Regional Integration and Trade in Africa

Regional Integration and Trade in Africa

Regional Integration and Trade in Africa Edited by Mthuli Ncube Senior Research Fellow, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford (on leave from the African Development Bank) Issa Faye Manager of the Research Division, African Development Bank Audrey Verdier-Chouchane Chief Research Economist, African Development Bank

African Development Bank 2015 Individual chapters Respective authors 2015 Foreword Gilbert Mbesherubusa 2015 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-46204-1 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan areregisteredtrademarksintheunitedstates, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-69031-2 ISBN 978-1-137-46205-3 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9781137462053 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Regional integration and trade in Africa / [edited by] Mthuli Ncube, Chief Economist and Vice President, African Development Bank Group, South Africa, Issa Faye, Manager of the Research Division, African Development Bank, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane, Chief Research Economist, African Development Bank. pages cm Summary: Regional integration has been adopted by many African governments as a response to difficulties facing national markets in landlocked countries. However, despite the aspiring targets they have experienced setbacks due to poor implementation. This book reviews the current trends, challenges and potential benefits of regional integration and trade in Africa, in a context of rising interest and momentum among African leaders on the topic. This study explores the many facets of regional trade, its implementation gaps and positive effects through empirical studies covering various African sub-regions and using different theoretical approaches. It analyses trade performance against full potential, its mitigated impact on the competitiveness, industrialization and economic diversification of African countries as well as the much debated effect of monetary unions on regional trade in the region. It provides valuable policy recommendations aimed at stimulating the debate among the government, private sector and development community on the ways to promote regional trade for Africa s economic development. Regional Integration and Trade in Africa examines various aspects of regional integration and trade in Africa, and will be of interest to scholars, students, researchers, policy-makers, and professionals Provided by publisher. 1. Africa Commercial policy. 2. Africa Commerce. 3. Africa Economic integration. 4. Africa Foreign economic relations. I. Ncube, Mthuli, 1963 II. Faye, Issa, 1972 III. Verdier-Chouchane, Audrey, 1973 HF1611.R437 2014 337.1 6 dc23 2014028329

Contents List of Figures List of Maps List of Tables Foreword by Gilbert Mbesherubusa Acknowledgments Notes on Contributors List of Acronyms vii viii ix xii xiv xv xxi Introduction: Understanding Africa s Regional Trade 1 Mthuli Ncube, Issa Faye and Audrey Verdier-Chouchane Part I Intra-African Trade Performance and Regional Integration 1 Competitiveness and Integration through Trade in CEMAC Countries: Comparative Advantage and Contribution to the Trade Balance 17 Joseph Parfait Owoundi 2 Economic Integration, Trade Facilitation and Agricultural Exports Performance in ECOWAS Sub-Region 31 Wumi Olayiwola, Evans Osabuohien, Henry Okodua and Oluyomi Ola-David 3 The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Export Growth and Import Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 47 Lanre Kassim Part II Measuring Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach 4 Market Integration in the ECCAS Sub-Region 71 Désiré Avom and Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam v

vi Contents 5 Regional Integration and Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1993 2010: An Augmented Gravity Model 91 Edris Seid Part III Industrialization Strategy and the Issue of Deindustrialization 6 Malawi s Trade Policies, Market Structure and Manufacturing Performance, 1967 2002 111 Hopestone Kayiska Chavula 7 The Impact of South-South and North-South Trade on Industrialization in Africa 125 Henri Atangana Ondoa and Henri Ngoa Tabi Part IV Impact of Currency Union on Trade 8 Impact of Monetary Unions on Trade: The Case of WAEMU 153 Ibrahima Camara 9 Trade Agreements and Flows in ECOWAS: Is a Single Currency the Determining Factor? 173 Benjamin Ndong and Sokhana Diarra Mboup 10 A DSGE Model of Trade and Risk-Sharing Effects of Currency Union on Economic Integration of the CFA Zone 197 Thierry Kame Babilla Conclusion: Enhancing Intra-African Trade through Regional Integration 218 Mthuli Ncube, Issa Faye and Audrey Verdier-Chouchane Index 229

Figures I.1 Africa s membership of selected regional economic communities in 2014 3 I.2 Africa s top trade partners in 2012 (%) 4 I.3 Intra-African trade between 1995 and 2011 4 I.4 Intra-African trade by selected RECs over 2007 2011 (% total trade) 5 2.1 ECOWAS global exports and imports, 1999 2009 (USD millions) 32 2.2 ECOWAS intra-regional exports and imports as percent of its global trade 32 3.A.1 Definition and sources of variables 65 4.1 Total trade within communities, percentages of total trade 75 4.2 Average trade within communities 1995 2010 (USD millions) 76 4.3 Exports and imports within ECCAS, averages in USD thousands 77 4.4 Total ECCAS trade with partners (USD thousands) 78 5.1 Shares of goods exports by world region, 2000 2010 93 6.1 Price cost margins and manufacturing output growth rate trends 1967 2002 115 6.A.1 Clemente-Montañés-Reyes unit-root test with double price cost margin s mean shifts, AO model 123 8.1 Trade balance 2000 2009 for WAEMU s countries (CFAF millions) 160 8.2 WAEMU s marginal effects on exports 165 8.3 Share of exports within WAEMU and to Africa 167 9.1 Export trends by region 176 9.2 Import trends by region 176 10.1 Impulse response functions to a negative productivity shock in CEMAC (dashed) and WAEMU (solid), years 211 10.2 Impulse response functions to a negative monetary shock in CEMAC (dashed) and WAEMU (solid), years 212 10.3 Impulse response functions to negative public-spending shock in CEMAC (dashed) and WAEMU (solid), years 213 C.1 Africa s comparative performance 226 vii

Maps C.1 Regional development corridor projects in Africa (2013) 222 viii

Tables 1.1 The global competitiveness of CEMAC and WAEMU countries 25 1.2 Revealed comparative advantages (RCA) of CEMAC countries in CEMAC and WAEMU markets 26 1.3 Contribution to trade balance indicators (CTBi) of CEMAC countries in the CEMAC regional market 27 2.1 Effects of ECOWAS regional integration and trade facilitation on agricultural trade, 2003 2008 39 2.A.1 Table of summary statistics 43 3.1 Average export and import growth before and after liberalization 50 3.2 Trade liberalization and export growth (random effects) 53 3.3 Trade liberalization and export growth (GMM) 55 3.4 Timing impact of trade reforms on export growth 56 3.5 Trade liberalization and import growth (fixed effects) 58 3.6 Trade liberalization and import growth (GMM) 59 3.7 Timing impact of trade reforms on import growth 60 3.8 Comparing results 63 3.A.1 Classification of countries 64 3.A.2 Import growth regression with foreign aid 66 4.1 ECCAS exports and imports in 2009, percentages by product 77 4.2 Gravity model estimations (1995 2010) 82 4.3 Average trade flows within ECCAS 1995 2010 (USD millions) 84 4.4 Trade potential within ECCAS 1995 2010 (USD millions) 86 4.A.1 List of sample countries 88 5.1 Africa s goods exports by type, 2001 2010 (%) 93 5.2 African economic communities import sources, 2000 2010 average (%) 94 5.3 Intra-regional as percent of global exports by regional economic community, in USD millions, 2001 2010 95 5.4 Variable descriptions 101 5.5 PPML estimation of augmented traditional gravity model (N = 30,503, paired 1,793) 102 ix

x List of Tables 5.6 PPML estimation of Anderson van Wincoop gravity model with time-varying fixed effects for countries and year (N = 31,477) 103 5.A.1 Countries included in the gravity model byregional economic community 105 6.1 Malawi s trade policies and manufacturing growth, 1964 2004 112 6.2 Effects of trade policies and market structure on manufacturing price cost margins, 1967 2002 118 6.A.1 Variable definitions 122 7.1 Descriptive statistics 129 7.2 Contribution of external and internal factors to industrialization 133 7.3 Contribution of external and internal factors to development of manufacturing industries 135 7.4 Contribution of trade with countries in transition to development of manufacturing industries in Africa 138 7.5 Contribution of trade with countries in transition to industrial development in Africa 140 7.A.1 Added value of manufacturing industries and trade openness in Africa 144 7.A.2 Industrial value added and trade openness in Africa 146 8.1 Coefficients of WAEMU and WAEMU1 variables, from cross-section analysis 166 8.A.1 Coefficients from cross-analyzes, 1990 2005 169 9.1 African exports and imports, 2011 177 9.2 Intra-African trade by economic zone in 2011, percentages of total exports 179 9.3 Comparative trend of intra-zone trade as percent of total exports of the economic zones concerned 180 9.4 ECOWAS Least Developed Countries (LDC), export effort and ratio of exports to GDP 180 9.5 Expected signs 185 9.6 Results of estimation on cross-sectional data with OLS on averages 186 9.7 Results of estimation using panel data 2003 2012 187 9.A.1 Trend in exports of goods by region 190 9.A.2 Trend in imports of goods by region 191 9.A.3 Intra-African trade by economic zone in 2011, percentages of total imports 192

List of Tables xi 9.A.4 Exports and imports of ECOWAS Least Developed Countries (LDC), in millions of USD 193 10.1 Calibration of household, producer and retailer program parameters 207 10.2 Calibration of commercial bank and central bank program parameters 208 10.3 Calibration of government program plus shock parameters 208

Foreword Regional integration has been at the core of Africa s development efforts since independence some 50 years ago. For the continent s leaders, economic integration was the means by which Africa would address its economic frailty and stake claim to the global trade and investment worthy of its size and strategic importance in the world. The Abuja Treaty of 1991, for example, embodies such sentiments. While the benefits of integration are lauded at summits, the process of integration has been very slow and complicated by many obstacles, ranging from language barriers to differences in political economy. Inarapidly globalizing world, Africa is once again taking a close look at what can be done to advance its integration agenda and especially to expand trade in goods and services. This book argues that regional integration and associated trade flows are crucial for inclusive growth and development. But trade-boosting economic integration will not happen by itself. It will be important to establish flourishing economies with supportive infrastructure at national levels and for countries to be willing to cede some of their sovereignty on issues such as regional trade to supranational entities. This has proved difficult to implement in the past. In other parts of the world,the road to integration and greater tradevolumes was paved with the establishment of effective customs unions and common markets. Free trade areas are important for attracting foreign direct investment, promoting technology transfers and enhancing regional competition. At the same time, they help to dismantle tariff and non-tariff barriers, reduce distortions and raise economic welfare. Africa s existing regional economic communities have made some progress in encouraging countries to allow freer movement of goods and services and to harmonize trade policies, but the continent as a whole still records extremely low levels of intra-regional trade. Africa will have to do much more to harness the opportunities offered by regional integration for trade and development. This book is based on the presentations made at the African Economic Conference on Regional Integration in Africa, held in Johannesburg in November 2013, and sponsored by the African Development Bank, Economic Commission for Africa and the United Nations Development Programme. The book attempts to place the challenges of regional xii

Foreword xiii integration and trade within broader policy and practical contexts, looking carefully at some of the solutions available. The chapters provide comparative discussions of the challenges and look at the many opportunities that Africa s abundant resources and large population provide for trade expansion and welfare enhancement. A good measure of both theoretical and empirical tools is used in the presentations in each chapter. I am confident that the book will have important impacts on debates about economic integration and trade in Africa by offering pointers to the solutions needed to bring countries, and the continent as a whole, up to speed in meeting the aspirations of its leaders and people. I would, therefore, like to recommend the book to policymakers, researchers and practitioners in economic development and other readers interested in development issues of the day as an additional tool in their endeavors to ensure that Africa is not left behind in this era of rapid globalization. Gilbert Mbesherubusa Former Vice President, Infrastructure Private Sector and Regional Integration African Development Bank

Acknowledgments This book brings together a selection of articles presented at the 2013 African Economic Conference (AEC) in Johannesburg, South Africa, under the theme Regional Integration in Africa. The articles have been reviewed and selected by the African Economic Research Consortium and enriched by comments from peer-reviewers, discussants and rapporteurs at the conference. The book s authors thank Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa, Director of the Development Research Department and Acting Chief Economist and Vice President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), for his comments and reviewing, as well as Charlotte Karagueuzian for her excellent research assistance. Our appreciation also goes to Andrew Lawday and Rick Wicks, who helped to edit the English version of the book. We are very grateful to the AfDB Language Services Department for assisting in the translation of articles from French to English. The AEC 2013 provided a unique opportunity for policymakers and researchers, including from the diaspora, to interact and debate critical policy issues affecting Africa. This conference would not have been possible without the full support and leadership of the African Development Bank s President, the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa and the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. It also depended largely on the many staff members of these institutions who dedicated their time and energy to making the conference a success. Their contributions are greatly appreciated. Not least, we are extremely grateful to the researchers, who submitted their papers and made presentations at the AEC 2013, for their highquality contributions. We sincerely hope this publication will further stimulate debate and shape policy around regional integration and trade in Africa. xiv

Contributors Désiré Avom is Professor of Economics at the University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon. He is the Director of the Laboratoire d Analyse et de Recherche en Economie Appliquée (LAREA) and the Director of the Centre d Etudes et de Recherche en Economie et Gestion (CEREG) at the University of Yaoundé II. He is an expert in the areas of International Economics and Economic Integration. Désiré Avom has published several articles in international journals such as Ecological Economics, Revue d Economie Politique and Revue Française d Economie. Thierry Kame Babilla is a researcher at the Centre d Etudes et de Recherche en Economie et Gestion (CEREG), University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon. His areas of interest are Macroeconomics and Economic Modeling. From 2014, he has been a member of the scientific committee of the Association Femmes et Développement (AFED) and a Research Fellow at the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) Network and at the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). Babilla was laureate of the International Development Research Center Doctoral Research Awards in Economics in 2012. Ibrahima Camara is currently working as a statistician in the department of research, at Guinea s central bank. He completed a training program in statistics and Economics at the Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d Economie Appliquée (ENSEA) in Abidjan in 2011. His research interests include African regional integration, education, civil registration and vital statistics, remittances from migrants, industrialization and the ITCs (Information Technology and Communications) sector. Hopestone Kayiska Chavula works as an economist in the Macroeconomic Policy Division (MPD) of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Before 2013, he worked at the same organization s ICT, Science and Technology Division (ISTD). Before that, he was a lecturer in both Economics and Computer Sciences at the University of Malawi. Chavula holds a PhD in Economics, an MA in Economics, and a Bachelor sin both Economics and Computer Sciences. xv

xvi Notes on Contributors Issa Faye is Manager of the Research Division of the African Development Bank (AfDB). Prior to joining AfDB, he worked as an economist at the World Bank in the Research Department and the Rural Development Network of the Africa Region. Prior to this, he was a lecturer at the University of Auvergne/CERDI, France, from where he received a PhD in Economics, and a researcher at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS). Lanre Kassim is a research student at the University of Kent, United Kingdom, working on the impact of trade liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, he analyzes how the adoption of freer trade has affected export growth, import growth, balance of payments and tax revenue in the region. His primary research interests are the economics of development, growth models and international trade. His secondary research interests are applied Micro-econometrics and Public Economics. Kassim obtained his Master s in international finance and economic development with a distinction from the University of Kent and his Bachelor s in Economics from the University of Lagos Nigeria. Gilbert Mbesherubusa was Vice President for Infrastructure, Private Sector and Regional Integration of the African Development Bank between 2012 and 2014. He has held, throughout his career at the AfDB, several key positions. Prior to joining the Bank in 1982 as a civil and transport engineer, Gilbert concurrently worked as an Engineer/Director and as a part-time lecturer at the University of Burundi between 1978 and 1982. He holds a certificate in transport economics from Université d Eté de Lyon (France) and is a graduate of civil engineering from the Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium). Sokhna Diarra Mboup is a PhD student in Economics and a member of the research team in Economics at Gaston Berger University, Saint-Louis, Senegal. Her thesis is on the impact of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) s trade reforms on economic growth, poverty and well-being. She obtained her Master s and Bachelor s in Economics from the same university. Her research interests are in international economics, international trade and regional integration, development economics and poverty reduction. Mthuli Ncube is on leave from the post of Chief Economist and Vice President of the African Development Bank. He is now Senior Research

Notes on Contributors xvii Fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government in Oxford, United Kingdom. He holds a PhD in Mathematical Finance from Cambridge University, UK. Before joining the Bank, he was Dean at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) and before that was Dean and Professor of Finance at Wits Business School in South Africa. He has published widely in the area of finance and economics. He also has extensive experience as an investment banker. Benjamin Ndong is Professor, Head of the Department of Economics (2009 2013), Coordinator of the Master s program in Rural Development and Cooperation and Coordinator of the Master s program in Banking and Financial Econometrics at the University Gaston Berger of Saint Louis, Senegal. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Franche-Comté (France). He has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a member of the following research teams and networks: the Africa Growth Institute in Cape Town, South Africa; the Centre for the Study of African Economies at the University of Oxford, UK; and the African Economic Research Consortium in Nairobi, Kenya. Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam is aphd candidate in Economics at the University of Yaoundé II in Cameroon. He is a researcher at the Laboratoire d Analyse et de Recherche en Economie Appliquée (LAREA). His areas of research include international trade, economic geography, economic integration and sustainable development. He has participated in the African Economic Conference in Johannesburg in October 2013 and the biannual workshop at the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) in December 2013 in Nairobi, Kenya. Henri Ngoa Tabi is Head of the Department of International Economics at the Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon. He obtained his PhD at the University of Versailles in 1999. Prior to this, he headed the Centre d Etudes et de Recherche en Economie et Gestion (CEREG) at the University of Yaoundé II. As part of his mission in CEREG, he led several research projects in partnership with international organizations, including the United Nations Development Programme, the Economic Commission for Africa, the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the African Economic Research Consortium, Trust Africa, the International Development Research Centre, Afrobarometer, Rio Tinto Alcan and the African Development Bank.

xviii Notes on Contributors Henry Okodua is a lecturer in Economics at Covenant University, Nigeria, and has conducted research on African economics and development since 2004. Previously, he worked as a regional consultant to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission and contributed to the production of a technical report on Investment Climate Monitoring Indicators in ECOWAS countries. Okodua holds a PhD in Economics and is a member of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), African Econometric Society (AES) and United Nations Conference on Trade & Development (UNCTAD) virtual institute. Oluyomi Ola-David is a PhD candidate and lecturer in the Department of Economics and Development Studies, Covenant University, Nigeria. Her research investigates the productivity effects of foreign direct investment in developing countries, and her interests include the economics of innovation, industrial learning and sustainable development. During a recent internship at the UN-Habitat, she coordinated discussions on urbanization, cities and sustainable development toward the post-2015 development framework. She is an alumnus of Brown University s International Research Institute on Technology and Entrepreneurship Management and a member of the Association for the Advancement of African Women Economists. Wumi Olayiwola is Principal Programme Officer of the Economic Policy Analysis Unit, Department of Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Research, ECOWAS Commission, Abuja, Nigeria. He is also a faculty member of Trade Policy Training Centre in Africa (TRAPCA), Arusha, Tanzania. Prior to this, he was a consultant to the World Bank and a Research Fellow to the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) and Trade Policy Research Training Programme (TPRTP), Nigeria. Olayiwola holds a PhD in Economics with specialization in International Trade, Development Economics and Macroeconomic Analysis. Henri Atangana Ondoa is a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon, and Researcher at the Centre for Studies and Research in Economics and Management of the same university. He obtained his PhD in Economics in 2009 at the University of Yaoundé II in collaboration with the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). He has participated in several impact

Notes on Contributors xix studies with the following agencies: United Nations Development Programme, International Development Research Centre, Economic Commission for Africa, Rio Tinto Alcan. He has realized several internshipsin the following international organizations: the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the Center for Research in Economic Analysis. He has attended several international conferences. Evans Osabuohien is currently a research fellow at the German Development Institute, Bonn, with a fellowship awarded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. He holds a PhD in Economics from Covenant University, Nigeria. His other awards include the Swedish Institute s Guest Doctoral Fellowship, the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa s (CODESRIA) grant for his PhD thesis, First Prize for FLACSO-WTO Award and research grants from the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) as well as from the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). He is currently editing a book provisionally titled In-Country Determinants and Implications of Foreign Land Acquisitions. Joseph Parfait Owoundi works at the Ministry of Economy, Planning and Regional Development in Cameroon. He holds a Master s in Demography and Statistics and is a PhD candidate at the Institute of Population Research and Training (IFORD), University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon. His areas of interest include population and development, maternal and child health and the economics of human resources. He has published in several journals such as Statistics and Computing and IFORD. Hehasparticipated in international conferences, such as the annual meeting of the Population Association of America in 2014 and the annual African Economic Conference in 2013. Edris H. Seid is a junior research fellow at the regional independent think tank, the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Prior to this, he was a lecturer at Addis Ababa University. He has a double MSc in Economic Development and Growth from the University of Warwick, the United Kingdom, and Lund University, Sweden. He has also MSc in International Economics from Addis Ababa University. His research interests are international trade, regional economic integration, development economics, poverty and economic growth with particular emphasis on Africa.

xx Notes on Contributors Audrey Verdier-Chouchane is Chief Research Economist in the Development Research Department of the African Development Bank. Prior to joining AfDB, Audrey taught Macroeconomics and Development Economics at the University of Nice, France, from where she received a PhD in Economics. She has mainly published on the analysis and measurement of poverty and inequalities.

Acronyms ACP ADMARC AfDB AG AMU ASEAN BCEAO BEAC BOP BRIC CEMAC CEN-SAD CET CFA CFAF CIS CMA COMESA CTB DC DfID DOT DPM DRC DSGE EAC ECCAS ECOWAP ECOWAS EMU African, Caribbean and Pacific Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation African Development Bank Group agricultural exporters Arab Maghreb Union Association of Southeast Asian Nations Banque centrale des Etats de l Afrique de l Ouest (Central Bank of West African States) Banque des Etats de l Afrique Centrale (Bank of Central African States) balance of payments Brazil, Russia, India and China Communauté économique et monétaire de l Afrique centrale (Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa) Community of Sahel-Saharan States common external tariff Communauté Financière Africaine (African Financial Community) Franc de la Communauté Financière Africaine (African Financial Community Franc) Commonwealth of Independent States Common MonetaryArea Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa contribution to trade balance developing countries Department for International Development Data on Trade [statistics] dynamic panel model Democratic Republic of the Congo Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium East African Community Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS Agricultural Policy Economic Community of West African States European Monetary Union xxi

xxii List of Acronyms EPA ETLS EU FDI FE FGLS FTA GATT GCI GDP GFCF GMM H-O ICT IGAD IIAG IMF ITC LDC Mercosur NAFTA NAG OCA OECD OLS PIDA PPML RCA RE REC RI RTA SACU SADC SAP SEZ SSA TF TP TSLS Economic Partnership Agreement ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme European Union Foreign Direct Investment fixed effects Feasible Generalized Least Squares free trade area General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Global Competitiveness Index gross domestic product Gross Fixed Capital Formation generalized method of moments Heckscher-Ohlin Information and Communications Technology Intergovernmental Authority on Development Ibrahim Index of African Governance International Monetary Fund International Trade Centre Least Developed Countries Mercado Comum Sudamericano (South American Common Market) North American Free Trade Agreement non-agricultural exporters optimum currency area Organization of Economic Cooperation Development ordinary least squares Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood revealed comparative advantages random effects regional economic community regional integration regional trade agreement South African Customs Union Southern African Development Community structural adjustment programs Special Economic Zone Sub-Saharan Africa trade facilitation trade potential two-stage least squares

List of Acronyms xxiii UNCTAD UNECA WAEC WAEMU WAMZ WDI WEF WGI WTI WTO United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations Economic Commission for Africa West African Economic Community West African Economic and Monetary Union West African Monetary Zone [World Bank s] World Development Indicators World Economic Forum [World Bank s] World Governance Indicators [World Bank s] World Trade Indicators World Trade Organization