CAIMUN 2018 Canada International Model United NAtions DISEC Backgrounder Topic B: Tensions in the Korean Peninsula
Introduction The tensions in the Korean peninsula are the result of a long process of rising conflicts and foreign intervention in the area. After the Second World War, the Korean peninsula became one of many areas that symbolized the struggle between communism and capitalism. During the Cold War, the power in North Korea shifted towards the Kim Dynasty, becoming hostile towards western nations and the United States of America in particular. Over time, the North Korean regime developed into its current state: a recluse, poverty stricken, and militaristic nation with all the power held by a few select officials. Moreover, this regime seems to be fixated on the goal of triumphing over Western nations, among other controversies. However, there have been cases or brief instances of peace in the past. These instances have mainly shown through major breakthroughs in political meetings, such as the Japanese Prime Minister travelling to North Korea 1, or incentivize North Korea to be more conservative through the donation of oil and resources 2 during the term of Bill Clinton on the part of the United States. 3 Unfortunately, as the situation currently stands, the tension is more heightened than ever. The number one opposition to North Korea, the United States, has just installed a hardliner president who preaches American superiority. Although everybody recognizes that North Korea by no means is justified in their development of nuclear weapons and mistreatment of their own citizens, nobody wants a World War. 4 It would be beneficial for delegates to keep in mind that large scale and World Wars can stem from tensions such as these. The goal of the committee, in general, should be to find a resolution to quell these tensions. There is much to discuss, however, for how to achieve this goal in specific terms. Timeline 1945 Japanese occupation of Korea ends with the Soviets taking the North and Americans taking the South 1946-1948 The North Korean communist party emerges with Red Army Trained and Soviet Backed Kim Il Sung as the leader 1950 Beginning of Korean War 1953 End of Korean War 1972 North and South Korea issue a statement of peaceful reunification 1 publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmdfence/writev/intervention/int10.htm 2 www.history.com/topics/korean-war 3 globaledge.msu.edu/countries/north-korea/history 4 www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-15278612 1
1974 Kim Jong-il becomes successor 1985 North Korea joins the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1991 North and South Korea join the United Nations 1993 IAEA accuses North Korea of violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1993 North Korea test fires a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan 1994 North Korea and US sign Agreed Framework 1996 Severe famine spreads 1996 North Korea violates Korean War armistice and sends troops into demilitarised zone 1996 North Korean submarine runs aground near a South Korean town leading to conflict and death 1998 North Korean submarine found in South Korea with crew dead inside 1998 Multistage long-range rocket fired by North Korea 2000 Landmark inter-korean summit 2002 North Korea labelled as part of the axis of evil 2002 North and South Korean Naval vessels wage a gun battle in the Yellow Sea 2002 Japanese PM Junichiro Koizumi makes a visit to North Korea 2002 US and Asian allies Japan and South Korea halt oil shipments based on knowledge that North Korea has been developing a uranium-based nuclear program 2
2002 North Korea announces reactivation of nuclear facilities and expels UN inspectors 2003 North Korea withdraws from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 1992 agreement with South Korea to keep Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons 2005 North Korea states it has made nuclear weapons in self defence 2006 North Korea tests seven missiles which crash 2006 North Korea holds nuclear weapons tests causing UN to impose economic and commercial sanctions 2007 Yongbyon reactor is shut down by North Korea after 50,000 tons of oil are sent as part of an aid package 2007 Second inter-korean summit as South Korean president crosses demilitarized zone 2009 North Korea carries out second underground nuclear test causing UNSC to condemn it 2011 Kim Jong-Il dies and Kim Jong Un takes over power 2012 US announces deal to extend range of South Korean ballistic missiles causing North Korea to announce that it can hit the US mainland 2013 Third nuclear test causing new UN sanctions 2013 China the sole all of the DPRK bans export that could be used for weaponry 2015 DPRK fires during annual US/South Korea military exercises 2016 UNSC tightens sanctions 2017 Pyongyang fires a long range missile that can presumably reach Alaska 3
2017 DPRK threatens to fire near US Pacific territory of Guam 2017 China announces intention to implement hardened UN sanctions North Korean Missile Tests [https://www.statista.com/chart/9172/the-worrying-escalation-of-north-koreas-missiletests/] Historical Analysis Before WWII, North Korea was largely a zone of frequent conflict. From the beginning of 1905 after the Sino-Japanese war, the North Korean area, similar to the rest of the Korean peninsula, was controlled by the Japanese, who tried to supplant Korean language and culture. Eventually, after the Japanese surrender at the end of WWII, North Korea was handed over to the USSR to administer. It was not until 1948 when an official South Korea and North Korea was formed. Over time, South Korea became a capitalist country due to its previous occupation by the United States, while North Korea became a communist country because of China s influence. The Korean War was an extension of the Cold War between the US and USSR. Tensions began to build during the Cold War between the two Koreas as the two superpowers, the Soviet Union and United States, put forward their political and economic ideas in these areas, namely capitalism and communism. The US was very much following the Truman Doctrine by trying to halt the spread of communism in the Korean War from 1950-1953 5 while the Chinese were following a similar agenda to further their own system of government and lessen the influence of democracy in the world. The war established a border between the two countries, unchanged up to the present day. The DMZ was established after the end of the war with an armistice, and the area is a frequent source of conflict today. After the conflict, the power structure in North Korea became 5 www.brookings.edu/articles/understanding-north-korea/ 4
increasingly dominated by the Kim dynasty. This continued to the point at which the Kim dynasty controlled all the positions of importance in the government and created a system in which the political leader had to be revered by its citizens. Gradually, the Cold War ended and these political and economical clashes declined. At the moment, it is noteworthy that the US supports South Korea and China supports North Korea. With the latter partnership, however, it seems that relationships and deals are beginning to fall apart. There have been many instances of conflict surrounding the weapons programs implemented by North Korea. The timeline can be referred to for specific dates, but essentially the conflicts regarding these weapons programs comes out as the following: North Korea creates a weapons program that is contested by the international community, sanctions and such are placed by the United Nations, a Treaty then is signed, aid is given to North Korea and the DPRK then gives in, until it is found that North Korea is secretly still developing weapons, and the cycle starts all over again. During these times of UN occupation or aid, the UN and many Western countries have classified this level of cooperation between the West and the DPRK as peace. For example, there have been brief cases of other countries leaders visiting North Korea or international discussions occurring in the country. 6 Yet, this seemingly peaceful image does not tell the full story of North Korea s international relations. 7 Specifically, what is important to mention is the DPRK s testing of their weapons. Often, these weapons test have failed in the past with North Korea tending to overestimate its own ability. 8 The historical cycle mentioned above may be slowly coming to an end, with the difference lying in reduced Chinese opposition in the sanctioning of North Korea. One should take into account the vast amount of famine, poverty, and hardlined control that exists in North Korea. The population is strictly monitored in the DPRK and are not given a variety of basic human rights. While the North Korean government displays its population as having a organized and contemporary society and infrastructure, the reality is that the DPRK is a severely underdeveloped nation that uses a vast amount of its already limited resources to be able to show such displays. Moreover, the education system in North Korea is based upon glorifying the nation state and demonizing the United States and its Western allies. This idea is ingrained into the North Korean population from birth not only through their education system but through rampant propaganda and censorship as well. It is not the North Korean population that is hostile, but the power that controls them from above. Current Situation The situation at hand with the Korean peninsula seems to currently be at the height of its tensions. The United States is the country that is probably the most involved in various international disputes, stemming from its notable activity in the Cold War. After all, there are still thousands of US troops in the area along with a military force - the seventh fleet. In addition, the US also has forces in Japanese territory, allowing them to be closeby to any possible confrontation. There are also military exercises carried out by South Korea, America, and Japan in the event of a North Korean retaliation. However, this foreign occupation and cooperation may be coming to a close. The new president of America, Donald Trump, has shown a different stance on the matter. 6 www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/ 7 web.stanford.edu/class/e297c/war_peace/asia/hbrian.html 8 apjjf.org/2017/19/hayes.html 5
Advocating for an America first policy, he seems to want the countries the US is protecting, namely South Korea, to pay for and supply its own protection. The South Korean government, of course, is against this policy and has been trying to negotiate with the US. Moreover, president Trump has been outright and blatantly hostile towards North Korea, berating the DPRK for its actions and condemning its notorious weapons testing. The international community is also somewhat divided on this issue. The UN, however, reflecting on its past actions, seems to be moving towards a stance of increased sanctions and punishments for the DPRK. Nobody in this day and age wants a full scale war to break out, especially due to the threat of nuclear weapons. Without doubt, the massively militaristic nature of North Korea is a cause for concern, and there have been many successful weapons tests on the part of North Korea. Currently, these weapons only have a range of around a maximum of 2500 km, which is enough to strike countries like South Korea and Japan. Previous tests involving Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) have all seemed to fail as the range is much longer. A very pertinent threat in this situation is the possibility of war. There have been some sources, and even experts, that label the Korean peninsula as a potential cause for WWIII. In fact, many similarities exist between this scenario and the beginning of the first and second world wars. In both World Wars, it was one area of conflict with a large degree of international attention that erupted, that had caused both wars. It is the job of DISEC to maintain good international communication to ensure that a World War Three does not occur. In one form or another, the main goal may be to avoid large scale conflict but not give in to any of the threats of the DPRK and coerce them with force or aid to halt their hostile actions. Over the past few years, the sanctions and punishments upon the DPRK have been increasing. 9 For the citizens of the DPRK, however, this only means that they have been experiencing even more poverty and famine. It is again important to note that North Korea has a powerful government that is controlling the minds of the people with explicit propaganda. It is not the citizens themselves who are loyal to North Korean policy at heart, but the government propaganda is making them act so. Internally, North Korea in some places is in fact very urbanized, but is still mostly consisting of the countryside or slums. For the past few years, China has been somewhat backing North Korea, whether its stance is to defy the United States of America or to support another communist regime. However, even China in recent times has turned its back on North Korea (more often than not) and incorporated many of the resolutions proposed by the United Nations. However, points of contention involving China is is the THAAD missile program which the US and South Korea both are trying to install. The THAAD missile program is a weapons system that grants long distance information gathering and striking powers to its owner. Installing this weapons system in South Korea may be extremely beneficial for security purposes, but at the same time, it may be another fuse to set off even more conflict. China has explicitly stated that it, in no way or form, wants this THAAD missile program to be operational in South Korea due to concerns about China s own privacy and 10, 11, 12, 13 safety. 9 qz.com/1120809/donald-trumps-stop-in-south-korea-is-a-reminder-of-how-little-control-the-nation-has-over-itsown-fate-when-it-comes-to-north-korea/ 10 qz.com/1120809/donald-trumps-stop-in-south-korea-is-a-reminder-of-how-little-control-the-nation-has-over-itsown-fate-when-it-comes-to-north-korea/ 11 asia.nikkei.com/politics-economy/economy/vietnam-and-japan-would-be-among-hardest-hit-by-a-korean-conflict 12 www.cnn.com/specials/asia/north-korea 13 www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/asia/china-north-korea-border/index.html 6
Food Aid in North Korea [https://www.slideshare.net/pdk23071987/the-political-economy-of-north-korea] Another aspect of the tensions in the North Korean peninsula is the stream of defectors and illegal immigrants arising from this area. The reason for these illegal immigrants lies in the obvious desolate and poor living conditions that exist in North Korea, along with the rampant human rights violations that have been reported. These conditions are very much a facet of this topic and the methods to improve North Korean living standards must be discussed thoroughly. 14 Not only is the general population struggling with basic needs but the people have also been instilled with a very hardline and anti-western ideology from birth. The refugee crisis from North Korea is relatively small, yet poorly handled by many countries, with the isolation and strict border security held by North Korea limiting the size of this refugee crisis. Yet, there still are many illegal immigrants and defectors who leave North Korea every year. Recently, there a North Korean defector who was trying to cross the South Korean border was shot by his former comrades. In addition, one commonly overlooked problem is that many families are still split by the border as it is today. Although this problem may seem small on the large scale, small social problems such as these in such a high conflict area can result catastrophically if left unchecked. 15 UN/International Involvement In recent history, there have been multiple discussions regarding the Korean peninsula, resulting in a near-constant amount of attention focussed on the issue. Since 2005, there have been resolutions every year to deal with the human rights violations in North Korea. In addition, the UNSC, EU, and individual nations have all imposed strict sanctions on North Korea either restricting, capping, or outright banning valuable and necessary products such as oil, petroleum, industrial metals, arms, and many more. In addition, there is a travel ban for virtually all people coming out of North Korea to most members states in the United Nations. In terms of discussions, numerous committees in the United Nations such as UNICEF, UNHCR, SPECPOL, and of course DISEC, hold sessions both indirectly and directly regarding the DPRK. 14 www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/avoiding-nuclear-conflict-on-the-korean-peninsula/ 15 apjjf.org/2017/19/hayes.html 7
Most notably, the United Nations Security Council has taken a large interest into North Korean affairs. In the last two years alone, the UNSC has produced eight resolutions, the two most recent being responses to weapons tests in September and December of 2017. In these latest resolutions, the UNSC unanimously voted to severely tighten their restrictions and sanctions on North Korea. Yet, it is paramount for delegates to remember that the United Nations has essentially been following a cycle of tightening sanctions, loosening them, and then tightening them again once North Korea takes part in something significant to do with weapons. Although, as mentioned above, this cycle seems to be moving towards the point of simply elevating the sanctions, it is still beneficial for delegates to keep in mind that there should be discussion on alternative solutions other than simply sanctioning North Korea. It should be noted that there is a DPRK representative in the United Nations as well. 16 Potential Solutions There have been many attempts to quell the tensions in North Korea. All of which, in one way or another, have failed to bring a complete solution to the problem. This is most notably because of the multifaceted nature of the problems in North Korea. To illustrate, there have been attempts to tackle the humanitarian, environmental, political, and environmental crimes being committed in the DPRK. 17 The solutions proposed below are some possible ideas for the betterment of the situation. Delegates are reminded, however, to take these solutions with a grain of salt and not copy them, but use them or combine them in a multifaceted approach into bringing peace to the Korean peninsula. Create a Line for Communication So far regarding discussions with the DPRK, there has only been minimal real communication between the DPRK and the rest of the world. This is in part because of North Korea s historically isolationist and anti-western policy and ideology. This line of communication can be compared to the USSR and US line made after the disaster that was the Cuban Missile Crisis. A line of communication can be something as simple as a literal hotline between Western States and North Korea. This line of communication may even progress to be a creation of a platform, very much so like DISEC itself, dedicated to having regular diplomatic relations with the DPRK. With such lines of communication, it would be much easier for both parties to negotiate their ideas and come to some sort of agreement instead of making threats and speeches against each other all the time. Completely Halt Import/Export in the DPRK Combined with making clear guidelines and consequences for actions, the UN could essentially come together and halt all exports and imports coming out of and going into North Korea. However, the main problem is the fact that while such action may ultimately make North Korea s isolationist totalitarian regime suffer, forcing them to rely on other ways to get resources, it will no doubt harm the citizens of the DPRK. In addition, there is also no guarantee that such a complete halt will even work due to the nature of the UN, as countries must bring the resolutions proposed into their own legislative bodies of government. Possibly the largest roadblock for this course of action is China, who is by far DPRK s largest trading partner. Reluctance to support a complete ban on trade from China would most likely result in an ineffective solution, as they are the only other country that shares a land border with North Korea. In the end, however, this method may be an effective means, even if not fully enacted, to stop the DPRK s hostile actions. 16 globaledge.msu.edu/countries/north-korea/history 17 www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/war-korean-peninsula-inevitable-170916090447726.html 8
NGOs Non-government organizations can be imperative in bringing a difference in North Korea when looking from the humanitarian and environmental point of view. These organizations can be especially effective because North Korea is looking to keep other nations out of their territory. Thus, although it will by no means be easy, it will still be easier for NGOs to gain access to the 18, 19 DPRK and provide assistance in whatever way they can. Bloc Positions Western States Western States generally support the idea that North Korea is being too hostile towards other nations and must be brought down. These countries openly disagree with the methods the DPRK has been using to develop their weapons programs and blame North Korea for the worldwide tensions it is causing. In addition, these countries also are strongly against the humanitarian and environmental crimes that North Korea is committing. Most countries from this bloc have thus followed all the resolutions proposed by the United Nations so far. Countries Allied in Some Way or Form to the DPRK (China, Russia) The countries in this bloc are largely opposed to Western States. They do not agree with the Western States that are allied with the United States and their methods of getting the better of North Korea by criticizing their tendency to not accept other systems. Thus, these countries have quietly been supporting the DPRK by supporting materials or arms. Currently, however, these countries seem to be increasingly leaning towards the stances of the Western States due to the open hostility and conflict that North Korea has been causing to the world. Other The rest of the world may simply not really have a stance at all. That is, they either do not have the time and resources to spend with the problem or feel that the tensions in the North Korean peninsula do not concern them much at all. Countries in this bloc will likely offer their support for a specific side but may voice their opinions and beliefs about the matter in order to move the committee to take certain actions, since it has been established that conflicts such as these can turn into bigger ones virtually overnight. Ultimately, the utmost priority of these nations would be to prevent further conflict and diffuse the current tension as much as possible, while keeping in line with their foreign policies and maintaining alliances. Thus, they may not offer readily support to either side but simply advise the committee and put forth ideas that will offer long term solutions to the problem. Discussion Questions 1. What is the cycle of affairs when dealing with the DPRK? 2. Is there a possibility of WWIII? 3. Who are the major players on both sides besides South Korea and North Korea and why? 18 asia.nikkei.com/politics-economy/economy/vietnam-and-japan-would-be-among-hardest-hit-by-a-korean-conflict 19 www.bbc.com/news/business-41495718 9
4. How does one curb the militarism of North Korea and ensure the safety of innocent local civilians in the testing or use of nuclear weapons? 20 5. How should countries react if North Korea ever chooses to preemptively strike militarily? 6. What are some ways to prevent a retaliatory strike from North Korea if the UN or any other nation was to strike first? 7. What would happen if a massive internal conflict such as a coup occurred in North Korea? 21, 22 8. Did the recent olympic games in Pyeongchang have an effect on these tensions? Further Resources https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=x9sn_ SpWmiYC&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=north+korea&ots=pzDReOGztZ&sig=QIoGMC4yMO1_ foywyetirxkxwlm#v=onepage&q=north%20korea&f=false https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=qfkragaaqbaj&oi=fnd&pg=pr9&dq=nort h+korea&ots=8nk-w1vwtk&sig=d7zaqppez2mfhasuinubk5hhu2w#v=onepage&q=no rth%20korea&f=false https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=yevozcvvq9ec&oi=fnd& pg=pr7&dq=north+korea&ots=1s4dmsn-dj&sig=ygdwqhiudkiojj_ JVVInZNEztFs#v=onepage&q=north%20korea&f=false https://www.ncnk.org/sites/default/files/issue-briefs/dprk_diplo_relations_august2016.pdf https://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/15/world/asia/kaesong-korea-complex-reopens/ https:// www.theguardian.com/world/2005/feb/10/northkorea https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/06/asia/north-korea-asean/index.html Bibliography Disarmament and International Security (First Committee). UN General Assembly, www.un.org/en/ga/first/. Donoghue, Brian. War & Peace: Asia in the Global Community. North Korea: Past, Present, and Future of Foreign Relations, web.stanford.edu/class/e297c/war_ peace/asia/hbrian.html. Gillespie, Alexander. War on the Korean Peninsula Is Not Inevitable. War & Conflict Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 16 Sept. 2017, www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/warkorean-peninsula-inevitable-170916090447726.html. Griffiths, James, and Serenitie Wang. Is China Reinforcing Its Border with North Korea? CNN, Cable News Network, 26 July 2017, www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/ asia/china-north-korea-border/index.html. Hass, Ryan, et al. Avoiding Nuclear Conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Brookings, Brookings, 17 Jan. 2018, www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/avoiding-nuclearconflict-on-the-korean-peninsula/. 20 www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/asia/china-north-korea-border/index.html 21 www.bbc.com/news/business-41495718 22 www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/world/asia/olympics-opening-ceremony-north-korea.html 10
Journal, The Asia Pacific. The Future of Conflict in the Korean Peninsula and Beyond: The War Dreams of Kim and Trump. The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, Data Momentum, 1 Oct. 2017, apjjf.org/2017/19/hayes.html. Korean War. History.com, A&E Television Networks, 2009, www.history.com/topics/ korean-war. Mollman, Steve. Trump s Visit to South Korea Is a Reminder of Who Has True Control When It Comes to North Korea. Quartz, Quartz, 5 Nov. 2017, qz.com/1120809/ donald-trumps-stop-in-south-korea-is-a-reminder-of-how-little-control-thenation-has-over-its-own-fate-when-it-comes-to-north-korea/. North Korea: History. >> GlobalEDGE: Your Source for Global Business Knowledge, globaledge.msu.edu/countries/north-korea/history. North Korea News. CNN, Cable News Network, 8 Dec. 2014, www.cnn.com/specials/ asia/north-korea. North Korea. Nuclear Threat Initiative - Ten Years of Building a Safer World, Mar. 2018, www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/. North Korea Profile - Timeline. BBC News, BBC, 9 Jan. 2018, www.bbc.com/news/ world-asia-pacific-15278612. Oh, Kongdan. Understanding North Korea. Brookings, Brookings, 28 July 2016, www. brookings.edu/articles/understanding-north-korea/. Rich, Motoko. Olympics Open With Koreas Marching Together, Offering Hope for Peace. The New York Times, The New York Times, 9 Feb. 2018, www.nytimes. com/2018/02/09/world/asia/olympics-opening-ceremony-north-korea.html. Vaswani, Karishma. What s the Economic Impact of a Korean Conflict? BBC News, BBC, 4 Oct. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/business-41495718. The World Factbook: KOREA, NORTH. Central Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, 22 Feb. 2018, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/kn.html. Yuda, Masayuki, and Tomomoi Kikuchi. Vietnam and Japan Would Be among Hardest Hit by a Korean Conflict. Nikkei Asian Review, 4 Oct. 2017, asia.nikkei.com/ Politics-Economy/Economy/Vietnam-and-Japan-would-be-among-hardest-hitby-a-Korean-conflict. 11