Are Republicans Sprawlers and Democrats New Urbanists? Comparing 83 Sprawling Regions with the 2004 Presidential Vote Stephen L. Sperry Associate Professor Clemson University College of Architecture, Arts and Humanities Department of Planning and Landscape Architecture Clemson, South Carolina, USA sperrys@clemson.edu
Introduction Show a General Method for Constructing Density- Equalizing Vote Display Examine the Relationship Between Sprawl Development and the Election Winner by County and Sprawl Region USDA urban/rural codes Compared the 83 most sprawling regions As defined by Measuring Sprawl and Its Impact Quantitative Analysis of How Population Relates to Political Ties 2
Media and Academic Response to the Election Before 2000 Rarely Heard the Terms Blue States or Red States Started with the 2000 election Used over 2500 times in the media in 2003 (Numberg, 2005) Became a standard in today s reporting Media Wants to Typecast or Use Simple Explanations Compartmentalize the analysis Academics Used Stereotype Analysis Republicans are sprawlers or The Republican party s base is primarily exurbia or rural 3
Characteristics of Sprawl Unlimited Outward Expansion of Development Low Density Residential and Commercial Settlements Widespread Strip Commercial Development Leapfrogging Development Dominance of the Private Automobiles for Transportation Source: Robert Burchell, The Costs of Sprawl-Revisited. Transportation Cooperative Research Program Report 39, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 4
New Urbanism New Urbanism Respects Traditional Urban Form and Is Defined by Principles Opposite of Sprawl: Denser development, walkable neighborhoods, mixed land use, community involvement and alternative transportation 5
So Where Were the Votes? Los Angeles County Was the Largest Concentration of Bush Votes with 954,764 votes All the surrounding counties went to Bush Cook County was Bush s second highest concentration with 580,553 votes Kerry received over 700,000 more votes in each county Kerry Lost Dallas by Less Than 10,000 votes All the surrounding counties went for Bush In Houston Kerry received over 470,000 votes for his 6 th largest total Came within 100,000 votes of Bush Are We Politically Segregated? 6
Election Maps The Sea of Red The Typical Election Chloropleth Map Does Not Reflect True Voting Patterns States are unequal in area Gives a false impression of Bush s vote distributions Over 60% of the states 53% of the electoral vote 51% of the popular vote So What Is the Best Map to Show the Voting Distribution? Source: www.cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/election/ Source: the Associated Press, ESRI Inc. USATODAY analysis by Paul Overberg Source Robert Vanderbi, Princeton University http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/java/election2004/ 7
Issues with the Color Ramps and Densities Solid Colors Do Not Reflect Vote Distribution in a County Shades of Purple Are Difficult To Read Warm and Cool Grays Are Easier to Understand Closer to the center the color ramp are shades of gray Warm gray for Bush Cool gray for Kerry How Can We Show Where the People Are? Clark County population verses county size 8
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Population and Votes Merged Population Density by Census Tracts with Bush s Voting Percentage Shows where the concentrations of the voters actually occurred Classification Centers on Base Data of Less Than two People per Square Mile Highest population centers is approximately 9,000 for Bush and 90,000 for Kerry The Resulting Map Shows Spatially Accurate Voting Density 11
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Sprawl Analysis The Vote s Spatial Distribution Between 2000 and 2004, There Was a Net Shift of Nearly 4 Million Votes for Bush (USA Today, 2004) Used the Rural-Urban Continuum Codes Developed by Calvin Beale of the USDA's Economic Research Service (USDA, 2003) A classification scheme that categorizes metropolitan counties by size Non-metropolitan counties classified by degree of urbanization and proximity to metro areas Also Compared the Vote in Ewing s et al Top 83 Sprawling Regions (Ewing, 2003) 13
Urban/Rural Codes and Sprawl Regions 14
National Metropolitan Vote Analysis Number of Counties Bush Votes Kerry Votes Nader Votes Bush Margin Bush Percentage Percent of Bush's Total Vote Percent of Kerry's Total Vote Percent of Total Vote Code Description Metro counties: 1 Counties in metro areas of 1 million population or more 413 27,736,596 31,816,697 181,972 (4,080,101) 46.4% 46.5% 56.7% 51.4% 2 Counties in metro areas of 250,000 to 1 million population 325 12,450,410 10,924,349 87,780 1,526,061 53.1% 20.9% 19.5% 20.2% 3 Counties in metro areas of fewer than 250,000 population 351 6,934,487 4,979,517 47,440 1,954,970 58.0% 11.6% 8.9% 10.3% Nonmetro counties: 4 Urban population of 20,000 or more, adjacent to a metro area 218 3,607,318 2,522,126 22,918 1,085,192 58.6% 6.0% 4.5% 5.3% 5 Urban population of 20,000 or more, not adjacent to a metro area 105 1,336,202 964,734 11,555 371,468 57.8% 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 6 Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, adjacent to a metro area 609 3,837,788 2,500,736 23,150 1,337,052 60.3% 6.4% 4.5% 5.5% 7 Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, not adjacent to a metro area 450 2,162,112 1,408,603 16,753 753,509 60.3% 3.6% 2.5% 3.1% 8 Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, adjacent to a metro area 235 660,647 456,055 4,809 204,592 58.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 9 Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, not adjacent to a metro area 435 971,202 564,950 10,455 406,252 62.8% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% - Total/Average 3,141 59,696,762 56,137,767 406,832 3,558,995 51.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15
Voting Comparison The Top Three Categories Accounted for 82% of the Nation Vote Bush received 79% and Kerry got 85% of their total votes Kerry had nearly a 600,000 vote margin Except in the most urban category, Bush won the other eight codes His vote margin percentage increased as a category became more rural from 46.5% to 62.8% The Republican Concentration Is in the Urban Areas of Less Than One Million People Accounted for 79% of Bush s vote margin Bush Received Nearly 33% of his net Vote Gain From the Mediumsized Metro Areas and Counties in the Metro Area with Less Than 250,000 Bush received over 3,500,000 more votes than Kerry. Except for the Most Urban Concentration, Both Candidate's Vote Percentage Were With 2 % of Each Other Showing that both candidates can attract votes in every urban-rural codes 16
Measuring Sprawl and Its Impacts (Ewing, 2003) Investigated 22 Measures Sprawl Index Was Defined by Four Factors: Residential density; Neighborhood mix of homes, jobs, and services; Strength of centers, such as business districts; and Accessibility by the street network. The Study Was Limited to 83 Regions Original 101 regions Because of metro comparability for the four factors Missing Charlotte, NC; Nashville, TN; Louisville, KY and Richmond, VA 17
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Sprawl Regions Vote Analysis Number of Counties 2000 Population Population Per Square Mile Nader Votes Bush Margin Bush Percentage Percent of Bush's Total Vote Percent of Kerry's Total Vote Code Description Total Area Bush Votes Kerry Votes Metro counties: 1 Counties in metro areas of 1 million population or more 308 220,120 142,389,744 646.9 25,949,259 30,529,534 176,083 (4,580,275) 45.8% 81.1% 84.6% 82.9% 2 Counties in metro areas of 250,000 to 1 million population 88 78,021 24,105,787 309.0 5,108,793 4,871,816 42,743 236,977 51.0% 16.0% 13.5% 14.7% 3 Counties in metro areas of fewer than 250,000 population 16 13,507 2,469,338 182.8 617,979 497,878 5,250 120,101 55.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% Nonmetro counties: 4 Urban population of 20,000 or more, adjacent to a metro area 14 21,377 1,176,765 55.0 298,809 185,492 2,515 113,317 61.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 5 Urban population of 20,000 or more, not adjacent to a metro area 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6 Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, adjacent to a metro area 3 18,799 87,963 4.7 22,678 17,247 157 5,431 56.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 7 Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, not adjacent to a metro area 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8 Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, adjacent to a metro area 1 185 16,803 90.7 5,144 2,739-2,405 65.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9 Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, not adjacent to a metro area 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - Total/Average 430 352,009 170,246,400 483.6 32,002,662 36,104,706 226,748 (4,102,044) 46.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Percent of Total Vote 20
Top 83 Sprawl Regions Accounts for Over 50% of the Nation s Population Top Three Urban-Rural Categories Accounted for Over 98% of the Vote for Each Candidate in These Regions Kerry Won the Most Sprawling Regions In The Country In the top three categories, Kerry s margin was over 4,200,000 votes Bush carried five of the six categories but with closer margins than the country vote outside the sprawl regions In Fringe or Exurban Counties of These Regions, Bush Improved his Winning Margin These exurban areas contain far fewer people than the central counties Bush received only 8% of his vote from these counties 21
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Sprawl Regions by Sprawl Index & Bush s Vote Margin 300,000 100,000 Fort Worth - Atlanta, Arlington, GA TX Dallas, TX PMSA Oklahoma City, OK MSA Houston, TX PMSA Cincinnati, OH - KY - IN PMSA Anaheim Santa Ana, CA PMSA Salt Lake City - Ogden, UT MSA Phoenix, AZ MSA Colorado Springs, CO MSA Omaha, NE - IA MSA Bush's Vote Margin (100,000) (300,000) (500,000) (700,000) West Palm Beach Boca Raton Delray Beach, FL MSA Detroit, MI PMSA Cleveland, OH PMSA Washington, DC MD VA MSA Los Angeles Long Beach, CA PMSA Fort Lauderdale Hollywood - Pompano Beach, FL Portland, OR PMSA Philadelphia, PA NJ PMSA Chicago, IL PMSA Boston - Lawrence - Salem - Lowell - Brockton, MA (900,000) (1,100,000) New York, NY PMSA (1,300,000) Most Sprawling Regions Least Sprawling Regions 24
Voting Summary Table 4: Candidate Win Summary for 83 Sprawling Metropolitan Regions Metropolitan Region Mean Sprawl Index Regions Counties Bush Counties Bush % Bush Kerry Nader Total Votes Bush Margin Bush % Bush Region Wins 91.9 37 201 177 88.1% 13,700,922 10,153,334 49,723 23,903,979 3,547,588 57.4% Kerry Region Wins 106.5 46 229 105 45.9% 18,301,740 25,951,372 177,025 44,430,137 (7,649,632) 41.4% Totals 100.0 83 430 282 65.6% 32,002,662 36,104,706 226,748 68,334,116 (4,102,044) 47.0% Table 5: Voting Analysis Summary for 83 Sprawling Metropolitan Regions Metropolitan Region Regions Overall Sprawl Score Counties Bush Counties Bush Kerry Nader Bush Margin Bush % Top15 Regions 15 135.6 68 28 5,404,837 7,767,517 74,690 (2,362,680) 41.0% Middle 53 Regions 53 99.7 279 188 20,810,427 23,048,833 125,676 (2,238,406) 47.4% Bottom 15 Regions 15 65.3 83 66 5,787,398 5,288,356 26,382 499,042 52.3% Total 83 100.0 430 282 32,002,662 36,104,706 226,748 (4,102,044) 46.8% Table 6: National Voting Analysis Summary Metropolitan Region Counties Bush Counties Total Votes Percent Bush Kerry Nader Bush Margin Bush % Kerry 60% Margin 178 0 23,834,388 20.5% 7,560,232 16,200,549 73,607 (8,713,924) 31.7% Middle Votes 1232 827 60,006,035 51.6% 30,338,260 29,426,769 241,006 670,485 50.6% Bush 60% Margin 1732 1732 32,475,405 27.9% 21,825,034 10,557,941 92,430 11,174,663 67.2% Total 3142 2559 116,315,828.00 100.0% 59,723,526 56,185,259 407,043 3,131,224 51.3% 25
Where are the Votes? Mapped Each Party s Vote Density Separately The seven vote density classes were based on quantile breaks of the Republican vote and were rounded The Democratic vote used the same class breaks The difference is that the density range is higher in the last Democratic class 139,552 verses 49,287 The Vote Distributions Are Similar Between the Parties The Republicans spread out further from the urban cores then Democrats The Exception Is the Southern Republican Concentration of Votes Expanding From the Appalachian Mountain Region With its small cities and expanding to the more metropolitan areas of North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. 26
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Vote Concentrations Shades of Purple As Robert Vanderbi Says We Are Shades of Purple Urban Centers Are the Primarily Democratic Base However there are significant Republican concentrations Smaller Cities and Suburban Centers Are the Republican Base There are significant Democratic concentrations The Exurban Fringe Are Ripe Republican Camps New growth areas The exception is in the Northeast 31
Population Density by Urban/Rural Code Code Bush Pop Density Kerry Pop Density Approximate Ratio 1 297.9 1,204.1 1:4 2 138.4 294.1 1:2 3 84.4 87.1 1:1 4 63.3 63.5 1:1 5 29.6 52.1 1:2 6 28.9 21.7 1.1 7 10.0 16.8 1:2 8 5.4 20.0 1:4 9 4.5 11.0 1:2 32
Conclusion Are Republican Sprawlers? The Answer is Yes and No Exurbia, the fringe and less dense counties of large metropolitan areas, contributed 8% of Bush's vote Remember how many votes he received in Los Angeles and Chicago Are Democrats New Urbanists? The Answer is the Same The Democratic concentration is in the older and most urban areas They are within one to two percentage points of the Republicans distribution in the other categories Bush's Victory Was Attributable to Modest, but Broadbased Gains Across Every Region of The Country Including the cities Comparing the Republican and Democratic Vote Density The Country Is Not Polarized Into Two Camps 33