/217 A C B D A C B D 58

59 4/8/217 EU Referendum Voters Skin Cream 6% 4% 2% % Decreases Increases Rash Referendum Vote Leave Remain EU Referendum Voters Immigration 6% 4% 2% % Decreases Increases Decreases Rash Crime Referendum Vote Leave Remain 59

60 4/8/217 EU Referendum Voters Immigration 6% 4% 2% % Decreases Increases Decreases Increases Rash Crime Referendum Vote Leave Remain 6

61 4/8/217 Study Method & Results Skin Cream N = 1,574 6% 4% 2% % Decrease Increase Rash Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear Agree Disagree 61

62 4/8/217 Indicate whether the research shows that online surveillance is likely to increase the terrorist threat or decrease it. C Threat Condition #1 Group D Threat Condition #2 Increase in Threat Decrease in Threat Decrease in Threat Increase in Threat Countries with LEAST pervasive online surveillance Countries with LEAST pervasive online surveillance Countries with MOST pervasive online surveillance Countries with MOST pervasive online surveillance A Countries with the LEAST pervasive online surveillance were more likely to see a DECREASE in the terrorist threat B Countries with the LEAST pervasive online surveillance were more likely to see a INCREASE in the terrorist threat A Countries with the LEAST pervasive online surveillance were more likely to see a DECREASE in the terrorist threat B Countries with the LEAST pervasive online surveillance were more likely to see an INCREASE in the terrorist threat Surveillance increases the threat N = 1,574 6% 4% 2% % Decreases Increases Increases Increase Rash Threat Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear Agree Disagree 62

63 4/8/217 Surveillance decreases the threat N = 1,574 6% 4% 2% % Decreases Increases Increases Decreases Rash Threat Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear Agree Disagree 44 & over N = 1,574 6% 4% 2% % Decreases Increases Increases Decreases Rash Threat Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear Agree Disagree 63

64 4/8/217 Conclusions & Discussion 64

65 4/8/217 If both sides use this, do the effects equal out? If both sides use this, do the effects equal out? 65

66 Probability 4/8/217 Momentum / Public Mood Shut Down The Dark Net Authoritarianism Fear 66

67 4/8/217 How political ads motivate and persuade voters by appealing to emotions Brader (25) er Attention er Towards tackling the problem 67

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69 4/8/217 The End 69