The State of Shared Prosperity in the Philippines

Transcription

1 The State of Shared rosperity in the hilippines mmanuel M. Garcia Jamil aolo S. Francisco Christopher d C. Caboverde The Filipino Vision Upper middle-income economy by 2020 Ambisyon 2040: Middle-class Filipino society 1

2 Shared rosperity nsures equitable distribution of economic opportunities and benefits Boosts GD growth Fosters social cohesion and political stability Competitiveness: productivity, market dynamism Drivers of conomic Growth Service sector Grew 6.4% per year from 2010 to 2014 T-BO Tourism Construction Manufacturing 2

3 Drivers of conomic Growth Consumption-driven growth 7 of GD Has been key to resilience to external shocks merging middle class OFW remittances are growing at a decreasing rate Assessing Shared rosperity Rising standards of living for all citizens ndicators: overty, ncome, mployment 3

4 Assessing Shared rosperity Rising standards of living for all citizens ndicators: overty, ncome, mployment Assessing Shared rosperity Rising standards of living for all citizens ndicators: overty, ncome, mployment 4

5 Assessing Shared rosperity Rising standards of living for all citizens ndicators: overty, ncome, mployment overty ersistent poverty Large disparities among regions Transitional poverty 5

6 overty ncidence 1 in 5 families are poor Self-Rated overty 1 in 5 families are poor But half of all families feel poor 6

7 Transitional overty 1 in 5 families are poor Half of all families feel poor Forty percent experience cyclical poverty ncome nequality remains high Large percentage gains for the poorest Slow real income growth Low-paying jobs 7

8 8 Total Family ncome Distribution t h 7 t h 9 t h 8 t h 1 s t 2 n d 4 t h 3 r d 5 t h 10 t h Average Basic ay in Constant 2006 rices Declined from to rofessional wages are vulnerable to external shocks Only managers, clerical support staff, and agricultural workers experienced growth in real daily wages

9 mployment Rising employment rate Underemployment n-work poverty Low participation of women and youth mployment Low elasticity of employment to GD growth, particularly in agriculture and industry ( ) conomic growth in the last decade was not jobless, but working poverty remained an issue 9

10 Labor Force articipation Labor Force articipation 10

11 Labor Force articipation Gender Gap 11

12 Underemployment 2 of employed want more work Half of the underemployed work less than 40 hours a week Youth Unemployment Labor force participation around half 15% youth unemployment 25% of youth are not in education or employment 12

13 Challenges for Shared rosperity Secure recent gains Address transitional poverty ncrease labor productivity Foster high value-added sectors Serve disenfranchised or untapped markets mployment, credit, consumption and investment, rural communities and provinces Recommendations nvest in education and skills training; mprove job-skills matching ndustry-institution partnerships hiljobs.net, TSDA training and placement ncourage technological investment and innovation ndustry roadmaps nternet economy Support entrepreneurship Go Negosyo centers, financial literacy education, microfinancing Resolve conflict 13

14 The State of Shared rosperity in the hilippines Thank you overty ncidence % % NCR Balance Luzon Visayas Mindanao 14

15 overty among Families NCR Balance Luzon Visayas Mindanao overty ncidence 75% 6 45% 3 15% * 15

16 overty among Families * Subsistence ncidence 23% 15% 8% NCR Balance Luzon Visayas Mindanao 16

17 Subsistence ncidence among families 2 16% 12% 8% % NCR Balance Luzon Visayas Mindanao Real ncome Changes st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th ncome Decile 17

18 Subsistence ncidence * Subsistence ncidence among Families 3 23% 15% 8% * 18

19 Family ncome Distribution 10 75% 5 25% Top Bottom Family ncome Distribution 10 75% 5 25% Top Bottom

20 Family ncome Distribution 10 75% 5 25% Top Bottom Real ncome Changes st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th ncome Decile 20

21 Total Household xpenditure 5,000,000 3,750,000 2,500,000 1,250, ,000 and over 100, ,999 60,000-99,999 40,000-59,999 Under 40, Corporate ncome Tax Receipts Constant 2006 rices, h Billions

22 Average Family ncome Constant 2006 rices, h 400, , , , , , ,000 50, hilippines Bottom 40 Middle 30 Top 30 xpenditure Distribution Relative to ncome, All Families 9 68% 45% 23% Food Transport and communication Medical care Alcoholic and tobacco products Housing, fuel, light and water ducational fees Clothing, footwear and other wear Others 22

23 12 xpenditure Distribution Relative to ncome, hp 60,000-99,999 ncome Class Food Housing, fuel, light and water Transport and communication Clothing, footwear and other wear ducational fees Alcoholic and tobacco products Medical care Others xpenditure Distribution Relative to ncome, hp 40,000-59,999 ncome Class Food Housing, fuel, light and water Transport and communication Clothing, footwear and other wear ducational fees Alcoholic and tobacco products Medical care Others 23

24 xpenditure Distribution Relative to ncome, Under hp 40,000 ncome Class Food Housing, fuel, light and water Transport and communication Alcoholic and tobacco products Medical care Clothing, footwear and other wear ducational fees Others Average Basic ay Constant 2006 rices

25 Average Basic ay Constant 2006 rices Average Basic ay Constant 2006 rices

26 Average Basic ay Constant 2006 rices Average Basic ay Constant 2006 rices

27 Female mployment Rate 58% 46% 35% 23% 12% Drivers of conomic Growth 6 Sectoral Contribution to GD at Constant 2000 rices 45% 3 15% AHFF Manufacturing Services Other industries 27

28 Drivers of conomic Growth 32,500,000 Overseas Filipino s Cash Remittances and Annual Growth Rates, in Thousands of US Dollars 28% 26,000,000 19,500,000 13,000,000 6,500,000 19% 9% 0-9% Cash Remittances in Thousands of US Dollars Annual Growth Rate in ercent 28