Public Opinion. POLS 8180, Fall 2012 Wednesday 6:50-9:50, Baldwin 302 Website:

Instructor: Jamie Monogan Office: Baldwin 413 Phone: 706-542-5891 Public Opinion POLS 8180, Fall 2012 Wednesday 6:50-9:50, Baldwin 302 Website: http://j.mp/pubopin E-mail: monogan@uga.edu Office hours: Thurs 2:00-5:00 or by appointment Course Description and Goals A wide range of both normative and positive research has articulated varying expectations for the public within a democracy. This course is designed to provide an understanding of the ability of citizens to meet these various expectations. The focus of the course will be on the opinions of citizens rather than public officials. We will cover how citizens structure their political opinions, what factors cause these opinions to change, and how representative public policy is of public opinion. Moreover, the course will evaluate the utility of various theoretical perspectives and methodological approaches used to study public opinion. The readings in this course are designed to: (1) provide students with the foundational knowledge of the field of public opinion (where have we been), (2) provide students with a glimpse into current research relating to the core research questions each week (where we are going), and (3) provide insight into how the study of public opinion fits into our broader understanding of politics. Although the course covers numerous disparate topics, it is important to realize that public opinion subfield is so large that many subjects worthy of consideration must be excluded from our seminar. Hence, topics such as political socialization, social identities (class, religion, gender, ethnic), social movements, social capital, social networks, and genetics will be covered intermittently or not at all. Students are encouraged to explore these topics in more detail within the context of their own research paper for the course. By the end of the course, you should be able to: Evaluate and conduct survey research. Explain current theories of public opinion and political theory. Evaluate the quality of other studies empirical tests of theories of political behavior. Distinguish individual-level and aggregate-level opinion research both for how theory is developed and how theories are methodologically tested. Create original research on public opinion and political behavior. 1

Reading Many of the readings are journal articles, which participants are responsible for locating. (Please note: Many weeks list further reading. These readings are only listed for the student s reference and can be skipped during this semester.) There also are several required books for this course: Delli Carpini, Michael X. and Scott Keeter. 1996. What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. ISBN-13: 978-0300072754 Fowler, Floyd J., Jr. 2009. Survey Research Methods. 4th ed. Washington, DC: Sage. ISBN-13: 978-1-4129-5841-7 Iyengar, Shanto and Donald Kinder. 2010. News That Matters. Updated ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. ISBN-13: 978-0226388588 Marcus, George E., W. Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen. 2000. Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. ISBN-13: 978-0226504698 Mutz, Diana C. 1998. Impersonal Influence. New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN-13: 978-0521637268 Stimson, James A. 2004. Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN-13: 978-0521601177 Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN-13: 978-0521407861 Students with Disabilities Students with disabilities that have been certified by the UGA Disabilities Services office will be accommodated according to university policy. For more information, contact Disabilities Services at 542-8719. If you cannot reach class on the third floor of Baldwin Hall or my office on the fourth floor by stairs, please notify me as soon as possible so I can work to make new arrangements. Academic Integrity Academic integrity is a core value of institutions of higher learning. All students, upon enrolling, must pledge: I will be academically honest in all of my academic work and will not tolerate academic dishonesty of others. It is your responsibility to avoid plagiarism, cheating, and dishonesty. The university policy on academic integrity is posted at: http://www.uga.edu/honesty/. To qualify the application of the policy in this course: papers should be your own work though you may ask others for suggestions, and studying and class preparation can (and should) be done with others. 2

Course Requirements and Evaluation Every week you are required to read the required articles and books before class. You also must formulate at three questions per week pertaining to the week s readings and e-mail these questions to course participants no later than 7:00pm the day prior to the course meeting. (Remember to include the instructor in this e-mail, as this is part of your grade.) During any given class, I may call on a student a random to answer a question or lead a discussion on one or more of the assigned readings. As such, you are expected to read all of the assigned material, to analyze it seriously, and to demonstrate that you have read and mastered that material by sharing your views and evaluations with the class. This class is a collaborative enterprise. For the seminar to be a useful learning experience you must come to class every week and be prepared to participate in discussions. Doing all of this is essential to receiving a top grade in the class, as well as to the development of your research agenda. Each student must serve as the discussion leader for one of our class meetings. As the discussion leader, please meet with the instructor in office hours prior to class and incorporate students questions into the discussion. How well you prepare and lead the discussion will be evaluated as part of your grade. The research project will require you to write an original research paper related to the course. Topics and research proposals must be cleared with the instructor before September 30. Although much of the reading for this course focuses on American politics, students may explore research questions outside of this context. You may combine your work on this paper with the work for a project you are doing in a methods course, if the instructor of the methods course permits it. Write this paper as you would for journal submission. If you are unsure of what to write about, Gary King s article, Publication, Publication offers a strategy for doing a replication study: http://bit.ly/pubpub. If we have the opportunity for student presentations, either through a poster session or in class, then 5 points of your paper grade will be based on your presentation. Research papers are due at the start of class on November 28. The final exam will be held in class and serves as practice for the afternoon (subfield) portion of a Ph.D. comprehensive exam. I will give you a study guide ahead of time, and then you will be asked to answer two questions in a three-hour time span. Your final grade will be based on the sum of points earned from the following assignments: Class participation, talking points, & attendance Serving as the discussion leader Research paper Final exam 30 pts. 10 pts. 40 pts. 20 pts. Grades are constructed to reflect the university standards posted at http://bulletin.uga.edu/bulletin_files/acad/grades.html, which are summarized below. Grades will be based on how many points you earn according to the following distribution: Excellent A-=90-92 pts. A=93-100 pts. Good B-=80-82 pts. B=83-86 pts. B+=87-89 pts. Satisfactory C-=70-72 pts. C=73-76 pts. C+=77-79 pts. Passing D =60-69 pts. Failure F =fewer than 60 pts. 3

Auditing the Course Course auditors are welcome in this class, provided there are enough students enrolled for credit. Please keep up with weekly reading and please participate. To audit a course: Access the student registration main menu from the main page on OASIS. Once selected, sign up for the course you wish to audit as usual. Once it is on your schedule on OASIS, select change credit hours or grading status from the top of your schedule screen. This will allow you to change the course from a credited course to an audit status. Please note that you must select audit status before the Drop/Add period ends for students or you will not be able to audit the course. COURSE SCHEDULE Aug. 15: Survey Research Methodology and Course Introduction Fowler, Floyd J., Jr. 2009. Survey Research Methods. 4th ed. Washington, DC: Sage. Langer, Gary. 2003. About Response Rates: Some Unresolved Questions. Public Perspective May/June:16-18. Berinsky, Adam J. 2002. Silent Voices: Social Welfare Policy Opinions and Political Equality in America. American Journal of Political Science 46(2):276-287. Althaus, Scott. 2006. False Starts, Dead Ends, and New Leads. Critical Review 18(1-3):75-104. Available online: http://faculty.las.illinois.edu/salthaus/publications/althaus_2006_cr.pdf Keeter, Scott. 2007. How Serious is Polling s Cell-Only Problem? Pew Research Center for the People & Press. Available online: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem. Rivers, Douglas. N.D. Sampling for Web Surveys. Stanford University and Polimetrix. Aug. 22: Ideology Converse, Philip E. 1964. The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. In Ideology and Discontent, ed. David Apter. New York: Free Press. Achen, Christopher H. 1975. Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response. American Political Science Review 69(4):1218-1231. Conover, Pamela Johnston, and Stanley Feldman. 1981. The Origins and Meaning of Liberal/Conservative Self-Identifications. American Journal of Political Science 25(4):617-645. Jennings, M. Kent. 1992. Ideological Thinking Among Mass Publics and Political Elites. Public Opinion Quarterly 56(4):419-441. 4

Lacy, Dean. 2001. A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses. American Journal of Political Science 45(2):239-258. Treier, Shawn and D. Sunshine Hillygus. 2009. The Nature of Political Ideology in the Contemporary Electorate. Public Opinion Quarterly 73(4):679-703. Lane, Robert E. 1962. Political Ideology. New York: Free Press. Converse, Philip E. 2006. Democratic Theory and Reality. Critical Review 18(1-3):297-330. Aug. 29: NO CLASS, APSA ANNUAL MEETING Sept. 5: Citizen competence Delli Carpini, Michael X. and Scott Keeter. 1996. What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Luskin, Robert C. 1987. Measuring Political Sophistication. American Journal of Political Science 31(4):856-899. Luskin, Robert C. 1990. Explaining Political Sophistication. Political Behavior 12(4):331-361. Gilens, Martin. 2001. Political Ignorance and Collective Policy Preferences. American Political Science Review 95(2):379-396. Jerit, Jennifer, Jason Barabas, and Toby Bolsen. 2006. Citizens, Knowledge, and the Information Environment. American Journal of Political Science 50(2)266-282. Sept. 12: Partisanship Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley. Chapters 6 and 7. Franklin, Charles H. and John E. Jackson. 1983. The Dynamics of Party Identification. American Political Science Review 77(4):957-973. MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. 1989. Macropartisanship. American Political Science Review 83(4):1125-1142. Schickler, Eric and Donald Philip Green. 1997. The Stability of Party Identification in Western Democracies: Results from Eight Panel Surveys. Comparative Political Studies 30(4):450-483. Bartels, Larry. 2002. Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions. Political Behavior 24(2):117-150. Carsey, Thomas and Geoffrey C. Layman. 2006. Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate. American Journal of Political Science 50(2):464-477. 5

Fiorina, Morris. 1981. Explorations of a Political Theory of Party Identification. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Green, Donald Philip, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler. 1998. Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique. American Political Science Review 92:883-899. Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 1998. What Moves Macropartisanship? A Reply to Green, Palmquist, and Schickler. American Political Science Review 92:901-912. Sept. 19: Mass media Diana C. Mutz 1998. Impersonal Influence. New York: Cambridge University Press. Katz, Elihu. 1957. The Two-Step Flow of Communication: An Up-To-Date Report on an Hypothesis. Public Opinion Quarterly 21(1):68-78. Bartels, Larry M. 1993. Messages Received: The Political Impact of Media Exposure. American Political Science Review 87(2):267-285. Prior, Markus. 2005. News vs. Entertainment: How Increasing Media Choice Widens Gaps in Political Knowledge and Turnout. American Journal of Political Science 49(3):577-592. Hopkins, Daniel. 2010. Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition. American Political Science Review 104(1):40-60. Lazarsfeld, Paul F., Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet. 1968 [1944]. The People s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. 3rd ed. New York: Columbia University Press. Sept. 26: Core values and value pluralism Tetlock, Philip E. 1986. A Value Pluralism Model of Ideological Reasoning. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 50(4):819-827. Peffley, Mark A. and Jon Hurwitz. 1987. How are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model. American Political Science Review 81(4):1099-1120. Feldman, Stanley. 1988. Structure and Consistency in Public Opinion: The Role of Core Beliefs and Values. American Journal of Political Science 32(2):416-440. Alvarez, R. Michael and John Brehm. 1995. American Ambivalence Towards Abortion Policy: Development of a Heteroskedastic Probit Model of Competing Values. American Journal of Political Science 39:1055-1082. 6

McCann, James A. 1997. Electoral Choices and Core Value Change: The 1992 Presidential Campaign. American Journal of Political Science 41(2):564-583. Goren, Paul, Christopher M. Federico, and Miki Caul Kittilson. 2009. Source Cues, Partisan Identities, and Political Value Expression. American Journal of Political Science 53(4):805-820. Peffley, Mark A. and Jon Hurwitz. 1985. A Hierarchical Model of Attitude Constraint. American Journal of Political Science 29(4):871-890. Schwartz, Shalom H. 1992. Universals in the Content and Structure of Values. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 25:1-65. Alvarez, R. Michael and John Brehm. 2002. Hard Choices, Easy Answers. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Feldman, Stanley. 2003. Values, Ideology, and the Structure of Political Attitudes. In Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, ed. David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis. New York: Oxford University Press, 477-508. Steenbergen, Marco and Paul Brewer. 2004. The Not-So-Ambivalent Public. In Studies in Public Opinion: Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change, ed. Willem E. Saris and Paul M. Sniderman. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Jacoby, William G. 2006. Value Choices and American Public Opinion. American Journal of Political Science 50(3):706-723. Oct. 3: Information processing Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press. Hastie, Reid and Bernadette Park. 1986. The Relationship Between Memory and Judgment Depends on Whether the Judgment Task is Memory-Based or On-Line. Psychological Review 93(3):258-268. Lodge, Milton, Marco R. Steenbergen, and Shawn Brau. 1995. The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation. American Political Science Review 89(2):309-326. Althaus, Scott L. 1998. Information Effects in Collective Preferences. American Political Science Review 92:545-558. Gilens, Martin. 2005. Political Ignorance and Collective Policy Preferences. American Political Science Review 95(2):379-396. Lodge, Milton, Kathleen McGraw, and Patrick Stroh. 1989. An Impression-Driven Model of Candidate Evaluation. American Political Science Review 83(2):399-419. 7

Tourangeau, Roger, Lance J. Rips, and Kenneth Rasinski. 2000. The Psychology of the Survey Response. New York: Cambridge University Press. Oct. 10: Political persuasion Alvarez, R. Michael and Jonathan Nagler. 1995. Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election. American Journal of Political Science 39:714-744. Koch, Jeffrey W. 1998. Political Rhetoric and Political Persuasion: The Changing Structure of Citizens Preferences on Health Insurance During Policy Debate. Public Opinion Quarterly 62:209-229. Cialdini, Robert B. 2001. Harnessing the Science of Persuasion. Harvard Business Review (October):72-79. Gibson, James L. 2002. Becoming Tolerant? Short-Term Changes in Russian Political Culture. British Journal of Political Science 32:309-334. Taber, Charles S. and Milton Lodge. 2006. Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs. American Journal of Political Science 50(3):755-769. Goldstein, Noah J., Robert B. Cialdini, and Vladas Griskevicius. 2008. A Room with a Viewpoint: Using Social Norms to Motivate Environmental Conservation in Hotels. Journal of Consumer Research 35(3):472-482. Gibson, James L. and Amanda Gouws. 2003. Overcoming Intolerance in South Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press. Oct. 17: Political communication beyond persuasion Iyengar, Shanto and Donald Kinder. 2010. News That Matters. Updated ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Nelson, Thomas E., Rosalee A. Clawson, and Zoe M. Oxley. 1997. Media Framing of a Civil Liberties Conflict and Its Effect on Tolerance. American Political Science Review 91(3):567-583. Miller, Joanne M. and Jon A. Krosnick. 2000. News Media Impact on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations: Politically Knowledgable Citizens Are Guided by a Trusted Source. American Journal of Political Science 44(2):301-315. Druckman, James N. 2001. On the Limits of Framing Effects: Who Can Frame? Journal of Politics 63(4):1041-1066. Chong, Dennis and James N. Druckman. 2007. Framing Public Opinion in Competitive Democracies. American Political Science Review 101(4):637-655. Oct. 24: External cues 8

Brady, Henry E. and Paul M. Sniderman. 1985. Attitude Attribution: A Group Basis for Political Reasoning. American Political Science Review 79(4):1061-1078. Devine, Patricia G. 1989. Stereotypes and Prejudice: Their Automatic and Controlled Components. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56(1):5-18. Lupia, Arthur. 1994. Shortcuts versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections. American Political Science Review 88(1):63-76. Peffley, Mark, Jon Hurwitz, and Paul Sniderman. 1997. Racial Stereotypes and Whites Political Views of Blacks in the Context of Welfare and Crime. American Journal of Political Science 41(1):30-60. Kuklinski, James. H., Paul J. Quirk, Jennifer Jerit, and Robert F. Rich. 2001. The Political Environment and Citizen Competence. American Journal of Political Science 45(2):410-424. Darmofal, David. 2005. Elite Cues and Citizen Disagreement with Expert Opinion. Political Research Quarterly 58(3):381-395. Kuklinski and Quirk. 2000. Reconsidering the Rational Public: Cognition, Heuristics, and Mass Opinion. In Elements of Reason, ed. Arthur Lupia, Mathew McCubbins, and Samuel Popkin. New York: Cambridge University Press. Kuklinski, James H. and Paul J. Quirk. 2001. Conceptual Foundations of Citizen Competence. Political Behavior 23(3):285-311. Jackman, Simon and Paul M. Sniderman. 2002. Institutional Organization of Choice Spaces: A Political Conception of Political Psychology. In Political Psychology, ed. Kristen Renwick Monroe. Mahway, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Press, 209-221. Oct. 31: Affect and emotions Marcus, George E., W. Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen. 2000. Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Sears, David O., Richard R. Lau, Tom R. Tyler, and Harris M. Allen, Jr. 1980. Self-Interest vs. Symbolic Politics in Policy Attitudes and Presidential Voting. American Journal of Political Science 74(3):670-684. Zajonc, R. B. 1980. Feeling and Thinking: Preferences Need No Inferences. The American Psychologist 35(2):151-175. Sears, David O. 1993. Symbolic Politics: A Socio-Psychological Theory. In Explorations in Political Psychology, ed. Shanto Iyengar and William J. McGuire. Durham, NC: Duke University Press. Chapter 5. Burden, Barry C. and Casey A. Klofstad. 2005. Affect and Cognition in Party Identification. Political Psychology 26(6):869-886. 9

Nov. 7: Evaluations of government Miller, Arthur H. 1974. Political Issues and Trust in Government: 1964-1970. American Political Science Review 68(3):951-972. Citrin, Jack. 1974. Comment: The Political Relevance of Trust in Government. American Political Science Review 68(3):973-988. MacKuen, Michael B. Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. 1992. Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy. American Political Science Review 86(3):597-611. Kimball, David C. and Samuel C. Patterson. 1997. Living up to Expectations: Public Attitudes toward Congress. Journal of Politics 59(3):701-728. Hibbing, John R. and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse. 2001. Process Preferences and American Politics: What the People Want Government to Be. American Political Science Review 95(1):145-153. Keele, Luke. 2007. Social Capital and the Dynamics of Trust in Government. American Journal of Political Science 51(2):241-254. Gibson, James L. 2008. Challenges to the Impartiality of State Supreme Courts: Legitimacy Theory and New-Style Judicial Campaigns. American Political Science Review 102(1):59-75. Nov. 14: Aggregate public opinion Stimson, James A. 2004. Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press. Page, Benjamin I., Robert Y. Shapiro, and Glenn R. Dempsey. 1987. What Moves Public Opinion? American Political Science Review 81(1):23-44. Durr, Robert H. 1993. What Moves Policy Sentiment? American Political Science Review 87(1):158-170. Wlezien, Christopher. 1995. The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending. American Journal of Political Science 39(4):981-1000. Enns, Peter K. and Paul M. Kellstedt. 2008. Policy Mood and Political Sophistication: Why Everybody Moves Mood. British Journal of Political Science 38(3):433-454. Carmines, Edward G. and James A. Stimson. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 10

Page, Benjamin I. and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Stimson, James A. 1999. Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. 2nd edition. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Nov. 21: NO CLASS, UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY Nov. 28: Representation; PAPERS DUE AT THE START OF CLASS Berelson, Bernard. 1952. Democratic Theory and Public Opinion. Public Opinion Quarterly 16(3):313-330. Stimson, James A., Michael B. MacKuen, and Robert S. Erikson. 1995. Dynamic Representation. American Political Science Review 89:543-565. Monroe, Alan D. 1998. Public Opinion and Public Policy, 1980-1993. Public Opinion Quarterly 62:6-28. Monogan, James E., III, Virginia Gray, and David Lowery. 2009. Public Opinion, Organized Interests, & Policy Congruence in Initiative and Noninitiative U.S. States. State Politics & Policy Quarterly 9(3):304-324. Carson, Jamie L., Gregory Koger, Matthew J. Lebo, and Everett Young. 2010. The Electoral Costs of Party Loyalty in Congress. American Journal of Political Science 54(3):598-616. Lax, Jeffrey R. and Justin H. Phillips. 2012. The Democratic Deficit in the States. American Journal of Political Science 56(1):148-166. Monroe, Alan D. 1979. Consistency between Public Preferences and National Policy Decisions. American Politics Quarterly 7:3-18. Erikson, Robert S., Gerald C. Wright, and John P. McIver. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. New York: Cambridge University Press. Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press. Canes-Wrone, Brandice, David W. Brady, and John F. Cogan. 2002. Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members Voting. American Political Science Review 96(1):127-140. Bartels, Larry. 2003. Democracy with Attitudes. In Electoral Democracy, ed. Michael B. MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Grossback, Lawrence J., David A.M. Peterson, and James A. Stimson. 2007. Mandate Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press. Dec. 6 (Thur.): FINAL EXAMINATION, 7:00-10:00pm, Baldwin 302 11