Rural Migration Trends and Drivers. Networked Rural Councils Program

Transcription

1 Rural Migration Trends and Drivers Networked Rural Councils Program December

2 This report has been prepared for Rural Councils Victoria to identify rural migration trends and drivers impacting Victoria s rural councils and consult with them on the plans and activities currently being undertaken. This report makes associated draft recommendations about future Rural Councils Victoria programs, following the consultation process with Victoria s 38 rural councils. The 38 rural councils are encountering a range of challenges as a result of small populations and demographic change which impact on their capacity and capability to plan for and adapt to change. Rural Councils Victoria is focussed on supporting growth and delivering economic development initiatives across Victoria. The network is passionate about the liveability and viability of their regional areas, particularly in terms of creating jobs, improving opportunities and accessing critical services including transport and healthcare. The State Government has recognised that the 38 rural councils are often better able to understand and meet challenges by working in collaboration and this proposal underpins a policy of empowering rural councils to plan and adapt to change in a more sustainable way and participate in decision making processes that impact on their region through coordinated, collaborative and networked approaches. The Rural Councils Executive Committee, comprising two representatives a councillor and officer from each of the six Municipal Association of Victoria rural regions meet monthly to provide recommendations about priorities for the program. The Rural Councils Victoria work program ( Networked Rural Councils ) is funded by Regional Development Victoria and managed by Rural Councils Victoria through the Municipal Association of Victoria. The funding commitment is $3.3 million over four years commencing 1 July 2011 through to 30 June This project was prepared alongside Rural Councils Victoria by Mach 2 Consulting. For further information about this report contact: Maxine Morrison Program Adviser Rural Councils Victoria mmorrison@mav.asn.au Copyright Municipal Association of Victoria, December 2012 The Municipal Association of Victoria is the owner of the copyright in this publication. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing from the Municipal Association of Victoria. All requests to reproduce, store or transmit material contained in the publication should be addressed to Maxine Morrison on mmorrison@mav.asn.au.

3 Contents 1. Executive Summary Introduction Background Methodology Definition of Terms Focus on Tree-change Population Projections for Victoria Population Growth in Regional Victoria Projected Age Structure Drivers of Projected Growth and Change Spatial Patterns of Population Change Economic Development and Rural Industries Projected Industry Changes Focus of Economic Development Trends and Drivers The Tree-change Phenomenon Relocated Residents Survey Education Migration Potential Relocators Survey and Interviews Methodology Survey Analysis Population Retention Initiatives Other Survey Comments Follow-up Interviews Consultation Workshop Workshop Aims Workshop Key Themes Insights Issues Opportunities Case Studies Introduction Gannawarra Shire Council: Creative New Industry Development North East Victoria: A Collaborative Approach to Promotion Corangamite Shire Council: Promises Kept Campaign... 33

4 8.5 Experiences from other Councils Southern Grampians Shire Council: Inspired by Locals Moira Shire Council: Moira Jobs Link Yarriambiack Shire Council: Football Migration Trundle: Country Town Rescue Oamaru, New Zealand: Dressing Up Puts Town on the Map Bendigo: Grace Kelly Exhibition Southern NSW: Country Change Campaign Conclusions and Recommendations A Strategic Planning Framework Recommendation The Role of Key Influencers and Events Recommendations Online Information Hub Recommendation Regional Approaches Recommendation Incentive Programs Recommendation Entrepreneur and Local Leader Support Recommendation Bibliography APPENDIX List of Figures Figure 1: Historical and projected population for Victoria, Figure 2: Projected population by age and sex, 2011 and Figure 3: Net migration Melbourne and regional Victoria by age, Figure 4: Projected average annual rate of population growth across Victoria by LGA, Figure 5: Most important industries to rural economies, 2011 and Figure 6: Rural councils economic development areas of focus, 2007 and Figure 7: Net migration between regional Victoria and Melbourne by age, Figure 8: Rural council initiatives for attracting population Figure 9: Specific demographic groups rural councils are focussed on attracting Figure 10: Initiatives being undertaken by rural councils for population retention Figure 11: Specific demographic groups rural councils are targeting for retention... 23

5 1. Executive Summary At the same time as population projections show significant parts of rural Victoria experiencing no or negligible growth over the coming twenty years, there is also projected to be a steady movement of people leaving metropolitan Melbourne for a better lifestyle in regional and rural Victoria. Population growth in regional Victoria is expected to be concentrated in the regional centres, areas in reasonable proximity to Melbourne and areas with significant amenity attractors such as coastal or riverfront locations. According to recent market research, approximately 450,000 people are planning to move to regional Victoria from Melbourne in the next three years. One of the biggest challenges facing rural councils is maintaining current populations and attracting new residents as a way of sustaining their communities. There are some good examples of where regional cooperation towards this goal is already happening, North East Victoria being one. However, this project identified that the majority of rural councils are working on population attraction and retention initiatives on their own and with very few resources. Furthermore, there is little evidence-based strategic planning currently being undertaken in relation to population attraction and retention, nor are resources being expended on evaluating existing programs. Only 75% of rural councils are targeting specific demographic groupings for population attraction while only 50% of rural councils are targeting their retention activities. The inaugural 2012 Regional Victoria Living Expo was considered by 61% of rural councils as their key population attraction activity. While a very recent development, this event is already held in high regard for attracting people already considering relocation to regional Victoria. In the workshop conducted to test the project survey results, a workshop participant likened the current state of play for population attraction and retention to the way tourism was treated 15 years ago: We knew we needed to attract tourists, we just weren t sure which ones. Forward 15 years and our tourism initiatives and campaigns are highly targeted to specific market segments yielding the best returns and growth potential. We currently don t have the information available to us to start thinking and acting more strategically towards what our sustainable population looks like. The key retention activity for rural councils is education and training for young people. The research suggests that young people migrate to the cities as young adults not only for education and employment opportunities but as also a contemporary rites of passage into adulthood. Further investigation into the value of these retention efforts is required and whether or not they would be better deployed encouraging young people back to rural communities when they re ready to start families of their own. There are a number of qualitative research papers describing experiences of those who have or intend to relocate, yet very little quantitative data available. The research has identified a number of key influencers on relocation decision making, with the main influencers being friends, relatives and real estate agents. This information represents a real leverage opportunity for rural councils as these groups are largely uninvolved in attraction and retention initiatives. Another key element in the consideration of a potential tree-change is having had direct experience of an area. While rural councils are very focused on tourism activities to attract new people to their area, the role of festivals, exhibitions and events are in the main not viewed through a population attraction lens. The role these activities potentially play, combined with the key influencers may provide future opportunities for rural councils. Page 1

6 Recommendations arising from this research project are as follows: A strategic planning framework be developed that enables rural communities to identify and plan for population sustainability. Furthermore, a strategic planning framework would also help rural councils to identify their strengths and weaknesses within a broader sub-regional or regional context, target their population attraction and retention initiatives more effectively, and prioritise strategic infrastructure and other investments. This work should include the development of further information, planning tools and engagement resources to support population attraction and retention that is more targeted toward specific demographic groups. The framework would also assist rural councils in evaluating current initiatives against agreed population sustainability objectives. Further investigate the potential role of key influencers like friends, relatives and real estate agents in targeted population attraction initiatives. Rural councils could consider using this information to better target their attraction strategy at the 2013 Regional Victoria Living Expo. Also, investigate the population attraction role of local events in attracting potential new residents. The establishment of an online information hub that contains local employment and other relevant information in one place for people looking to move to regional Victoria. The information hub could have a log in section for economic development officers to share information, ideas and successful case studies. Sub-regional or regional approaches to population sustainability be further investigated as a way of providing coordinated responses to potential new residents in a way that makes the most effective use of limited resources. Further investigate the role business finance and mentoring support schemes could play in attracting business owners and young families to rural communities. This investigation could also extend to new home buyer subsidies and other incentives. Rural councils need to place a far greater focus on supporting existing local leaders and entrepreneurs to build their businesses and industries, especially in relation to the opportunities a highly globalised knowledge economy provide. Page 2

7 2. Introduction 2.1 Background The ongoing viability and sustainability of towns and communities is an issue confronting rural councils. Rural councils are encountering a range of challenges as a result of their population trends, industry adjustment and demographic changes impacting on their capacity and capability to plan for and adapt to change. Along with priorities associated with emergency management, crisis recovery and environmental sustainability, councils are operating in an increasing complex environment. The purpose of this report is to identify the current trends, drivers and challenges for population attraction and retention in Victoria s 38 rural councils. It is also to understand the current activities and initiatives being undertaken, the resources being utilised and any case study examples of initiatives delivering results in this area. This information, coupled with knowledge of current government priorities will be used to inform the direction and development of targeted initiatives as part of RCV s work to support future attraction and retention initiatives. 2.2 Methodology The project has involved the following: Identification of trends and drivers as well as activities related to population attraction and retention. A qualitative survey targeted at economic development officers in the rural councils to audit current plans, activities and perceptions of population attraction and retention. Follow-up stakeholder interviews to further explore key survey findings. Identification and documentation of case study examples of projects delivering positive results or where there are valuable insights to be gained. Presentation of key survey findings to economic development officers through a facilitated workshop to test findings and engage the group in discussions to explore the challenges and opportunities currently faced in relation to population attraction and retention. Development of a report that provides details, analysis and outcomes on the items mentioned above including draft recommendations for the direction and development of targeted initiatives, tools and resources as part of an ongoing program of work by Rural Councils Victoria (RCV) under the Networked Rural Councils program. Page 3

8 2.3 Definition of Terms For the purposes of this report the definition of key terms are as follows. Downshifter International migration Regional city Regional Victoria Rural council Rural migration Sea-changer Tree-changer People selling their homes in the city to buy a cheaper one in a regional area, who then use the difference to improve their lifestyle. People residing in Australia who have moved here from another country. One of the ten cities identified by the State Government; Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Horsham, Latrobe, Mildura, Shepparton, Wangaratta, Warrnambool, Wodonga. Regional Victoria refers to the 48 local government areas not within metropolitan Melbourne. One of the 38 councils in regional Victoria not including the regional cities. People who move from the cities to reside in rural and regional communities. Sea-changers are people who make an urban to coastal migration to achieve a selfidentified better lifestyle. Tree-changers are people who make an urban to rural migration to achieve a selfidentified better lifestyle. 2.4 Focus on Tree-change This project focuses on the tree-change phenomena and the broader sustainability of rural communities that are experiencing a lack of population growth, industry adjustment, climate change adaption and an aging population, rather than on sea change communities. There are a number of rural councils that experience both pockets of growth in their coastal localities and population decline or stagnation in their inland areas. The planning for and adaptation to change in rural councils experiencing sea-change has largely being led by the National Sea Change Taskforce. This organisation was established in 2004 as a national body to represent the interests of coastal councils and communities experiencing the effects of rapid population and tourism growth. The Taskforce now has more than 68 member councils from around Australia. Collectively, these councils represent more than four million residents. The role of the National Sea Change Taskforce is to provide national leadership in addressing the impact of the sea-change phenomenon and to provide support and guidance to coastal councils attempting to manage the impact of rapid growth. There is not an equivalent group representing the interests of non-coastal rural and regional communities currently. However there is growing interest in the sustainability issues impacting rural and regional Australia. For example, the Regional Australia Institute established in February 2012 is Australia s first independent think tank focussed on research into priority policy issues impacting all areas of Australia outside capital cities. Page 4

9 3. Population Projections for Victoria 3.1 Population Growth in Regional Victoria Population projections provided by the Department of Planning and Community Development 1 show that in June 2011, the population of Victoria was 5.6 million. Like Australia generally, Victoria is a highly urbanised state with Melbourne being home to nearly three-quarters of the state s population (4.1 million), while almost 1.5 million people live in regional Victoria. Key Points: Slower than projected population growth for rural Victoria Projected increase in older aged cohort Increase in median age to 41 years Decrease in population aged years in regional Victoria Migration focused into regional areas Regional Victoria is expected to gain residents from Melbourne over the projection period ( ). This migration from Melbourne will be the main contributor to the change in Victoria s regional population. Figure 1 shows the projected population growth for Victoria and Melbourne being higher than the more modest projections for regional Victoria. Figure 1: Historical and projected population for Victoria, (Source: Department of Planning and Community Development Victoria in Future 2012) Over the 40 years to 2051, Victoria s population is projected to increase by 3.2 million to 8.7 million. Over the same period, Melbourne s population is expected to grow to 6.5 million, while regional Victoria is projected to grow to 2.3 million. 3.2 Projected Age Structure Victoria s population age profile is projected to be older in 2051 than in The median age of the population is expected to increase from 37 years in 2011 to 41 years in The proportion of the population aged 65 years and older is projected to increase from 13.9% to 22.1%. The greatest proportional change for any age 1 (Dept Planning and Community Development, 2012) 2 (Dept Planning and Community Development, 2012) Page 5

10 group is projected to be in the oldest age group: the number of Victorians aged 85 years and older is expected to almost quadruple to over 400,000 by Figure 2: Projected population by age and sex, 2011 and 2031 (Source: Department of Planning and Community Development Victoria in Future 2012) Youth migration from regional Victoria to the city is occurring for education and career opportunities and as well as many young people regarding moving to the big smoke as a rite of passage into adulthood or attracted to the city s cosmopolitan lifestyle. Retirees and young families on the other hand are moving to regional Victoria for cost of living and lifestyle reasons. Figure 3 shows a significant level of migration of young people aged years to metropolitan Melbourne with high levels of and year olds also making this migration move. Conversely population groups aged 35 years and over appear to be migrating towards regional Victoria. Figure 3: Net migration Melbourne and regional Victoria by age, (Source: Department of Planning and Community Development Victoria in Future 2012) Page 6

11 3.3 Drivers of Projected Growth and Change On current trends, overseas migration is expected to be the largest driver of population change in Victoria over the projection period, although the impact of natural increase should not be discounted. Victoria in Future (VIF) 2012 projects that Melbourne will receive the majority of Victoria s overseas migrants and also experience high levels of natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). The main contributor to population change in regional Victoria is expected to be a result of the migration from Melbourne. As its population ages and the number of deaths increases, regional Victoria is projected to experience natural decreases in the later years of the projection period. (There are a number of municipalities where deaths already outnumber births each year.) 3.4 Spatial Patterns of Population Change Population and household projections also show significant parts of rural Victoria experiencing no or negligible growth over the coming twenty years. 3 Within Regional Victoria, population growth will be greatest in the regional centres, areas on the borders of Melbourne, and areas with significant amenity attractors such as coastal or riverfront locations. The three largest regional centre municipalities (Ballarat, Greater Bendigo and Greater Geelong) are expected to account for almost 40% of all population increase outside metropolitan Melbourne. Figure 4: Projected average annual rate of population growth across Victoria by LGA, (Source: Department of Planning and Community Development Victoria in Future 2012) 3 (Department Planning and Community Development, 2012) Page 7

12 4. Economic Development and Rural Industries 4.1 Projected Industry Changes RCV has recently conducted some comparative analysis on the projected change in industry importance for rural councils across Victoria as perceived by the councils themselves 4. Rural councils were asked to project which industries are currently their top five most important and how is this likely to change in ten years time. Figure 5 shows the projected changes in the coming decade. Key Points: Top 10 projected industries of importance in 10 years to be; 1. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; 2. Tourism; 3. Health and Community Services; 4. Retail Trade; 5. Manufacturing; 6. Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants; 7. Education; 8. Construction; 9. Renewable Energy; 10. Government Administration and Defence Emerging industries identified as: Cultural and Recreational Services Personal and Other Services Key growth industries identified as Tourism, Renewable Energy, Mining, Cultural and Recreation Services, and Personal and Other Services Figure 5: Most important industries to rural economies, 2011 and 2031 MOST IMPORTANT INDUSTRIES TO COUNCILS' LOCAL ECONOMIES Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Renewable Energy Construction Wholesale Trade Currently (2011) 10 Years (2021) Retail Trade Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants Transport and Storage Communication Services Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services Government Administration and Defence Education Health and Community Services Cultural and Recreational Services Tourism Personal and Other Services 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Percentage of councils that identified these industries within the top 5 most important to their municipality's local economies currently, and their predictions about the top 5 most important industries in 10 years (Source: Rural Councils Economic Development Activities and Capacity Audit, 2011) 4 (Rural Councils Victoria, 2011) Page 8

13 The findings show that: The importance of retail trade is anticipated to decrease. With the high levels of importance currently placed on retail by rural communities it will be vital to develop appropriate responses to deal with this change. It is also worth noting that despite the decrease in the importance of retail trade, it is predicted to still be important for 55% of councils in 10 years. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing was nominated by the highest number of councils as being within the five most important industries to their municipality s local economy (92%) and is anticipated to continue to remain as important in the next ten years. Tourism was predicted by 68% of councils, Health and Community Services (58%), Retail Trade (55%), and Manufacturing (53%) to be within the five most important industries to their municipality s local economy in ten years. Renewable Energy is expected to be the most significant emerging industry in terms of its importance to municipalities local economies with a 16% increase in the number of councils predicting this industry to be within the five most important in ten years as compared to currently (5% of councils in 2011; 21% in 2021). Growth in importance of mining has also been highlighted as an industry that councils perceive as having greater importance in 10 years. Construction and Retail Trade are expected to experience the most decline in terms of their importance to municipalities local economies, each with a 16% decrease in the number of councils predicting them to be within the five most important in ten years as compared to currently (Construction: 40% of councils in 2011; 24% in Retail Trade: 71% in 2011; 55% in 2021). Emerging industries, such as Cultural and Recreation and Personal Services have been identified as two new industries that will become important to rural councils. 4.2 Focus of Economic Development In the same comparative analysis, councils look likely to continue to focus on the same areas of economic development activity in 2011 as they did in There is no apparent evidence in the survey results as to why councils continue to focus on the same areas of work 5. Perhaps councils are confident that effort is being directed to program areas that maximise economic development outcomes. The danger, however, is that councils work programs may be rolling from one year to the next without a considered review of where resources and effort could be most effectively directed, especially in relation to attracting or retaining a sustainable population. The findings show that: Retention and expansion of existing business and industry continues to be the major area of focus in 2011 as it was in 2007, with 27% of councils nominating this activity within the two most important economic development priorities in 2011 and 30% doing so in Tourism promotion and product development was nominated as the second major focus both in 2011 (22% of councils) and 2007 (20%). Attraction of new business and industry was nominated as the third major focus both in 2011 and 2007, each time by 18% of councils. The largest increase in focus is in infrastructure development and education and training of the workforce, each with an additional 4% of councils now nominating these activities within the two most important economic development priorities. Facilitating / building local business and industry networks was nominated by 4% fewer councils in 2011, compared with 2007, as a major areas of focus. Identifying and supporting local leaders / entrepreneurs was not identified by any council in 2011 or 2007 as being within their top two economic development priorities. 5 (Rural Councils Victoria, 2011) Page 9

14 Figure 6: Rural councils economic development areas of focus, 2007 and 2011 COMPARISON BETWEEN 2007 AND 2011 MAJOR AREAS OF FOCUS Education and training of the local w orkforce Retention and expansion of existing business and industry Attraction of new business and industry Tourism promotion and product development Identifying and supporting local leaders / entrepreneurs 2011 Responses 2007 Responses Facilitating / building local business and industry netw orks Infrastructure development (Source: Rural Councils Victoria, 2011) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Page 10

15 5.0 Trends and Drivers This section of the report draws on existing available research to present the key population trends and drivers impacting rural communities. 5.1 The Tree-change Phenomenon Key Points: Majority of tree-changers are family units Most people migrating to rural communities desire to be close to services Amenity is an important influencer in migration The term tree-changer was first coined in the West Australian newspaper in February The term has enjoyed widespread exposure since that time and has been used by the media to describe a demographic group in Australia that, according to demographer Bernard Salt, numbered 2.4 million by One of the few academics currently focused on the area of the tree-change phenomenon, Angela Ragusa, suggests that those who make the move from capital cities to country towns in rural Australia are searching for a better lifestyle. In referring to rural migration, Ragusa 7 states, The complexities of modern Australian life have reached unprecedented levels of perceived dissatisfaction prompting a sizeable number of residents with the financial means, ambition and technological capacity to say enough is enough, pack their bags and leave. In a recent survey conducted with the real estate industry in NSW, the three most common groups wanting to make a move to the country are: Young families wanting to bring up children in a safe environment Retirees looking for a tree-change Inner city dwellers looking for a weekender. Tree-change is more prevalent in some states than others with Victoria probably being the greatest tree-change state due to Melbourne being so centrally located to the rest of the state. While there seems to be very little quantitative data on the reasons why people move from the city to the country there is some qualitative research undertaken. In 2007, Ragusa conducted 28 in depth interviews with people who had moved from metropolitan cities (Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide or Brisbane) to north east Victoria or southern NSW. Ragusa s key findings for why contemporary tree-changers relocate from cities to country towns in Australia include: Tree-changers interviewed ranged from 27 to 70 years of age, average age 43. The average age of respondents does not correlate with media stereotypes of the main groups of treechangers (wealthy baby boomers or struggling young families looking for cheap accommodation). 64% of respondents were generation X (born ). Tree-changers are mainly family units - 14% of respondents were single people. For 61% of tree-changers, financial reasons were not the main motivations for moving. Of those who did move for financial reasons, 54% were moving from Sydney. 68% moved into country towns, only 32 % purchased hobby farms or lifestyle blocks. Most desired a more country setting that is close to services. 6 (Salt, 2007) 7 (Ragusa, 2009) Page 11

16 Tree-changers retain strong social and employment links to city life, existing as a city/country hybrid. Most commute longer and further distances to retain past networks, some the equivalent of an extra two working days per week in order to live in the country. The interest of respondents in the natural environment of their tree-change destination were more closely aligned to open space and a quiet environment than explicitly escaping urban pollution, although for a small number with health issues this was a primary factor. Most respondents seemed to be continuing the great Australian suburban dream of owning their own home except moving from a city-based suburb to one based in a regional town. 5.2 Relocated Residents Survey In 2009, Regional Development Victoria (RDV) commissioned research into the key drivers for why people decided to relocate to regional Victoria. The study also looked at the sources of information they used to inform their decision along with their satisfaction levels with the move 8. The research reported on the 369 surveys that were completed by people who had relocated to regional Victoria within the previous ten years. Age distribution The most common age category of respondents was years (27%), followed by years (24%), years (18%) and years (15%). Drivers for relocation The three major reasons for relocating to regional Victoria were family reasons (48%), employment (44%) and lifestyle (27%). Respondents who had relocated to inland areas were significantly more likely to do so for reasons relating to cost of housing (26%) than residents of coastal locations (13%). Satisfaction with current location Key Points: After a work-life balance self-analysis: 60% of respondents reported that their experience of living in their new location was better than they had expected. 76% of respondents agreed that they were happy with the decision to move to their current location and 66% agreed that if they had to do it over again, they would. The majority of respondents considered themselves to be very likely (53%) or likely (17%) to remain in the region over at least the next five years. Only a relatively small proportion of respondents (19%) suggested they were unlikely to still be living in their current location in 5 years time. 67% would recommend their current location as a place to live to other people. Advantages and Disadvantages The major advantages of living in regional Victoria nominated by respondents the natural environment (51%) the community in which they now lived (49%) current lifestyle (42%). Key drivers for relocation family, employment and lifestyle Key information sources used friends and family, internet, and Real Estate Agents Access to educational opportunities key reason for migration of young people 8 ( Regional Development Victoria, 2009) Page 12

17 The major disadvantages of living in regional Victoria nominated by respondents poor services/ facilities/ infrastructure (33%) distance from Melbourne (17%). The most common elements missed by respondents shops/ restaurants (39%) family/ friends (38%) culture/ entertainment (27%). The most common element not missed by respondents Traffic was clearly the most nominated aspect of the city which was not missed by respondents (60%). Financial impacts Over a third of respondents (35%) had more disposable income in their new location and 27% had the same. 38% indicated that the move provided a lower disposable income. Over two-fifths of respondents (61%) suggested that the cost of living was either much lower (20%) or lower (41%) in regional Victoria compared to Melbourne. Satisfaction The majority of respondents (63%) felt more satisfied with their life as a whole, life at home and where they live now than they did prior to moving to regional Victoria. Locational benefits The three most important locational factors the Melbourne residents were seeking when considering relocation were lifestyle, health facilities and natural beauty and features. The three most highly rated factors based on actual living in regional Victoria were lifestyle, natural beauty and features and proximity to a major regional city. The three poorest rated features were public transport, employment prospects and business opportunities. The major strengths of living in regional Victoria were in relation to: lifestyle natural beauty and features safety cost of housing cost of living health facilities. Information sources 70% consulted some form of information before moving, particularly friends/relatives (28%), the internet (27%) and real estate agents (22%). Consulting with family and friends (35%) had the greatest influence followed by the internet (18%) and real estate agents (18%). The most common individuals or organisations consulted during the decision to move were real estate agents (46%) followed by local council (26%) and the new employer of respondents (24%). 5.3 Education Migration In 2009, a study by Fiona McKenzie from the Department of Planning and Community Development researched the migration (by age group) of people moving between metropolitan and regional areas in Victoria 9. Particular 9 (McKenzie, 2009) Page 13

18 attention focussed on young adults (a highly mobile cohort) and the role tertiary education was playing on their migration to and from metropolitan areas. It is clear from the research that there is a net loss of young people from the regional areas as many move to Melbourne for education and employment opportunities. Figure 7 shows the strongest net loss from regional Victoria in the15-24 year old age group. Figure 7: Net migration between regional Victoria and Melbourne by age, The study also explores young people s reasons and influencers for leavings and returning. These are summarised below. Reasons for leaving Even where a suitable course is available locally, many regional students will still take the opportunity to move to Melbourne for social and lifestyle reasons. For some it is the prestige of a city-based university which may be seen to enhance career prospects. For many it is a rite of passage towards an independent adult life. Although some will return at a later date to a regional area, many will remain in the city to pursue employment after university studies. Return migration Although there was return migration, the level was not nearly equal to the number of young people who had moved to the cities. McKenzie cites a longitudinal study by Hillman and Rothman which found that approximately 30% of young people who had relocated from a non-metropolitan area to a major city in the years following secondary school went on to experience a further move back to a non-metropolitan area within the observed seven year time period. Influencers to return Most of those who grew up in regional Victoria indicated that once they reach their thirties they will settle down in regional Victoria to raise children of their own. They want their kids to have a similar upbringing to themselves the freedom, space, a sense of community spirit, a perception of greater safety and the maintaining of innocence they feel they were lucky enough to have. 10 (McKenzie, 2009) Page 14

19 They are not necessarily committed to living in their original hometowns; rather they are willing to relocate to a new regional area or a regional city. The key factors influencing their decision to return to regional Victoria are: appropriate employment education opportunities for their children desire to be closer to family preference for rural lifestyle compared to the pressures of living in a city. Do those going to regional universities stay? There is some evidence that those who study at universities in regional Victoria are more likely to stay in regional areas after they graduate. 5.4 Potential Relocators Market research prepared in early 2012 for RDV profiles the attitudes and perceptions of people in relation to considerations for moving to regional Victoria. This research was specifically undertaken to advise RDV on the most targeted ways to encourage regional migration. 11 Key Points: 450,000 people plan to move to rural Victoria in next 3 years Visiting an area is reported to be the top information gathering strategy Real Estate Agents and websites are increasingly utilised source of information The following key findings were identified from this study: 11% of Melbournians are planning to move from Melbourne to regional Victoria (one of the 48 rural or regional councils) sometime in the next 3 years. This equates to around 450,000 people. A further 39% of Melbournians would like to make the move to regional Victoria one day in the future which equates to around 1,600,000 people. Almost half (49%) of Melbournians believe that they are very unlikely to ever make the move to Regional Victoria. Personally visiting the area of interest in regional Victoria was the top overall information gathering strategy for those considering such a move. Real estate websites and agencies located in the relevant areas of regional Victoria were also highly utilised information sources, and advertising on these websites and/or in conjunction with real estate agents in the relevant area could also provide opportunities to reach potential movers to regional Victoria at a relevant point in their planning processes. Roughly half of those interested in moving to regional Victoria had considered living in the country and commuting to Melbourne for work. This strategy was considered reasonably feasible by many in this segment with the main barriers being the perceived time and expense involved in commuting. There appears to be a significant requirement amongst potential movers to regional Victoria for websites providing information on housing, schooling and other infrastructure facilities in relevant localities. 11 (Regional Development Victoria, 2012) Page 15

20 6.0 Survey and Interviews 6.1 Methodology As part of the stakeholder consultation process a qualitative survey was conducted in July 2012 to understand the level and nature of population attraction and retention projects, initiatives and/or actions currently being undertaken by Victoria s 38 rural councils. This is information that has previously not been sought from rural councils. The survey was sent to all economic development officers of the 38 rural councils as well as the economic development officers of the ten regional city councils (Greater Geelong, Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Mildura, Wangaratta, Warrnambool, Wodonga, Greater Shepparton, Horsham and Latrobe). The survey response rates were: A total of 23 councils replied to the survey resulting in a response rate of 48%. Of the 23 councils, 21 were rural councils (55% response rate for rural councils) and 2 were regional city councils (20% response rate for regional city councils). One council replied to the survey twice (CEO and economic development officer). Three further rural councils commenced by did not complete the survey (reportedly due to under-resourcing). Key Points: All respondents are involved in specific projects, initiatives or Nine follow-up one-on-one phone interviews were held with economic development officers after the survey. actions to attract people to their municipality. Three quarters of respondents are targeting specific demographic groups. The key groups are: professional people (64%); families The interviewees were chosen on the basis of their survey responses and with a focus on identifying potential case studies to profile in this report. The discussions were also used to gain an understanding of the broader context of the work of the economic development officers and to obtain additional information on some of their activities. 6.3 Survey Analysis The survey was in two parts with part one focussing on population attraction and part two on population retention. (57%); business/industry (28%). One in four (27%) rural councils is not targeting a specific demographic group. The top five attraction activities are: the Regional Victoria Living Expo (61%); investment Attraction (38%); house and industrial land initiatives (38%); marketing (38%); place based planning (community infrastructure) (27%). The main initiatives that councils reported as being effective are: industry specific business attraction; development of prospectus (business case for investment) Community infrastructure; liveability plans; industrial/ housing land audits and rezoning. Most of the evidence for effectiveness of initiatives is anecdotal. Others seem to measure the effectiveness of initiatives through the levels of activity, such as the number of hits to the website. One council reported that marketing campaigns without appropriate resources to reach the target market (i.e. Melbournians) had limited effectiveness. One council reported that despite their best efforts nothing works as there was little apparent effect on the attraction of new residents. Page 16

21 6.4.1 Population Attraction Initiatives Current population attraction initiatives The first section of the survey asked rural councils whether they were engaged in population attraction initiatives, action or activities. All respondents reported they were involved in population attraction activities, a description of these follow: 61% of respondents (11 councils) mentioned the inaugural Regional Victoria Living Expo held in Melbourne in April 2012 as a primary activity for population attraction. Most councils found this initiative especially valuable as it attracted people who were considering a move to rural Victoria. Most rural councils indicated they would prepare more targeted information for people at the next Expo. Housing and land initiatives, and marketing and investment attraction were reported by 38% of councils as key population attraction activities following the Regional Victoria Living Expo. Investment attraction is a key activity of the economic development officers in all of the rural councils. A number of councils are increasingly targeting specific industries and businesses that have a fit with their key industry priorities. Some councils were directly working with developers while others were looking for co-investment funds from the State Government. One rural council was lobbying with others to attract natural gas to their area to stimulate business investment. 38% are involved in housing and industrial land initiatives. Most of these councils are involved in making developable land available to attract new businesses and residents to relocate to and invest in their rural areas. In relation to Housing and Industrial land initiatives, councils reported being focused on attracting new business and residents to relocate and invest in their area. A number mentioned involvement in the Good Move campaign, a State Government funded media campaign profiling the experiences of people who have made the move to rural Victoria. Place-based planning relates to rural councils working on community infrastructure plans that focus on the provision of attractive streetscapes and village shopping strips as well as upgraded community infrastructure like child care centres, community and sporting hubs. A small number of councils are also focussing on tourism infrastructure in areas such as the improvement of websites and Visitor Information Centres. Two councils were directly involved in advocating for additional transport infrastructure, in areas designated as growth corridors. One council indicated that one of their initiatives involves distributing brochures promoting their area through local real estate agents. One council is leveraging their connection to the famous racehorse Black Caviar in a bid to raise their profile to potential residents and business especially in relation to their growing equine industry. Figure 8 shows the major focus for population attraction activity by rural councils. The Regional Victoria Living Expo is obviously playing a significant and direct role in population attraction activity. Page 17

22 Figure 8: Rural council initiatives for attracting population Initiatives for Attraction Regional Living Expo Investment attraction Housing/Industrial Land Initiatives Council Marketing Placed based planning Employment Initiatives Tourism Infrastructure State Gov Initiatives Transport Infrastrucure No. of Councils Demographic groups for population attraction The next section of the survey focussed on whether there was a specific demographic grouping that rural councils were targeting their population attraction initiatives towards. 66% of councils are targeting a specific demographic grouping leaving almost one in three councils without a targeted approach to their population attraction activities. Of those targeting specific groups, the following is indicated through the survey findings: 75% of those targeting a specific demographic group are targeting skilled professionals, closely followed by 66% who are targeting families. 33% are targeting business of industry as part of their population attraction. A small number are directly targeting skilled and unskilled workers. Interestingly, the value of the Regional Victoria Living Expo to rural councils is possibly due to its ability to attract the highest target groupings for rural councils, that being professional and families. Figure 9 shows these target groups. Page 18

23 Figure 9: Specific demographic groups rural councils are focussed on attracting Skilled professionals Targets for Attraction Families Business/industry Skilled workers Unskilled workers No. of Councils Success of population attraction initiatives This question attempted to understand the nature and success or otherwise of population attraction activities. There was a mixed response to this question with a number of respondents indicating that nothing works in this current economic climate without jobs. Other rural councils cited specific examples of successful initiatives, some of which are listed below. Activities that have worked 37% of respondents reported the Regional Victoria Living Expo as having worked : One council reported that targeted strategies, particularly promotional material that included information about available jobs, has led to multiple families moving from Melbourne to the area. One council had tracked a number of land sales attributed to the Expo. For some councils the measure of success was that they now had a good database of people with who they could follow-up. Some councils reported receiving several enquiries about their area and services as a direct outcome of the Expo. A few councils suggested it was too early to assess the impact of the Expo. Other specific projects reported to have been successful include: targeted job creation initiatives, such as the Luv-a-Duck business based at Nhill specifically targeted recently arrived Karen people (an ethnic group from Burma/Thailand) living in Melbourne for employment, and True Foods relocating to Maryborough in 2011 created 110 local jobs five north east Victoria councils combining marketing efforts with surrounding councils to bundle employment and lifestyle opportunities into a high exposure print and web campaign (see case study in section 8) leveraging the public and media interest around the famous racehorse, Black Caviar, to promote the are as a place to live and invest keeping the region front of mind in the tourism market through an annual tactical marketing campaign opening up land for industrial and residential development to attract new residents and business investment. The success of this approach is partly attributed to the close location of the municipality to a rapidly expanding regional city. Gannawarra Shire s approach to new industry development with a focus on large scale solar projects which includes the development of a business prospectus and targeted approaches to industry leaders (see section 8 case study). Page 19

24 The following are some comments from survey respondents on successful attraction initiatives: Activities that haven t worked 25% of respondents reported that population attraction isn t currently working for them largely due to the broader economic climate since the Global Financial Crisis compounded by recent floods, fires and droughts. One council suggested that nothing seems to be working in attracting new residents and they don t know why. This response may be indicative of a number of shires feeling stretched by a multitude of expectations placed on very finite resources. The Promises Kept campaign, a web and marketing based attraction initiative by the Corangamite Shire was reported as limited in its success due a lack of financial resources. Below are some indicative comments: Key Points: Only 71% of respondents are engaged in population retention projects, initiatives or actions. Only 50% of respondents are targeting specific demographic groups. The key groups are: young people (50%) young families (25%) skilled workers (16%). The top five retention activities are: education and training (youth focused) business assistance industry development community infrastructure hubs land audit/rezoning. Apart from targeted business assistance programs there appears to be little indication that retention initiatives are working. As well, where there are evaluation frameworks to assess success, these seem to lack rigor. Respondent s report that attempts to provide education and training programs as a population retention initiative (focused on young people) may have limited impact in light Page 20

25 Other successful population attraction initiatives This enquiry into successful initiatives elsewhere (i.e. in other municipalities, states or countries) showed that most economic development officers 77% were not aware of successful population attraction initiatives being implemented elsewhere, either in Victoria, Australia or overseas. Of the 22% of respondents who did know of initiatives, their replies were: An unnamed program in the US focussed on encouraging former residents back to rural communities in their 30s to start families New industry business case development and prospectus (e.g. Gannawarra Shire) State Government initiatives including the Regional Victoria Living Expo and marketing campaigns Population Retention Initiatives Current population retention initiatives The second section of the survey asked rural councils whether they were engaged in population retention initiatives, actions or activities. 71% of respondents are directly engaged in population retention projects, initiatives or actions meaning that 29% of rural councils participating in the survey are not engaged in population retention activities. This means that more than one in four respondent rural councils are not making any active or deliberate attempts to hold onto their existing population. One might assume that these councils may be coastal shires experiencing growth; however this is only the case for one of the respondents. The survey results highlight the wide range of attraction initiatives in which rural councils are current engaged: The most common retention initiative by 41% of rural councils with retention initiatives is in the area of education and training predominantly focussed on stemming the flow of young people out of rural communities. This is achieved by making young people aware of education and employment opportunities locally as well as transitional pathways. Rural councils are actively engaged in networks and direct support programs. The next most common retention initiative indicated by 33% of respondents is direct assistance programs for business. This mainly involves training, skills workshops and mentoring. The next most common retention activity (25%) is industry development described by one respondent as our key economic activity is the retention and expansion of existing business so that we achieve a flow on effect regarding population. Similarly 25% of respondents described the importance of developing attractive and high functioning community infrastructure as critical to retaining their populations. A related area is also streetscapes and the importance of these areas being attractive and inviting. The focus includes: community hubs regenerating town halls schools/child care centres recreational facilities tracks and trails. Another area reported by 25% of respondents was that of land audits and rezoning. A number of councils are auditing land to make it more available and attractive for housing and/or business expansion. For example, one of the rural councils has rezoned land specifically to support local tourism businesses and Page 21

26 potentially future investment. This has facilitated greater local investment in business, having a flow-on impact of people deepening their economic and community commitment to their local region. Other retention initiatives mentioned by survey respondents were the role of professional networks in retaining population, leadership programs focussed on young people, volunteering and their liveability strategy. Figure 10: Initiatives being undertaken by rural councils for population retention Initiatives for Retention Education & training Business assistance Industry Development Community Infrastructure-Hubs Land Audits/rezoning Street Scapes Professional networks Liveability Strategies Young people/leadership Volunteer programs No. of Councils Demographic groups for population retention The next section focussed on whether there was a specific demographic grouping that rural councils were targeting for their population retention initiatives. 50% of respondents only are targeting specific demographic groupings to retain. Of these, the focus of half of these rural councils is on retaining young people through predominantly education, training and employment programs. Figure 11 highlights the clear focus on retaining young people. 25% of respondents are focussed on young families, followed by skilled workers (two councils) business (one council). Page 22

27 Figure 11: Specific demographic groups rural councils are targeting for retention Targets for Retention Young people Young families Skilled workers No. of councils Business Success of population retention initiatives In general, there were very few details provided for activities involving specific retention activities. Activities that have worked The majority of respondents indicated that they couldn t be sure what retention initiatives are working as they have little way of knowing. A small number reported having active relationships with local businesses enabling them to identify and address issues as they arise. Similar to attraction, one council was looking to retain tree-changers who have moved to the community seeking affordable housing. The development of a local TAFE college in recent years had been successful in providing one rural council with local education opportunities for young people. One rural council was having success with a career pathways program. Another was providing rates packages to retain their population. The following are some comments from survey respondents on successful retention initiatives: Page 23

28 Activities that haven t worked A small number suggested that recent government policy impacts (on particular rural industries) were adversely impacting local jobs and that a lack of industry incentives meant finding replacement jobs is difficult. A number mentioned the uncertainty of education funding was not helping the retention of young people in rural communities. The major reason for respondents indicating why initiatives hadn t worked was a lack of evaluation. Below is a sample of the responses. Other successful population retention initiatives Only four or 19% or respondents were aware of retention activities that had worked elsewhere, being: Government intervention with a business closing in Geelong Economic development initiatives along the Murray River offering direct support for agricultural diversification to create more permanent employment Economic gardening type projects that enhance local employment, being implemented in communities overseas Youth leadership programs and online learning opportunities Other Survey Comments Respondents were invited to provide any other comments relating to population attraction and retention. Their replies are as follow: Retaining and attracting population is difficult in the current economic climate given the limited job opportunities available. This is compounded in our region by, poor public transport options, limited secondary and post-secondary educational opportunities, and flow on impacts of the 2009 bushfires. Our focus is on tree-changers /lifestylers looking for a clean and green option in close proximity to the city and retaining young people by adding to their options (work and education) in any ways we can. Council has limited resources to specifically dedicate to attracting and /or retaining population to the Shire. Population attraction is a critical issue for us. We are concerned about our ageing population and the impacts that this will have on future service delivery and workforce. We have a very low unemployment rate and a lack of workers is a constraint on our economy and many businesses struggle to find both skilled and unskilled workers. Page 24