Geopolitical Uncertainties from a (re)insurance perspective. Jan Willing Sydney, 5 April 2017

Transcription

1 Geopolitical Uncertainties from a (re)insurance perspective Jan Willing Sydney, 5 April 2017

2 Geopolitical Environment

3 Source: The Economist, Nov 19 th

4 The ascent of populism Source: Bridgewater Associates (2017) 4

5 Vox populi Characteristics of populism *) Anti-establishment Authoritarianism Nativism Cynicism and resentment of authorities and institutions Brussels, Washington..this so called Judge.. Crooked Hillary *) Cas Mudde (2007) Charismatic leadership reflecting the will of the people Erdogan, Putin, Trump, Le Pen, Wilders Suppressing critical media Fake News National self-interest over international cooperation take our country back wall to Mexico If you re a citizen of the world, you re a citizen of nowhere. 5

6 Populism grows from insecurity *) Physical Terrorism, Violence Cultural/social Migration, Refugees Low education Economic Recession Globalisation, Automation *) subjective or real 6

7 Deaths from terrorism in OECD countries The number of deaths through terror attacks has increased dramatically since In Turkey alone 337 people were killed, in France 156. Source: IEP (2016) Global Terrorism Index 7

8 Number of deaths and attacks by region The number deaths in MENA alone is more than 20 times higher than in OECD countries. Source: IEP (2016) Global Terrorism Index 8

9 Terrorism risk in the US: More felt than real? Source: Huffington Post 9

10 Number of asylum seekers has increased, particularly in Germany Source: UNHCR

11 countries close to crisis regions host many more refugees Source: UNHCR

12 The US lost nearly 1/3 of the manufacturing jobs since 1990

13 The very poor and DM middle classes lost out on globalisation Source: The American Prospect, using data provided by Branko Milanovic 13

14 Belief in the benefits of trade is much lower in the US than in China Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in your country? (Yes No N/A) Yes No US 20% 50% China 67% 11% Source: Pew Global,

15 Populist economics Our experience of populism is mainly related to the past or to EM countries (e.g. Chavez, Duterte). Populism in DM countries (in particular US) is new to us. Populist economics are not yet well understood but could include the following factors: Deficit spending, lower taxes, (temporary) higher growth, higher inflation Protectionism hampering global trade and supply chains Increased disregard to rule of law Banks and investors are revisiting their frameworks for political risks Globalisation might be slowed down or even reversed through populist policies, but not the trend to more automation and digitalization. 15

16 Geopolitical and other risks will add to political instability 16

17 Polical uncertainty and its impact on insurance

18 The impact of political instability on economy Economic Impact Policy uncertainty Fiscal Budget Labour market (Environment, Climate) Hit to business and household confidence Increased precautionary saving/subdued investment Political instability Market volatility Currencies Interest rates Equities Reduced market liquidity Increased cost/reduced availablility of credit Higher costs of capital Suboptimal policies Regulations Laws Administrative decisions Trade restrictions, punitive tariffs Ineffective/fragmented regulation Mis-directd public spending Source: based on information of Swiss Re 18

19 and insurance Insurance Impact Affected Lines of business Policy uncertainty Reduction in GWP Higher claims costs Asset losses Property & casualty (e.g. through aging infrastructure) Life (e.g. through higher unemployment) Market volatility Asset losses Losses in credit and surety lines Higher cost of capital Higher funding costs Credit and surety Variable annuities Suboptimal policies Legal risks, contract uncertainty Higher cost of capital Reduced capital fungibility Marine, transport, travel Contingent BI 19

20 Political Risk Accumulation Identification Process at Munich Re Exploring complex accumulations Improving subjective risk estimates Using expert systems to collect and analyse causal networks in a systematic and reusable manner Improving understanding of dependencies and event trees in the global risk landscape Identifying and analysing new accumulation risks Rapid and comprehensive estimate of topical events regarding their relevance and consequences for the organization CARE ( Complex Accumulation Risk Explorer ) contains currently ~350 events and 1200 relations 20

21 Development of methods and worst-case scenarios together with Centre for Risk Studies (U Cambridge) Source: 21