East Africa Briefing. May 2015

Transcription

1 East Africa Briefing

2 April at a Glance Djibouti, April 19: Djibouti announces that it has opened up its airspace and territorial waters to the Saudi-led coalition against Yemen s Houthi rebel group. Hundreds of refugees fleeing the conflict have already arrived in Djibouti. Sudan, April 27: Incumbent President Omar al-bashir is re-elected with 94 percent of the vote, in an election boycotted by the country s main opposition parties. Bashir, who has been in power since 1989, has been criticized by a number of international bodies for not carrying out a free and fair vote. Somalia, April 20: At least seven people were killed in Garowe, the main city in Somalia s Puntland region, when a suicide bomber attacked a United Nations vehicle. The UN children s fund, UNICEF, said four of its staff are among the dead. Al Shabaab are believed to be responsible for the incident. Ethiopia, April 22: Thousands of people took to the streets of Addis Ababa to protest against the killing of 28 Ethiopian Christians in Libya by the Islamic State terror group. South Sudan, April 15: Heavy fighting between the two rival armies reaches Bentiu Town, the capital of the oil rich Unity State. The violence is the latest round in South Sudan s civil war, which erupted in December Aid workers based in Bentiu have reportedly been prevented from leaving their headquarters in the town by government officials. Kenya, April 8: Kenyan authorities freeze the accounts of two Islamic organizations, Muslims for Human Rights and Haki Africa, on suspicion of funding terror-related activities. 11 other financial institutions and remittance companies were closed over the course of April as part of further efforts to curb the alleged funding of terrorism. Kenya, April 30: Kenyan journalist John Kituyi is killed while walking home from work in the western Kenyan town of Eldoret, in an attack that is believed to have been connected to Kituyi s publishing of a story describing the International Criminal Court (ICC) case against Kenyan Deputy President William Ruto and alleged official interference with prosecution witnesses. Since the ICC case began in Kenya a number of witnesses have been killed and journalists have been forced to go into hiding or flee the country. Tanzania, April 13: Tanzanian security forces arrest 10 suspected Al Shabaab members in a raid on a mosque 125 miles east of Dar es Salaam. Tanzania, April 30: Tanzanian authorities detained the leader of the Congo-based Ugandan Islamist rebel group Allied Democratic Forces, Jamil Mukulu, in a move which could provide a major boost for UN-backed operations to pacify the lawless region. Mukulu is accused of leading a spate of brutal attacks against civilians in both Ugandan and DRC since the late 1990 s. Mozambique, April 17: Energy and chemical company Sasol halts a contract project in Mozambique amid rising fears of possible xenophobic attacks, following the spate of violent xenophobic incidents in neighboring South Africa. Mozambique, April 30: Mozambique s National Assembly voted against a bill proposed by the opposition party RENAMO to create autonomous provincial councils in six central and northern provinces.

3 Regional Overview Executive Summary Key Trends Ahead of the upcoming June elections the incumbent President of Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, announces a controversial third term bid, causing deadly protests and an attempted coup. April 2015 was the deadliest month ever for migrants crossing the Mediterranean, at least a quarter of whom are believed to have originated in the Horn of Africa. Pirates on the Tanganyka Lake US Doing Business in Africa Council publishes first recommendations report, with the intention of strengthening commercial engagement between the US and the EAC over the coming years. Mozambique is on course to become the fastest growing market for high net worth individuals in Africa over the next 10 years, projections released this month show. by Christine Vaufrey CC BY 2.0 via Flickr BURUNDI 14 KENYA 1 MOZAMBIQUE SOMALIA SOUTH SUDAN SUDAN 2 TANZANIA 5 UGANDA Reported Violent Incidents Source: EI, ACLED data

4 Politics and Security Burundi Violence Grips Burundi as Nkurunziza Announces Controversial Third Term Bid More than 50,000 civilians have been forced to flee Burundi as waves of pre-election violence hit the country following incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza s announcement that he will seek a third term in office in the upcoming June elections. So far, at least 19 people have died and hundreds more have been reported injured in the most serious unrest seen in Burundi since the end of the devastating 13 year civil war in Since the April 25 statement by the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) Party, confirming Nkurunziza s candidacy, opposition activists have clashed with police almost daily in the capital Bujumbura. The government has characterized the protesters as terrorists leading an insurrectional movement and has deployed the army to provide additional security. Police forces have also been using bullets, tear gas and water cannons against protesters Pierre Nkurunziza attempting to reach the center of the capital, as well as arresting a number of high-profile human rights activists and government critics and blocking social media access across the country. Private radio stations have been shut down and the feared Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the CNDD-FDD, are also marking the homes of those opposed to the president. In dramatic developments last week, military leaders organized a failed coup in an attempt to oust Nkurunziza from power. Nkurunziza is now understood to be moving quickly to reassert his authority, increasing crackdowns on the opposition and ordering retaliatory attacks. At least eighteen people have already appeared in court accused of involvement in the coup, all of whom are reported to have been violently beaten following their arrests. Opposition parties and civil society groups say Nkurunziza s third term bid violates both the constitution, which limits a president to two terms in office, and clauses in the Arusha Accords, signed in 2000 as part of efforts to end the civil war. However, on May 5, Burundi s Constitutional Court ruled that Nkurunziza could lawfully stand for the presidency, despite claims that judges had been subjected to death threats if they did not agree to the ruling. For Burundi, a peaceful and democratic resolution still seems some way off and opposition leaders have vowed to continue protests until Nkurunziza respects the constitution. However, the violence is also raising questions about the stability of the fragile Great Lakes region. In an area of the continent with a long history of ethnic conflict and the ongoing presence of rebel militias, particularly in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), there are concerns that violence in Burundi may spark wider unrest. Additionally, the tenure of the often criticized presidents of both the DRC and Rwanda are due to come to an end in 2016 and 2017 respectively, and there is already speculation that both, like Nkurunziza, will seek to amend their national constitutions to run for third terms in office. by DOC; CC BY-ND 2.0 via Flickr

5 Politics and Security Eritrea Deaths of Horn of Africa Migrants in the Mediterranean Sparks Global Debate and Condemnation April 2015 was the deadliest month in history for migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa to the southern shores of Europe. At least five boats carrying almost two thousand migrants sank in the Mediterranean last month, with a combined death toll estimated at more than 1200 people. Hundreds of East Africans are believed to be among the dead, raising concerns that too little is being done to mitigate the impacts of repressive political regimes in the region. 22 percent of all people entering Italy by boat in 2014 were from Eritrea, a number which has risen threefold since After Syrians, they are the second most common nationality to undertake these journeys. Alongside migrants from Eritrea, the number of Ethiopian, Sudanese and Somali civilians attempting the journey has also increased in recent years. Despite having a population of just six million, Eritreans make up a quarter of all asylum applications in the European Union (EU). Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki, also the union head of state, head of government, commander in chief of the armed forces, parliament speaker and leader of the only authorized party, the PFDJ, has been in power for 22 years. He presides over what has repeatedly been named as one of the most repressive regimes in the world. All forms of civil society are prohibited, arbitrary detention and torture are commonplace and military service is North African immigrants in Sicily mandatory for everyone under the age of 50, with recruits enlisted for an indefinite period. Observers are now calling for the EU to use its political, diplomatic and financial influence to bring about change in Eritrea, arguing that unless the root cause is dealt with, the influx of migrants will continue. So far, the EU has responded by sending development aid to the country, however there is no indication as to how and where this money will be used once in the hands of the Eritrean regime. Regionally, neighboring Sudan and Ethiopia are also coming under strain as thousands of refugees from Eritrea and other areas of Sub-Saharan Africa travel through their borders en route to ports on the Libyan coast. Calls for assistance from the EU and other international decision makers have so far gone unanswered, despite Italian officials claiming they would be committed to military intervention on African soil. In the first quarter of 2014 there were approximately four deaths of Mediterranean migrants per 1000 arrivals; in the first quarter of 2015 there were 47 per 1000 arrivals. The International Organization for Migration fears 30,000 people could drown making the journey this year, at least a quarter of whom will originate in the Horn of Africa according to current estimates. With no indications that the regime of Afewerki, or other authoritarian leaders such as Sudan s Omar al-bashir, will come to an end anytime soon, 2015 looks set to be a devastating year for migrants in the Mediterranean. by Vito Manzari; CC BY 2.0 via Flickr

6 Business and Regulation East African Community US Doing Business in Africa Advisory Council Publishes First Recommendations Report US President Barrack Obama s newly formed Advisory Council on Doing Business in Africa (DBIA) met for the first time in Washington DC on April 8. The meeting, and subsequent release of the council s first Recommendations Report, marks the fulfillment of a key commitment from last year s US-Africa Leaders Summit, where Obama instructed US officials to establish a private sector-led working group with the goal of developing a comprehensive set of recommendations to enhance US-African trade and investment. East Africa in particular is of great importance to the US, especially in the wake of the discovery of oil reserves throughout the region, and the new recommendations have the potential to strengthen commercial engagements between the East African Community (EAC) and US over the coming years, bringing a wide range of benefits and investment to the region. President Obama Delivers Remarks at the US-Africa Leaders Summit The council, as well as containing high-level US officials such as National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzke, is comprised of 15 private sector members who represent some of the largest US companies currently doing business on the continent. Their new report includes several innovative proposals across four key areas, emphasizing the fact that Africa s growth is about much more than just resources, including: investment and access to capital; trade and supply chain development; infrastructure; and marketing and outreach. The report highlights the development of African capital markets as a critical feature of attracting increased investment, recommending that US officials provide technical assistance on market development, surveillance, and enforcement issues in the region. Linked to this, there is also discussion of an Investor Toolkit, whereby US companies will be helped to identify and vet local partners and gain local market intelligence. Further recommendations include the establishment of a US-Africa Infrastructure Center that would ensure early American involvement in target markets, as well as the acknowledgment that US-EAC Commercial Dialogue initiative is the central platform for public-private sector engagement under the Trade Africa initiative. Another critical recommendation is for African governments to bring the World Trade Organization s (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement into force prior to the December 2015 WTO ministerial in Kenya, the first such session to be held in Africa. Although there is still significant work to do to fully realize the potential of a robust US-African commercial relationship, the DBIA report is an important step towards developing links between America and the continent, and there are hopes that the EAC in particular will benefit from the ongoing work of the Council.

7 Business and Regulation Mozambique Mozambique Set to be Fastest Growing African Market for Millionaires Mozambique is on course to become the fastest growing market for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in Africa over the next 10 years, projections released this month show. The number of African HNWIs has increased by 145 percent since 2000, compared to a worldwide growth rate of 73 percent, and numbers are expected to rise by a further 45 percent over the next 10 years, with Mozambique leading the way. A HNWI, a classification used by the financial services industry, is an individual with at least $1 million in liquid financial assets. South Africa is currently home to the most HNWIs in Africa, followed by Egypt and Nigeria, with around 161,000 HNWIs living on the continent at the end of Now, buoyed by a rapidly developing energy sector and other commodity driven industries, the East African nation of Mozambique looks set to rise up the ranks, becoming the African country with the fastest increasing number of HNWIs over the next decade. Mozambique, previously one of the poorest countries in the world, is poised to become the world s biggest coal exporter by 2020 and the discovery of massive offshore gas fields mean the former Portuguese colony has emerged as a new giant in the natural gas business. As a result, global luxury brands, already targeting wealth hotspots such as Nigeria and South Africa, are expected to turn their sights on Mozambique and neighboring Zambia, which is expected to be the second highest growing HNWI market over the same period. As well as an increase in the number of Mozambican HNWIs, a boom in the spending power of the middle classes is also expected, despite the recent fall in oil prices. However, despite this progress, vast swathes of Mozambique still remain severely undeveloped and there is the risk that the increasing numbers of superwealthy individuals will only serve to further highlight the economic disparity between these select HNWIs and the majority of the population. Although the growth of HNWIs will no doubt be a positive development for the Mozambican economy, observers are hopeful that a proportion of this new found wealth will trickle down to the rest of the Mozambican people. Maputo Skyline by Andrew Moir, CC BY 2.0 via Flickr

8 Regional Forecast Upcoming Key Events Ethiopia Campaigning has begun ahead of the May 24 parliamentary elections as some 6,000 candidates fielded by 58 political parties vie for 547 seats in the national assembly. The process is likely to be peaceful, however the Ethiopian Government has faced accusations of political repression in recent years and there is the potential for tensions to rise as the vote draws closer. South Sudan Fighting has intensified in the conflict-ridden country over the last six weeks, particularly in oil-rich regions such as Unity State. Oil fields in the state have been shut down and many international agencies have withdrawn their staff from the area as violence continues. SOUTH SUDAN ETHIOPIA KENYA BURUNDI Burundi Opposition politicians and demonstrations have vowed to continue protesting until Nkurunziza respects the constitution and withdraws his third term bid. Nkurunziza has stated he has no intention of doing this and elections will go ahead in late June as planned. Continuing violence is very likely, particularly in the capital Bujumbura. Kenya Kenyan authorities have vowed to continue their crackdown on Al Shabaab in Kenya and across the border in neighboring Somalia. In response, the Islamists have warned of another attack similar to that carried out in Garissa last month, in which 148 students were killed. Further violence is possible.

9 Editor: Clare Morton triplecanopy.com Sunrise Valley Drive Suite 140 Reston, Virginia USA About Triple Canopy Triple Canopy is a leading provider of mission support, security, training and advisory services to government agencies and multinational corporations across a range of market sectors and geographies. The company excels at delivering complete program management solutions to help clients achieve critical mission objectives in challenging locations worldwide. From logistics and life support to personal protection and training, clients rely on Triple Canopy to mitigate risk and ensure business continuity. Triple Canopy is ISO 9001:2008 certified and a founding signatory of the International Code of Conduct.