Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities Presentation to the: Association of Professional Community Planners of Saskatchewan Doug Elliott Tel: 306-522-5515 Sask Trends Monitor Fax: 306-522-5838 444 19th Avenue Email: sasktrends@sasktel.net Regina, Saskatchewan Internet: www.sasktrends.ca S4N 1H1 September 16, 2004 1
Outline General Overview of Provincial Demographics Saskatchewan Cities and urban areas Age and Demographic Characteristics of Urban residents Socioeconomic Characteristics of Urban residents September 16, 2004 2
Provincial Population Saskatchewan Population 1,050 thousands 1,025 1,000 975 950 925 900 875 actual projected 850 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 as of July: Saskatchewan s population is effectively one million people, has been for about thirty years, and is expected to hover near that mark for the foreseeable future. There are lots of changes happening within this stable group of one million people. September 16, 2004 3
Inter-Provincial Migration 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 1971-1972 thousands Inter-Provincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan 1975-1976 1979-1980 1983-1984 1987-1988 July to June: out-migration in-migration 1991-1992 net migration 1995-1996 1999-2000 Declining fertility and longer life expectancy affect the overall population size but the main determinant is interprovincial migration. Inter-provincial migration contributed to population growth in only a few of the past 30 years. A disproportionate number of people leaving the province are young and well educated. Last year, 40% of outmigrants were 20 to 34 years of age; 55% were postsecondary graduates. September 16, 2004 4
Changing Age Structures Saskatchewan Population in July 2003 18,000 16,000 14,000 The older end of the baby boom generation (in their mid fifties) is already contemplating retirement. 12,000 10,000 8,000 echo bust boom 56 years Because of out-migration, we have a smaller bust generation coming behind to replace retiring boomers. 6,000 4,000 2,000 primary labour market age The echo in Saskatchewan is relatively large because of the Aboriginal population. 0 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276 individual years of age September 16, 2004 5
Historical Pattern of Urbanization Urbanization in Saskatchewan 900 800 700 600 thousands non-farm population This is the only longterm measure we have for urbanization in Saskatchewan; a farm/non-farm breakdown. 500 400 300 200 100 farm population In 1951, there were as many people living on the farm as off the farm. By 2001, the ratio of non-farm to farm population was 7:1. 0 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 September 16, 2004 6
Saskatchewan Urban Centres September 16, 2004 7
Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations Saskatoon 196,811 Regina 178,225 Prince Albert 34,291 Moose Jaw 32,131 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Population-wise, these are the four largest centres in Saskatchewan. The figures are from the census and are as of May 2001. September 16, 2004 8
Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations Yorkton Swift Current North Battleford Estevan Weyburn Lloydminster (Sask) Melfort Humboldt Meadow Lake Kindersley Melville Martensville Nipawin Battleford Warman Tisdale La Ronge Assiniboia 5,559 5,161 4,582 4,548 4,453 4,365 4,275 3,820 3,481 3,063 2,727 2,483 7,840 10,242 9,534 15,107 14,821 13,692 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 These are the next eighteen largest centres in Saskatchewan according to their 2001 population. September 16, 2004 9
Population Changes, 1996 to 2001 Martensville Warman Tisdale Lloydminster (Sask) Humboldt Saskatoon Population change from 1996 to 2001 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Only 6 of the 22 largest communities grew from 1996 to 2001. September 16, 2004 10
Population Changes, 1996 to 2001 Yorkton Swift Current Nipawin Regina Prince Albert Weyburn Moose Jaw North Battleford Kindersley Battleford Melfort Melville Estevan Meadow Lake Assiniboia La Ronge Population change from 1996 to 2001-9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% September 16, 2004 11
Changes in the Number of Households Change in the Number of Households Lloydminster (SK) Humboldt Saskatoon Swift Current Yorkton Regina Weyburn Many urban centres with a population decline still have an increase in the number of households. Kindersley Prince Albert North Battleford Moose Jaw Meadow Lake Melville Estevan Melfort Change from 1996 to 2001 This is because households are getting smaller in the sense of the average number of people living in them. -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% September 16, 2004 12
City vs. Census Metropolitan Areas September 16, 2004 13
Census Metropolitan Areas/Agglomeration Areas Statistics Canada uses commuting patterns as a method of determining census metropolitan areas (CMAs) for large cities and census agglomerations (CAs) for smaller cities. These are the communities considered part of the cities for smaller urban areas in Saskatchewan, i.e. CAs: Yorkton - Orkney RM#244, Ebenezer, Springside, Willowbrook Estevan - Estevan RM#5, Bienfait Moose Jaw - Moose Jaw RM#161 Swift Current - Swift Current RM#137 North Battleford - Town of Battleford Prince Albert - Prince Albert RM#461, Buckland RM#491, Wahpaton Reserve September 16, 2004 14
Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Regina Beach Lumsden Pilot Butte Balgonie Pense September 16, 2004 15
Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Langham Dalmeny Martensville Osler Asquith Clavet Colonsay Delisle Allan Dundurn September 16, 2004 16
Population including CMA/CAs Population of Major Urban Centres, 2001 (including surrounding areas) Rest of Sask 413,713 Prince Albert 41,460 Moose Jaw 33,519 Regina 192,800 Other urban 146,495 Saskatoon 225,927 Yorkton 17,554 North Battleford 17,512 Swift Current 16,527 Estevan 12,083 Lloydminster (Sask part) 7,840 September 16, 2004 17
Population Growth for CMAs Population Change, 1996 to 2001 Estevan Moose Jaw North Battleford Yorkton One of the reasons that population has not grown, even in some of the larger centres, is that people are often choosing to live outside the city boundaries. Prince Albert Regina Swift Current Saskatoon Including CMA City Proper This is particularly true in Saskatoon, Swift Current, Regina, and Prince Albert. The opposite is true in Yorkton and Moose Jaw. -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% September 16, 2004 18
Age Characteristics unless otherwise indicated, all of the statistics in the rest of this presentation refer to the 8 largest CMAs or CAs in the province, i.e. Regina, Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Yorkton, Swift Current, North Battleford, and Estevan September 16, 2004 19
Age Distributions in 2001 Age Distribution in 2001 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% percent of population Rural The relative lack of young people in Saskatchewan is more pronounced in rural areas. In urban areas, 15% of the population is 20 to 34 compared with 21% in rural areas. 3% 2% 1% 0% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 Urban 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 plus Seniors are more prevalent in rural Saskatchewan than they are in the cities. Children are more prevalent in rural areas. September 16, 2004 20
Age of Urban Residents Age Distribution in 2001 Saskatoon Regina Prince Albert North Battleford Estevan 21% 20% 23% 22% 22% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 21% 17% Although the differences are small, Swift Current and Yorkton are the oldest cities; Saskatoon is the youngest. Moose Jaw 19% 14% 23% Yorkton Swift Current RURAL AVERAGE URBAN AVERAGE 19% 18% 22% 20% 13% 14% 14% 16% 25% 24% 22% 17% North Battleford and Yorkton have the lowest proportion in the 25 to 59 age group. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 59 60 plus September 16, 2004 21
Other Demographic Characteristics September 16, 2004 22
Aboriginal Identity Aboriginal Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 Swift Current Estevan Moose Jaw Regina First Nation Métis & other Aboriginal There is a huge variation in the proportion of Aboriginal people (self-identified) in cities. Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Yorkton RURAL AVERAGE Prince Albert and North Battleford have the highest percentage; southern cities the lowest. North Battleford Prince Albert 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% The provincial average is 13.5%. September 16, 2004 23
Age of Aboriginal Population Urban Age Distributions in 2001 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% percent of population Unlike the non- Aboriginal population, the Aboriginal population in urban centres is very young. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0-4 years Urban non-aboriginal Urban Aboriginal 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 plus 49% of urban Aboriginals are under 20 years of age compared with 26% of urban non- Aboriginals. September 16, 2004 24
Immigration Immigrant Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Yorkton Prince Albert Estevan Recent (Since 1991) Before 1991 The urban areas have a disproportionate number of the recent immigrants in Saskatchewan (persons born outside Canada). North Battleford Moose Jaw Swift Current URBAN AVERAGE Regina Saskatoon 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% The proportion is still very low compared with other Canadian cities. Recent immigrants are 17% of the population in Toronto and Vancouver; 4% in Winnipeg; 7% in Calgary. September 16, 2004 25
Members of a Visible Minority Group Visible Minority Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Estevan Yorkton Prince Albert Membership in a visible minority group and recent immigration tend to go hand in hand. North Battleford Moose Jaw Swift Current URBAN AVERAGE Regina Saskatoon 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Saskatoon and Regina have the most members; Estevan the fewest. All of the proportions are small relative to other Canadian cities. September 16, 2004 26
Economic Characteristics September 16, 2004 27
Education Completed Education Levels in 2001 Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Regina Prince Albert This chart shows the highest level of completed education among the adult (15 & older) population. Swift Current North Battleford Moose Jaw Estevan Yorkton RURAL AVERAGE 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Education levels tend to reflect economic activity. Higher levels of education are required, for example, in public sector activities - education, health, government. Post-secondary Graduates At least grade 12 September 16, 2004 28
Employment Rates Employment Rate (15 to 64 years) in May 2001 Prince Albert Moose Jaw RURAL AVERAGE North Battleford Saskatoon Yorkton URBAN AVERAGE Regina Swift Current Estevan This is the percentage of the adult (15 to 64) population employed in May 2001. Higher levels of employment tend to mean more prosperity but they can also indicate a shortage of workers. 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% September 16, 2004 29
Employment Growth Growth in Employment, 1996 to 2001 Moose Jaw RURAL AVERAGE Swift Current Estevan Prince Albert North Battleford Yorkton Regina URBAN AVERAGE Saskatoon -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Employment grew in all but one of the urban centres. Moose Jaw suffered from the downsizing of the air forces base. Saskatoon had the largest increase. In the previous five years (1991-96), Saskatoon had the highest growth; employment in North Battleford, Yorkton, and Moose Jaw declined. September 16, 2004 30
Industry Sectors Industry Mix in 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Estevan Swift Current Yorkton Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Regina Moose Jaw North Battleford Prince Albert 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Other goods producing is: utilities; manufacturing; the oil/gas and mining sectors; and construction Public sector services is health and social services, education, and government. Agriculture Private sector services Other goods-producing Public sector services September 16, 2004 31
Income Average Income in 2000 Estevan Regina URBAN AVERAGE Saskatoon Estevan has the highest average income among the cities, Yorkton the lowest. Prince Albert Swift Current Moose Jaw North Battleford Yorkton Individual Household All of the urban centres have higher incomes than the rural average. RURAL AVERAGE $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 thousands September 16, 2004 32
Market Value of Houses Average Market Value of Owner-Occupied Dwellings, 2001 Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Estevan Regina Prince Albert Swift Current Yorkton Moose Jaw North Battleford RURAL AVERAGE Housing costs are much higher in the cities, of course. The average market value of owned dwellings was $112,000 in 2001 compared with $63,000 for rural areas. $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 thousands September 16, 2004 33
Summary Some key statistics affecting urban planners are summarized below. The population of urban centres is growing more quickly than the rural population but this still means many are declining in size. The number of households is increasing more quickly than the population. A relatively large number of Saskatchewan residents are choosing to live just outside the urban areas rather than within the cities. Relative to rural Saskatchewan, residents of urban centres tend to be: more likely to be 20 to 49 years of age, less likely to be 55 or older; more diverse - e.g. members of a visible minority group, recent immigrants, although the Aboriginal population varies significantly by city; with higher levels of employment, education, and income. September 16, 2004 34