Modeling International Migrant Flows: Theory, Evidence and Forecasts

Transcription

1 Modeling International Migrant Flows: Theory, Evidence and Forecasts David Leblang, University of Virginia December 4,

2 Project Team Profile PI: David Leblang, University of Virginia Project Start Date: July 2017 Anticipated End Date: July 2019 Project personnel: Melissa Henriksen, Project Manager Kirsten Gelsdorf, Subject Matter Expert Benjamin Helms, Graduate Research Assistant/Project Administrator Rebecca Brough, Alexa Iadarola, Alicia Smith, Eric Xu, Research Assistants Abhiraj Deshpande, Software Developer 2

3 Problem Statement What are the factors driving migration to the United States? Do they vary over time/region of origin? Do they vary by type of migrant (legal, illegal, UAM)? What policy levers can help decrease the demand for immigration into the United States? Which are most cost-effective? 3

4 Beneficiary / End User Profile: Jobs Analysts at CBP s OIT and USBP Analysis Division Analysts at DHS s OIS Legislative staff drafting policy USAID examining effectiveness of development assistance 4

5 Beneficiary / End User Profile: Desired Gains Better understanding of factors pushing flows of legal, illegal and unaccompanied minors to the US. Development of a forecasting tool to assess the effect of: Environmental, economic, and political shocks in driving migration Policies designed to mitigate these shocks 5

6 Beneficiary / End User Profile: Pain Points Current lack of knowledge with regard to: Extant data availability (confirmed via OIS meeting) Lack of data means no comprehensive understanding of push factors Which, in turn, means no way to evaluate policy alternatives And no way to predict migrant inflows. 6

7 Products & Services Delivery to end user of: Comprehensive and readily expandable database of migrant inflows and correlates from Development of underlying model of push factors. Generation of forecasting tool All in an easily accessible GUI 7

8 Products & Services DATA MODEL USEFUL RESULTS Earthquakes 8

9 Products & Services 9

10 Gains Created What are the gains achieved and how are they measured? Simple, intuitive tool to forecast migration into the US given shocks Statistical model to assess effectiveness of policy interventions Rigorous statistical technique to estimate unauthorized migration 10

11 Pains Alleviated What are the pains alleviated and how are they measured? Greater predictive capacity effective government response Informed policy response to potential and actual migration push factors 11

12 Key accomplishments Initial database construction from publicly available data sources Model-building, focused initially on Western Hemisphere migration. Some important determinants: Natural disasters Conflict and civil war Poverty & education 12

13 Transition Pathways Deliverable is GUI and forecasting tool Will work with end-user on initial development of GUI Solicit input from end-users regarding face validity of underlying forecasting model Initial model and tool test-driven at end of year 1. 13

14 Transition Engagement More knowledge of transition engagement and challenges after quarterly meeting next week. 14

15 Conclusions Identification of the timing of migration relative to the onset of a particular type of underlying cause will allow forecasting of future migrant flows in response to changes that occur in potential sending countries. The security of the United States (and allies) can be enhanced by a better understanding of the causes of emigration. This is the intended outcome of the project 15

16 Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2015-ST-061-BSH001. This grant is awarded to the Borders, Trade, and Immigration (BTI) Institute: A DHS Center of Excellence led by the University of Houston, and includes support for the project Modeling International Migrant Flows awarded to the University of Virginia. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 16