from adversarial crisis to mutualistic renewal

Expertise and Democracy from adversarial crisis to mutualistic renewal Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre University of Sussex www.steps-centre.org/ www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/ www.multicriteria-mapping.org www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513 a keynote talk for conference of Melbourne School of Government, A Crisis of Expertise? Legitimacy and the challenge of policymaking University of Melbourne Friday 16 th February 2018

Crisis of Expertise : Expertise? undermining? This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop

Crisis of Expertise : or entrenching? we'll restore science to its rightful place the Government s strategy is pro-innovation Our hope relies on scientific and technological progress Lisbon Strategy for: pro-innovation action One can not impede scientific progress. this government's approach is to make decisions on the basis of sound science climate change means: put democracy on hold for a while democracy as the enemy of nature

Expertise: as much about justification as veracity? Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis

Expertise: as much about justification as veracity? Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low RISK high externality : c US /kwh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

Expertise is as much about justification as veracity Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis n = coal oil gas nuclear minimum 25% 75% maximum 21 hydro wind solar biomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low RISK high externality : c US /kwh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

Expertise is as much about justification as veracity sound science, evidence based analyses can justify many policies n = coal 36 oil 20 gas 31 nuclear 21 hydro 16 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low RISK high externality : c US /kwh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

Expertise is as much about justification as veracity sound science, evidence based analyses can justify many policies but are typically invoked misleadingly to prescribe a single decision n = coal 36 oil 20 gas 31 nuclear 21 hydro 16 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low RISK high externality : c US /kwh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

All Expertise is Socially Framed and Constituted equally true of interpretive expertise or of claims to reflexivity

Are Expertise / Democracy Dynamics 1-D, Zero-Sum? too often, all sides of debate see truth (both epistemic & ontological) as if always necessarily singular, rather than plural & conditional

Are Expertise / Democracy Dynamics 1-D, Zero-Sum? Just because many differing representations are equally true, does not mean that anything goes or some views aren t just plain wrong

Are Expertise / Democracy Dynamics 1-D, Zero-Sum? Expert performance of definitive singularity is easier with ontological distance Double hermeneutic: justification helps drive epistemic hierarchies in expertise

Definitive Ideas of Expertise Reinforce Incumbency Aggregation and reduction parameterise imaginations different possible institutional trajectories eg: - singular bottom line - simple solutions - sound science - evidence based policy Subverting of appreciations for complexity, uncertainty, context-sensitivity, multiple framings and diverse options

Singular Expertise Compounds Economic Lock-ins Restricts deep questions of direction merely to rate or risk eg: - techno-fixes - supply control - product mixes - IP intensity - securitisation - big pharma - agri-biotech - nuclear power whatever side is taken; even just idea of speaking for science asserts that there is no alternative in directions for progress

Even Critical Expertise can also Entrench Power Even the sustainability transition often singular & top-down - models - missions - handbooks - manuals - road maps Contrast: open, plural emergent actualities of transformation

Sustainability: Explicit Normativity in Expertise social equality human wellbeing ecological integrity Emphasising: citizen participation & greater democracy social equality environmental integrity SUSTAINABLILITY human wellbeing In a sense, can be seen as: a second enlightenment Articulates agency not just over rate, also direction of material or other progress expert / value relations escape 1-D zero sum to be fractal, plural & conditional

Sustainability is Rooted in Counter-Expertise Even the most specific environmental issues, all initially vigorously resisted pesticides asbestos radiation lead carcinogens CFCs EDCs

Sustainability is Rooted in Counter-Expertise And innovations now mainstream were initially excluded and suppressed organic farming wind turbines super-efficiency closed cycle production Constituting problems as well as solutions of Sustainabilty depend on assertively mobilising both resistance and alternatives

Even in SDGs: Expertise is Plural and Conditional embodiment of non-zero sum relations between expertise & democracy pluralities of expertise enabled as much within as between agendas re-asserts conditionalitiess in epistemologies, ontologies & normativities

Sustainability Puts Expertise in Rigorous Context Humility: knowledge and expertise are plural and conditional maintaining optimal Holocene conditions Highlights collective agency, political struggle and choice as constituting salience of expertise; basis for (not on) evidence

But Even Sustainability Expertise is Instrumentalised Anthropocene planetary management non-negotiable control variables of the Earth absolutely no uncertainty no compromise humanity as a control force expertise as means to domination

But Even Sustainability Expertise is Instrumentalised A control discourse leading to planetary geoengineering? maintaining optimal Holocene conditions

Practices to Defend Transdisciplinarity in Expertise A multiplicity of institutional practices for opening up can help resist closure help collective action reconcile crisis in democratic expertise closing down opening up INPUTS quantitative / analytic (things (aspects that taken are into taken account into within account) Pro practice of research or appraisal) narrow problems, options, pros / cons, interpretive / issues, deliberative blems, uncertainties, options, pros / perspectives cons, issues, uncertainties, perspectives broad OUTPUTS (aspects that are conveyed outwards into wider discourse) Plural conditional conclusions if X then A if Y then B

Practices to Defend Transdisciplinarity in Expertise INPUTS A multiplicity of institutional practices for opening up can help resist closure help collective action reconcile crisis in democratic expertise closing down OUTPUTS opening up quantitative / analytic interpretive / deliberative narrow broad cost-benefit analysis risk assessment stakeholder negotiation scientometric mapping consensus conference participant observation structured interviews citizen s juries citizen s interactive juries modelling decision analysis open hearings intervention futures innovation histories PIPA critical narratives extended foresight participatory sensitivity analysis system histories q- method multi-site ethnographicmethods concurrent evidence plural photovoice participatory appraisal multicriteria mapping open space

The Dance between Expertise and Power INPUTS From speaking truth to power to speaking about power : - resisting how power tries to shape truth closing down OUTPUTS opening up narrow broad cost-benefit CONTROLLING ANALYSIS open analysis hearings risk assessment structured optimising t interviews models engineered consensus interactive modelling consensus conference narrative-based participant observation citizen s juries extended foresight decision analysis participatory rural appraisal sensitivity analysis sustainability eg: multicriteria spot-thenarrative mapping mapping multi-site ethnographicmethods dissenting opinions q-method multi-criteria deliberative mapping scientometric open space mapping CARING ATTENTION

The Dance between Expertise and Power INPUTS From speaking truth to power to speaking about power : - resisting how power tries to shape truth closing down OUTPUTS opening up narrow broad innovation histories system histories intervention futures PIPA q- method plural photovoice participatory sensitivity analysis participatory appraisal multicriteria mapping open space

Talk About Power in Closures of Expertise INPUTS A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure closing down OUTPUTS opening up narrow MULTIDISCIPLINARITY expert / analytic - enquiry structured hierarchically - impressive scope, reassuring applicability - authority through integration participatory / deliberative eg: integrated assessment global panels broad

Talk About Power in Closures of Expertise INPUTS A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure closing down OUTPUTS opening up narrow INTERDISCIPLINARITY expert / analytic - enquiry structured by collaboration - attention targeted on focal problem - authority thro fidelity in addressing complexity participatory / deliberative eg: collaborative networks multiple partnerships broad

Talk About Power in Closures of Expertise INPUTS A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure closing down OUTPUTS opening up narrow TRANSDISCIPLINARITY expert / analytic - enquiry reflects wider extant framings - flexible to divergent contexts - authority thro salience and legitimacy participatory / deliberative eg: co-designed with stakeholders broad

Robust Expertise Means Knowledge Democracy Science itself began with some aspects of an anti-authoritarian social movement eg: 1660s Royal Society of London for Improving Natural Knowledge motto: nullius in verba (~ not on authority ) 1990s the Royal Society mission: promoting excellence in science Secular dynamics of succession in hegemonic means to justification?

Options Robust Expertise Means Knowledge Democracy sound science pro-innovation, evidence based reductions are unscientific! specific tech technological lock-in knowledge economy IIIIII $ narrowed in technical assessment risk regulation closed down instrumentalised politics risk risk

options perspective ss Robust Expertise Means Knowledge Democracy second enlightenment : agency not just on rate, but direction of progress possible paths multiple feasible Innovation trajectories letting go diversity, disrupition, experiment innovation democracy broadening out social appraisal choice discourse opening up democratic politics risk risk Sustainability