Monitoring data from the Tackling Gangs Action Programme Paul Dawson 1
Summary The Tackling Gangs Action Programme (TGAP) was a six-month initiative, which was announced in September 2007 to target and reduce youth violence, particularly gang-related firearm offences. An additional 1.5 million was allocated to support this work in four cities in England and Wales. The work was conceived against of a backdrop of a number of high-profile fatal incidents involving young people and gangs, and the programme is part of on-going work to tackle this serious problem. Monitoring of the implementation of TGAP found: Analysis of recorded crime data in the TGAP areas showed: o firearms injuries reduced by 51 per cent (from 93 offences in October 2007 to 46 in February 2008) during the period of TGAP s operation, a greater reduction then seen in the same period in the previous two years. o firearm offences overall also showed a decrease during the TGAP period (27 per cent; from 165 offences in October to 120 in February) but there was no clear trend when compared to the previous two years. Respondents who lived in the TGAP areas were statistically significantly more likely to report they had seen more police activity in their own area over the last six months compared with the rest of the country. An analysis of gang members in TGAP areas identified by the police showed they were predominantly young, Black Caribbean and male, often with extensive criminal histories. Characteristics of the gang members varied across different parts of the country, with Liverpool particularly differing from the other three TGAP areas in relation to ethnicity where gang members were predominantly White. 2
Context The Tackling Gangs Action Programme (TGAP) was a six-month initiative, which was announced in September 2007 to target and reduce youth violence, particularly gang-related firearm offences. An additional 1.5 million was allocated to support this work in four cities in England and Wales. The work was conceived against a backdrop of a number of high-profile fatal incidents involving young people and gangs, and the programme is part of on-going work to tackle this serious problem. Background Although recorded firearm crimes are relatively rare, accounting for just 0.3 per cent of all recorded crime, they are not evenly distributed across the country and they disproportionately occur in a handful of geographic regions. The four TGAP force areas (London, Merseyside, West Midlands and Greater Manchester) have the highest levels of firearm crime per head of population in the country and are well above the England and Wales average (Povey et al., 2008). Approach Implementation of TGAP was supported by monitoring activity. Police recorded firearm offences, the characteristics of the target group, (gang members), and the public s perceptions of crime were analysed. Given the short time-frame and absence of well-matched comparison areas, it was not possible to establish a proven connection between the work of TGAP and any changes observed. Findings Early indicative findings from the analysis of police recorded crime The crime data examined were police recorded firearms data for the TGAP neighbourhoods receiving interventions. These data are a proxy for gang-related violence as gang-related crimes are not currently flagged or identified separately in administrative criminal statistics. It should also be borne in mind that the exact proportion of firearm offences linked to gang activity is not known. Knife crime data were not available for all of the TGAP areas. Recorded firearm-related injuries in all TGAP areas Analysis of recorded firearm injuries from the start of TGAP to the end of the programme (defined as October 2007 to the end of February 2008) showed the number of monthly recorded firearmrelated injuries across all four of the TGAP areas had decreased by 51 per cent (from 93 to 46 offences) to its lowest point since October 2005. Note that the numbers involved are small and reductions had also occurred in the previous two years, although to a lesser degree: 25 per cent reduction in 2005/06 (21 offences) and 11 per cent (seven offences) in 2006/2007. (See Figure B14). Recorded firearm-related crime in all TGAP areas Analysis of the number of recorded firearm offences within TGAP areas over time (from September 2005 to the end of February 2008) showed the level of offences fluctuated from month to month and no overall trend was discernible. (See Figure B1). The sum of recorded firearm offences which occurred during the TGAP intervention period (between October 2007 to February 2008) was compared with the sum of offences in the same time period in the previous two years. The findings indicated that there was a decrease in the number of offences, continuing an existing downward trend, which started between 2005/06 and 2006/07 and continued in 2007/08. (See Figure B2). The number of offences per month was also analysed from the start of TGAP interventions to the end of the reporting period and showed a decrease of 27 per cent (from 165 to 120 offences). When the same analysis was repeated for the same time period in the previous two years the findings suggested a mixed picture with no clear overall trend: a 30 per cent reduction in 05/06 (a 3
drop of 45 offences) followed by a small four per cent increase (5 offences) in 2006/07. (See Figure B3). Recorded firearm-related crime in each of the individual TGAP areas When the sum of recorded firearm offences was analysed for each of the four individual TGAP areas, two localities showed a decrease in the number of recorded firearm offences whilst the other two areas showed an increase. On the basis of data available, it was not possible to explain why this was the case. (See Figures B4 to B11). Public perceptions of crime in the TGAP areas and nationally These findings come from the February 2008 Home Office Crime Tracker survey, which measured the public s perceptions of crime and related problems. This survey was targeted at the key areas within TGAP areas suffering from gun and gang crime. Comparisons were made within TGAP areas, and by comparing TGAP to a Great Britain (GB) comparison sample. Respondents who lived in the TGAP areas were statistically significantly more likely to report they had seen more police activity in their own area over the last six months compared with the rest of the country (see Figure B16). TGAP respondents were also more satisfied than their GB counterparts in the handling of crime nationally (31% vs. 22%), although satisfaction rates in respect of tackling gangs locally were the same (36% GB and 35%TGAP). The majority of respondents from the TGAP areas perceived that, over the last six months, young people were at the same or even greater risk of being in a gang or committing a knife or gun related crime (see Figure B17). Nationally, respondents were more likely to report no change. TGAP s target groups: characteristics of gang members identified by the police Key gang individuals were identified within each TGAP area by the police through local intelligence processes. The individuals identified may not be representative of all gang members. (See Table B1 for full details of characteristics). A total of 714 (92%) out of the total 774 gang members identified across the four TGAP areas were matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) and criminal history information was obtained on 655 individuals. The remaining 59 (8%) had no identified criminal history. As with any data source based on official criminal histories, the findings detailed below are likely to underrepresent the full extent of individuals criminal activity. These gang members were predominantly young (mean age 20), Black Caribbean (75%) and male (98% male). These findings are similar to those found by Bullock and Tilley (2002), who used a similar methodology in that they analysed police intelligence information on gangs and those involved in shootings in South Manchester. Characteristics of the identified gang members varied across different parts of the country, with Liverpool particularly differing from the other three TGAP areas. In Liverpool, while the age and gender of gang members was similar to the other areas, gang members were predominantly White. Gang members had relatively extensive and versatile criminal careers. The 655 individuals who were matched to information held on the PNC were responsible for 7,082 known offences with, on average, 11 convictions each (range 1 to 80 offences). The mean age for their first conviction was 15 years. Gang members identified had most commonly been convicted of other summary offences (which includes public order and harassment: 63%), drug offences (62% convicted), violent offending (e.g. assault, wounding including robbery: 62%) and acquisitive offences (theft or burglary: 52%). 4
Of the known gang members, 186 were matched to the Offender Assessment System (OASys) and reliable data, for the purposes of analysis, were available for 147 offenders. OASys data were only available for adults (18 years and over). In terms of risk factors, Education, Training and Employability (74%), Criminal Lifestyles and Associates (71%) and Thinking and Behaviour problems (69%) were the top needs identified from those matched. This is comparable to general samples of offenders (Dawson, 2005). Furthermore, over half (62%) of those matched to OASys had not regularly attended school. In addition, in terms of the matched offenders, the most frequently identified problems were: poor problem-solving skills (86%); impulsivity (85%) and being unaware of consequences (83%). As to criminal lifestyles, the majority (84%) were identified as being easily influenced by criminal associates and as engaging in risk-taking behaviours (84%). Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank Dan James, Perpetuity Research and Consultancy and Ipsos MORI for assistance. Also, Alana Diamond, Robert Street, Cressy MacDonald and the Tackling Gangs Action Programme team members for support. Additional thanks to each of the Police Forces and Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships that contributed greatly to the work. 5
References Bullock, K. and Tilley, N. (2002) Shootings, Gangs and Violent Incidents in Manchester: Developing a crime reduction strategy. Home Office Crime Reduction Research Series Paper 13. Home Office. Dawson, P. (2005) Early Findings from the Prolific and Other Priority Offenders Evaluation. Home Office DPR 46. Povey, P., Coleman, K., Kaiza, P., Hoare, J., and Jansson, K. (2008) Homicides, Firearm Offences and Intimate Violence 2006/07. Home Office Statistical Bulletin 03/08. 6
Appendix B: Additional charts This appendix provides a range of figures providing recorded firearm offences, public perceptions and gang characteristics. Police recorded firearm offences data The charts below show the figures and trends for firearm offences and injuries for all TGAP areas. It should be noted that the offences in the specific TGAP localities may not be representative of recorded firearms offences in each of the police force areas. TGAP recorded firearm offences The following charts presents the trend of all firearm offences for all TGAP areas, and the sum of offences during the TGAP time period compared to previous years. This is followed by equivalent graphs split by each TGAP area, specifically to the neighbourhoods receiving TGAP interventions as opposed to the overall police force area. Figure B1: TGAP firearm offences Figure B2: Sum of offences in TGAP time period 7
Figure B3: Percentage drop from October to February, for the TGAP period and previous years for firearm offences Figure B4: London TGAP firearm offences Figure B5: London TGAP period trends 8
Figure B6: Liverpool TGAP firearm offences Figure B7: Liverpool TGAP period trends Figure B8: Manchester TGAP firearm offences 9
Figure B9: Manchester TGAP period trends Figure B10: West Midlands TGAP firearm offences Figure B11: West Midlands TGAP period trends 10
TGAP recorded firearm injuries The charts below present data on firearm injuries within the TGAP areas: basic trend, sum of injuries over time and percentage drop from the onset of interventions. Figure B12: Firearm injuries in TGAP areas Figure B13: Sum of injuries in TGAP time period 11
Figure B14: Percentage drop from October to February, for the TGAP period and previous years for firearm injury TGAP recorded firearm fatalities The chart below presents data of fatal firearm offences within all the TGAP areas. Figure B15: Fatal firearm incidents in TGAP areas 12
Findings from the Home Office Crime Tracker Survey The chart below presents a table of results from the Crime Tracker, specifically on perceived change of gun, gang and knife crime over the last six months. Figure B16: Percentage of respondents stating they had seen police activity Figure B17: Perceived change in the last six months 13
Known gang member characteristics and criminal activity The table below presents data pertaining to the characteristics of gang members identified by the police within the TGAP areas. Table B1: Table of identified gang-member characteristics London Manchester West Merseyside Total Midlands Total sample (N) 356 76 127 96 655 Mean age 20 20 22 21 20 Mean age first conviction 15 14 15 14 15 % Ethnicity Black Caribbean: 86 87 93 0 75 White 2.5 8 3 96 17 Other 11.5 5 4 4 8 Mean no. of convictions 9 11 12 16 11 % with a youth conviction (<18) 79 78 83 94 82 % that have been convicted of a: Summary offence (excluding 54 68 71 7 63 motoring) Drug offence 63 54 55 76 62 Violent offence (inc robbery) 59 63 73 59 62 Theft 43 50 52 58 48 Summary motor offences 34 36 39 36 38 Burglary 10 16 20 28 15 Acquisitive offence (burglary and 46 55 57 66 52 theft) Criminal damage 12 4 12 19 12 14