Political Research Methods POLS 1600 Spring 2015 Nicholas L. Miller Department of Political Science Brown University Email: nicholas_miller@brown.edu TR, 6:40-8:00 PM Office: Watson Institute 303 Location: CIT 269 Office Hours: Tuesday 2-4 PM, or by appointment Course Description This course serves as an introduction to research methods in political science, with a focus on quantitative techniques. Topics covered include research design, descriptive statistics, statistical hypothesis testing, bivariate and multivariate regression, models for dichotomous dependent variables, and time series analysis. By the end of the course, students will have the requisite skills to intelligently consume and produce basic quantitative social science research. Enrollment is limited to 24 sophomore, junior, and senior Political Science, International Relations, or Public Policy concentrators. Assignments and Grading Students will be evaluated based on five problem sets (10% each, 50% total), class participation (10%), and a final research paper (40%). The dates on which each problem set will be handed out and turned in are listed on the weekly schedule below. Problem Sets Working together on problem sets is permissible; however, each student must write up his or her own answers and Stata code (in other words, no two students final products should be identical). If you worked with other students on your problem set, you must write the names of your collaborators on the top of the solutions you turn in. Hard copies of problem sets must be handed in to me at the beginning of class on the day they are due. Final Research Paper The final assignment for the course is a 15-20 page paper that uses methods learned in the class to answer a research question of the student s choosing. The core components of the paper include (1) a brief introduction that spells out the research question, (2) a brief literature review, (3) a theory or hypothesis that the analysis will test, (4) a description of the data and methods used to assess the hypothesis/theory, (5) the results of the statistical analysis, and (6) a concluding section that discusses the implications of the findings and avenues for future research. On Tuesday 3/10, students are required to submit via email a preliminary one-
page proposal that identifies a research question, hypothesis, and data sources for their topic. Final papers are due by 5 PM on Tuesday, 5/12. Required Books and Software The following two books are required for the course. They are available for purchase at the bookstore or can be bought online. Paul Kellstedt and Guy Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 2 nd Edition (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013). Ulrich Kohler and Frauke Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 3 rd Edition (College Station, TX: Stata Press, 2012). We will be using Stata for statistical analysis in this course. Students can access Stata in three different ways: (1) by using a computer in a university lab, (2) by purchasing Stata at a discounted price through the Grad Plan (http://www.stata.com/order/new/edu/gradplan.html) (3) by downloading Stata from Brown s software distribution website and using it on campus or off-campus through VPN (http://software.brown.edu/dist/) WEEK 1 Thursday, 1/22: Introduction Weekly Schedule WEEK 2 Tuesday, 1/27: Research Questions and Theory Building Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, Ch. 1 Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, Ch. 1, Ch. 2 Thursday, 1/29: Research Design Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, Ch. 3-4
WEEK 3 Tuesday, 2/3: NO CLASS, PROBLEM SET #1 Distributed via Email Thursday, 2/5: Experiments Readings TBA WEEK 4 Tuesday, 2/10: Measurement and Introduction to Stata, PROBLEM SET #1 Due Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 92-114 Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 1-22, 25-38, 41-63 Thursday, 2/12: Descriptive Statistics and Visualization Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 114-124 Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 115-154, 157-199 Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, Income Inequality in the United States, 1913-1998, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, No. 1 (2003): 1-39. WEEK 5 Tuesday, 2/17: NO CLASS, President s Day Weekend Thursday, 2/19: NO CLASS WEEK 6 Tuesday, 2/24: Basics of Statistical Inference Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, Ch. 6 Thursday, 2/26: Bivariate Hypothesis Tests, PROBLEM SET #2 Handed Out Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, Ch. 7 Roy Licklider, The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993, American Political Science Review 89, No. 3 (1995): 681-690.
WEEK 7 Tuesday, 3/3: Finding Data and Managing it in Stata Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 77-112, 395-435 Thursday, 3/5: How to Write Up Statistical Research, PROBLEM SET #2 Due Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 273-293 WEEK 8 Tuesday, 3/10: Bivariate Regression 1 page final paper proposal due via email by 5 PM Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 171-194 Thursday, 3/12: Bivariate Regression, PROBLEM SET #3 Handed Out Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 260-270 Ronald Rogowski, Trade and the Variety of Democratic Institutions, International Organization 41, No. 2 (1987): 203-223. WEEK 9 Tuesday, 3/17: Multivariate Regression: Introduction and Purpose Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 197-217 G. Bingham Powell, Jr. and Guy Whitten, A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context, American Journal of Political Science 37, No. 2 (1993): 391-414. Thursday, 3/19: Multivariate Regression: Mechanics, PROBLEM SET #3 Due Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 270-278 M. Steven Fish, Islam and Authoritarianism, World Politics 55, No. 1 (2002): 4-37. WEEK 10 Tuesday, 3/24-Thursday, 3/26: NO CLASS, Spring Break
WEEK 11 Tuesday, 3/31: Multivariate Regression: Extensions Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 220-231 Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 301-324 Markus Prior, News vs. Entertainment: How Increasing Media Choice Widens Gaps in Political Knowledge and Turnout, American Journal of Political Science 49, No. 3 (2005): 577-592. Thursday, 4/2: Multivariate Regression: Diagnostics, PROBLEM SET #4 Handed Out Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 232-245 Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 279-300 Vipin Narang and Rebecca Nelson, Who Are These Belligerent Democratizers? Reassessing the Impact of Democratization on War, International Organization 63, No. 2 (2009): 357-379. WEEK 12 Tuesday, 4/7: Time Series Analysis, Part I Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 256-269 Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 327-337 Thursday, 4/9: Time Series Analysis, Part II, PROBLEM SET #4 Due Torben Iversen and Thomas Cusack, The Causes of Welfare State Expansion: Deindustrialization or Globalization? World Politics 52, No. 3 (2000): 313-349. WEEK 13 Tuesday, 4/14: Models for Binary Dependent Variables Kellstedt and Whitten, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, 247-255 Kohler and Kreuter, Data Analysis Using Stata, 341-368 Thursday, 4/16: Models for Binary Dependent Variables, PROBLEM SET #5 Handed Out Dan Reiter and Allan Stam, Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory, American Political Science Review 92, No. 2 (1998): 377-389.
James Fearon and David Laitin, Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War, American Political Science Review 97, No. 1 (2003): 75-90. WEEK 14 Tuesday, 4/21: Preview of Advanced Methods for Causal Inference Jason Lyall, Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechyna, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, No. 3 (2009): 331-362. Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti, Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach, Journal of Political Economy 112, No. 4 (2004): 725-753. David S. Lee, Randomized Experiments from Non-Random Selection in U.S. House Elections, Journal of Econometrics 142, No. 2 (2008): 675-697. Thursday, 4/23: Research Paper Workshop, PROBLEM SET #5 Due WEEK 15 Tuesday, 4/28: Research Paper Workshop Thursday 4/30: NO CLASS WEEK 16 Tuesday, 5/5: Research Paper Workshop FINAL PAPER DUE by 5 PM on TUESDAY, 5/12